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CBSL-ADBI-APAEA conference highlights macroeconomic problems policymakers may face

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The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (APAEA), co-hosted the CBSL-ADBI-APAEA Macroeconomics Conference for the fifth consecutive year on 06 September 2024.

This year’s conference theme was ‘Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific. Inaugurating the Conference, Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe, the Governor of the CBSL, highlighted the importance of collaborative research involving academia and policymakers. He noted that the global headline inflation is expected to moderate with gradual cooling of labour markets in advanced economies and expected decline in energy prices while renewed trade and geopolitical tensions pose risks to the inflation outlook.

Further, he observed that the nexus between inflation and exchange rate is more relevant in the context of diverse and interconnected economies in the Asia Pacific region. He also elaborated on how the Sri Lankan economy returned to normalcy after facing its worst-ever economic crisis in 2022, as a result of well-coordinated, transparent, and robust policy measures, which helped restore macroeconomic stability, leading to positive growth and stable inflation levels post-crisis. Finally, he emphasised that forums like these provide valuable intuition to the policymakers in understanding evolving complex global economic issues that have far reaching implications on the domestic economy, develop innovative solutions, and contribute to effective policymaking.

Professor Tetsushi Sonobe, Dean and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of ADBI delivered opening remarks and noted the central banks in emerging and developing economies across the world continue to face significant challenges, including those related to health crisis, ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, inflationary pressures and monetary policy actions of advanced economies.

He emphasised that workshops of this nature would help stimulate a dialogue among academia and policymakers and support further development of policy research.

The conference comprised two technical sessions in which six research paper presentations were made by authors from CBSL, ADBI and APAEA. The sessions were chaired by Dr. Chandranath Amarasekara, Assistant Governor of the CBSL and Dr. Dil Rahut, Vice-Chair of Research at ADBI. The proceedings of the conference can be accessed via the Central Bank website in the ‘conferences, seminars and workshops’ section.



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Sampath Bank’s strong results boost investor confidence

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The latest earnings report for Sampath Bank PLC (SAMP), analysed by First Capital Research (FCR), firmly supports a positive outlook among investors. The research firm has stuck with its “MAINTAIN BUY” recommendation , setting optimistic targets: a Fair Value of LKR 165.00 for 2025 and LKR 175.00 for 2026. This signals strong belief that the bank is managing the economy’s recovery successfully.

The key reason for this optimism is the bank’s shift towards aggressive, yet smart, growth. Even as interest rates dropped across the market, which usually makes loan income (Net Interest Income) harder to earn, Sampath Bank saw its total loans jump by a huge 30.2% compared to last year. This means the bank lent out a lot more money, increasing its loan book to LKR 1.1 Trillion. This strong lending, which covers trade finance, leasing, and regular term loans, shows the bank is actively helping businesses and people spend and invest as the economy recovers.

In addition to loans, the bank has found a major new source of income from fees and commissions, which surged by 42.6% year-over-year. This money comes from services like card usage, trade activities, and digital banking transactions. This shift makes the bank less reliant on just interest rates, giving it a more stable and higher-profit way to earn money.

Importantly, this growth hasn’t weakened the bank’s foundations. Sampath Bank is managing its funding costs better, partly by improving its low-cost current and savings account (CASA) ratio to 34.5%. Moreover, the quality of its loans is getting better, with bad loans (Stage 3) dropping to 3.77% and the money set aside to cover potential losses rising to a careful 60.25%.

Even with the new, higher capital requirements for systemically important banks, the bank remains very strong, keeping its capital and cash buffers robust and well above the minimum standards.

In short, while the estimated profit for 2025 was adjusted slightly, the bank’s excellent performance and strong strategy overshadow this minor change. Sampath Bank is viewed as a sound stock with high growth potential , offering investors attractive total returns over the next two years.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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ADB approves $200 million to improve water and food security in North Central Sri Lanka

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ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $200 million loan to support the ongoing Mahaweli Development Program, Sri Lanka’s largest multiuse water resources development initiative.

The program aims to transfer excess water from the Mahaweli River to the drier northern and northwestern parts of Sri Lanka. The Mahaweli Water Security Investment Program Stage 2 Project will directly benefit more than 35,600 farming households in the North Central Province by strengthening agriculture sector resilience and enhancing food security.

ADB leads the joint cofinancing effort for the project, which is expected to mobilize $60 million from the OPEC Fund for International Development and $42 million from the International Fund for Agricultural Development, in addition to the ADB financing.

“While Sri Lanka has reduced food insecurity, it remains a development challenge for the country,” said ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono. “Higher agricultural productivity and crop diversification are necessary to achieve food security, and adequate water resources and disaster-resilient irrigation systems are key.”

The project will complete the government’s North Central Province Canal (NCPC) irrigation infrastructure, which is expected to irrigate about 14,912 hectares (ha) of paddy fields and provide reliable irrigated water for commercial agriculture development (CAD). It will help complete the construction of tunnels and open and covered canals. The project will also establish a supervisory control and data acquisition system to improve NCPC operations. Once completed, the NCPC will connect the Moragahakanda Reservoir to the reservoirs of Huruluwewa, Manankattiya, Eruwewa, and Mahakanadarawa.

Sri Lanka was hit by Cyclone Ditwah in late November, resulting in the country’s worst flood in two decades and the deadliest natural hazard since the 2004 tsunami. The disaster damaged over 160,000 ha of paddy fields along with nearly 96,000 ha of other crops and 13,500 ha of vegetables.

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ComBank to further empower women-led enterprises with NCGIL

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Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking at Commercial Bank and Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer of the National Credit Guarantee Institution exchange the agreement in the presence of representatives of the two organisations

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to advancing women’s empowerment and financial inclusion, by partnering with the National Credit Guarantee Institution Limited (NCGIL) as a Participating Shareholder Institution (PSI) in the newly introduced ‘Liya Shakthi’ credit guarantee scheme, designed to support women-led enterprises across Sri Lanka.

The operational launch of the scheme was marked by the handover of the first loan registration at Commercial Bank’s Head Office recently, symbolising a key step in broadening access to finance for women entrepreneurs.

Representing Commercial Bank at the event were Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking, Malika De Silva, Senior Manager – Development Credit Department, and Chathura Dilshan, Executive Officer of the Department. The National Credit Guarantee Institution was represented by Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer, and Eranjana Chandradasa, Manager-Guarantee Administration.

‘Liya Shakthi’ is a credit guarantee product introduced by the NCGIL to facilitate greater access to financing for women-led Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that possess viable business models and sound repayment capacity but lack adequate collateral to secure traditional bank loans.

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