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Iran war threatens Sri Lanka’s fragile recovery; SMEs face “Survival Crisis” – Prof. Rohan de Silva

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Prof. Rohan De Silva President, Sri Lanka Chamber of Small & Medium Industries

Sri Lanka’s already fragile economic recovery—still reeling from the aftermath of the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Bombings, the pandemic, and the 2022 financial collapse—is now under renewed strain as the ongoing Iran war sends shockwaves through global energy, trade, and financial systems, experts warn.

Chartered Interior Architect and economic commentator Prof. Rohan de Silva cautioned that the Iran conflict is not an isolated external shock but a “multiplier crisis” that could severely undermine Sri Lanka’s recovery trajectory—particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of the economy.

Energy Shock Rekindles Crisis Conditions

At the heart of the emerging pressure is the sharp escalation in global oil prices and supply disruptions linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global energy flows.

“Sri Lanka, which already spends around USD 4 billion annually on fuel imports, is extremely vulnerable to such shocks,” Prof. de Silva said. “Any disruption in supply chains or price spikes will immediately translate into domestic inflation and reduced economic activity.”

The situation, he noted, could force authorities to revisit emergency measures reminiscent of the 2022 crisis, including fuel rationing, restricted working days, and reduced transport services—directly impacting productivity.

Inflation Surge and Currency Pressures

Rising oil prices are expected to trigger a fresh wave of cost-push inflation, affecting transport, food, and essential goods. Increased war-risk insurance and shipping delays are further inflating import costs, placing additional pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee and already strained foreign reserves.

“The real danger is a re-triggering of balance of payments stress,” Prof. de Silva warned. “Higher fuel import bills, combined with potential declines in remittances from the Middle East and weaker export earnings, could destabilize external accounts once again.”

Sri Lanka’s export sectors are also facing mounting challenges. Tea exports to Iran and Gulf markets risk disruption, while apparel shipments are being delayed due to rerouted shipping lanes and rising freight costs.

“Transit times are increasing by up to two weeks in some cases. That erodes competitiveness and reliability—two key pillars for export markets,” Prof. de Silva explained.

Industrial supply chains are similarly under strain, with delays in raw materials and petroleum-based inputs threatening production continuity across sectors.

However, the most severe impact is being felt by SMEs, which Prof. de Silva described as “financially exhausted after enduring repeated shocks since 2019.”

“These businesses have not fully recovered from the Easter attacks, COVID-19 shutdowns, and the 2022 economic collapse. Now, they are facing a fresh crisis that is simultaneously increasing costs and reducing demand,” he said.

Operating expenses—including fuel, electricity, and logistics—have surged sharply, while constrained transport and reduced working days are limiting both customer access and employee attendance.

“This is a classic margin squeeze. For many SMEs, profits are not just shrinking—they are disappearing,” he added.

Compounding the crisis is tightening access to finance. With interest rates remaining elevated to control inflation, banks are becoming increasingly risk-averse, leaving SMEs struggling to secure working capital.

At the same time, declining household purchasing power is dampening demand, particularly in non-essential sectors such as retail, interior design, and construction-related services.

“Consumers are cutting back. SMEs are losing revenue streams. It’s a dangerous cycle,” Prof. de Silva said.

Export-oriented SMEs are also facing order cancellations and payment delays from Middle Eastern buyers, further squeezing foreign exchange inflows.

Employment and Social Pressures Mount

The SME crisis is already spilling over into the labour market. Businesses are reducing staff, cutting working hours, or halting expansion plans altogether.

“If this trend continues, we could see rising unemployment and underemployment, particularly among youth,” Prof. de Silva warned.

He also highlighted the risk of returning migrant workers due to instability in Gulf economies, which could intensify domestic job market pressures.

A Multi-Shock Economy on Edge

Prof. de Silva stressed that Sri Lanka is now grappling with a cumulative “multi-shock cycle”:

2019 Easter attacks → Tourism collapse

COVID-19 pandemic → Prolonged shutdowns

2022 economic crisis → Currency and fuel collapse

Iran war → External energy, trade, and financial shock

“Each crisis has weakened the resilience of SMEs. What we are seeing now is not recovery, but survival,” he said.

Without targeted intervention, Prof. de Silva warned of widespread SME closures, job losses, and a prolonged delay in national economic recovery.

“The Iran war is amplifying every existing vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s economy. SMEs are at the frontline of this crisis—and without immediate policy support, the consequences could be severe and long-lasting,” he cautioned.

By Ifham Nizam



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Development deficit getting in the way of SL joining RCEP – Trade Ministry Secretary

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Principal panelists at Pathfinder Foundation forum.

Sri Lanka is not quite ready to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), since it is lacking sufficient development, Trade Ministry Secretary K.A. Vimalenthirarajah said.

‘At present the Trade Ministry is establishing Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP, which consists of 15 countries, through several channels, Vimalenthirarajah said at a recent round table discussion titled, ‘Sri Lanka’s Pathway to RCEP and the Emerging Global Trading Order’, organized by the Pathfinder Foundation and held at the Colombo Club, Taj Samudra.

‘Sri Lanka is actively accelerating its compliance efforts to join the 15-nation RCEP having submitted its required accession questionnaire in early 2026, he explained.

Vimalenthirarajah added: ‘The Cabinet has established a high-level policy and working committee and also obtained some technical assistance from multilateral partners because complying with RCEP requirements is challenging. Subsequently, this body responded to the follow-up questions that came up and had discussions with RCEP representatives and it expects more follow-up questions with regard to Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP.

‘Sri Lanka has also secured political and diplomatic support from current RCEP members, including Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, to facilitate its entry process.’

Meanwhile, state officials, including Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Deputy Minister Chathuranga Abeysinghe, are implementing key economic structural reforms, a new tariff policy, and transparent investment criteria required by the bloc. Because formal accession protocols for RCEP are still being finalized, Sri Lanka is also simultaneously negotiating bilateral trade and investment agreements with regional members to accelerate integration.

Abeysinghe, participating virtually in the event said that Sri Lanka cannot achieve sustained export growth and attract large-scale investment by relying solely on its domestic market. ‘As a small economy, the country’s future lies in deeper integration with regional and global value chains. RCEP connects 15 economies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, China and ASEAN member states, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of global trade, he explained.

Abeysinghe added: ‘Access to such a market would create new opportunities for Sri Lankan businesses, particularly the country’s Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which currently contribute only around 10 percent to national exports.

‘However, Sri Lanka is at least a decade behind in implementing many of the reforms required to fully participate in modern global trade. Recognizing this challenge, the government is now moving forward with several critical reforms: A new tariff policy to improve competitiveness and eliminate barriers to trade, transparent and predictable investment criteria, investment facilitation reforms to improve the ease of doing business, new legislation including the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act and SOE reforms to strengthen investor confidence and measures to improve investment protection and unlock new sources of capital, including venture capital and angel investment funds.

‘Sri Lanka’s exports currently stand at approximately US$ 17 billion and have grown only gradually over the years. Expanding market access through bilateral and multilateral agreements, while continuing domestic reforms, is essential if the country is to achieve its long-term economic ambitions.’

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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Pussalla Agri Ventures secures EU, USDA organic certs, paving way for high-value exports

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Roshan Ranawake, Managing Director of Control Union Sri Lanka, presents the certification to Philip J. Wewita, Chairman of Pussalla Agri Ventures (Pvt) Ltd, in the presence of Dr. Chamindi Jayasooriya, Director, and members of the Pussalla Agri Ventures team.

In a landmark development for Sri Lanka’s organic spice sector, Pussalla Agri Ventures has been awarded both EU Organic and USDA Organic certifications for its premium Ceylon cinnamon products. The certifications were officially conferred at Control Union Sri Lanka, signaling a major milestone in the company’s strategic transformation toward fully certified organic operations.

The recognition strengthens Pussalla Agri Ventures’ position as an emerging exporter of certified organic products, with its flagship offering, organic Ceylon cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum, also known as Cinnamomum zeylanicum), cultivated in Sri Lanka’s traditional cinnamon-growing regions.

Notably, the dual certification opens doors to some of the world’s most lucrative and compliance-driven organic markets, including the European Union and the United States.

Pussalla Agri Ventures began its structured transition into organic cinnamon cultivation several years ago, building a fully integrated system covering cultivation, processing, and value addition. The company currently manages extensive cinnamon cultivation lands and operates under strict organic agricultural principles, ensuring compliance with global certification standards.

These certifications, issued through Control Union Sri Lanka, validate that the company’s farming and processing systems meet rigorous international requirements, including restrictions on synthetic chemicals, comprehensive traceability controls, and environmental sustainability practices. These certifications add to an existing portfolio that already includes SL GAP, Food GMP, and Cosmetic GMP certifications.

Company representatives described the achievement as a “milestone” in the Pussalla organic journey, one that paves the way for expanded access to premium export markets in Europe and the United States. According to them, the certifications are expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly among health-conscious consumers and clean-label food brands.

Pussalla Agri Ventures emphasised that its organic cinnamon is sourced entirely from its own cultivated estates.

“This estate-to-exporter integration ensures full control over quality, traceability, and processing integrity. The company’s model allows cinnamon to be harvested, processed, and packed under continuously monitored conditions, maintaining strict alignment with international organic standards,” they noted.

Speaking further they said:

“Sri Lanka supplies the majority of the world’s True Ceylon Cinnamon, a spice prized for its delicate aroma, low coumarin levels, and reputed medicinal properties. The growing global demand for certified organic spices has created new opportunities for local producers who meet international compliance standards. Pussalla Agri Ventures’ certification achievement places it among a select group of Sri Lankan exporters adopting globally recognised organic systems, thereby enhancing the country’s reputation in high-value spice markets.”

“As organic food sales continue to rise in North America and Europe, certifications such as these are becoming essential rather than optional. For Pussalla Agri Ventures, the journey from conventional to certified organic is not merely a compliance exercise but a strategic repositioning aimed at long-term sustainability and premium pricing power.”

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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NCCSL to host seminar on data protection & privacy

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The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) will host a timely and insightful seminar titled “Data Protection & Privacy: Safeguarding Businesses in the Digital Era” on 18th June 2026, from 9.00 a.m. to 12.30 p.m., at the National Chamber of Commerce Auditorium, Colombo 10 with the objective of enhancing awareness among businesses on emerging cyber risks, data protection requirements, and digital security best practices.

As organizations increasingly rely on digital platforms, online transactions, cloud-based systems, and data-driven operations, protecting sensitive information and ensuring privacy compliance have become critical priorities for organizations of all sizes. The seminar aims to provide practical knowledge and strategic guidance to help businesses strengthen resilience against cyber threats while fostering trust and confidence among customers and stakeholders.

Interested parties are encouraged to register by contacting Udula – 0714034775/ 0114741788  | udula.nccsl@gmail.com or Nishanthi – 0762555707 | nishanthi@nationalchamber.lk

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