Features
China emerges as key challenger to US global dominance
Addressing the concluding sessions of the China National People’s Congress recently, which readily handed him a third term as China’s supreme leader, Xi said that from now on China would be playing an “active part in global governance.” He went to say, among other things, that, “Security is the bedrock of development, while stability is a prerequisite for prosperity.” Pointing to the role the armed forces of China would be playing in the affairs of the country, Xi said that efforts would be made “to advance the modernization of national defense and the armed forces on all fronts.”
Xi explained that a chief aim of his administration would be to transform the armed forces into a “great wall of steel”, that would be capable of “effectively safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests.”
The above stress on national security as an essential prerequisite for development sends out the message to Xi’s domestic audiences in particular that dissent on their part to his national policy agenda would not be tolerated on any account. That is, democratic development in China would be subjugated to national security considerations. Iron fist rule, therefore, will continue to prevail.
The emphasis laid on the increasing modernization of the Chinese armed forces clearly indicates that there would be no paring down of the role the armed forces would be playing in achieving China’s foreign policy aims. Chief among the latter is the increasing projection of Chinese power and influence regionally and worldwide. In these efforts the Chinese armed forces would be proving “a great wall of steel.”
Meanwhile, the fact that the Chinese President has played a principal role in bringing together once again Iran and Saudi Arabia is proof that China would indeed be figuring prominently in “global governance”. By helping the two Middle East powers to re-establish diplomatic ties China could be said to have stolen a march over the US in respect of power and influence-wielding in the region.
It is far too early to take the position that from now on there would be a drastic de-escalation of sectarian tensions in particular in the Middle East but a decrease in animosities between Iran and Saudi Arabia could contribute sizably towards defusing Shia Moslem-led revolts in the region. This is in consideration of the fact that these uprisings are being seen as supported by Iran, which is the leading Shia Moslem state in the region. For example, there could be a de-escalation of the separatist rebellion in southern Yemen, which is perceived as enjoying Iranian backing.
These diplomatic breakthroughs are of the first importance from the Chinese viewpoint on account of the fact that they could pave the way for an expansion of Chinese influence in the inter-state politics of the Middle East. With Iran and Saudi Arabia on its side quite substantially, China could from now on work more decisively towards its crucial interests in the region. One of these is the securing of greater access to the oil and energy reserves of the Middle East. By enabling Iran and Saudi Arabia to parley more cordially, China could be said to have scored a major diplomatic triumph.
In contrast, the US’s efforts at increasing its influence in the region could be said to be somewhat tardy. The centrality that the US attaches to defending Israeli interests, apparently at whatever cost, gets in the way of the US decisively upstaging other external powers seeking intervention in the politics of the Middle East.
Right now, the Middle East watcher could not be faulted for seeing the US as being comparatively ineffective in the region because it is yet to make substantial progress towards helping in effecting a political solution to the wasting conflict in the Middle East. In fact, the conflict seems to have only aggravated in recent times.
Clashes between the Israeli security forces and sections of the Palestinian populace in some of the contested areas of the Middle East have claimed some 78 Palestinian lives since the beginning of this year and this alone is proof that the US is yet to pull its weight behind a two-state solution in the region. However, it is by facilitating a solution on these lines that the US could carve out a positive and constructive role for itself in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the indications are that the West is speeding up efforts to stymie the perceived spread of Chinese power and influence in some other strategically important regions of the world. One of these is the Asia-Pacific. Perceiving the need to bolster Australia’s defense capabilities, apparently in the face of a rising Chinese military presence in the region, the AUKUS grouping, comprising the US, the UK and Australia, is going ahead with plans to manufacture and arm Australia with a number of nuclear-powered attack submarines over the next 20 years. From the viewpoint of the US, this measure is imperative in view of China’s perceived substantial military presence in the South and East China sees. Thus, is the path paved for a stepped-up arms race in the Asia-Pacific between the West and China.
While Russia and its power expansion designs in Eastern Europe are continuing to be major concerns for the West, it is plain to see that it is China that is seen as needing to be cut down to size by the US and its allies. What contributes towards this perception, among other factors, is China’s ability to use economic means to win over more and more countries of the South. China’s expansionist designs in Africa are a case in point.
While the threat to Western interests emanating from Russia could be said to be comparatively localized, the same could not be said of China which enjoys economic links with the majority of the world’s regions. China is the more subtle rival to watch.