Fallout on South Asia from US presidential poll result

What does the future hold for South Asia in general and Sri Lanka in particular by way of regional political developments, now that the majority of US voters have voted Democrat Joe Biden to the foremost political position of the land? This is a current preoccupation of many knowledgeable political observers of this region.

In the view of some sections, the winner of the presidential poll is yet to formally emerge clearly in view of incumbent President Donald Trump’s ‘legal’ objections to the election’s outcome but it is plain to see that Joe Biden is the clear choice of the majority of US voters. Loss of power is a most bitter, undrinkable curative pill for many losers in politics and the reason for Trump’s blind opposition to the election result ought to be crystal clear.

Numerous are the Heads of State and Government the world over who develop megalomaniacal traits while in power and this seems to be the case with Trump as well. Apparently, publics everywhere need to put in place arrangements or ‘mechanisms’ that will ensure that the most stable of minds will be in politics and governance.

It is also relevant to point out that those states that are awaiting some sort of ‘legal clearance’ of the Biden election should engage in some soul-searching to find out whether needless legal niceties come before people and their heart-felt needs. If they see the needs of people as irrelevant, they would need to read all over again Marx and Lenin, lest they stand the latter on their heads.

However, on the question of what the US presidential poll result has in store for South Asia, it could be said right away that it is unthinkable that US policy for this region would change substantively overnight as it were. This is mainly on account of the fact foreign policies essentially serve countries’ national interests and, as matters stand, US interests in South Asia will not change to any notable degree in the short and medium terms. Accordingly, US policy towards the SAARC Eight, for example, is unlikely to change drastically in the foreseeable future.

Right now, the majority of the countries of South Asia need the US and vice versa. They and the US will have a mutual interest in relating to each other on the basis of current policy parameters and this will ensure some stability in inter-state ties. For example, it is difficult to see a Biden administration pushing Sri Lanka extra hard on war crimes and accountability matters although one would hear some periodic, ritualistic US admonitions to Sri Lanka on this score, along with reminders that ‘reconciliation’ and the like must be pursued by Sri Lanka.

Likewise, the MCC accord and other like US policy instruments that have seemingly maddened ultra-nationalist sections over the past few years in Sri Lanka would be pushed through by a Biden administration, although unobtrusively, with a clear understanding of the domestic compulsions weighing on Lankan governments. Mutual need is the key to understanding these future developments. To express it plainly and bluntly, Sri Lanka has and will be a neo-colony of the West for the foreseeable future. It does not have a choice but to succumb to these demands because economic vulnerabilities and compulsions are a great dictator.

In US-India relations too, no substantial changes could be foreseen. Under a Trump administration, US-India ties were notably strengthened and rendered vibrant and a Biden administration could be expected to strongly perpetuate this link. As could be seen, the international power balance in the Asia-Pacific would make this a must for both countries. China’s rise is a major matter of concern for both countries and this factor too could not be wished away in the foreseeable future.

In fact, US-India ties came to be substantially boosted in the Obama years, when a US ‘Pivot to Asia’ was seen as essential; first, to counter China and second, to make the best use of the Asia-Pacific’s proliferating economic opportunities. This process could be expected to strengthen in the days ahead. Meanwhile, India would emerge as the US’ strongest ally in South Asia. To the degree to which China strengthens its relations with Pakistan, to the same extent would the US distance itself from Pakistan.

The primacy accorded to India by the US in South Asia will make it incumbent on India’s neighbours to strengthen their bonds of cordiality with India. These ‘dynamics’ would need to be taken into consideration by India’s neighbours if they are to get the most out of their ties with the US. To be sure, they would also relate on the best of terms with China, but they would need to do some tight rope walking between the US and China. Balanced relations with current major powers will emerge as an imperative for South Asia’s smaller states in consideration of the economic power and influence wielded by China and the US. Thus, the basic parameters in these smaller states’ relations with the major powers will likely remain.

In its relations with Europe and Britain, a Biden administration is likely to introduce a greater degree of cordiality with bridge-building gaining in importance. These ties were greatly undermined during the Trump years as a result of the US tilting towards a policy of isolationism. The world would see some changes on this front which would be interpreted by the West as positive.

The abrasive style of Trump would be replaced by Biden by one of greater friendliness and openness to the world. Even US-China ties are likely to be on the mend, although the US would continue to pursue its self-interest with some intensity on this front as well and work towards what it considers as a ‘rule based’ international political and economic order. Vice President Kamala Harris would not be out of step with her administration on these questions but would be at one with it in consideration of the primacy of US interests.