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What’s happening in Sri Lanka and how did the economic crisis start?

Published

4 years ago

2022/04/17

By R Ramakumar, Professor of Economics, Tata Institute of Social Sciences

The island nation of Sri Lanka is in the midst of one of the worst economic crises it’s ever seen. It has just defaulted on its foreign debts for the first time since its independence, and the country’s 22 million people are facing crippling 12-hour power cuts, and an extreme scarcity of food, fuel and other essential items such as medicines.

Inflation is at an all-time high of 17.5%, with prices of food items such as a kilogram of rice soaring to 500 Sri Lankan rupees when it would normally cost around 80 rupees. Amid shortages, one 400g packet of milk powder is reported to cost over 250 rupees, when it usually costs around 60 rupees.

On April 1, President Gotabaya Rajpaksa declared a state of emergency. In less than a week, he withdrew it following massive protests by angry citizens over the government’s handling of the crisis.

The country relies on the import of many essential items including petrol, food items and medicines. Most countries will keep foreign currencies on hand in order to trade for these items, but a shortage of foreign exchange in Sri Lanka is being blamed for the sky-high prices.

Many believe Sri Lanka’s economic relations with China are a main driver behind the crisis. The United States has called this phenomenon debt-trap diplomacy . This is where a creditor country or institution extends debt to a borrowing nation to increase the lender’s political leverage if the borrower extends itself and cannot pay the money back, they are at the creditor’s mercy.

However, loans from China accounted for only about 10% of Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt in 2020. The largest portion about 30% can be attributed to international sovereign bonds. Japan actually accounts for a higher proportion of their foreign debt, at 11%.

Defaults over China’s infrastructure-related loans to Sri Lanka, especially the financing of the Hambantota port, are being cited as factors contributing to the crisis.

But these facts don’t add up. The construction of the Hambantota port was financed by the Chinese Exim Bank. The port was running losses, so Sri Lanka leased out the port for 99 years to the Chinese Merchant’s Group, which paid Sri Lanka US 1.12 billion.

So the Hambantota port fiasco did not lead to a balance of payments crisis (where more money or exports are going out than coming in), it actually bolstered Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves by US 1.12 billion.

Post-independence from the British in 1948, Sri Lanka’s agriculture was dominated by export-oriented crops such as tea, coffee, rubber and spices. A large share of its gross domestic product came from the foreign exchange earned from exporting these crops. That money was used to import essential food items.

Over the years, the country also began exporting garments, and earning foreign exchange from tourism and remittances (money sent into Sri Lanka from abroad, perhaps by family members). Any decline in exports would come as an economic shock, and put foreign exchange reserves under strain.

For this reason, Sri Lanka frequently encountered balance of payments crises. From 1965 onwards, it obtained 16 loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Each of these loans came with conditions including that once Sri Lanka received the loan they had to reduce their budget deficit, maintain a tight monetary policy, cut government subsidies for food for the people of Sri Lanka, and depreciate the currency (so exports would become more viable).

But usually in periods of economic downturns, good fiscal policy dictates governments should spend more to inject stimulus into the economy. This becomes impossible with the IMF conditions. Despite this situation, the IMF loans kept coming, and a beleaguered economy soaked up more and more debt.

The last IMF loan to Sri Lanka was in 2016. The country received US 1.5 billion for three years from 2016 to 2019. The conditions were familiar, and the economy’s health nosedived over this period. Growth, investments, savings and revenues fell, while the debt burden rose.

A bad situation turned worse with two economic shocks in 2019. First, there was a series of bomb blasts in churches and luxury hotels in Colombo in April 2019. The blasts led to a steep decline in tourist arrivals with some reports stating up to an 80% drop and drained foreign exchange reserves. Second, the new government under President Gotabaya Rajapaksa irrationally cut taxes.

Value-added tax rates (akin to some nations’ goods and services taxes) were cut from 15% to 8%. Other indirect taxes such as the nation building tax, the pay-as-you-earn tax and economic service charges were abolished. Corporate tax rates were reduced from 28% to 24%. About 2% of the gross domestic product was lost in revenues because of these tax cuts.

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck. In April 2021, the Rajapaksa government made another fatal mistake. To prevent the drain of foreign exchange reserves, all fertiliser imports were completely banned. Sri Lanka was declared a 100% organic farming nation. This policy, which was withdrawn in November 2021, led to a drastic fall in agricultural production and more imports became necessary.

But foreign exchange reserves remained under strain. A fall in the productivity of tea and rubber due to the ban on fertiliser also led to lower export incomes. Due to lower export incomes, there was less money available to import food and food shortages arose.

Because there is less food and other items to buy, but no decrease in demand, the prices for these goods rise. In February 2022, inflation rose to 17.5%.

n all probability, Sri Lanka will now obtain a 17th IMF loan to tide over the present crisis, which will come with fresh conditions.

A deflationary fiscal policy will be followed, which will further limit the prospects of economic revival and exacerbate the sufferings of the Sri Lankan people. (PTI)

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PM participated in ’Swarnabhivandana 2026,’ Sacred Relic Veneration Ceremony

Published

5 hours ago

2026/05/4

Priyan

In line with the 2026 Vesak Poya Day, the ‘Swarnabhivandana 2026’ Sacred Relic Veneration ceremony, organized by the Sri Sudarshanarama Temple, Kiribathgoda under the guidance of the Chief incumbent of the temple, and the Head of the Department of Pali and Buddhist Studies at the University of Ruhuna and a Senior Lecturer Ven. Makola Mangala Nayaka was held on 3rd of May with the participation of Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya.

The Prime Minister stated that it was a rare privilege to take part in such a noble religious event. She noted that devotees have been presented with a rare opportunity to venerate sacred relics, including those of the Supreme Buddha and Maha Arahants of Seewali, Angulimala, Anuruddha, and Mihindu Theros.

She further emphasized that such religious programmes contribute to the spiritual development of society and help invoke blessings upon the country.

The Prime Minister also expressed her sincere gratitude to the Chief Incumbent Thero for his guidance in successfully organizing this meritorious event, as well as to the Dayaka Sabha of the temple and all those who contributed with dedication.

[Prime Minister’s Media Division]

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Heat Index at Caution Level in the Northern, North-central, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and North-western provinces and in Colombo, Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts during the day time

Published

12 hours ago

2026/05/4

Priyan

Warm Weather Advisory
Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre
Issued at 3.30 p.m. on 03 May 2026, valid for 04 May 2026.

The Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Northern, North-central, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and North-western provinces and in Colombo, Gampaha, Hambantota and Monaragala districts during the day time.

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.

Effect of the heat index on the human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.

News

USD 3.7 bn H’tota refinery: China won’t launch project without bigger local market share

Published

12 hours ago

2026/05/4

Thilina Walpola

China has declared that China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC) will not proceed with the USD 3.7 bn Hambantota oil refinery project unless a consensus could be reached on the percentage of the output that could be sold in the local market.

China has informed the NPP government that SINOPECwill not be able to sustain the project in terms of the original agreement that stipulated that 80% of the output be exported and 20 % sold in the Sri Lankan market, according to sources familiar with the issue.

Once fully operational, the strategic facility will be able to process 200,000 barrels of crude oil a day. The proposed facility, together with the Hambantota International port, which was taken over by China in 2017 on a 99-year lease, emphasise significant Chinese presence in the country.

SINOPEC with about 12% market share is among the foreign companies engaged in fuel distribution in Sri Lanka at the moment. Other foreign players are Lanka India Oil Company (LIOC) and joint venture by Shell Brands International AG (Shell) and RM Parks (Private) Limited, the latter being the latest entrant.

LIOC entered the market way back in 2003 during Ranil Wickremesinghe’s tenure as the Prime Minister. LIOC holds the second biggest market share with 211 fuel stations with SINOPEC being third and joint Shell Brands International AG (Shell) and RM Parks (Private) Limited in fourth place. CPC remains the market leader with some 800 odd fuel stations countrywide.

Sources said that whatever the Chinese and Sri Lankan government representatives said in public the launch of the project primarily would depend on a new formula. The Island learns that the Chinese expect to sell 30% of the output here. “The Chinese are of the view that 20% share is not sufficient to sustain the project,” sources said.

Sri Lanka and China in January 2025 announced plans for the SINOPEC project dubbed the largest single Chinese direct investment here following President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s three-day state visit to Beijing. Dissanayake’s delegation included Minister of Foreign Affairs, Employment and Tourism Vijitha Herath, Minister of Transport, Highways, Ports and Civil Aviation Bimal Rathnayake, and Sri Lankan Ambassador to China, Majintha Jayesinghe. Outspoken Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Qi Zhenhong was also present at all key meetings with representatives of China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC Group), China Communications Construction Company Ltd (CCCC), China Merchants Group (CMG), Huawei, and BYD Auto, a leading company in the automobile manufacturing sector.

Pointing out that Sri Lanka and China hadn’t been able to resolve the knotty problem for about 15 months, sources said that Sri Lanka was also under pressure from India to expedite the Trincomalee oil tank farm development project. Sri Lanka finalized an agreement with India and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in early April 2025 to develop Trincomalee as an energy hub.

Sources said that in line with the overall plans involving China as well as India-UAE, Sri Lanka was required to enhance the fuel storage facilities as soon as possible. The ongoing West Asia conflict underscored the responsibility on the part of the incumbent dispensation to take tangible measures to enhance storage facilities.

The Trincomalee and Hambantota projects could be on a collision course, sources said. The likelihood of Indo-Lanka agreements in respect of WW two era oil tank farms in Trincomalee, particularly the one negotiated during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency having animpact on the Hambantota oil refinery couldn’t be ruled out, sources said.

President Dissanayake during his May Day address disclosed the crisis faced by his government in ensuring uninterrupted oil supplies. Dissanayake said that the government had no option but to increase fuel quotas given to various categories in view of the arrival of fuel ships in Colombo as Sri Lanka lacked storage facilities.

Sources said that energy insecurity was at stake due to the continuing instability in the global markets caused by US actions in Hormuz Strait.

Newly-appointed Energy Minister Anura Karunathilake is believed to be engaged in consultations with relevant parties. Earlier Punyakumara Dissanayake who resigned recently over the coal scam handled the Hambantota refinery matter.

by Shamindra Ferdinando