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Day three of April 1971 insurrection, on duty at Hambantota/Kataragama

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by Capt F.R.A.B.Musafer 4th Regt SLA (Retd)

Very early in the morning the OIC Inspector Arthanayake informed us that the Katargama Police station had been attacked but was successfully repulsed. We immediately proceeded towards Kataragama. When near the Tissa rest house I heard a shot that happened to be a rifle being discharged. This was an unfortunate incident, a mentally retarded person happened to break the curfew and when challenged had run away and was fired upon killing him.It was harrowing sight to see a family member wailing over the dead body. I felt bad that this incident happened in broad daylight and unnecessarily. The police arrived at the scene soon after and asked us to proceed to Kataragama.

Months later unknown to me this death had been investigated by the Field Security Division. This was a division that was created in 1970 to provide for the security of the Prime Minister and it also screened applicants hoping to join the armed services and among other things the anonymous petitions against serving service personnel of other political affiliations.

The FSD was headed by Major Denzil Kobekadduwa who was a political victim of the previous regime but as all and sundry knew was a perfect officer and gentleman. In 1970 on his return to the Army he captained the Army rugger team having already captained the Kandy Sports Club and represented Sri Lanka.

During his period of interdiction he was not allowed to enter any Army establishment or premises and as a result the Army vs. Kandy Sports Club Clifford Cup matches had to be played on neutral grounds and many a serving officer dared not be even seen with him. This was not the case when he was reinstated and exerted plenty of influence with the government in power. During the insurgency he was in England following a staff officers course.

The inquiry may have been instigated by an anonymous petition or on the strength of what happened in Kataragama later under Lt Alfred Wijesuriya (a volunteer army officer) where the local beauty queen, Miss Premawathie Manamperi, alleged to be a JVP sympathiser was allegedly raped, shot and left to die in a shallow grave. It transpired later that the bullet that killed her was fired by a soldier to put her out of her misery.

Lt Wijesuriya was found guilty of attempted murder and sentenced to life imprisonment. He suffered a fatal heart attack and died in prison a few years later. It was reported that the co-accused was murdered on his release from prison at Matara.

I was totally unaware that an investigation to the death at Tissamaharama was conducted until conveyed to me by one in the FSD unit who happened to be a rugby player a year later when I captained the Army rugby team in 1972. There were no formal charges laid which I presume cleared me of any blame for this death. Nevertheless it was an unfortunate and needless death under my watch that remains as a scar in my mind and conscience.

On our way to Kataragama which was not under my area of operations, we encountered a bus load of students from Trinity College who happened to have stayed overnight at Kataragama I can’t recall if they had witnessed or seen anything. Although a curfew was in operation we allowed them to proceed and make their way to Hambantota. They were put up by the GA till it was safe to return to Kandy.

At Kataragama we found the Police station had been attacked. The power and telephone lines had been cut. The police had been prepared and had successfully repulsed the attack. We were told that an injured insurgent had taken refuge in a nearby temple and proceeded towards the temple. Sitting at the entrance was this young man staring in a daze, bare bodied in a sarong with his hands across his blood soaked and swollen face. He had a bullet lodged in his face that had not exited and was in great pain.

I assumed this would have been from a semi automatic weapon or a shotgun pellet. There were some locals around but they were quite calm and showed no signs of any anger but pity. The police who accompanied me on the other hand suggested that I bump him off. They had an impression that the Army had the license to kill. I very politely told them that I could not do so and that I had to account for every round of ammunition. Much to their disappointment we took him and dropped him off at the Tissa Hospital.

Later in the day we headed for Hambantota and heard through our regimental wireless link that the Polonnaruwa police station had been attacked and the army had killed many insurgents. They had been dressed in blue uniforms and had come in buses. Speaking to Lt Lionel Balagalla months later, he told me he had heard of the attack at Wellawaya on the regimental net and on April 5 evening was tipped off that the Polonnaruwa police station was to be attacked and as a result was prepared for it.

The insurgents walked into a trap set up by the police and the army and as a result suffered very heavy losses. The siege went on till the early hours of April 6. Lionel told me that the resolve of the insurgents was strong, demonstrated by an insurgent who was seriously wounded and dying but still trying to grasp a homemade bomb and throw it .

He also told me that there was a magisterial inquiry held that day as this was the first time in the history of Sri Lanka that so many were killed by the army and police in an internal security operation. The use of weapons in any IS operation had a cardinal rule that the “minimum of force” was to be exercised at all times. The strategy of the insurgents was to overrun the police station with a human wave, they certainly had the superior numbers though not the weapons and were mowed down by rifle and machine gun fire.

Lionel was glad of the inquiry as he was fearful of the repercussions if this was an isolated incident. He treasured the piece of paper that cleared him of any wrong doing although the numbers did not tally to an article written later by a police officer who put the number at over 130. There were no mass graves, the bodies were cremated in the cemetery with probably no record of their identities. Lt Lionel Balagalla ended his military career as the Army Commander and retired as a Lieutenant General .

Weerawila abandoned on April 7

We totally abandoned Weerawila and moved into the Hambantota police station from which we would operate as a mobile force and patrol the area at night. There were reports that there were many police stations that had fallen to insurgent hands and more attacks expected. It was not an encouraging picture. That night we continued to patrol the roads aided by dusk to dawn curfews that was a common occurrence.

News was coming through that the Warakapola police station together with several other police stations had fallen. It was a very worrying situation. We were tuning in to BBC, ABC and the Voice of America for news on a world transistor owned by a gunner. Local radio were guarded in the news conveyed.

Communications were difficult as our battery operated radio equipment could not be charged as there was no electricity, this was previously done at the CTB depot at Kataragama. We were worried that if the police stations were overrun we would be isolated and even contemplated an exit strategy by sea. There was not much a single platoon could do.

Hambantota April 8

In a wireless conversation the adjutant Capt Samarakoon in very flattering and in unbelievable terms said that I was the ‘ Supreme Commander of Hambantota” and was no longer to take orders from the Government Agent. He had a tendency to exaggerate but I was flabbergasted as I was only a lieutenant with only a platoon under my command and a big responsibility shoved on my shoulders to oversee an entire district.

He mentioned that coordinating officers were to be appointed and till such time I was to take charge and take any action I thought fit. I conveyed this communication to the GA who was taken by surprise as he had not received anything official to this effect and asked me if he had done something wrong. I told him that the situation island wide had deteriorated to such an extent that total military intervention was necessary and assured him it was not a coup. He assured me of all the support he could extend.

Denzil Kobekadduwa

There were many curfews enforced from time to time. Some for a period of 24 hours which caused a lot of hardship and inconvenience more so for the townsfolk rather than those in the villages. As water was a commodity in short supply in Hambantota, parents opted to send their children to collect water having instructed them to raise their hands at the sight of an army patrol. We had to turn a blind eye to enforcing the curfew. Rumours were afloat that the curfew was imposed to facilitate the receipt of weapons from foreign sources and to consolidate the positions in the ground with some foreign troops..

Some of the police stations were ordered to withdraw to Hambantota and Tangalle.

Reinforcements from Colombo on April 9

On the morning of April 9 I was informed that there were two volunteer platoons being sent to assist me to take back Tissamaharama supposedly in insurgent hands. and then move to Tangalle by nightfall. Meanwhile we received the news that Capt Noel Weerakoon had been killed in an ambush on April 8 at Rambewa/Welioya together with bombadier Munasinghe and the civilian driver of the jeep.

He and his troops were being airlifted to Anuradhpura but as the airfield was in the hands of the insurgents the plane was diverted to Vavuniya. Alternative arrangements were made to travel to Anuradhapura by road. Determined to reach his objective he made the fatal decision to travel at night. His dedication and commitment to follow orders cost him his life. His body was retrieved from the riverbed at the site of the ambush by sergeant Ameer who had returned the enemy fire and caused the insurgents to retreat.

It was Capt Weerakoon’s men I was commanding and that was a devastating blow to them, a much loved officer. It affected their morale and also brought to our realization that the situation was becoming a serious problem with the army and police on the back foot.

Lt Mohan Mootatamby was recalled from his deployment at Hingurakgoda and sent to take over command of the platoon which was at Vavuniya. He was the sole passenger of an Air Ceylon plane, something he was very proud of stating that no one else ever had that privilege as a lieutenant let alone a general or even a head of state.

There was talk that the army cantonment at Panagoda had been attacked and it was later confirmed that Gunner Beckmeyer had been killed by friendly fire at the panic and confusion that prevailed in the vicinity of the artillery officers mess. If there really was an insurgent attack on the cantonment is unknown to me. There were many unconfirmed reports of police stations being withdrawn or taken over by the JVP.

That afternoon the two volunteer platoons arrived in Hambantota under the command of Lt Alfred Wijesuriya and Lt Gallapatti. The meeting was not a cordial one as Lt Wijesuriya refused to take orders from me. I was taken aback at his decision and was also not impressed by the beret he wore, one worn by the French Resistance fighters. He insisted that he was to report to the GA to which I responded by taking him to the wireless set and contacted Capt Samarakoon who once again confirmed that I was in charge; and the Supreme Commander, protocol was, though senior in age and equal in rank I was his senior by virtue of being a regular officer.

A few hours later we made plans to proceed to Tissamaharama. Before I left the Divisional Revenue Officer came up to me with a glass of gin and tonic saying that he might never see me alive again. Tired as I was I had to refuse his kind offer. He was wrong, there was no opposition whatsoever. It was ghost town with hardly a person in sight. The town had not been taken over but simply abandoned and untouched since the police had withdrawn. Having reached the main town square I drove past the town to see if the areas ahead were safe and secure whilst the volunteer troops had alighted from their vehicles.

On my return I was shocked to see some volunteer troops and a few policeman looting the shops. They had in their hands bales of cloth and whatever was worthwhile. I told Lt Wijesuriya that his men were looting to which he replied that ‘Let them take what they want’. This was something I could not tolerate and I reacted by cocking my sterling sub machine gun and shouting out that “I would shoot anybody who did not return the goods they had taken;” they all responded by walking back to the shops that had been broken into and replaced the goods.

Among them was a police driver whom I knew as a youngster. He o had worked with my father was sheepishly returning the cash box still intact with the money inside. Soon after the chairman of the Town council appeared on the scene whose cooperation I sought to seal the doors of the shops broken into. An incident like this did not augur well, as proved subsequently with the murder of the local beauty queen.

Having done that we drove to the Tissa police station where the two volunteer unit platoons were to take up positions that night They appeared to be inexperienced and lacking in basic military skills. I suppose it was the first time that they were deployed in this role as the volunteers would have in the past been used in noncombatant roles of static guards providing security to key installations. This was a different scenario as it was an attacking unconventional force we were encountering.

firozm@optusnet.com.au



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Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

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For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

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AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

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This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

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The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

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Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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