… but current assessment won’t be valid if Gulf war continues for more than two months

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that though continuous energy supply could now be assured it would be only possible to forecast and guarantee this reliably for a maximum period of two months. If the Middle East war continued beyond this two-month window, predictions based on current assessments would no longer hold, the President said.

President Dissanayake made these remarks addressing the Chamber of Lankan Entrepreneurs (COYLE) 2026 Annual General Meeting held in Colombo Monday afternoon (10). This year’s Annual General Meeting was held under the theme “Bridging Generations, Building Futures”.

“The President noted that although internal shocks have been overcome, the country is currently facing an external shock due to the war situation in the Middle East. Since the beginning of March, the price of a barrel of crude oil has increased by about 42 per cent, creating significant uncertainty in the global market. He added that uncertainty can also be observed in consumer behaviour in Sri Lanka, citing as an example the increase in diesel sales from 4,500 kilolitres on 1 March to 10,500 kilolitres by 3 March.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake pointed out that while the crisis in 2022 arose due to a shortage of US dollars, the current situation is a supply crisis caused by disruptions in supply chains. He stated that this challenge can be overcome if everyone responds collectively rather than individually. He further noted that the government has established an “Economic Monitoring Committee” to address the crisis and is holding discussions with friendly countries to maintain supply chains.

However, at present we are facing an external shock. The war situation in the Middle East is disrupting the supply of goods and services. The world is interconnected through markets. In such an interconnected global system, any shock arising in one sector affects us as well. Therefore, the key question is how we withstand these external shocks.

At the beginning of March, a barrel of crude oil was priced at approximately USD 70. It has now risen to around USD 100, representing an increase of roughly 42%. Oil prices continue to fluctuate significantly, creating a climate of uncertainty worldwide. This situation has impacted all nations, generating economic pressures and in some cases, social strain. It is important to note that citizens are not to be blamed for these challenges. The consequences of fuel and gas shortages have been experienced directly by the population. In response, citizens have been lining up at fuel stations. Sales of diesel began with 4,500 litres on the first day of March and increased to 10,500 litres by 3 March.

Petrol sales initially rose from around 4,000 kilolitres to approximately 9,000 kilolitres, but have now fallen back below 6,000 kilo litres. Therefore, it is important to emphasise that no individual can remain safe or unaffected in isolation. If everyone collectively takes responsibility and acts together to address this challenge, it is only through such shared effort that we can overcome it for the benefit of all.

These external shocks are exerting a tangible impact on us, which has necessitated an increase in fuel prices. Approximately 47% of our fuel market is controlled by external entities, which makes it essential to establish trust with them. At the same time, it is important to bring fuel availability back to normal consumption levels. The recommendation is that, through collective effort, we should work together to reduce further for the benefit of all.

This is an era in which technology and science have given unprecedented power to warfare. As a result, it is impossible to predict the impact of such advanced military operations over the long term. Short-term forecasts are possible, but if the conflict continues beyond that period, no one can reliably predict the outcomes. Therefore, assurance can be provided that energy supply will be maintained over the next two months, however, prices may fluctuate. I am neither an owner of an oil well nor a representative of any oil company. These actions are not undertaken for personal profit. However, as a government, there is a responsibility to ensure an uninterrupted supply of energy.

All necessary measures have been put in place to manage internal pressures effectively. We have been able to address these domestic challenges, but confronting external shocks will require additional time. We are currently navigating a path of recovery and progress, which naturally entails encountering certain pressures. However, these challenges are being carefully managed and efforts are on-going to mitigate their impact. It is essential that everyone collectively faces these pressures, acting with consideration not only for oneself but for the welfare of the entire community. Consequently, some adjustment to consumption patterns is necessary. Unlike stable economies, nations facing global crises cannot rely solely on habitual consumption practices. In times of crisis, restraint and prudent economic behaviour are indispensable. I urge everyone to adopt a degree of moderation and participate in careful economic practices. By doing so collectively, we can successfully navigate this crisis and emerge stronger. “