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Lockdowns, travel restrictions and basics for control of Covid-19 third wave

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Vehicles moving towards Colombo, along the Negombo Road, during lockdowns

 

By Dr. Pradeep Kariyawasam
Former Chief Medical Officer
Chairman, Standing Committee on Health/CMC

The 14-day ‘Lockdown’ or so called ‘Travel Restrictions’ to prevent the further spread of the Covid-19 virus which later became a 21-day event ended on Monday (21).

The inevitable happened in April this year after we were lax in taking the timely decisions. In January this year I warned through your newspaper about the possibility of the UK variant B 1.1.7. (now called Alpha) arriving in the country. Many who came over from the UK were in protective bubbles or in quarantine centres, before they were allowed out in the community and that included the English Cricket team. There could have been others infected with the virus that arrived from the UK. Considering that the PCR tests show only 70 % of infected persons as being positive for the disease, so many others could escape being detected with Covid-19 and be symptomless carriers.

It is interesting that the virus has spread to a lot of areas before it was found but details are sketchy. We don’t know whether there were unconnected cases in the community. So, maybe it was here for a few months before the existence was confirmed in April this year. What happened to our surveillance system operated by the Epidemiology Unit? The lowering of the number of PCR or antigen tests may be the reason why this was not detected earlier, and lower infection rates that were shown since February this year were not factually correct. Then, when the first notification of the possibility of the arrival of the virus was made on the 8th of April 2021, the immediate reaction should have been to order a total Lockdown at least in the Western Province. Timeliness is the most important factor in controlling epidemics. But then it was important to have the New Year festivities and here we are. We now have to take urgent informed action to control the present outbreak post Lockdown. Otherwise, it would be catastrophic for the country.

Looking at the present situation, the six strains of Covid-19 virus in the country at present are detectable now, and the areas where each is located are mapped at least by the district. When patients were found mainly Grama Niladhari Divisions were brought under lockdown to control the spread. Some were opened after a few days or weeks. This was hardly enough to stop this epidemic spreading. There seems to have been no coordinated efforts by the stakeholders. While politicians have to listen to the people’s social and economic woes, the health authorities have to impose conditions laid out in the Quarantine and Prevention of Diseases Ordinance. The Mayor or the Medical Officer of Health is the Authority to implement the conditions in this Ordinance at local level and therefore it is seen that the Municipal Councils or Town Councils have a role to play during this period, too. But this did not take place and while some politicians had a field day others got into confrontations.

 

Spreading like wildfire

While local lockdowns may have worked in the peripheral areas in the short term, such small lockdowns could have been ineffective, useless and dangerous in areas where large crowds live. These are towns and cities, where a large number of slum and shanty areas and middle-class Housing complexes are situated side-by-side allowing the disease to spread like wildfire. The solution for such areas was vaccination of all people at least over the age of 30. But it did not take place as that was not a priority, and then there was a vaccine shortage. The rich had an unfair share of the vaccines which is happening even today. I hope they will realize that by vaccinating the people in the poorer areas we could stop the spread into their areas. These people live in small poorly ventilated slums or rooms, sometimes 5-6 in a room, that create ideal situations for virus transmission unlike in richer areas. Although mutations take place all over the world creating new variants, and will continue until Covid-19 goes away, most of the vaccines seem to be holding well against them. The infected people plus vaccinated persons will create herd immunity but only vaccinations can prevent massive infections and mutations quickly so that there isn’t much of a damage to the society. The toll of this traumatic experience for many cannot be measured individually or as a society. Families have suffered socially, economically and some have already lost their beloved ones. The deaths of pregnant women and infants show how traumatic the experience could be not only to the family but also to the health staff.

Lockdowns themselves will not stop the spread among the people unless they are properly policed. This is what happened in the recent days where 60-70 thousand vehicles entered the city every day. That is nearly 100,000 entering the city! In poorer settlements life is continuing like on any other normal day with people roaming around within their area. But then they cannot engage in work! So, lockdowns seem to be for the poor and “travel restriction” are for the rich. Scientists have identified that the virus stays alive in the body only for 6-7 days, so a quarantine period or a proper lockdown of 21 days would suffice to clear an area of the virus. We need 21 days as the incubation period could be up to 10-14 days and after getting infected, the virus will be dead by 6 to 7 days. Of course, there are outliers to this range.These days the number of new patients found daily are around 2200-2400 which shows that an upward trend has been checked and that is good news.

 

Achieving good results

To achieve good results the law enforcement agents and field staff of the Health Departments should build positive relationships with their community, respect civil rights and not impose unnecessary hard and fast rules which may be counter-productive. With the threat looming due to the UK’s Alpha and other new variants, we have to prevent the disease spreading but at the same time see that socially and economically people are not that affected, as for more than a year they have undergone immense hardships. This is so, especially with the farmers and middle level traders, who are unable to trade or sell their crops due to sudden closures and lockdowns.

‘Live with the virus’ should be the slogan for the next few months. TV footages showed vendors with perishable items such as vegetables and fruits told all of a sudden to pack up and go from road side, fairs or economic centres. I understand the police have been given orders but then these people should have been handled more humanely. Perhaps they also should be allowed to sell the products while maintaining health conditions. Consumers should be told that only one person is allowed near a street vendor at a time and they should stand in queues with a two-metre social distance between them waiting for their turn. Small scale shops should be allowed to open and only one person per four square metres should be allowed inside the shops, and others should stay outside waiting for their turn so that there won’t be a rush to buy food stuff and other items. This is much better than getting vendors in mobile vehicles from other areas. The government should order that paying leasing charges or rents for vehicles, shops should be postponed or halved for this period and allow the dues to be gradually paid after the lockdown.

 

Communication breakdown

Unfortunately, the communication between the government agencies and the people at large have broken down. There is no direct communication with the poor people, the most vulnerable sections of our society, and they are not organized although civil societies exist. The people are apprehensive about the actions of the law enforcement officers and the Public Health Inspectors. Usually, in Colombo Health Educators and Instructors communicated well with the people, spreading out the health messages in an appropriate manner. We had at least 300 active Community Development Councils in the city before 2015. Today we don’t have that system anymore. The result is disorganized communities in the cities especially in the urban slums and marginalized apartment complexes. During the second wave around 100 people died in their homes in Colombo without medical help. Prevention and control of disease spread therefore has become impossible as there is no community participation. More informal health education actions should be carried out visiting the probable high-risk areas and action should be taken to look into various needs of the people in locked down areas whether it is the rice, fruits and vegetables, dry rations, curry powder, cooking oil, gas or whatever basic things they need, or simply help them to sell their wares.

 

Need for proper data

So, what should be done to rein in the virus and stop this menace? First, in future we have to take quick, strong and timely action to stop the transmission of the disease. For that we need proper data and maps before taking decisions. The government should not allow any organisation impose their will by coming out with various unproductive and social destructive proposals. Years ago, there were so many Epidemiologists who were highly trained, mainly abroad, but I just don’t see the Epidemiology Unit in the fore-front of Covid-19 control now. I think the government should bring back those who have retired and put each province under one of them. The data provided now is not worth to take informed decisions. There should be enough young medical officers with IT knowledge who can bring out great analyzed data and maps who can be put to work at the main Unit. The prevention and control should involve the following actions for outbreak response: surveillance of patients and contact tracing, laboratory testing, case management at home and hospital level, infection prevention and control, travel restrictions, lockdowns, epidemiological and outbreak analytics, dissemination of information to relevant officials and most importantly to the general public, logistics, risk communication and community engagement. Lockdowns are may be a short-term strategy but not desirable in the long-term as a strategy and what should be done is to place systems in place and building up capacities not only of the health staff but also of the general public for short and swift actions to prevent the spread of the virus.

 

How to stop transmission

With regard to travel restrictions the strategy should be based on the notion that when people stop moving the virus also stops moving and if it stops moving then it dies away. Data has shown that 8 out of 10 people should stay at home for the corona virus to be controlled. This is an important message as sometimes even the vaccinated get ill. So, what can be done? What can be suggested is that at any time or any day both the Public and the Private Sectors should have only 20% of their office staff at work at least until the end of September this year. All government departments, businesses or institutions should have their own Covid-19 prevention Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and health protocols in place catering to the specific needs of such places. This is important especially for government institutions. Inter district travel should be only for the essential staff. The manufacturing industry can have all their staff in bubbles by providing the staff with lodgings. The factories should have 50% of the staff but with longer working hours having weekly rotations. The same goes for the building industry. They can have night shifts. The staff can be allowed home once a fortnight after being checked by a physician whether they have the symptoms. They should also be given a place in the priority list for vaccinations. In any case if they have the disease the others also will get ill by that time and then the whole group could be quarantined together. Private transport for the staff is important and that goes for the government workers also. Similarly, others also can make arrangements after obtaining medical opinion by those who are involved in Covid-19 prevention. Those drivers and conductors in the transport services also should be vaccinated as a priority.

The Covid-19 Prevention Task Force should work in smaller sub-committees: Disease Control; Security; Logistics, Vaccine procurement and delivery; Hospital Management; Economics, Manufacturing, Agriculture and Trade; Ambulance Service, etc., and meet the Task Force with their own decisions which should be conveyed at the meetings with the Head of the Government. That meeting should be for only the key officials from these sub-committees or those who are invited specially to hear their opinions. Those who come with different opinions should be given a chance to voice their concerns at each level. Public Health staff should engage with local communities in the MOH areas to build trust for evidence-based actions to detect possible cases and encourage local leaders to support outbreak control response measures. Strategic decisions with regard to control measures should be taken at central level by an Expert Panel comprising of Epidemiologists, Virologists, Public Health and Hospital administrators. Keep out the ‘Wannabe Epidemiologists’ stupid ideas such as vaccinate people in ‘Virgin Areas’. They do more harm than good as too many cooks spoil the soup. A true Epidemiologist with years of experience gets a gut feeling of what should be done next. Ambulance Services should be combined and coordinated by one sub-committee. All vacancies for health staff should be filled at least temporarily especially, those in the public health workforce. Border control should be strict especially in the northern seas to prevent delta virus not entering the country. Fishermen should be told not to mix with Indian fishermen. All decisions should be based on guidelines, policies and decisions of the Task Force or Presidential directives based on worked out strategies, the analyzed information, maps, risk assessments, and the epidemiological situation. The basic messages to the general public should be to wear a mask, wash the hands, keep social distance, get vaccinated, go for self-isolation and get medical help if they suspect they have the disease, home quarantine if required etc.

 

Equitable treatment 

On the side of the authorities, they must ensure equitable treatment of all people, free equitable access to diagnostic tests, therapy, and vaccines, which should be allocated according to worked out criteria and needs. The Local NGOs and INGOs should be roped in to help whatever way without getting involved in decision making and politicians should be involved only for organizing the people for PCR testing or for vaccination programmes.

It is a must to have proper communications with people in the area and the health staff comprising of the field officers are the best to do this. Secondly, in future lockdowns must cover larger land areas than at present. For example, if patients are found in a certain Grama Sevaka (GS) Division then lock down the surrounding GS areas too as obviously people don’t contain themselves to their own areas but would have gone into other close-by areas also even before the virus was detected by PCR or antigen testing. If there is a cluster of GS divisions affected then the MOH areas or even Districts should be locked down. However, the essential health staff should be allowed to go to work and trading of essential items should be allowed. Every household should be issued with a card where only one person at a time is allowed outside to go to buy needed items. If these measures still don’t work out then curfew should be declared in such areas again for at least two weeks and see the progress. What has been mentioned above are the basics that should be attended to stop the third wave but not an exhaustive one.

 

Natural decline or vaccination

What will finally stop this epidemic is natural decline or vaccination of the population as Israel did for their citizens. The latter should be our priority. People should as early as possible get their doses of the Covid-19 vaccine, whether it is the AstraZeneca, Sputnik V, Sinopharm or Pfizer vaccine that is available in their area. If we want to stop large scale deaths as in India this should be done immediately. We don’t want this to happen especially in cities such as Colombo, Kandy or Jaffna. Vaccine mis-use, pilferage, selling, and only the privileged getting the injections should be stopped forthwith. Now that the health and armed forces staff are given the vaccines the next priority should be various field staff, staff members of private and public institutions who are in direct contact with customers, traders, shopkeepers, and people in high population density areas where the disease affected large numbers and decisions should not be based on their connections, power or money. Hope we will stick to basics of epidemiology and control this third wave, and see that all are safe in this country.



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Driving high-tech exports: The pivotal role of R&D

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High-tech exports serve as a critical driver of economic growth and global competitiveness for nations. In an era marked by rapid technological advancements and globalization, the ability of a country to expand its high-tech exports hinges significantly on its investment in research and development (R&D). By fostering innovation, enhancing product quality, and improving production efficiency, R&D plays a pivotal role in determining a country’s success in the high-tech export sector. This essay explores the significance of R&D in driving high-tech exports, highlighting its impact on product innovation, international competitiveness, and economic sustainability. Figure 1 compares High-Tech Exports among India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. (See Graph 01)

The Link Between R&D and High-Tech Exports

R&D is the backbone of high-tech industries, enabling firms to develop cutting-edge products and services that cater to evolving global market demands. Technological innovations, resulting from R&D investments, enhance the quality, efficiency, and uniqueness of products, making them more attractive to international buyers. Countries with robust R&D ecosystems, such as the United States, Germany, and South Korea, have consistently led the world in high-tech exports. Their ability to create and commercialize innovative technologies underscores the direct correlation between R&D spending and export growth in the high-tech sector. Figure 2 compares High-Tech Exports and Research and Development expenses among India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. (See Graph 2)

Figure 3 shows a comparison of High-Tech Exports and Research and Development expenses of Sri Lanka with Germany, Malaysia and the US. (See Graph 03)

Other Factors Influencing High-Tech Exports

While R&D is the primary driver of high-tech exports, several other factors also influence a country’s ability to compete in global technology markets. These include:

* Infrastructure and Logistics:

Efficient infrastructure, including transportation networks, digital connectivity, and advanced manufacturing facilities, is crucial for exporting high-tech products. However, without strong R&D, infrastructure alone cannot drive technological advancements.

* Trade Policies and Regulations:

Favourable trade policies, such as low tariffs, export incentives, and intellectual property protections, facilitate high-tech exports. Yet, without continuous innovation from R&D, trade policies alone cannot sustain competitiveness.

* Human Capital and Skilled Workforce:

A highly educated and technically skilled workforce is essential for high-tech industries. While talent is important, it must be complemented by R&D investments to create and commercialize innovations.

* Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

FDI brings capital, expertise, and market access, enhancing a country’s ability to export high-tech products. However, nations that do not invest in R&D risk becoming mere assembly hubs rather than innovation leaders.

* Access to Capital and Financial Support:

Access to venture capital, government funding, and financial incentives supports high-tech industries. Yet, financial resources alone do not guarantee technological progress without active R&D efforts.

Why R&D is the Most Powerful Factor

Despite the influence of these factors, R&D remains the most powerful driver of high-tech exports because it is the source of continuous innovation and competitive advantage. Infrastructure, policies, human capital, and financial support can facilitate high-tech exports, but without groundbreaking research and new technological developments, a country risks stagnation in global markets. Nations that lead in high-tech exports—such as the US, Japan, and China—have consistently prioritized R&D, enabling them to pioneer new technologies and set industry standards.

Enhancing International Competitiveness

A strong R&D culture equips businesses with the ability to maintain a competitive edge in global markets. By developing proprietary technologies and advanced manufacturing processes, firms can reduce production costs, improve product functionality, and increase overall efficiency. This, in turn, enhances their competitive standing in international markets, allowing them to secure long-term trade relationships. Additionally, R&D-driven innovation fosters brand reputation and consumer trust, leading to increased demand for high-tech exports.

Economic Sustainability and Knowledge-Based Growth

Investing in R&D facilitates long-term economic sustainability by transitioning economies from resource-based models to knowledge-driven ones. High-tech exports contribute significantly to GDP growth, employment generation, and foreign exchange earnings. Countries that prioritize R&D in their high-tech sectors experience increased productivity, reduced dependency on traditional industries, and higher value-added output. Moreover, R&D fosters entrepreneurship and the development of start-ups, further strengthening the high-tech export ecosystem.

The Role of Government Policies and Industry Collaboration

Governments play a crucial role in fostering R&D through policy frameworks, financial incentives, and strategic collaborations. Public-private partnerships, tax incentives, and funding for research institutions are essential mechanisms that stimulate innovation. Additionally, collaboration between universities and industries facilitates technology transfer and the commercialization of research outcomes, leading to the development of exportable high-tech products.

The most appropriate and suitable types of R&D for driving high-tech exports include:

1. Applied Research

Applied research is crucial for fostering high-tech exports as it focuses on developing new technologies with immediate commercial applications. Unlike basic research, which is theoretical in nature, applied research is directed toward practical outcomes that enhance global competitiveness. For example, advancements in nanotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) have significantly contributed to the global expansion of semiconductor and automation industries. Furthermore, applied research helps in bridging the gap between scientific discovery and market implementation, ensuring that new technologies can be effectively utilized in high-tech exports.

2. Product Development R&D

Product development R&D plays a key role in creating innovative products with unique features, enabling firms to differentiate themselves in international markets. It involves activities, such as prototype testing, performance enhancement, and feature innovation, which contribute to the competitive advantage of high-tech firms. For instance, the global smartphone industry continuously invests in R&D to develop new functionalities, improve user experience, and introduce cutting-edge designs, thereby sustaining consumer demand in highly competitive markets. The strategic focus on product innovation allows firms to maintain premium pricing and brand loyalty in high-tech sectors.

3. Process Innovation R&D

Process innovation R&D enhances production efficiency and cost-effectiveness, making high-tech exports more competitive in price-sensitive markets. This type of R&D focuses on improving manufacturing techniques, reducing waste, and integrating automation to optimize resource utilization. For example, the use of additive manufacturing (3D printing) in aerospace and biomedical industries has resulted in cost reductions and faster production cycles, leading to improved market penetration of high-tech exports. Companies that invest in process innovation are able to achieve economies of scale and maintain long-term cost advantages in global markets.

4. Collaborative R&D

Collaborative R&D, involving partnerships between academia, industry, and government, accelerates the commercialization of new technologies. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) facilitate knowledge exchange, reduce R&D costs, and increase the likelihood of successful innovation. A notable example is the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme, which funds cross-border collaborative research to enhance industrial competitiveness and technological leadership. Additionally, collaboration between multinational corporations and research institutions has led to breakthrough innovations in biotechnology, renewable energy, and telecommunications. By leveraging diverse expertise and shared resources, collaborative R&D enhances the scalability and global reach of high-tech exports.

5. Market-Driven R&D

Market-driven R&D aligns research efforts with global consumer trends and regulatory requirements to maximize export potential. Unlike traditional R&D approaches that focus solely on technological advancements, market-driven R&D emphasizes consumer needs, sustainability, and compliance with international standards. For example, the increasing demand for environmentally friendly products has prompted R&D investments in electric vehicles (EVs) and sustainable packaging solutions, ensuring market acceptance and regulatory approval in various regions. Companies that integrate market intelligence into their R&D strategies are better positioned to develop products that meet international demand, enhance brand reputation, and drive high-tech export growth.

Conclusion

R&D stands as a cornerstone in driving high-tech exports, shaping a nation’s ability to compete in the global economy. While factors such as infrastructure, trade policies, human capital, FDI, and financial support play a role in high-tech exports, they are secondary to the fundamental necessity of continuous innovation. By fostering technological advancements, enhancing competitiveness, and promoting economic sustainability, R&D investments serve as the ultimate catalyst for high-tech export growth. Countries aiming to strengthen their high-tech export sectors must prioritize R&D policies and create an ecosystem that supports innovation, ensuring long-term prosperity in an increasingly technology-driven world.

Investing in different types of R&D is essential for fostering high-tech exports. Applied research drives technological advancements, product development R&D ensures market differentiation, and process innovation R&D enhances cost efficiency. Additionally, collaborative R&D accelerates innovation through strategic partnerships, while market-driven R&D ensures alignment with global consumer trends and regulatory standards. A comprehensive approach that incorporates all these R&D types will enable firms to sustain their competitive advantage and expand their presence in the global high-tech market.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT University, Malabe. He is also the author of the “Doing Social Research and Publishing Results”, a Springer publication (Singapore), and “Samaja Gaveshakaya (in Sinhala). The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the institution he works for. He can be contacted at saliya.a@slit.lk and www.researcher.com)

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Will NPP continue Sri Lanka’s path of Economic Suicide?

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By Sunil Abhayawardhana

Though Sri Lanka has a new government, its first budget for 2025 remains within the conditions and targets of the ongoing IMF programme (which will continue until the end of 2027).

A major shortfall in the budget is the lack of a ‘developmental thrust,’ which is essential for the country to grow out of the current crisis. Rather than discussing the minutiae of the budget, it is worth looking at how Sri Lanka got into this situation by making the same mistakes over and over again.

Though these mistakes can be pointed out, mainstream economists prefer to stick to the outdated textbook economics taught at university even when proven wrong. Therefore, the best way to bring up Sri Lanka’s mistakes is through a comparative approach with the High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs).

Missed Opportunities

At independence in 1948, Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) was expected to develop rapidly due to advantages such as its strategic location, which was expected to be a multiplier by itself. This ‘strategic location’ has not fully been made use of to this day.

The oil tank farm in Trincomalee was a big storage facility in 1948. If the government had negotiated to buy the facility from the British (which was finally done in 1965 for 250,000 sterling pounds) and set up a refinery, Trincomalee could have become the oil hub of Asia, long before Singapore. This could have saved the country from the perennial forex crisis that it had to deal with due to the diminishing returns from the plantation economy.

The plantation economy had reached its peak over two decades before Independence and was not able to sustain a growing population. Yet, the immediate post-Independence governments did nothing about this. Though funds were available, there was a deficit in the thinking and a lack of vision for the future. The lack of immediate effort to diversify and industrialise the economy was the first act of economic suicide.

At around the same time, HPAEs such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan (China) embarked on their development programmes, which have brought results far exceeding their own expectations. What was it that the HPAEs got so right, and what did Sri Lanka get so wrong?

A comparison between Sri Lanka and the HPAEs brings up many differences. The four major points of interest that stand out were as follows:

1) No plan

2) Bad theory

3) Bad advice

4) Not understanding development

No Plan

A sovereign country should know where it wants to go and how it hopes to reach its objectives. This is normally expressed in a development plan that provides the public with a clear roadmap. A plan becomes more necessary when countries start out from a very low level of development. An initial burst of energy is required before markets can take over.

A fair amount of strategic thinking goes into the formulation of such a plan. It should take into account the natural and human resources available and the strategic sectors that need development. The plan should aim to keep the cost of development as low as possible.

In a country with different communities, the plan should also unite people to work towards a common objective. A development plan looks not only at growth but also at the pattern of growth. When growth becomes more widespread, it opens up more opportunities for the public.

All HPAEs began their journeys with development plans covering many decades. Some countries, like China and Vietnam, still adhere to five-year plans. Sri Lanka is the one country that tried to develop without a plan. The World Bank mission of 1952 recommended a planning process for Sri Lanka, though it was hardly implemented. The first Ten-Year Plan of 1959 (which took three years to formulate) was never implemented. The Five-Year Plan of 1972 was derailed by the 1973 oil shock.

While Sri Lanka struggled to plan, the HPAEs were already implementing their plans and seeing results. Sri Lanka drifted to depending on ad-hoc methods without long-term objectives. Even after 77 years of Independence, the country is still unable to identify the sectors for industrial development.

Bad Theory

At independence, the country did not have much know-how in economics. The few who had been educated in economics at the UK universities were taught neoclassical economics with a Keynesian tinge. The Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) was the guiding orthodoxy of the time. What the QTM says is that if the quantity of money is increased, there would be a corresponding increase in prices and therefore inflation.

However, the HPAEs realised that if new money was directed towards investment in productive industry, the result would be an expansion of the economy rather than inflation. The bulk of their funds for development came from monetary financing from the Central Bank. They would have taken inspiration from examples such as Canada in the 1940s and Japan in the 1930s, both of which used monetary financing for specific purposes.

Another point to note is the fact that all the HPAEs had multiple development banks, which helped in the development drive. In contrast, Sri Lanka got rid of its two development banks on advice from the West, thereby reducing the availability of long-term credit for the development process.

Due to Sri Lanka’s adherence to the QTM, we have had to rely on other methods of finance, which has created a dependency on foreign aid and a huge foreign currency debt. Though there is so much evidence that monetary financing used wisely can bring great results, many in Sri Lanka still adhere to the QTM. While most universities still teach the old concepts, it is sad that students at the master’s level and beyond do not think for themselves.

Bad Advice

When a country lacks knowledge and experience, it becomes necessary to seek advice from others. The World Bank and the IMF did perform this function in the early days. However, since the neoliberal onslaught, the purpose of these institutions has taken a more politicised turn.

The advice given by the IMF and other international advice has to be analysed, as it often turns out to be more damaging. For example, austerity has been proven to be counterproductive and causes more damage to the economy and social life. The present advice the government is receiving from the IMF, the CBSL, and the Ministry of Finance is no different.

When South Korean President Park Chung-Hee was offered Western economic advisors, he knew exactly what their advice would be. So, he declined the offer and obtained economic advisors from Japan instead.

Sri Lanka, on the other hand, accepted whatever came from the West. Our leaders accepted the ‘Washington Consensus,’ which we follow to this day, even though the author of the document, John Williamson, has himself declared it a dead document.

Economists advise governments towards suicidal actions without observing what has been done around the world before. There are political aspects to this bad advice. As there is an overproduction of global money, such bad advice is actually beneficial to the Western financial sector and its political interests.

Not Understanding Development

Sri Lanka has still not understood what development means. This can be seen from the fact that despite having a potential 30,000 MW of wind power generation, the government wants to give this opportunity to foreign companies and buy back the power with foreign exchange. Even the export potential is given to foreign companies, while local companies lose that opportunity.

If such a situation had been in any of the HPAEs, they would have first developed a local windmill manufacturing industry to meet their needs. That is what development is – developing productive capabilities and creating a productive ecosystem. There are many opportunities that Sri Lanka has missed because the concept of development has not been understood.

Had local inventors been encouraged and supported, a true industrial base would have been flourishing today. One example is Ray Wijewardene’s hand tractor, to which one Sri Lankan asked, “Why do we need hand tractors when there are so many buffaloes around?”. Imagine what the HPAEs would have done with a brilliant, innovative mind like Ray Wijewardene’s.

Even the few sectors of industry built up to world-class levels have been destroyed by bad government policy. One such industry was the heavy construction industry, which is vital for infrastructure development. A local company had built up its capacity to do international projects funded by the World Bank and had performed many projects in the country, but the change of policy after 1977 destroyed the company and opened the doors to foreign companies at inflated prices, for which the country struggles to pay off its loans.

The local highway construction projects are an example, where Sri Lanka’s highways are considered the most expensive in the world, which opened opportunities for corruption. The very first industry developed in the HPAEs was the heavy construction industry in order to keep the cost of development low. Sri Lanka did the opposite.

Conclusion

It is quite clear that Sri Lanka’s present position is of its own making, following quite the opposite of what the HPAEs did. However, though many learn from mistakes, Sri Lanka does not seem to have learnt any lessons. Our advisors keep telling us to repeat our mistakes, and we keep listening to them.

It was expected that the NPP government would make a radical change in thinking, but it has not expressed any meaningful change of thinking with regard to major issues. Without such a change, Sri Lanka will continue on its suicidal path.

(Sunil Abhayawardhana was CEO of Sri Lanka’s largest heavy construction company. He has a master’s degree from the University of Wales and is working on a PhD in economics. He is a member of the Asia Progress Forum, which is a collective of like-minded intellectuals, professionals, and activists dedicated to building dialogue that promotes Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, development, and leadership in the Global South. APF can be contacted at asiaprogressforum@gmail.com).

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Coping with Batalanda’s emergence to centre stage

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Bimal Ratnayake tabling the Batalanda report in Parliament recently.

by Jehan Perera

The Batalanda Commission report which goes into details of what happened during the JVP insurrection of 1987-89 has become the centre of public attention. The controversy has long been a point of contention and a reminder of the country’s troubled past and entrenched divisions that still exist. The events that occurred at Batalanda during the violent suppression of the JVP-led insurgency, remain a raw wound, as seen in the sudden resurfacing of the issue. The scars of violence and war still run deep. At a time when the country is grappling with pressing challenges ranging from economic recovery to social stability, there is a need to keep in focus the broader goal of unity for long-term peace and prosperity. But the ghosts of the past need also to be put to rest without continuing to haunt the present and future.

Grisly accounts of what transpired at Batalanda now fill the social media even in the Tamil media, though Tamils were not specifically targeted at that time. There was then a ceasefire between the government and LTTE. The Indo-Lanka Accord had just been signed and the LTTE were fighting the Indian peacekeeping army. The videos that are now circulating on social media would show the Tamil people that they were not the only ones at the receiving end of counter-terrorist measures. The Sinhalese were in danger then, as it was a rebellion of Sinhalese against the state. Sinhalese youth had to be especially careful.

It appears that former president Ranil Wickremesinghe was caught unprepared by the questions from a team from Al Jazeera television. The answers he gave, in which he downplayed the significance of the Batalanda Commission report have been viewed differently, depending on the perspective of the observer. He has also made a statement in which he has rejected the report. The report, which demands introspection, referred to events that had taken place 37 years earlier. But the ghosts of the past have returned. After the issue has come to the fore, there are many relatives and acquaintances of the victims from different backgrounds who are demanding justice and offering to come forward to give evidence of what they had witnessed. They need closure after so many years.

MORE POLARISATION

The public reaction to the airing of the Al Jazeera television programme is a reminder that atrocities that have taken place cannot be easily buried. The government has tabled the Batalanda Commission report in parliament and hold a two-day debate on it. The two days were to be consecutive but now the government has decided to space them out over two months. There is reason to be concerned about what transpires in the debate. The atrocities that took place during the JVP insurrection involved multiple parties. Batalanda was not the only interrogation site or the only torture chamber. There were many others. Former president Ranil Wickremesinghe was not the only prominent protagonist in the events that transpired at that time.

The atrocities of the late 1980s were not confined to one location, nor were they the responsibility of a single individual or group. The JVP engaged in many atrocities and human rights violations. In addition to members of the former government and military who engaged in counter-terrorism operations there were also other groups that engaged both in self-defence and mayhem. These included members of left political parties who were targeted by the JVP and who formed their own para-military groups. Some of the leaders went on to become ministers in succeeding governments and even represented Sri Lanka at international human rights forums. Even members of the present government will not be able to escape the fallout of the debate over the Batalanda Commission report.

If the debate becomes a battleground for assigning blame rather than seeking solutions, it could have far-reaching consequences for Sri Lanka’s social and political stability. Economic recovery, governance reform, and development require stability and cooperation. The present storm caused by the Batalanda Commission report, and the prospects for increased polarisation and hatred do not bode well for the country. Rather than engaging in potentially divisive debates that could lead to further entrenchment of opposing narratives, Sri Lanka would be better served by a structured and impartial approach to truth-seeking and reconciliation.

NATIONAL HEALING

Earlier this month at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, the government rejected the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights assertion that the external evidence gathering unit would continue to collect evidence on human rights violations in Sri Lanka. This evidence gathering unit has a mandate to collect information on a wide range of human rights violations including intimidation and killings of journalists but with a focus on the human rights violations and war crimes during the course of the LTTE war and especially at its end. The government’s position has been that it is determined to deal with human rights challenges including reconciliation through domestic processes.

Addressing the High-Level Segment of the 58th Regular Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva in February this year, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath said: “The contours of a truth and reconciliation framework, will be further discussed with the broadest possible cross section of stakeholders, before operationalisation to ensure a process that has the trust of all Sri Lankans. Our aim is to make the domestic mechanisms credible and sound within the constitutional framework. This will include strengthening the work towards a truth and reconciliation commission empowered to investigate acts of violence caused by racism and religious extremism that give rise to tensions within Sri Lankan society.”

The concept of a truth and reconciliation commission was first broached in 2015 by then prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government. In 2019 after winning the presidential elections, former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa too saw merit in the idea, but neither of these two leaders had the commitment to ensure that the process was completed. Promoting reconciliation in Sri Lanka among divergent political actors with violent political pasts requires a multi-faceted approach that blends political, social, and psychological strategies.

Given the country’s complex history of armed conflict, ethnic tensions, and political polarisation, the process must be carefully designed to build trust, address grievances, and create a shared vision for the future. A truth and reconciliation process as outlined in Geneva by the government, which has teeth in it for both punishment and amnesty, can give the country the time and space in which to uncover the painful truths and the path to national healing.

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