Features
The next 25 years: How will the economy takeoff and how will it land?
by Rajan Philips
President Wickremesinghe has a charming or annoying way, depending on who is listening, of switching between flippancy and seriousness no matter what the occasion is. Addressing the Sri Lanka Economic Summit 2022, an annual event organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, with ‘Resetting from turmoil to opportunity’ as this year’s theme, the President reportedly shocked the business audience, deadpanning, “What reforms, when we don’t have an economy!” To an audience that was apparently agog for serious revelations about an economic reform plan, the President said, “What is the plan for reform? Frankly, I have no plan for it.” But he had a program to announce and called it, ‘The Next 25 Years.’
Mr. Wickremesinghe has been harping on 25 years for some time now. That is the President’s expectation for Sri Lanka to reach economic growth and prosperity by 2048, a hundred years after becoming independent from colonial rule in 1948. The 2023 budget that passed its Third Reading on Thursday is supposed to be the launching pad for the anticipated economic recovery over the next 25 years. Hence, the President’s program: The Next 25 Years. Not to come across as being too cynical, there is nothing to substantiate this 25 year recovery program except the President’s word for it. The problem is he has a ‘word’ for everything, but little of consequence has come out of his word over the last 45 years as a parliamentarian, and four months as a parliamentary President.
He summarily wants national reconciliation achieved before independence day on February 4. We will know more about it after the All Party Conference scheduled for Monday, December 11. In the meantime, he has teased everyone with his allusion to resurrecting the District Development Councils, and used his 50th anniversary celebration as a lawyer to issue a clarion call for all fellow lawyers to come together to achieve national reconciliation. That would be fun. Getting all the lawyers to reach unanimity on something, anything. Especially, reconciliation!
Three Interventions
No presidential call, however, to all the Economists in the country to come together to help launch Sri Lanka’s 25-year economic recovery program. Economists are fewer in number and more competent in their discipline, which is also far less susceptible to pettifogging lawyerly arguments. After the President’s 2023 Budget, I have been looking at three interventions in the public domain, one by a political leader and two by noted Economists. The interventions are significant for not only what they say, but also for what they do not say.
The political leader is JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), who, as I wrote last week made a substantial speech on the economy and the political situation in the country at a public meeting in Badulla. The mainstream media has by and large ignored it. According to JVPers, mainstream media always ignores them except to dig up 1971 and 1988 whenever there is something to report on the JVP. Nonetheless, the JVP leader deserves more media coverage than a nondescript like Channa Jayasumana who seems to have wormed his way to get media coverage in spite of his abominable record in maliciously attacking Dr. Shihabdeen Shafi, the Kurunegala gynecologist, to get on the SLPP candidate list.
That aside, AKD’s Badulla speech is a graphic exposition of how terrible things are – from unaffordable prices to collapsing industries to rampant corruption. But there is nothing in the speech by way of specific remedies, except for the general assertion that elections must be held soon and the people must elect a new leadership, i.e., the JVP, to take over. He wants the country to take a leap of faith and endorse the JVP, not quite unlike President Wickremesinghe’s message to the country to take a leap of faith with him for the Next 25 Years.
The two economic intervenors I am referring to are Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne and Dr. Nimal Sanderatne, both of whom are weekly Sunday Times columnists. Abeyratne’s November 27 column is appropriately entitled, “Road to a ‘developed country’ in 2048,” and describes the budgetary vision as an “export-oriented, competitive economy led by the private sector.” The scale of the desired export expansion is ambitious – a continuous $3 billion increase in exports year over year for 25 years. Or an annual increase of 25% from the 2021 export total of $12.5 billion.
Perhaps the projected export growth is not to be deemed daunting, because after 25 years Sri Lanka’s total export value would be still under $100 billion in comparison to other export-successful Asian countries whose totals are already in the $300-$400 billion range. China is in a league of its own with an export total of $3.3 trillion. But China has a different problem, as is currently being noted by demographers. It is that the country is facing a population decline by 50% at the end of this century if not 30 years sooner. It will be quite a load off for the planet, but it is going to be an excruciating challenge for the Chinese society.
As for Sri Lanka, the annual export growth of $3 billion is to be matched by an equal yearly increase of $3 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Sri Lanka’s FDI in 2021 dropped to a paltry $600 million, quite a way lower than Malaysia ($11.6 billion), Singapore ($99.1 billion), Thailand ($11.4 billion) and Vietnam ($15.2 billion). Curiously, the Next 25 Years are going to see exports and FDI increasing at the same rate and by the same amount to reach almost the same totals in 2048 – exports: $87 billion, and FDI: $76 billion. In contrast, the above mentioned Asian countries except Singapore have high export/FDI ratios – between 20 to 30. Is Sri Lanka going to miss out on productivity, or is productivity not meant to be a consideration for the Next 25 Years?
The more important question is how are these export and FDI growth projections going to be achieved from year to year, if they are to be the roadway for Sri Lanka to become a developed country and join the high income club with a per capita membership fee of $12,695? Prof. Abeyratne lists four pre-requisites, three of which are included in the budget. They are the introduction of a “single agency,” consolidating the current BOI, EDB, SLECIC and NEDA pillars and posts into a single window, to facilitate trade and investment; New Economic Zones in different parts of the country; and bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements. None of which are new and have been tried and talked of before. The fourth requirement is what Prof. Abeyratne calls the “unilateral reform process,” which he considers to be “much more fundamental to export growth” than everything else. And this is what President Wickremesinghe cavalierly shot down at the Sri Lankan Economic Summit!
There is something else missing here. To achieve an annual export growth target of $3 billion, is it possible and is it not necessary to identify where this growth is going to come from? What is the contribution to growth from the already established export industries? Which among them have potential for growth and how could they be encouraged to expand? What are the industries that have plateaued but still need to be supported to maintain their production levels? Should there be an effort to identify potential new industries which are grounded on evidence and market potential, and not on snake-oil-sales-pitch about automobile-assembly plants? Would it make sense to have an export-product-mix and use it as a basis for opening target-oriented single agency, economic zones, and free trade areas?
The same day (November 27) Sunday Times column, Nimal Sanderatne hits the nail on the head by drawing attention to the enormity of the challenge of achieving the 2023 Budget objectives given “the political conditions in the country, production constraints in all sectors of the economy and the recessionary conditions abroad.” In his December 4 column, Dr. Sanderatne raises the possibility that the IMF’s $2.9 billion Extended Finance Facility may not be finalized even by March 2023. While it was overly optimistic on the part of everyone in Colombo to expect a smooth path to IMF’s support, Sanderatne is concerned about the geopolitical dynamic involving the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s debt to China and its political implications in Sri Lanka.
He alludes to something that few would have thought could become a possibility. And that is the likelihood of, as Sanderatne suggests, China blocking the IMF facility and offering an alternative “bailout package with Chinese financial and commodity assistance.” Nimal Sanderatne further suggests that based on Mahinda Rajapaksa’s speech during the budget debate, “such a programme would have the support of a large and influential component of the Government” led by Mahinda Rajapaksa and the SLPP. This would place President Wickremesinghe in a quandary, and it would also explain his scurrying for alternative funding sources in the World Bank, the ADB and Japan.
Takeoff and Landing
Geopolitical reality is what it is and it is Sri Lanka’s unique karma to have become indebted all at once to China, India, and the Paris Club lenders that includes Japan, and now has to find a way to restructure these debts without ruffling anyone’s feathers. Perhaps there is no denying that Ranil Wickremesinghe is the most suitable man for this unenviable task, but what is frustrating about him is that by his peculiar modes of operation he undermines his own suitability in the context of domestic politics. Put another way, there are serious hurdles to overcome before Sri Lanka can even get on the road to recovery, and the President has to engage the country far more substantively than by flippantly flinging mantras such as The Next Twenty Five Years.
To segue into a different theme, a January 2017 Working Paper (#641) in the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper Series, is on the subject, “Takeoffs, Landing and Economic Growth.” The paper (authored by Debayan Pakrashi and Paul Frijters) lists the takeoff and landing status of 22 South Asian and Southeast Asian economies. It provides a brief discussion on the experiences of Japan, the East Asian Tigers, the tiger cub economies, the People’s Republic of China, and India. Sri Lanka is included in the list, but not in the discussion.
Eighteen countries are identified as having had an economic takeoff including the year of takeoff. Only four countries are noted as having landed. The four countries with the takeoff and landing years are: Hong Kong (1960-1995), Japan (1946-1974), Malaysia (1968-1998), and Singapore (1966-1998). Sri Lanka’s year of takeoff is noted as 1990 but there has been no landing, at least not till 2017 when the ADBI Paper was published. We know now that the economy crash-landed in 2021. What will be its takeoff mechanism for the President’s Next 25 Year flight from its crash-landing state now. And how will it land again?
I am ending with the questions I stated in the title. There are abler people to answer them, both “as a point of method and as a point of substance,” to recall Professor W.W. Rostow, who I believe was the first to introduce the concept of economic takeoff in his celebrated 1960 monograph entitled, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. I was briefly introduced to Rostow in the 1970s by Peradeniya Economics Lecturer N. Balakrishnan as part of his lectures on Economics to Engineering students. Years later I read a Marxist critique of Rostow that Hector Abhayavardhana wrote when he was living in New Delhi before his return to Sri Lanka in 1964.
Now, should I be thankful to President Wickremesinghe for rekindling old interests? Re-reading Rostow, I find several resonances in Sri Lanka’s modern economic history as well as its current takeoff challenges. Hopefully, I would be able throw some light burden on those who feel constrained to read this column. Before that, let us wait and see what the President is going to surprise us with, next week, on his other big file: National Reconciliation.
Features
‘The devil is in the details’ in West Asian peace
It is obviously too early for an outpouring of joy over the seeming cessation of hostilities between the main antagonists in West Asia. While the prospect of there being a measure of calm in the region is being welcomed by considerable sections of the international community, what is ‘on the table’ currently is only a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran to give peace a chance. The hard part in the peace effort remains to be achieved.
In the Middle East of today we have one of the most complex conflicts to break out in modern international politics and the observer would be naive in the extreme to expect a facile and early closure to the tangle. Yet, for the sake of the world’s publics who have been hurting badly in the prolonged hostilities one could only hope that the US-Iran MoU that is expected to be signed by the sides on Friday would lead eventually to a substantive peace. The world’s thanks are due to Pakistan in this connection for its sustained support in the peace drive.
While the sides have agreed to a ceasing of hostilities in the most general terms and have reached accord on the facilitation of uninterrupted oil and gas supplies to the rest of the world, for instance, the ‘devil will prove to be in the details’ in an envisaged comprehensive peace settlement. It is these details that would make or break peace if the negotiations go on in earnest.
Nevertheless, the details would need to be worked out consensually in a spirit of compromise with an eye to the greater good of the world community. Realpolitik or a narrow focus on solely the national interest among the protagonists, for example, would need to give way to a measure of humanity that would encompass within it a consideration of the overall well being of the world. In other words, it is statesmanship that would crucially matter.
The next few weeks would establish whether humanists are ‘asking for far too much’ when they broach the questions at issue in these terms. Yet it is essentially self interest and national security considerations of the first importance that drove the conflict from even prior to February this year and these questions would need to be taken up and resolved to the satisfaction of the US and Iran in the main if some headway is to be made towards a durable settlement.
The nuclear issue would prove to be the proverbial Gordian Knot. From a realistic viewpoint, Iran could not be expected to be without a potential nuclear deterrent in the face of perceived nuclear threats emanating for it from the West and Israel. In the short term, Iran would need to possess this deterrent to a measure, within a mutually agreed international legal framework maybe, until wide agreement is reached on the nuclear tangle. Specifically, Iran’s immediate threat perceptions with regard to her nuclear-powered rivals would need to be defused during initial negotiations.
Ideally it is a world free of nuclear weapons that must be aimed at but since this goal cannot be achieved in the near or medium terms, unfolding negotiations would need to ensure Iran’s absolute security in a world of powers that continue to swear by the nuclear deterrent, if it is to give up the suspected latter capability.
However, it is to the degree to which the present nuclear powers divest themselves of this capability that Iran could be put at ease on this score. Accordingly, it is nothing short of a complete elimination of nuclear weapons from the world that could dissuade keenly security conscious states from developing nuclear weapons of their own with a mass destruction capability.
This is the number one dilemma the international community needs to grapple with going forward and it is to the extent to which it resolves it that a nuclear weapons free world could be envisaged. No doubt, an uphill challenge.
Compelling Israel to support the present negotiatory process constitutes another grueling challenge for the US. Currently the Iranian position essentially is that a Middle East peace is inseparable from a normalization of the security situation in Lebanon. That is, the present Israeli attacks on the Hezbollah presence in Lebanon must cease if a comprehensive peace is to be realized in West Asia.
However, Israel is showing no signs of drawing back from its attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon since the security of the Israeli state is being seen as threatened by the militant group. Co-opting Israel into the negotiatory effort therefore would turn out to be a matter of paramount concern for the US.
Moreover, elements in the rightist administration in Israel are seeing the current peace efforts as a ‘sell out’ to the enemies of Israel. They would have none of it. It is left to be seen how the US would be managing these virtual storm centres in the diplomatic process that could very well bring down the overall purported peace drive.
A recent pronouncement by US Vice President J.D. Vance points to yet another problem area in the US’ current peace overtures. He said that, ‘Regional peace and stability includes stopping the funding of terrorist organizations.’ He was obviously referring to the support extended by Iran to Hezbollah when he mentioned ‘terrorist organizations’ but he has given fresh life to the age-old conundrum of ‘Who is a terrorist?’ by these words.
To the Netanyahu government the Hezbollah and other militant organizations fighting Israel are ‘terrorists’ but from the viewpoint of the Iranian regime they are ‘freedom fighters’. This seemingly insurmountable definitional issue would not only stubbornly bedevil the peace effort but could even figure in bringing about its collapse, unless judiciously handled.
Thus, it’s the thorny details that need to be watched to keep the West Asian peace process afloat, once it gets going in earnest. There is no doubt that US President Trump would be receiving a considerable amount of support from the G7 in this historic peace undertaking and his personal appeals to the grouping currently meeting in France for continuous support are likely to elicit a positive response from it.
Likewise, Trump would need to appeal to also the BRICS countries if almost total global support is to be garnered for the peace drive in West Asia. BRICS’ solidarity with the US and the West is likely to carry considerable weight with Iran and other Eastern actors who are key to a sustained peace drive in the Middle East.
Features
Sri Lanka’s elephant paradox: Govt. counts tourism dollars while playing a dangerous numbers game: Expert
At a time when Sri Lanka is enjoying a resurgence in wildlife tourism, with elephants remaining the undisputed stars of the country’s national parks and one of its most marketable natural assets, elephant conservationist Supun Lahiru Prakash has sounded a stark warning: the nation is in danger of losing the very species that helps attract millions of tourism dollars while sustaining some of the island’s most important ecosystems.
Supun says repeated claims by authorities that Sri Lanka’s elephant population is increasing, despite the absence of a final survey report and amid continuing elephant deaths, risk creating a misleading narrative that could undermine conservation efforts and encourage retaliation against elephants.
According to Supun, the issue is not merely about numbers. It is about political priorities, scientific credibility and the future of one of Sri Lanka’s most iconic species.
“Repeatedly claiming that the elephant population is increasing appears to be an attempt to hide the Government’s inability to manage the rising annual elephant death rate and the complications of human-elephant conflict,” Supun said.
For decades, the Sri Lankan elephant has been a symbol of the country’s rich natural heritage. It is the centrepiece of wildlife tourism, drawing visitors from across the globe to national parks such as Yala, Udawalawe, Minneriya, Kaudulla and Wilpattu. International wildlife documentaries, tourism campaigns and social media promotions frequently place elephants at the heart of Sri Lanka’s nature tourism brand.
Yet, according to Supun, the country’s conservation policies do not reflect the value of the species.
“On one hand, the Government is enjoying increasing tourism revenue, and elephants remain one of Sri Lanka’s most important wildlife attractions. On the other hand, narratives are being promoted that could encourage retaliation against the very species that contributes significantly to the country’s tourism industry,” Supun said.
According to the First Countrywide National Survey of Elephants conducted in 2011, Sri Lanka had 5,879 elephants. However, official statistics show that 4,167 elephants died between 2012 and 2024.
Supun stressed that these figures represent only the deaths officially recorded by the Department of Wildlife Conservation.
“In a context where more than 70 percent of the country’s elephant population reported in 2011 has died within 13 years, it is difficult to accept claims that the population has increased,” Supun said.
The conservationist pointed out that elephants have the longest gestation period among land mammals and that scientific studies have reported increasing interbirth intervals among female elephants together with high calf mortality.
“When such biological realities are taken into consideration, claims of a dramatic increase in elephant numbers become difficult to understand,” Supun said.
Supun believes that repeated references to increasing elephant populations risk fuelling public hostility towards elephants, particularly among farming communities already affected by crop raids and property damage.
“Such claims can create the impression that elephant populations are exploding and thereby promote retaliation against elephants as well,” Supun said.
According to Supun, Sri Lanka’s elephant crisis cannot be understood solely through population estimates. The real issue lies in the country’s failure to address human-elephant conflict through long-term, science-based solutions.
Sri Lanka continues to record among the highest levels of human-elephant conflict in the world. Every year, hundreds of elephants and dozens of people lose their lives as competition for land and resources intensifies.
Despite the scale of the crisis, Supun says authorities continue to rely on strategies that have repeatedly failed.

Lahiru Prakash
These include driving elephants into protected areas, strengthening electric fences to confine them there and allocating additional manpower to maintain fencing systems.
Supun was also critical of several proposals that emerged from district-level discussions on conflict mitigation, including the sowing of paddy and corn using Air Force drones and the planting of fruit orchards within protected areas.
“Such proposals fail to address the real ecological and social dimensions of the conflict,” Supun said.
While welcoming reports that the Government intends appointing a national-level mechanism to tackle human-elephant conflict, Supun said the challenge required intervention at the highest level of government.
“Given the gravity, complexity and geographical spread of human-elephant conflict, appointing any committee other than a Presidential Task Force is not useful,” Supun said.
He argued that a Presidential Task Force chaired by either the President or the Secretary to the President would be better positioned to overcome the bureaucratic delays and institutional fragmentation that have hindered previous efforts.
Supun also stressed the urgent need to restore and protect elephant corridors and home ranges that allow elephants to move safely across landscapes.
He cited the Koholankala elephant corridor in Hambantota as one example where removing obstacles could help reduce conflict while improving habitat connectivity.
At the same time, Supun questioned policies that permit the allocation of forest lands in areas identified by environmental assessments as crucial elephant ranges and movement corridors.
“The opening of elephant corridors and the protection of elephant home ranges must be carried out scientifically and consistently if they are to succeed,” Supun said.
Beyond tourism, Supun emphasised the ecological importance of elephants.
“Elephants are ecosystem engineers. Through their feeding habits and movements, they help maintain habitats that support numerous other species. In many ways, they create safer and healthier environments for wildlife,” Supun said.
According to Supun, protecting elephants means protecting entire ecosystems and the biodiversity upon which Sri Lanka’s wildlife tourism industry depends.
“By protecting elephants, we are also protecting the biodiversity that makes Sri Lanka one of the world’s premier wildlife tourism destinations,” Supun said.
As Sri Lanka seeks to expand tourism earnings and strengthen its reputation as a wildlife destination, Supun believes the country faces a defining choice: continue with policies that have failed to stem elephant deaths and human-elephant conflict, or embrace a science-based conservation strategy that safeguards both people and wildlife.
Without a fundamental shift in policy and political will, Supun warned, Sri Lanka risks losing not only one of its most iconic species but also the ecological and economic benefits that elephants continue to provide.
“The suffering of both farmers and elephants will only intensify unless meaningful action replaces rhetoric,” Supun said.
By Ifham Nizam
Features
Top Model of the World 2026
Back-to-back victory for Colombia
Katherine Castaño of Colombia claimed the Top Model of the World 2026 crown, securing a historic back-to-back victory for her country. Angelica Sanchez of Puerto Rico was named first runner-up, and Eunice Deza of the Philippines finished as second runner-up.
Katherine was crowned by outgoing titleholder Natalia Garizabal Vera of Colombia.
Several special category awards, and subsidiary titles, were also presented during the Top Model of the World 2026 pageant.
These awards recognised excellence in modelling, peer support, and regional representation.
Primary Subsidiary Titles

Sri Lanka’s Netalie Withanage: Top 16 at
the grand finale
Miss Globe 2026: Valentina Tabares (Ecuador) — Awarded to the contestant who perfectly balances fashion modelling with traditional beauty queen qualities.
Queen of Europe 2026: Mia Danielle Williams (United Kingdom) — Given to the highest-ranking candidate from a European nation.
Special Awards Recognition
Audience Iconic Award: Charly (Dominican Republic) — Won via the official public online vote, granting her a fast-track direct entry into the Top 6.
Exotic Model of the World: Angel Emeka (Nigeria) — Awarded for exceptional editorial presence and strong runway performance.
Best Body Award: Thailand — Voted directly by fellow contestants at the Flow Spectrum Hotel. The highest-ranking runners-up for this category included Zambia, South Africa, Colombia, and Ghana.

Angelica Sanchez (Puerto Rico): 1st Runner-up
Final Placement
Winner: Katherine Castaño (Colombia)
1st Runner-Up: Angelica Sanchez (Puerto Rico)
2nd Runner-Up: Eunice Deza (Philippines)
Top 6 Finalists: Included contestants from the Dominican Republic, Romania, and Germany.
The pageant, known for focusing on professional modelling careers over just beauty, brought together 36 models from around the globe for two weeks of runway, photoshoots, and cultural events.
Sri Lanka’s Netalie Withanage walked among 36 of the world’s best and powered her way into the Top 16 at the grand finale.
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