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1988 Presidential election amidst turmoil

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(Continued from last week)

Ranasinghe Premadasa President of Sri Lanka (1989 – 1993)

The presidential elections were fixed by J R for 19 December 1988. I was in London at the time, almost at the end of my five-year contract as secretary-general with the IPPF. I had followed the course of political events in Sri Lanka during the past year and on the basis that our voters usually threw out the government in power every five years and this-one had now been in for almost ten, I did not rate Premadasa’s chances highly.

Moreover, he was being opposed by Sirimavo who was yet immensely popular as a person, although the SLFP, her party, had lately gone through some organisational problems. There were also many who had thought that the imposition of civic disability for seven years by J R had been unfair and were sympathetic to her. In fact, I recall telling Dulanjali, Premadasa’s daughter who was now with IPPF as an internee, that she should prepare herself for her father’s defeat in the face of the difficult situation for the UNP prevailing in the country.

The 19 December elections were conducted in extraordinarily disturbed circumstances. The state of emergency declared years earlier covered the entire country. In the Northern and Eastern Provinces the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) dominated the towns of Jaffna, Batticaloa and Trincomalee, but LTTE ambushes continued in much of the countryside. The LTTE who had established a complex of bases in the mainland Wanni jungles after their eviction from the Jaffna Peninsula in October 1987, operated their hit and run raids, virtually without hindrance. The Sri Lanka security forces, such as they were in the north and east, had been `confined to barracks’ in terms of the Indo-Sri Lankan Accord of 1987 and had played no active adversarial role against the LTTE ever since.

In the south, the JVP had commenced its campaign of destabilizing the government, especially after the signing of the accord. Their activities were focused particularly in the Southern. Central and North-Central Provinces.

It was in the midst of all this turbulence that Premadasa planned his strategy for the election helped by his loyal friend Sirisena Cooray. Their campaign focussed on the image of Premadasa as a man of action. “Who is he? What is he doing”?’ became the catchy and intriguing question they set before the electorate.

The two anti-systemic insurgencies of the LTTE in the north and the JVP in the south, although unconnected, had at least two common goals.

The first was-the virulent opposition of both to the presence of the IPKF in Sri Lanka. The LTTE had not been part of the IndoSri Lanka Accord of 1987, which was essentially between the two governments. There had been a much publicized surrender of arms to the IPKF in the presence of the Sri Lankan army but this had been only symbolic. They remained deeply suspicious of India and its motives. The IPKF had initially come in to protect the Tamil people from the depredations of the Sri Lankan army.

They had in fact been initially received with garlands by the Tamil people. But after Thileepan’s fast-unto-death in protest at the non-implementation of the terms of the accord in September, and the capture’ of 10 of the LTTE’s senior commanders at sea by the IPKF, they were being looked on more and more as a hostile force. By October 1987 the situation had deteriorated into open war. Similarly the LTTE were strongly opposed to the UNP government of J R Jayewardene.

He had brokered the Indian army into the north, assisted the EPRLF to form the civil administration in the North East Provincial Council (NEPC) and had earlier been the man responsible for initiating the 1983 pogrom against the Tamils throughout the country.

The JVP too had two common enemies – the UNP of J R Jayewardene and the IPKF. From the viewpoint of the JVP, it was J R’s UNP that had unfairly proscribed their party in 1983, persecuted and hunted down its members since then, and had in July 1987 committed the unpardonable sin of permitting the violation of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty through its tame accession to the secret, one-sided, Indo-Lanka accord. To them, the IPKF was the aggressor who had invaded Sri Lanka and had to be driven out. To the JVP it was a plot or ploy between J R and Rajiv with the final aim of dividing the country.

Premadasa, in his own ‘street smart’ manner, had made his personal evaluation of the complex situation that had evolved. He figured out that since one of the common goals of the two groups of insurgents was the IPKF, he would first need to get the IPKF out of the country as fast as possible. That would remove the irritant. As for the second common goal, the shared hatred towards J R, Premadasa had resolved that he was going to employ a different stroke in the manner in which he would deal with insurgency and revolt. It would not be by hitting back but by talking. Not by war but by peace. The strategy he would employ, and the phrase he coined to address the evolving situation (he was prone to be fond of alliterative phrases) was what he called the 3-C’s – ‘Consultation, Compromise and Consensus’. He moved into the campaign with these strategic thoughts in mind.

The Presidential Election of 1988

Three candidates presented themselves before the electorate for election. Premadasa (UNP), Sirimavo Bandaranaike (SLFP) and an outsider representing the SLMP (the Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya) – Oswin (Ossie) Abeygoonesekera. The SLMP was the party created by Vijaya and Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in 1977 but had broken up after Vijaya’s assassination and Chandrika’s departure for London to escape the terror which had resulted in her husband’s death. Many people believed that the SLMP’s putting forward a contestant, was a tactical move by the UNP election strategists — among whom Premadasa himself was pre-eminent — to spoil Sirimavo’s chances by taking away votes from the SLFP. In the way the election turned out, the presence of the SLMP candidate may have been the critical factor that swung the election Premadasa’s way.

The JVP had contested the 1982 presidential elections putting forward Rohana Wijeweera, its leader, and received 273,423 votes, 4.19 per cent of the total polled. It decided to boycott this presidential poll demanding that the presidential and parliamentary elections be held simultaneously. It had in fact served the public notice that they would put to death anyone who attempted to vote. Reports indicate that in some instances the threat was carried out. The fear syndrome so created may have had the desired effect because the total numbers polled declined to 55.32 per cent’ of the total electorate. Compared with the first presidential election of 1982, it represented a massive drop of over 25 per cent. Not only the voters but the public servants who were necessary to man the polling booths, and help in counting votes, etc were extremely reluctant to perform their official duties. The following extract from the report of the commissioner of elections on the 1988 presidential election confirms this:

It was not at all surprising that the public service, which forms part of this society, suffered the same fear psychosis and pleaded that the elections be not held, or if they were to be held and they were to participate, that they be provided with heavy security. No one could convince the public service the situation was not so alarming because, both as householders in their areas of residence as well as officers in the public institutions, they had the occasion to hear, see and sometimes experience the dangers of this situation. This attitude of alarm and desperation on the part of the public servants cast an absolutely gloomy shadow on our capacity to man the 8060 polling stations.

Premadasa only narrowly defeated Sirimavo at the election receiving 50.43 per cent of the vote. Sirimavo polled 44.945 per cent and Ossie 4.426 per cent. Since he had won more than 50 per cent of the total vote Premadasa was declared elected. But it had been a very close call. If he had not got the magic 50 per cent and secured say 49 per cent, according to the law, the second preferences at the third candidate, Ossie, would have come into play. This was the complicated ‘single transferable vote’ concept that had been introduced into the law governing the election of the president by J R in 1981.

Prernadasa. Faces an Election Petition

With such a close result there was no doubt that the election would be challenged. Sirimavo petitioned the courts on the grounds that a large number of her supporters had not been able to vote because of widespread harassment and intimidation by the other side. The election petition inquiry took over three years to be determined. The inquiry commenced in June of 1989 and the decision was delivered in September of 19’92. Almost 1000 witnesses gave evidence for the petitioner Sirimavo and the respondent Premadasa. While Sirimavo’s legal team was led by H L de Silva, P C, who had earlier handled her civic disability case, Premadasa too assembled a formidable group of lawyers under Kasi Choksy, PC, to prepare his defence.

The petition was decided in favour of Premadasa on the court accepting Choksy’s eminently logical argument that although many may not have voted, there was no way of saying for sure which candidate they would finally have cast their vote for. The argument was so fool-proof that in a reversed situation a few years later in 1999, when Ranil Wickremesinghe petitioned the court on the grounds that a large number of his known supporters had been similarly deprived of the opportunity to cast their votes for him and which would have altered the final result, the court citing the 1988 case as a precedent rejected the appeal offered by Choksy. The legal team for President Chandrika Kumaratunga in 1999, was led by none other than the redoubtable H L de Silva.

(Excerpted from Rendering unto Caesar, autobiography of Bradman Weerakoon) ✍️



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Features

Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

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“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

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After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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