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Ranil-SWOT: A Reappraisal

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by Kumar David

Less than three months ago on June 10 (“Ranil: A SWOT Appraisal”) I offered readers an evaluation of the future that beckons then Prime Minister now President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW). It is a sign of how quickly events move that I have to repeat the exercise so soon. If you track the Sunday Island, daily Island or other English language papers you will be familiar with what columnists are saying. For my purposes today the Home Page of Colombo Telegraph (CT) is more convenient. With one click you gain access to a large number of titles and with another click reach any of them. Of the 20+ currently on offer here are the 12 most hostile to RW. I have omitted author names because debate about specific opinions is not my purpose; it is the trend that I want you to observe. These 12 pieces see RW as dangerous and a threat to democracy and describe the economic prospects facing his Administration as hopeless.

“Ranil’s policy train-wreck, opposition own-goals, Dullas-GL game-changer”

“Taking dictatorial steps to control public Sri Lanka”

“Ranil’s perilous authoritarian alternative”

“Government’s attempt to redefine political discourse & direction through suppression”

“Sri Lanka’s PTA: Anti-terrorism law that promotes terrorism”

“Reliance on repression will worsen current crisis”

“Wickremesinghe/Rajapaksa – an axis of evil’

“Use of prevention of terrorism (Temporary Provisions) Act to stab the rule of law”

“Witch-Hunting Mudalige; Ranil-Rajapaksa repression & opposition’s confusion”

“Is Lanka heading towards the Myanmar model of governance?”

“Lanka’s determined non-compliance of UNHRC resolutions; defiance of UN & UNHRC Charters”

“Ranil & Dinesh Have A Past, Not A Future!”

People understandably are very angry about RW’s inordinate use of force to beat up protestors the moment he was sworn in as president. It provoked me to call him ‘Batalanda Ranil’ in my columns. Also see a damning 2015 report by Dharman Wickremaratne in Lankaweb. (Obviously I cannot vouch for it). https://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/2015/08/03/demons-of-batalanda-who-was-behind-them/.

Ranil was complicit in the notorious Batalanda torture chamber, furthermore Prime Minister Premadasa had knowledge and permitted the functioning of dozens of torture sites across the country.

The Research Directorate of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada in its joint website with the UNHRC (https://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6acfd54.html) reports as follows: “The Batalanda Commission report that was submitted to President Chandrika on 27 March 1997 found the police Counter Subversive Unit (CSU) headed by (Douglas) Peiris “directly responsible” for the torture carried out at the semi-unofficial detention centre at Batalanda Housing Scheme. The report also found that Wickramasinghe knew of the centre’s existence”.

More recently a hard-hitting piece, titled “President Wickremesinghe’s first step was to inflict violence on protestors” appeared on 23 July in this US website jurist.org/news. It said: “RW made public declarations supporting people’s protest before being appointed Acting President under Rajapaksa and advised officials not to interfere or use force against protestors at ‘GotaGoGama’. Contrary to his words, his action on becoming President speaks volumes about his character. …. As the days progress the people of Lanka and the world wait to see whether he will reign through terror and hinder democracy”.

I have pulled out these three pieces to show why so many people fear that RW may go from bad to worse. The CT titles I listed convey the impression that most correspondents believe that RW is still a threat. However, I think they are not tracking trends. Good heavens I am not asking you to whitewash RW in the democracy department! Victor Ivan has done it for inexplicable reasons (and what’s the socio-economic programme which Ivan says the two of them have cooked up?) Nevertheless, we must evaluate trends as they progress. The reason I am undertaking a follow-up SWOT analysis is because I see a dynamic at work.

SWOT denotes Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The rest of this essay is how I see RW’s options shaping-up in the coming months. He has been attacked mercilessly by domestic opinion (trade unions, liberals, the left, churches, temples, the media, the diplomatic community in Colombo) as well as global human rights groups and world public opinion. The military option, the Kamal, Army Silva, Sarath Weerasekara, STF, murder-with-impunity and tiger-behind-every-cadjan-fence fairy tales, are dead for now. The Emergency will be allowed to lapse, PTA watered down, Tamil diaspora given some space and the RTI Commission, Transparency and civil society will gain some strength. RW is plastered to the wall and prevented from violating democratic rights. For how long? Maybe for long; he has no way of reincarnating a Batalanda avatar any time soon. Supporters will market this as a virtue, a return of the prodigal to godliness and peddle it as a Strength. The business community will buy it.

Secondly RW’s performance evaluation depends on two more factors; (a) can he sell belt-tightening to the people as unavoidable for say two years and a necessary measure on the road to economic recovery, and (b) how will any alliance he cobbles together perform at an election within a few months. Let’s not speculate beyond that in these fast-changing times. Even aragalaya militants grant that there will be hard times ahead on the economic front, their debate is about where the burden should fall. Only Lanka’s Mad Monetary Theorists (new style MMTs) say ‘switch on the printing press 24/7, flood the pockets of the poor with crisp new notes and let the middle-classes and businesses go fly a kite’. People know inflation, they have suffered at the receiving end for nine months and they can perceive what hyperinflation will do. Let’s watch the December budget for real indicators.

People are not stupid; they know that even if the Son of God is made president, substantial price inflation will persist. Were Sajith, Anura Kumara or some SLPP-Rajapaksa coot to say “Make me president in place of Ranil; I will bring down prices fast and Lanka will flow with milk and honey” he will be greeted with shrieks of derision. The gist of what I am saying is this: Price inflation and a slow economy will not kill RW if an election were to be conducted within a few months. People know that not much is possible pronto. The IMF and global capitalism prefer Ranil to Sajith, AKD or a Rajapaksa-coot. Western capitalism and India will nudge external economics (debt restructuring and procurement of fuel) in directions that will help RW survive and be re-elected. I am saying that global capitalism wants Ranil and will assist him in subtle and not so subtle ways: this I guess is obvious to most people.

In SWOT terminology this counts as an Opportunity and if RW plays his cards smartly a Strength. What then in my view is the most significant Weakness facing RW at this time? Without doubt it is that till the dissolution of Parliament he is a slave of pro-government and SLPP Members of Parliament and thence a retainer of the Rajapaksa Clan (Mahinda, Basil and Gota’s residual killers in Defence Ministry, military and the ex-Tripoli Market unit). Only after Parliament is dissolved can RW, if he has the guts, jettison the SLPP flotsam. Recollections of Rajapaksa linkages will be RW’s biggest electoral bugbear.

How will RW perform at an election held within a few months? A crucial caution is what will be the stance of Sajith and the SJB? I cannot imagine the SJB’s intelligent heavyweights going to the polls without some type of alliance with the formal UNP – that is without ‘going back home’. The SJB despite numerate persons like Eran (the clearest minded and most articulate), Harsha and Kabir cannot, by itself, present a credible national alternative, sans an alliance with the grand old party. Furthermore, a Sajith-Ranil union will do less well in urban areas than a Ranil-Sajith alliance; the converse is true in non-urban electorates. The SJB can outperform the UNP only in city areas and districts with a heavy minority (Ceylon Tamil, Muslim and Up-Country) presence, but only if a credible minority candidate splits the vote.

Far wiser men than I have busted their savings taking bets about elections so I am not going to say anything other than the obvious regarding an election which may be held within months. Obviously the SLPP, all pro-government contraptions, the nine-party circus, the twelve strong GL, Dullas Alahapperuma outfit and the Wimal-Udaya-Vasu comedy would all have been erased in toto in a first-past-the-post contest. In the proportional representation system, the whole lot together may win a dozen or two dozen seats. The electorate will shun anything tainted by Rajapaksa Robbery. Ditto for pissu Sira’s SLFP.

Last month’s Budget is bandage; it plasters over Basil’s preposterous crap. The real McCoy will be the one-year Budget due in December. Government, Central Bank, Treasury and RW’s inner circle will have to line up with the IMF’s stipulations. The IMF $2.9 billion pitch (Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has approved the Staff Level agreement), not verbatim but conscientiously abbreviated is as follows:

“Raise revenue to support fiscal consolidation from one of the lowest revenue levels in the world. The programme must make major tax reforms; income tax more aggressive, broaden corporate tax and VAT and reach a primary surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024. Introduce cost-recovery based pricing for fuel and electricity to minimize fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises. The IMF welcomes the already announced substantial revenue measures and energy pricing reforms. Mitigate impact of the crisis on the poor and vulnerable by raising social spending, improving the coverage and targeting safety net programmes.

Restore price stability through data-driven monetary policy, phasing out monetary fiscal financing and a stronger central bank. Pursue flexible inflation targeting. A new Central Bank Act is a cornerstone of this. Rebuild foreign reserves through a market-determined and flexible exchange rate. Safeguard financial stability by ensuring a well-capitalised banking system. Reduce corruption, improve fiscal transparency, public finance management and the anti-corruption legal framework”.

This is the liberal-bourgeois, post neo-liberal rationale, and I alerted my regular readers to most of it during the last three months well before the Central Bank, RW or the Treasury mentioned the inevitability of a dual exchange rate, floating rupee, relaxed currency controls to entice money-market funds and FDI, fiscal reform and above all significant belt-tightening. If Lanka aligns with Western capitalism and the IMF and restores a liberal bourgeois state these changes will flow naturally. As for RW now licking the wounds of his July 23 fiasco, this is a destiny that aligns with his inherited class palate.



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Cyclones, greed and philosophy for a new world order

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Floods caused by Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka

Further to my earlier letter titled, “Psychology of Greed and Philosophy for a New World Order” (The Island 26.11.2025) it may not be far-fetched to say that the cause of the devastating cyclones that hit Sri Lanka and Indonesia last week could be traced back to human greed. Cyclones of this magnitude are said to be unusual in the equatorial region but, according to experts, the raised sea surface temperatures created the conditions for their occurrence. This is directly due to global warming which is caused by excessive emission of Greenhouse gases due to burning of fossil fuels and other activities. These activities cannot be brought under control as the rich, greedy Western powers do not want to abide by the terms and conditions agreed upon at the Paris Agreement of 2015, as was seen at the COP30 meeting in Brazil recently. Is there hope for third world countries? This is why the Global South must develop a New World Order. For this purpose, the proposed contentment/sufficiency philosophy based on morals like dhana, seela, bhavana, may provide the necessary foundation.

Further, such a philosophy need not be parochial and isolationist. It may not be  necessary to adopt systems that existed in the past that suited the times but develop a system that would be practical and also pragmatic in the context of the modern world.

It must be reiterated that without controlling the force of collective greed the present destructive socioeconomic system cannot be changed. Hence the need for a philosophy that incorporates the means of controlling greed. Dhana, seela, bhavana may suit Sri Lanka and most of the East which, as mentioned in my earlier letter, share a similar philosophical heritage. The rest of the world also may have to adopt a contentment / sufficiency philosophy with  strong and effective tenets that suit their culture, to bring under control the evil of greed. If not, there is no hope for the existence of the world. Global warming will destroy it with cyclones, forest fires, droughts, floods, crop failure and famine.

Leading economists had commented on the damaging effect of greed on the economy while philosophers, ancient as well as modern, had spoken about its degenerating influence on the inborn human morals. Ancient philosophers like Plato, Aristotle, and Epicurus all spoke about greed, viewing it as a destructive force that hindered a good life. They believed greed was rooted in personal immorality and prevented individuals from achieving true happiness by focusing on endless material accumulation rather than the limited wealth needed for natural needs.

Jeffry Sachs argues that greed is a destructive force that undermines social and environmental well-being, citing it as a major driver of climate change and economic inequality, referencing the ideas of Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, etc. Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Laureate economist, has criticised neoliberal ideology in similar terms.

In my earlier letter, I have discussed how contentment / sufficiency philosophy could effectively transform the socioeconomic system to one that prioritises collective well-being and sufficiency over rampant consumerism and greed, potentially leading to more sustainable economic models.

Obviously, these changes cannot be brought about without a change of attitude, morals and commitment of the rulers and the government. This cannot be achieved without a mass movement; people must realise the need for change. Such a movement would need  leadership. In this regard a critical responsibility lies with the educated middle class. It is they who must give leadership to the movement that would have the goal of getting rid of the evil of excessive greed. It is they who must educate the entire nation about the need for these changes.

The middle class would be the vanguard of change. It is the middle class that has the capacity to bring about change. It is the middle class that perform as a vibrant component of the society for political stability. It is the group which supplies political philosophy, ideology, movements, guidance and leaders for the rest of the society. The poor, who are the majority, need the political wisdom and leadership of the middle class.

Further, the middle class is the font of culture, creativity, literature, art and music. Thinkers, writers, artistes, musicians are fostered by the middle class. Cultural activity of the middle class could pervade down to the poor groups and have an effect on their cultural development as well. Similarly, education of a country depends on how educated the middle class is. It is the responsibility of the middle class to provide education to the poor people.

Most importantly, the morals of a society are imbued in the middle class and it is they who foster them. As morals are crucial in the battle against  greed, the middle class assume greater credentials to spearhead the movement against greed and bring in sustainable development and growth. Contentment sufficiency philosophy, based on morals, would form the strong foundation necessary for achieving the goal of a new world order. Thus, it is seen that the middle class is eminently suitable to be the vehicle that could adopt and disseminate a contentment/ sufficiency philosophy and lead the movement against the evil neo-liberal system that is destroying the world.

The Global South, which comprises the majority of the world’s poor, may have to realise, before it is too late, that it is they who are the most vulnerable to climate change though they may not be the greatest offenders who cause it. Yet, if they are to survive, they must get together and help each other to achieve self-sufficiency in the essential needs, like food, energy and medicine. Trade must not be via exploitative and weaponised currency but by means of a barter system, based on purchase power parity (PPP). The union of these countries could be an expansion of organisations,like BRICS, ASEAN, SCO, AU, etc., which already have the trade and financial arrangements though in a rudimentary state but with great potential, if only they could sort out their bilateral issues and work towards a Global South which is neither rich nor poor but sufficient, contented and safe, a lesson to the Global North. China, India and South Africa must play the lead role in this venture. They would need the support of a strong philosophy that has the capacity to fight the evil of greed, for they cannot achieve these goals if fettered by greed. The proposed contentment / sufficient philosophy would form a strong philosophical foundation for the Global South, to unite, fight greed and develop a new world order which, above all, will make it safe for life.

by Prof. N. A. de S. Amaratunga 
PHD, DSc, DLITT

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SINHARAJA: The Living Cathedral of Sri Lanka’s Rainforest Heritage

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Damp and thick undergrowth

When Senior biodiversity scientist Vimukthi Weeratunga speaks of Sinharaja, his voice carries the weight of four decades spent beneath its dripping emerald canopy. To him, Sri Lanka’s last great rainforest is not merely a protected area—it is “a cathedral of life,” a sanctuary where evolution whispers through every leaf, stream and shadow.

 “Sinharaja is the largest and most precious tropical rainforest we have,” Weeratunga said.

“Sixty to seventy percent of the plants and animals found here exist nowhere else on Earth. This forest is the heart of endemic biodiversity in Sri Lanka.”

A Magnet for the World’s Naturalists

Sinharaja’s allure lies not in charismatic megafauna but in the world of the small and extraordinary—tiny, jewel-toned frogs; iridescent butterflies; shy serpents; and canopy birds whose songs drift like threads of silver through the mist.

“You must walk slowly in Sinharaja,” Weeratunga smiled.

“Its beauty reveals itself only to those who are patient and observant.”

For global travellers fascinated by natural history, Sinharaja remains a top draw. Nearly 90% of nature-focused visitors to Sri Lanka place Sinharaja at the top of their itinerary, generating a deep economic pulse for surrounding communities.

A Forest Etched in History

Centuries before conservationists championed its cause, Sinharaja captured the imagination of explorers and scholars. British and Dutch botanists, venturing into the island’s interior from the 17th century onward, mapped streams, documented rare orchids, and penned some of the earliest scientific records of Sri Lanka’s natural heritage.

Smallest cat

These chronicles now form the backbone of our understanding of the island’s unique ecology.

The Great Forest War: Saving Sinharaja

But Sinharaja nearly vanished.

In the 1970s, the government—guided by a timber-driven development mindset—greenlit a Canadian-assisted logging project. Forests around Sinharaja fell first; then, the chainsaws approached the ancient core.

 “There was very little scientific data to counter the felling,” Weeratunga recalled.

“But people knew instinctively this was a national treasure.”

The public responded with one of the greatest environmental uprisings in Sri Lankan history. Conservation icons Thilo Hoffmann and Neluwe Gunananda Thera led a national movement. After seven tense years, the new government of 1977 halted the project.

What followed was a scientific renaissance. Leading researchers—including Prof. Savithri Gunathilake and Prof. Nimal Gunathilaka, Prof. Sarath Kottagama, and others—descended into the depths of Sinharaja, documenting every possible facet of its biodiversity.

Thilak

 “Those studies paved the way for Sinharaja to become Sri Lanka’s very first natural World Heritage Site,” Weeratunga noted proudly.

A Book Woven From 30 Years of Field Wisdom

For Weeratunga, Sinharaja is more than academic terrain—it is home. Since joining the Forest Department in 1985 as a young researcher, he has trekked, photographed, documented and celebrated its secrets.

Now, decades later, he joins Dr. Thilak Jayaratne, the late Dr. Janaka Gallangoda, and Nadika Hapuarachchi in producing, what he calls, the most comprehensive book ever written on Sinharaja.

 “This will be the first major publication on Sinharaja since the early 1980s,” he said.

“It covers ecology, history, flora, fauna—and includes rare photographs taken over nearly 30 years.”

Some images were captured after weeks of waiting. Others after years—like the mysterious mass-flowering episodes where clusters of forest giants bloom in synchrony, or the delicate jewels of the understory: tiny jumping spiders, elusive amphibians, and canopy dwellers glimpsed only once in a lifetime.

The book even includes underwater photography from Sinharaja’s crystal-clear streams—worlds unseen by most visitors.

A Tribute to a Departed Friend

Halfway through the project, tragedy struck: co-author Dr. Janaka Gallangoda passed away.

 “We stopped the project for a while,” Weeratunga said quietly.

“But Dr. Thilak Jayaratne reminded us that Janaka lived for this forest. So we completed the book in his memory. One of our authors now watches over Sinharaja from above.”

Jumping spide

An Invitation to the Public

A special exhibition, showcasing highlights from the book, will be held on 13–14 December, 2025, in Colombo.

“We cannot show Sinharaja in one gallery,” he laughed.

“But we can show a single drop of its beauty—enough to spark curiosity.”

A Forest That Must Endure

What makes the book special, he emphasises, is its accessibility.

“We wrote it in simple, clear language—no heavy jargon—so that everyone can understand why Sinharaja is irreplaceable,” Weeratunga said.

“If people know its value, they will protect it.”

To him, Sinharaja is more than a rainforest.

It is Sri Lanka’s living heritage.

A sanctuary of evolution.

A sacred, breathing cathedral that must endure for generations to come.

By Ifham Nizam

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How Knuckles was sold out

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Knuckles range

Leaked RTI Files Reveal Conflicting Approvals, Missing Assessments, and Silent Officials

“This Was Not Mismanagement — It Was a Structured Failure”— CEJ’s Dilena Pathragoda

An investigation, backed by newly released Right to Information (RTI) files, exposes a troubling sequence of events in which multiple state agencies appear to have enabled — or quietly tolerated — unauthorised road construction inside the Knuckles Conservation Forest, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

At the centre of the unfolding scandal is a trail of contradictory letters, unexplained delays, unsigned inspection reports, and sudden reversals by key government offices.

“What these documents show is not confusion or oversight. It is a structured failure,” said Dilena Pathragoda, Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Justice (CEJ), who has been analysing the leaked records.

“Officials knew the legal requirements. They ignored them. They knew the ecological risks. They dismissed them. The evidence points to a deliberate weakening of safeguards meant to protect one of Sri Lanka’s most fragile ecosystems.”

A Paper Trail of Contradictions

RTI disclosures obtained by activists reveal:

Approvals issued before mandatory field inspections were carried out

Three departments claiming they “did not authorise” the same section of the road

A suspiciously backdated letter clearing a segment already under construction

Internal memos flagging “missing evaluation data” that were never addressed

“No-objection” notes do not hold any legal weight for work inside protected areas, experts say.

One senior officer’s signature appears on two letters with opposing conclusions, sent just three weeks apart — a discrepancy that has raised serious questions within the conservation community.

“This is the kind of documentation that usually surfaces only after damage is done,” Pathragoda said. “It shows a chain of administrative behaviour designed to delay scrutiny until the bulldozers moved in.”

The Silence of the Agencies

Perhaps, more alarming is the behaviour of the regulatory bodies.

Multiple departments — including those legally mandated to halt unauthorised work — acknowledged concerns in internal exchanges but issued no public warnings, took no enforcement action, and allowed machinery to continue operating.

“That silence is the real red flag,” Pathragoda noted.

“Silence is rarely accidental in cases like this. Silence protects someone.”

On the Ground: Damage Already Visible

Independent field teams report:

Fresh erosion scars on steep slopes

Sediment-laden water in downstream streams

Disturbed buffer zones

Workers claiming that they were instructed to “complete the section quickly”

Satellite images from the past two months show accelerated clearing around the contested route.

Environmental experts warn that once the hydrology of the Knuckles slopes is altered, the consequences could be irreversible.

CEJ: “Name Every Official Involved”

CEJ is preparing a formal complaint demanding a multi-agency investigation.

Pathragoda insists that responsibility must be traced along the entire chain — from field officers to approving authorities.

“Every signature, every omission, every backdated approval must be examined,” she said.

“If laws were violated, then prosecutions must follow. Not warnings. Not transfers. Prosecutions.”

A Scandal Still Unfolding

More RTI documents are expected to come out next week, including internal audits and communication logs that could deepen the crisis for several agencies.

As the paper trail widens, one thing is increasingly clear: what happened in Knuckles is not an isolated act — it is an institutional failure, executed quietly, and revealed only because citizens insisted on answers.

by Ifham Nizam

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