Business
SLID webinar – Sri Lanka’s economy: The next 6 months
The Women Directors Forum of The Sri Lanka Institute of Directors together with the Women Corporate Directors (WCD) Sri Lanka Chapter recently organized a webinar on Sri Lanka’s Economy: The Next 6 Months to understand what the next 6 months will hold for Sri Lanka under different political and debt scenarios. Anshari Perera – Head of Sector Research & Lead Macro Economic Analyst and Chayu Damsinghe – Product Head Macroeconomic & Thematic Research of Frontier Research (Pvt) Ltd were the resource persons for the session.
In her presentation, Anshari Perera said that the near-term economic outlook is very ambiguous as it is tied to the political nuances in the country and that there can be a significant amount of volatility over the next few months depending on how the situation unfolds. She added that political situation and the negotiations with the IMF are two key factors that will have a significant impact on how Sri Lanka’s economy will perform in the near-term as well as from a longer-term perspective.
“The IMF is important in bringing back confidence and improving the sentiment – particularly the foreign investor sentiment – towards Sri Lanka. From a political perspective, if we have a stable government that can continue throughout this period, it will immensely help with the IMF negotiations and the debt restructuring process. Anshari went ahead to comment that Sri Lanka is not unique in the situation it is in. Many other economies have undergone similar experiences in the past 10-15 years. IMF’s importance at this juncture can be understood by studying the experience other countries have had in similar currency and debt crises and how they have manoeuvred their economies back to health with the backing of the IMF. She mentioned that countries which have continued with the IMF programme for at least two years have seen spiralling inflation fall back to below 15% and cut back on money printing with tight monetary and fiscal policy reforms such as interest rate increases and restructuring of taxes. An IMF programme will also support an inflation rate slow-down and stabilization of exchange rates” she said adding that while Sri Lanka can recover from this crisis and come out stronger like some of the other countries, the recovery will not be a “V” shaped fast recovery.
Chayu Damsinghe commented that the crisis that Sri Lanka is going through is not necessarily rare or uncommon. He mentioned that the recovery witnessed by other countries gives optimism even though the trajectory of recovery may be mid to long term. While some countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe underwent a hyper-inflationary period, most countries recovered, some quite strongly, having undergone varying levels of pain.”
“In 1991 India experienced its Gross Fiscal Deficit rising which was financed through increased borrowings. India saw its reserves falling from USD 3.11 billion at the end of August 1990 to USD 891 million by mid-January 1991 causing massive problems across India. The economic crisis fuelled a political upheaval too with India appointing four prime ministers from 1989 to 1991. It was PM Narsimha Rao’s Government that was credited for having implemented the necessary reforms for India to come out of the crisis.”
“Across this period, the currency depreciated quite heavily across a series of devaluations. Interest rates were also high although not as high as in Sri Lanka” he added.”
He also highlighted that India was facing the same issues that Sri Lanka is currently facing such as foreign lenders becoming reluctant to lend money, non-availability of forex to import essentials such as fuel and fertiliser, an adjustment of the exchange rate which was put in place to discourage the import of non-essential items while encouraging non-residents to send more money to their local bank accounts. The reforms package promulgated by the then PM of India to make them self-reliant with the ability to pay for their imports with their own exports, liberalising government regulation and controls which hindered economic activity and employment opportunities, reducing rural urban disparities, ensuring social justice and the misuse of government concessions with those other than the poor and needy enjoying the benefits does resonate with the discussions that are now taking place in Sri Lanka.
Business
Sampath Bank’s strong results boost investor confidence
The latest earnings report for Sampath Bank PLC (SAMP), analysed by First Capital Research (FCR), firmly supports a positive outlook among investors. The research firm has stuck with its “MAINTAIN BUY” recommendation , setting optimistic targets: a Fair Value of LKR 165.00 for 2025 and LKR 175.00 for 2026. This signals strong belief that the bank is managing the economy’s recovery successfully.
The key reason for this optimism is the bank’s shift towards aggressive, yet smart, growth. Even as interest rates dropped across the market, which usually makes loan income (Net Interest Income) harder to earn, Sampath Bank saw its total loans jump by a huge 30.2% compared to last year. This means the bank lent out a lot more money, increasing its loan book to LKR 1.1 Trillion. This strong lending, which covers trade finance, leasing, and regular term loans, shows the bank is actively helping businesses and people spend and invest as the economy recovers.
In addition to loans, the bank has found a major new source of income from fees and commissions, which surged by 42.6% year-over-year. This money comes from services like card usage, trade activities, and digital banking transactions. This shift makes the bank less reliant on just interest rates, giving it a more stable and higher-profit way to earn money.
Importantly, this growth hasn’t weakened the bank’s foundations. Sampath Bank is managing its funding costs better, partly by improving its low-cost current and savings account (CASA) ratio to 34.5%. Moreover, the quality of its loans is getting better, with bad loans (Stage 3) dropping to 3.77% and the money set aside to cover potential losses rising to a careful 60.25%.
Even with the new, higher capital requirements for systemically important banks, the bank remains very strong, keeping its capital and cash buffers robust and well above the minimum standards.
In short, while the estimated profit for 2025 was adjusted slightly, the bank’s excellent performance and strong strategy overshadow this minor change. Sampath Bank is viewed as a sound stock with high growth potential , offering investors attractive total returns over the next two years.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
ADB approves $200 million to improve water and food security in North Central Sri Lanka
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $200 million loan to support the ongoing Mahaweli Development Program, Sri Lanka’s largest multiuse water resources development initiative.
The program aims to transfer excess water from the Mahaweli River to the drier northern and northwestern parts of Sri Lanka. The Mahaweli Water Security Investment Program Stage 2 Project will directly benefit more than 35,600 farming households in the North Central Province by strengthening agriculture sector resilience and enhancing food security.
ADB leads the joint cofinancing effort for the project, which is expected to mobilize $60 million from the OPEC Fund for International Development and $42 million from the International Fund for Agricultural Development, in addition to the ADB financing.
“While Sri Lanka has reduced food insecurity, it remains a development challenge for the country,” said ADB Country Director for Sri Lanka Takafumi Kadono. “Higher agricultural productivity and crop diversification are necessary to achieve food security, and adequate water resources and disaster-resilient irrigation systems are key.”
The project will complete the government’s North Central Province Canal (NCPC) irrigation infrastructure, which is expected to irrigate about 14,912 hectares (ha) of paddy fields and provide reliable irrigated water for commercial agriculture development (CAD). It will help complete the construction of tunnels and open and covered canals. The project will also establish a supervisory control and data acquisition system to improve NCPC operations. Once completed, the NCPC will connect the Moragahakanda Reservoir to the reservoirs of Huruluwewa, Manankattiya, Eruwewa, and Mahakanadarawa.
Sri Lanka was hit by Cyclone Ditwah in late November, resulting in the country’s worst flood in two decades and the deadliest natural hazard since the 2004 tsunami. The disaster damaged over 160,000 ha of paddy fields along with nearly 96,000 ha of other crops and 13,500 ha of vegetables.
Business
ComBank to further empower women-led enterprises with NCGIL
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has reaffirmed its long-standing commitment to advancing women’s empowerment and financial inclusion, by partnering with the National Credit Guarantee Institution Limited (NCGIL) as a Participating Shareholder Institution (PSI) in the newly introduced ‘Liya Shakthi’ credit guarantee scheme, designed to support women-led enterprises across Sri Lanka.
The operational launch of the scheme was marked by the handover of the first loan registration at Commercial Bank’s Head Office recently, symbolising a key step in broadening access to finance for women entrepreneurs.
Representing Commercial Bank at the event were Mithila Shyamini, Assistant General Manager – Personal Banking, Malika De Silva, Senior Manager – Development Credit Department, and Chathura Dilshan, Executive Officer of the Department. The National Credit Guarantee Institution was represented by Jude Fernando, Chief Executive Officer, and Eranjana Chandradasa, Manager-Guarantee Administration.
‘Liya Shakthi’ is a credit guarantee product introduced by the NCGIL to facilitate greater access to financing for women-led Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that possess viable business models and sound repayment capacity but lack adequate collateral to secure traditional bank loans.
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