Business
Iran war threatens Sri Lanka’s fragile recovery; SMEs face “Survival Crisis” – Prof. Rohan de Silva
Sri Lanka’s already fragile economic recovery—still reeling from the aftermath of the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Bombings, the pandemic, and the 2022 financial collapse—is now under renewed strain as the ongoing Iran war sends shockwaves through global energy, trade, and financial systems, experts warn.
Chartered Interior Architect and economic commentator Prof. Rohan de Silva cautioned that the Iran conflict is not an isolated external shock but a “multiplier crisis” that could severely undermine Sri Lanka’s recovery trajectory—particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of the economy.
Energy Shock Rekindles Crisis Conditions
At the heart of the emerging pressure is the sharp escalation in global oil prices and supply disruptions linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global energy flows.
“Sri Lanka, which already spends around USD 4 billion annually on fuel imports, is extremely vulnerable to such shocks,” Prof. de Silva said. “Any disruption in supply chains or price spikes will immediately translate into domestic inflation and reduced economic activity.”
The situation, he noted, could force authorities to revisit emergency measures reminiscent of the 2022 crisis, including fuel rationing, restricted working days, and reduced transport services—directly impacting productivity.
Inflation Surge and Currency Pressures
Rising oil prices are expected to trigger a fresh wave of cost-push inflation, affecting transport, food, and essential goods. Increased war-risk insurance and shipping delays are further inflating import costs, placing additional pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee and already strained foreign reserves.
“The real danger is a re-triggering of balance of payments stress,” Prof. de Silva warned. “Higher fuel import bills, combined with potential declines in remittances from the Middle East and weaker export earnings, could destabilize external accounts once again.”
Sri Lanka’s export sectors are also facing mounting challenges. Tea exports to Iran and Gulf markets risk disruption, while apparel shipments are being delayed due to rerouted shipping lanes and rising freight costs.
“Transit times are increasing by up to two weeks in some cases. That erodes competitiveness and reliability—two key pillars for export markets,” Prof. de Silva explained.
Industrial supply chains are similarly under strain, with delays in raw materials and petroleum-based inputs threatening production continuity across sectors.
However, the most severe impact is being felt by SMEs, which Prof. de Silva described as “financially exhausted after enduring repeated shocks since 2019.”
“These businesses have not fully recovered from the Easter attacks, COVID-19 shutdowns, and the 2022 economic collapse. Now, they are facing a fresh crisis that is simultaneously increasing costs and reducing demand,” he said.
Operating expenses—including fuel, electricity, and logistics—have surged sharply, while constrained transport and reduced working days are limiting both customer access and employee attendance.
“This is a classic margin squeeze. For many SMEs, profits are not just shrinking—they are disappearing,” he added.
Compounding the crisis is tightening access to finance. With interest rates remaining elevated to control inflation, banks are becoming increasingly risk-averse, leaving SMEs struggling to secure working capital.
At the same time, declining household purchasing power is dampening demand, particularly in non-essential sectors such as retail, interior design, and construction-related services.
“Consumers are cutting back. SMEs are losing revenue streams. It’s a dangerous cycle,” Prof. de Silva said.
Export-oriented SMEs are also facing order cancellations and payment delays from Middle Eastern buyers, further squeezing foreign exchange inflows.
Employment and Social Pressures Mount
The SME crisis is already spilling over into the labour market. Businesses are reducing staff, cutting working hours, or halting expansion plans altogether.
“If this trend continues, we could see rising unemployment and underemployment, particularly among youth,” Prof. de Silva warned.
He also highlighted the risk of returning migrant workers due to instability in Gulf economies, which could intensify domestic job market pressures.
A Multi-Shock Economy on Edge
Prof. de Silva stressed that Sri Lanka is now grappling with a cumulative “multi-shock cycle”:
2019 Easter attacks → Tourism collapse
COVID-19 pandemic → Prolonged shutdowns
2022 economic crisis → Currency and fuel collapse
Iran war → External energy, trade, and financial shock
“Each crisis has weakened the resilience of SMEs. What we are seeing now is not recovery, but survival,” he said.
Without targeted intervention, Prof. de Silva warned of widespread SME closures, job losses, and a prolonged delay in national economic recovery.
“The Iran war is amplifying every existing vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s economy. SMEs are at the frontline of this crisis—and without immediate policy support, the consequences could be severe and long-lasting,” he cautioned.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Healthguard Distribution powers Sri Lanka’s ‘Port to Pharmacy’ medicine supply chain
Human resources remain the biggest challenge despite advanced logistics
Industry-wide cost pressures are also beginning to surface
In Sri Lanka’s pharmaceutical trade, the journey of a medicine does not end when it arrives at the port. It must still travel safely across the island – through regulated warehouses, temperature-controlled transport and complex distribution routes – before reaching the pharmacy shelf where patients need it.
That journey is increasingly being powered by Healthguard Distribution, the pharmaceutical logistics arm of Sunshine Holdings, whose expanding distribution network now plays a critical role in ensuring the reliable movement of medicines across the country.
At the centre of that network is the company’s Western Regional Distribution Centre (WRDC), a temperature-controlled logistics hub designed to support the safe storage and efficient distribution of pharmaceutical products across the Western Province.
Spanning nearly 18,920 square feet, the facility functions as a key node in the company’s islandwide distribution system. Originally acquired in 2008 to serve as the main warehouse for Swiss Biogenic Ltd., the site evolved alongside the company’s growing operations. Following a major upgrade programme that began in July 2024, the facility recommenced operations in July 2025 as a fully compliant regional distribution centre aligned with international quality standards.
According to Sunshine Pharmaceuticals and Healthguard Distribution Chief Executive Officer Shantha Bandara, the company’s logistics model is built around a simple but comprehensive concept.
“Our approach is ‘Port to Pharmacy’,” Bandara said during a recent media visit. “We collect pharmaceutical consignments from the Port of Colombo, clear them through Customs, store them under regulated conditions and then distribute them to pharmacies across the country. Importers and manufacturers do not have to worry about logistics – we manage the entire process.”
The distribution network today serves over 4,500 authorised pharmaceutical outlets, including pharmacies, hospitals, channeling centres, supermarkets and SPC Osusala outlets. Operations span 150 main towns and 466 sub towns, supported by 111 active delivery routes and seven regional distribution centres located across the island.
Within that system, the WRDC is the largest and among the most technologically advanced hubs.
The facility maintains strict cold-chain conditions for temperature-sensitive medicines. Its cold room capacity has been expanded from 15 cubic metres to 30 cubic metres, enabling compliant storage of products such as insulin within the required 2–8°C range. Online temperature monitoring systems operate across all storage zones while data loggers are used for insulin deliveries to ensure product integrity throughout the supply chain.
Delivery vehicles are also equipped with GPS tracking and temperature monitoring systems, allowing real-time visibility of shipments.
Automation and digital systems are increasingly shaping the operation. Software automation supports invoicing and customer credit verification, while sales teams use digital tools for order canvassing. The company’s enterprise systems provide real-time inventory and accounting visibility, supported by data dashboards used for operational decision-making.
To safeguard continuity, the facility is equipped with a high-capacity backup generator and dedicated on-site fuel storage, ensuring cold rooms, monitoring systems and warehouse operations remain functional even during power outages.
Behind the infrastructure is a workforce of 102 employees, supported by a specialised 15-member value-added services team trained in Good Distribution Practice (GDP), cold-chain management, safety and emergency response.
Yet despite the sophisticated logistics and infrastructure, Bandara told The Island that the most persistent operational challenge lies in human resources.
“We have the infrastructure, the logistics systems and the operational capability,” he noted. “However, maintaining the required number of skilled employees is an ongoing challenge because the labour market is constantly fluctuating. Our HR team is continuously recruiting and training to keep the workforce at the required level.”
Industry-wide cost pressures are also beginning to surface. Company officials noted that rising fuel prices could eventually affect transportation and electricity costs within the distribution chain, which may in turn influence pharmaceutical logistics expenses in the short term.
Still, the broader goal of the company remains unchanged – ensuring that medicines reach patients safely and on time.
From the moment a shipment arrives at the Port of Colombo to the point it reaches a pharmacy shelf, the process depends on precision logistics, regulatory compliance and operational discipline. For Sri Lanka’s healthcare supply chain, Healthguard Distribution’s growing network is becoming a key driver of that journey from port to pharmacy.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
From generation to generation: SINGER secures 20th consecutive People’s Brand title
Singer Sri Lanka, the nation’s foremost retailer of consumer durables, celebrates a truly historic milestone at the SLIM-KANTAR People’s Awards 2026, securing a prestigious triple victory while marking 20 consecutive years as the People’s Brand of the Year, an achievement made possible by the enduring trust and loyalty of Sri Lankan consumers.
This year, SINGER was honoured with yet another triple win with People’s Brand of the Year, Youth Brand of the Year and People’s Durables Brand of the Year at the awards ceremony. This remarkable recognition reflects the deep and lasting relationship the brand has built with Sri Lankans across generations, standing as a symbol of trust in homes across the island.
Janmesh Antony, Director – Marketing said: “This award belongs to our customers. Being recognised as People’s Brand for 20 years, alongside Youth and Durables Brand, reflects our commitment to staying relevant across generations.”
Mahesh Wijewardene, Group Managing Director said: “Twenty consecutive years as the People’s Brand is humbling and inspiring. This milestone strengthens our commitment to keeping customers at the heart of everything we do.”
Business
Policy certainty: The real investment test for Sri Lanka in 2026
When Arjuna Herath assumed duties as Chairman of the Board of Investment of Sri Lanka, he quite correctly sent a clear message: Sri Lanka intends to position itself as an investor-friendly destination. The message was reinforced during a visit by a high-level delegation from the USSri Lanka Business Council, where officials spoke of renewed confidence in the country’s economic trajectory.
The optimism is not without foundation. After years of crisis, Sri Lanka has begun to stabilize. Foreign direct investment crossed the psychological threshold of about US$1 billion in 2025, exports climbed to more than US$17 billion, and tourist arrivals reached record levels. These numbers suggest that international capital is once again willing to take a second look at the island. Yet statistics alone do not tell the whole story.
The deeper question facing policymakers in 2026 is whether that early interest can be sustained. For investors, confidence is rarely built on incentives alone; it rests on the expectation that rules will remain consistent once a project begins. In other words, predictability matters more than promises.
That tension between optimism and uncertainty is now emerging as the central theme in Sri Lanka’s investment narrative.
On the one hand, authorities are signaling reform and openness. On the other, several recent developments have reminded investors that implementation can still be uneven. One widely discussed case involved the proposed Ambuluwawa cable-car project in the hill country, where a cross-border investor withdrew after reportedly spending about US$3.5 million. The developer, Amber Adventures (Pvt) Ltd, had planned a US$12.75 million tourism venture but later said the project was halted despite earlier technical clearances from multiple agencies.
Regardless of where the merits of the dispute lie, the episode left a familiar impression in investment circles: timelines and approvals can appear uncertain once projects move from paper to construction.
A separate case in the renewable-energy sector has generated similar concerns. Policy resets and prolonged negotiations reportedly discouraged a major regional developer. Governments everywhere reserve the right to renegotiate contracts, but when processes appear open-ended, investors begin to factor in higher risk.
This is why policy certainty may be the most powerful – and least expensive – stimulus available to Sri Lanka in 2026.
The macroeconomic outlook already underscores this point. Analysts expect moderate growth in the range of about 3 – 4 percent this year, while the International Monetary Fund has projected roughly 3.1 percent, linking stronger expansion to steady reform implementation rather than new borrowing. In other words, execution matters more than announcements.
Institutional efficiency also plays a role. With more than a million cases pending in Sri Lanka’s courts, businesses often see legal delays as an additional cost of operating in the country. Reducing that backlog – particularly in commercial disputes – would signal that contracts and administrative decisions can be resolved within predictable timeframes.
Tourism offers another illustration. Visitor arrivals have surged, yet revenue growth has lagged because spending per traveller remains modest. Improving digital payments, mobility and dispute resolution may prove just as important as marketing campaigns if Sri Lanka hopes to extract greater value from the sector.
All in all, these signals reveal a simple truth. Sri Lanka does not necessarily lack investor interest; it risks losing momentum if processes remain uncertain.
For policymakers, the challenge therefore lies in bridging perception and practice. Codifying approval timelines, digitizing government services, and completing a handful of transparent public-private partnerships could quickly demonstrate that decisions in Sri Lanka are not only possible but reliable.
If that credibility gap is closed, the message delivered by the BOI chairman that Sri Lanka is open for business – will resonate far more strongly in global boardrooms. Because in frontier markets, the most valuable incentive is not a tax break or subsidy. It is certainty.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
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