Business
Economic stakes of the 2024 presidential election
As Sri Lanka gears up for elections, policymakers must avoid rash economic promises that risk a decade of lost growth and an era of relative decline.
As too often in the past, Sri Lanka appears not to have broken its damaging tendency towards ‘competitive populism’ ahead of elections. Fiscally profligate promises ranging from wage increases to loan write-offs and welfare handouts are being made in a bid to win votes. Such pledges often come with a hefty price tag that the country can ill afford, especially given its still fragile economic recovery.
The choices for Sri Lanka on the economic front are starkly clear: a) proceed along the agreed International Monetary Fund’s Extended Fund Facility (IMF-EFF) programme fiscal targets and timelines; b) rehash tax and spending at the margin without materially altering EFF targets and commitment; and c) discontinue the current EFF programme and renegotiate afresh. The choices made will determine what the enduring effects of the 2022 economic crisis will be.
Even the fact that such options are a matter of discussion points to an irrefutable fact: harsh austerity in the midst of a deep economic crisis hurts, and it hurts the neediest most.
The austerity measures – tax increases, wage freezes, subsidy removals – implemented so far have helped rebuild fiscal buffers, restore monetary stability and revive economic growth. In the process, though, both policymakers and the public have been called on to make sacrifices. For the former, implementing unpopular economic measures is never easy. The latter, despite a decline in incomes and living standards, have been mostly resigned in the hope of seeing their economic conditions improve over time. Those improvements have partly materialised, albeit rather slowly. Those who fell into poverty have been offered welfare support, and jobs are being generated. But for those on low to middle incomes – the ‘squeezed middle’ – the cost-of-living crisis has left lasting damage.
Elections can galvanise promises to speed up the recovery process via various policy solutions. In normal times, these will not invite intense scrutiny. However, these are not the typical ‘business-as-usual’ times for Sri Lanka. It is a country still tagged as ‘in default’ with very limited access to international finance, either for the government or the private sector.
This very limited access hinges on the continuation of the IMF programme. Any extended interruption to the current EFF could result in the drying up of that scarce funding, and the only way to keep essential services running will be to print new rupees and make the currency nearly worthless as inflation spirals. This time around, therefore, Sri Lanka’s habit-forming past practice of ‘muddling through’ crises is no longer an option.
Electoral policy agendas will inevitably focus on alleviating economic hardships, tackling distributional concerns, and boosting output growth. Sri Lanka’s current economic context, though, demands that these should not be addressed haphazardly. Shortcomings on tax and spending can be redesigned through targetted measures without damaging fiscal credibility. In turn, continued stability around the fiscal framework will help to focus policy more intently on deeper structural factors that impede durable growth. If managed well, Sri Lanka’s post-election path could usher in an era of self-sustaining economic recovery, driving rising living standards towards a more prosperous and fairer society.
The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) provides robust analytical evidence on these and other critical issues through its ongoing research on the economic crises and its aftermath. These include assessments on the distributional impacts of recent tax and spending policies, the effectiveness of the Aswesuma programme, impacts on education and the labour market, the gains and risks of entering into regional trade agreements to boost growth, amongst others, using an array of latest data and research methods.
Drawing on these insights, IPS’ annual flagship report, Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2024, scheduled for release on 8 October 2024 examines who has lost out from the economic crises, how they have been supported, and what needs to change. As economic policy competes for space in Sri Lanka’s post-election agenda setting, the report with its thematic focus on ‘Economic Scars of Multiple Crises: From Data to Policy’ offers analytical evidence designed to help secure the necessary degree of consensus required for an economic strategy that will take the country from stabilisation to growth and prosperity.
Business
Iran strikes could add external pressure on Sri Lanka’s fragile recovery: Analyst
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stoking fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt critical energy supply routes – particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. Brent crude has already edged higher, and global oil markets warn prices could climb toward, or even exceed, US$80–100 a barrel if hostilities escalate.
Against this backdrop, an independent economic analyst told The Island that for Sri Lanka – a small, fuel-importing economy with limited domestic energy resources – the implications could be significant.
“Sri Lanka imports over 90% of its petroleum requirements, and any sustained rise in global crude prices would expand the annual import bill, placing renewed pressure on already tight foreign exchange reserves,” he said.
Even moderate spikes in oil prices, he noted, tend to filter quickly through the domestic economy. “Higher fuel costs translate into increased transport and production expenses, which feed into inflation and erode household purchasing power. Freight charges for essential goods – from food items to industrial inputs – would also rise.”
“The Middle East remains a key source of remittances and export demand,” the analyst explained. “A large share of Sri Lankan migrant workers are employed in Gulf economies, while regional markets absorb tea and other exports. Heightened instability could weaken remittance inflows and soften demand, further straining the balance of payments.”
When asked whether the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) might be compelled to shift policy in response, the analyst said the monetary authority faces a delicate balancing act.
“Rising import inflation stemming from higher global energy prices could push the Central Bank to maintain – or even tighten – its monetary policy stance in order to safeguard price stability and support the rupee. A firmer stance may be deemed necessary to anchor inflation expectations and preserve market confidence. The Central Bank is therefore likely to monitor inflation data closely in the coming weeks to assess whether energy-driven price pressures prove temporary or more entrenched,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) Chairman S. Rajakaruna said that Sri Lanka’s fuel imports – sourced primarily from Singapore and India – reduce immediate exposure to supply disruptions directly linked to Middle Eastern routes. He also sought to allay public concerns, noting that the country currently maintains sufficient fuel stocks for approximately one month and that there need not be any queueing up by the public to hoard supplies.
However, the analyst cautioned that while physical supply may remain stable, global price pass-through effects are an unavoidable risk.
Meanwhile, Opposition politician Wimal Weerawansa said that official assurances of “one month’s stock” tend to unsettle the public, arguing that such statements evoke memories of past shortages and public distress.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Ministry of Education recognises LOLC Divi Saviya for restoring 200 schools
The Ministry of Education officially recognised LOLC Holdings PLC for its flagship humanitarian initiative, Divi Saviya, at a special ceremony held on 27th February 2026 in Battaramulla. The event marked the second time the Ministry has acknowledged the programme’s contribution to the nation’s education sector.
Group Managing Director/CEO Kapila Jayawardena presented a project update to Prime Minister and Education Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, highlighting the rapid restoration of 200 schools under Phase 02 of ‘Obai, Mamai, Ape Ratai’. The schools were repaired and handed over within just 45 days, enabling students displaced by Cyclone Ditwah to safely resume learning.
Phase 02 follows a needs assessment that identified 200 damaged schools and 4,000 displaced families. Implemented with Divisional Secretariats and Disaster Management Centres, the Rs. 500 million programme has delivered Family Super Packs and school renovations across six districts.
Kapila Jayawardena stated, “It was a privilege to share these outcomes with the Prime Minister. This recognition reflects how private sector collaboration can complement government efforts during national challenges.” Plans are underway to fully rebuild select schools destroyed by the cyclone.
Business
Nestlé Golden Chef’s Hat Competition 2026 to nurture Sri Lanka’s culinary talent
Nestlé Professional, the B2B arm of Nestlé Lanka, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Chefs Guild of Lanka and the Sri Lanka Hospitality Graduates Association to collaborate in organizing the Nestlé Golden Chef’s Hat and Nestle Golden Chef’s Hat Junior Competition 2026. This islandwide culinary competition aims to identify, nurture, and develop emerging culinary talent within Sri Lanka’s hospitality industry, reinforcing Nestlé Professional’s commitment to supporting the growth of the hospitality sector and the next generation of chefs.
The Chefs Guild of Lanka will support the Professional category of the Nestlé Golden Chef’s Hat Competition 2026, facilitating eight regional competitions across the island. These regional rounds will provide a competitive platform for professional chefs to showcase their culinary expertise while helping them to develop their culinary skills further.
In parallel, Nestlé Professional Sri Lanka, in collaboration with the Sri Lanka Hospitality Graduates Association and Chefs Guild of Lanka, will organize the Junior Nestlé Golden Chef’s Hat Competition 2026, aimed at nurturing students within Sri Lanka’s hospitality sector. The regional rounds of the junior competition will be conducted across prominent hotel schools island‑wide, creating a structured platform to identify, mentor, and inspire the young students who aspire of becoming the top chefs in the country and world-wide.
Bernie Stefan, Chairman and Managing Director of Nestlé Lanka commented, “For 120 years, Nestlé has been enriching Sri Lankan lives by unlocking the power of food and beverages to enhance quality of life. This commitment has also been demonstrated in our endeavour to strengthen Sri Lanka’s foodservice ecosystem. The Nestlé Golden Chef’s Hat Competition 2026 and Junior Competition is a platform that brings together industry expertise, education, and opportunity – empowering both professional chefs and hospitality students to reach their full potential.
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