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Who Stands to Lose? The Effects of GSP+ Withdrawal on Sri Lanka’s Exports and Labour Force

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New IPS Publication:

Growing uncertainties on the future of global trade as President Trump seeks to impose reciprocal tariffs make programmes such as the European Union’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) more significant for small exporters such as Sri Lanka. With a reported visit by EU representatives to assess GSP+, it is important to note that in the absence of the current tariff preferences, Sri Lanka will face a tariff increase up to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) levels, likely resulting in export losses and associated negative labour market effects.

IPS’ latest study titled “Who Stands to Lose? The Effects of GSP+ Withdrawal on

Sri Lanka’s Exports and Labour Force,” by IPS Researchers Dr Asanka Wijesinghe, Chaya Dissanayake and Rashmi Anupama estimates the export loss of Sri Lanka due to a hypothetical tariff increase from GSP+ rates to MFN rates.

The study reveals that the tariff hike in the EU–28 will cause an export loss of United States Dollars (USD) 1.23 billion (Bn) or 36.7% of EU–28 bound exports from the base year 2019 exports.

Sri Lanka’s wearing apparel and processing fish sectors will be the hardest hit and may face significant export losses. Moreover, the fall in import demand from the EU–28 will make 4.99% of total industrial employees in Sri Lanka vulnerable to adverse labour market outcomes.

This study also points to the differential effect of GSP+ preference erosion on women and low and medium–skilled workers, who account for 65.65% of vulnerable workers.

Some key highlights from the study are the following:

Although the wearing apparel sector does not utilise the GSP+ fully, the negative effect is large as the EU tariffs can go up by close to ten percentage points in a loss of GSP+ status.

The EU–28 is a major export destination for relatively high–technology products like transformers, accounting for 50% of Sri Lanka’s exports to the world in 2019. Estimates show that after GSP+ withdrawal, Sri Lanka will lose about 10% of exports to the EU–28 in transformers.

Reduced imports from the EU–28 under MFN tariffs will also make 73,574 workers vulnerable, as per the calculations of embedded employment in the imports by the EU–28.

Overall, 4.99% of the employment in the affected sectors will be vulnerable to a tariff increase, including 13.47% of workers in the wearing apparel sector.

The GSP+ preference erosion in the EU–28 market is worrying, with an estimated USD 1.23 Bn or 36.7%

export loss of the base year export value for Sri Lanka. GSP+ withdrawal will dwindle Sri Lanka’s export value while impeding the diversification of Sri Lanka’s export product basket towards products with high technology content.

Sri Lanka has a strong economic incentive to comply with the agreed–upon conventions, which is a conditionality of the tariff preference. Despite the variation in utilisation rates, the export effect of preference erosion will be substantial.

Although Sri Lanka may lose the preference with gradual economic growth, at the current growth stage of Sri Lanka, GSP+ is an important tariff preference in promoting growth and generating jobs for women and low and medium–skilled workers in the formal manufacturing sector. The loss of GSP+ at the growth stage with higher average income is a much more manageable loss, rather than a preference erosion at the current stage of growth.

WHO STANDS TO LOSE? THE EFFECTS OF GSP+ WITHDRAWAL ON SRI LANKA’S EXPORTS AND LABOUR FORCE can be downloaded from < https://www.ips.lk/who-stands-to-lose-the-effects-of-gsp-withdrawal-on-sri-lankas-exports-and-labor-force/>.



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Norochocholai coal-fired power complex seen as facing staggering financial losses

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While the Parliamentary debates were purely focused on missing the calorific value benchmark, the excessive Ash content (21% in the samples tested) is also a reason to reject the shipment, as maximum allowed ash percentage in the tender is 16%. This means even if the tests clear the coal on calorific values, the shipments still must be rejected based on ash content as per tender terms. This fly ash and low moisture will create a massive ecological disaster to the communities in Norachcholai - Withanage

Sri Lanka’s first and largest coal-fired power complex at Norochcholai is staring at mounting financial losses running into millions of rupees as low-quality coal imports, rejected shipments and unusable stockpiles disrupt operations and expose deep flaws in coal procurement, power sector and environmental experts warned yesterday.

Energy sector sources told The Island Financial Review the economic damage has already begun, with rejected coal stocks, delayed payments and declining plant efficiency forcing the system to absorb losses from under-performance, additional handling costs and the risk of turning to more expensive backup generation.

Insiders estimate that continued reliance on sub-standard coal could result in tens of millions of rupees in losses per day, once reduced output, higher fuel burn and maintenance costs are factored in.

At the centre of the controversy is a recent coal shipment procured by the Lanka Coal Company (LCC), which has come under intense scrutiny after laboratory tests reportedly showed ash content of around 21%, far exceeding the 16% maximum allowed under tender conditions.

While parliamentary debate has focused narrowly on whether the coal meets the required calorific value, experts stress that excessive ash alone is sufficient grounds for outright rejection, regardless of calorific performance.

The situation worsened after coal stocks at the Norochcholai Coal-Fired Power Complex were recently rejected, leaving shipments in limbo and payments withheld. Power sector officials say this has resulted in logistical losses, demurrage risks and operational uncertainty, while existing low-quality coal stockpiles continue to deteriorate in storage.

“Coal that does not meet specifications is not just unusable — it becomes a financial liability, a senior electrical engineer said.

High-ash coal reduces boiler efficiency, increases fly ash generation and accelerates wear on ash handling systems, electrostatic precipitators and boilers — translating into higher maintenance costs and forced outages. Industry analysts warn that these hidden costs ultimately find their way into CEB losses or consumer tariffs.

Environmental Scientist Hemantha Withanage warned that accepting or burning such coal would push Norochcholai into a new environmental crisis, with serious consequences for communities in Norochcholai, Puttalam and surrounding areas.

“This is not just about calorific value. High ash coal means significantly more fly ash, Withanage told The Island Financial Review. “With low moisture and excessive ash, particulate matter spreads easily, contaminating air, soil and water. This is a massive ecological threat that will directly affect public health.”

He stressed that fly ash contains toxic heavy metals and fine particulates linked to respiratory illness and long-term environmental degradation. “If tender conditions are ignored, the cost will be paid by communities, not the suppliers, Withanage said.

Critics say the crisis exposes serious weaknesses in coal procurement oversight, with questions now being raised about supplier selection, quality verification and accountability. They argue that repeatedly importing low-quality coal — only to reject it or burn it at reduced efficiency — amounts to systemic mismanagement of public funds.

By Ifham Nizam

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IRCSL launches ambitious mission to transform Sri Lanka’s insurance sector

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Dr. Ajith Raveendra De Mel

In a groundbreaking initiative, Insurance Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka (IRCSL), announced an ambitious mission aimed at transforming the insurance industry into a cornerstone of national economic resilience and social stability.

To address this, the IRCSL will launch a nationwide education campaign titled “Insurance for All: For a Secure Future,” focusing on enhancing financial literacy across the country said Dr. Ajith Raveendra De Mel, the newly appointed Chairman IRCSL. Few sample events have already commenced last year in Matara, Jaffna and Kilinochchi that have set a strong precedent for future initiatives. “The positive response from participants highlighted the strong need for direct engagement and community-level awareness,” he said.

The IRCSL has also partnered with the Ministry of Education to integrate insurance literacy into the national curriculum, starting as early as Grade 5. This initiative aims to embed core concepts of risk management and financial protection, preparing students for future roles in the insurance industry. Complementing educational efforts, the IRCSL is also hosting an Inter-University Quiz Competition focused on insurance and financial literacy, aiming to engage university students and cultivate future thought leaders in the sector. Additionally, an e-Newsletter will keep stakeholders informed about industry updates and regulatory developments.

Dr. De Mel emphasized that this transformation it is not just about increasing insurance penetration, currently at a mere 1.1%, but about fostering a financially literate society where every citizen, family, and business is shielded from unforeseen risks. He said “Our mission is to cultivate a fully insured, financially literate, and future-ready society. The journey ahead involves profound regulatory, technological, and educational reform to create a modern, transparent, and robust regulatory environment that earns public trust while promoting innovation and sustainable growth in the industry.”

He pointed out the critical need for awareness, noting that many Sri Lankans perceive insurance as complex or exclusive to the wealthy. “We need to change how people think about insurance. Our goal is to make it simple, relatable, and accessible to everyone, particularly in rural and underserved communities,” he explained. The IRCSL will collaborate closely with the Insurance Association of Sri Lanka (IASL), the Sri Lanka Insurance Brokers Association (SLIBA), and the Sri Lanka Insurance Institute (SLII) to ensure that the message of financial preparedness reaches all corners of the nation. As Sri Lanka stands on the brink of an insurance transformation, Dr. De Mel’s vision promises a secure future driven by informed financial decisions and enhanced protection against life’s uncertainties.

The IRCSL is also focusing on digital transformation, enhancing operational excellence within the insurance sector. Key initiatives include establishing a Centralized Motor Insurance Database to improve transparency and efficiency in motor insurance, and advancing health insurance through digital integration, including standardized disease coding and electronic health records.

To ensure global competitiveness, the IRCSL is benchmarking against international best practices. A recent study tour to India has provided valuable insights into implementing risk-based supervision and capital frameworks, as well as developing accessible insurance products for underserved communities.

As the IRCSL approaches its 25th anniversary, it emphasizes the importance of staff development and alignment with other financial regulatory bodies to maintain high professional standards. The upcoming OECD/ADBI Roundtable on Insurance and Retirement Savings in Asia will further position Sri Lanka as a leader in insurance discussions, fostering regional collaboration and innovation.

by Claude Gunasekera

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Sri Lanka’s first public allergy awareness wristbands

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LAUGFS Life Sciences, in collaboration with the Medical Research Institute (MRI), Colombo, has launched Sri Lanka’s first-ever publicly driven allergy awareness wristbands, a groundbreaking initiative aimed at improving patient safety and preparedness in medical emergencies. The wristbands provide essential information about drug sensitivities, allowing healthcare professionals to respond quickly and effectively when time is critical.

The official handover ceremony featured distinguished medical experts, including Dr. Dhanushka Dassanayake, Consultant Immunologist and Head of the Department of Immunology – MRI, Dr. Rajiva De Silva, Senior Consultant Immunologist – MRI and Dr. Prabath Amerasinghe, Deputy Director – MRI, marking a historic milestone in patient care in the country.

Commenting on the initiative, Dr. Rajiv Perera, CEO of LAUGFS Life Sciences, said, we are proud to partner with the Medical Research Institute to launch Sri Lanka’s first-ever publicly driven allergy awareness wristbands. This initiative underscores our commitment to patient-centric healthcare by providing critical information that can save lives during emergencies. We believe that thoughtful collaborations like this can have a meaningful impact on patient safety, and we look forward to expanding the program to cover additional drugs and allergens, further advancing healthcare standards across the country.

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