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Deep State – Sow a Wind and Reap a Whirlwind

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Col. (Retired) Parakrama Dissanayake
Former commanding Officer,
Military Intelligence

“If they did prosper and increase in riches, yet they should not long enjoy them themselves, but be pillaged and spoiled of them” Hosea 8:7

The above is quoted from the Bible and is self-explanatory. Since, the concept of Deep State in Sri Lanka is closely connected, to the Easter Bombing, the Bible verse has been referred to due to its significance.

For the first time in Sri Lanka, Deep State has been discussed publicly, by Sunanda Deshapriya, writing about it in his recent book about the Easter Attack. His book is about the fourth publication on the Easter Sunday attack. I have always had great respect for Sunanda as I had been reading his articles from the nineties.

Although I still have not read this book, skimming through it I think it is well researched. He refers to Deep State as ‘Paaraa Rajya’ in Sinhala. Attorney Kishali Pinto Jayawardena too has written about the danger of Deep State in her articles.

I wrote an article about Deep State immediately after Azad Moulana made a revelation on Channel 4. However I was advised not to, by my friends. I was also aware that a prominent journalist had to leave the country after it was alleged that he helped the Channel 4 research.

Definition and Extent of Deep State

There are many definitions to Deep State, its nature and activity, over a period of time. With research and activity, the term has evolved in many ways and descriptions. However, the concept originated from the Turkish word derin devlet. It was presumed, a secret network of military officers and civilians tried to preserve the secular order based on the ideas of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Some consider it as a part of the Gladio Organisation to influence Turkey to be part of NATO, during the Cold War.

A more formal definition would be, “an alleged secret network of especially non-elected government officials and sometimes private entities, as in the financial services and defence industries, operating extra legally to influence and enact government policy. The power of Deep State comes from experience, knowledge, relationships, insight, craft, special skills, traditions, and shared values”.

In very simple terms, it is ‘a State within a State’. Or ‘criminal’ or ‘rogue’ elements that have somehow muscled their way into power. Many countries have experienced Deep State in many forms mostly associated with the military, intelligence, influential business community or cartels or influential lobbyists.

In Deep State, the most common shared value being Patriotism or Nationalism, fits the profile of any military intelligence organisation including Sri Lanka. They go to the extent of changing public opinion through paid journalists, and media outlets, influential politicians and others. In today’s context, the Fifth Estate which is also very powerful, in changing public opinion. These Deep State elements, try to be away from public scrutiny through the cover of ‘Betrayal’.

Thus they become unaccountable and opaque. When in operation, the spectre of Deep State threatens to thwart the will of the people and undercut constitutional authority. Any government which promotes Deep State, for short term gain in politics, is either unaware of the concept and its implications or its criminal nature. Any whistle blower is silenced, using enormous resources and tools available to the Deep State element.

In USA. those who were involved in the January 6, 2021 attack on Capitol Hill, believed there was a Deep State conspiracy to prevent Joe Biden from becoming the rightful President of USA. There was rioting, vandalism. looting, assault, shooting, arson and attempted bombings during the attack.

Deep State, through all the world experience clearly indicates a threat to the state, democracy and the people, creates mistrust, suspicion and fear amongst the population and finally could result in the breakup of the state. It always has negative connotations. Deep State controls many countries. Closer home, Pakistan is a clear example of Deep State, associated with ‘Religion and Army’.

The long term, end result of Deep State is the fall of the Constitution and rise of a shadow government. This threatens the very fabric of society more than any act of terrorism. The enemy is always within and cannot be controlled due to many obligations the government has towards this rogue element. It begins with overseas postings and courses to selected individuals and ends up with super luxury life, influence and perks to those who form the elite and most trusted group of the government. This clearly was evident since the previous presidential elections in 2019 and from 2010.

Deep State in Sri Lanka

Deep State is hardly known, discussed or observed in any circle or community in Sri Lanka, including the military. Certainly, not in the public domain. Reasons being public backlash, threat to life and ignorance of the concept.

Deep State activity, in recent years, was first evidenced during 88-89 insurrection. Elements from the military and other law enforcement agencies were tasked with or by themselves decided, to carry out extrajudicial activity. Batalanda and Suriyakanda stand out and were the most infamous. This also happened in many other areas of the south.

During my tenure of service, as the senior intelligence officer, in the North and East, so many desperate mothers, sisters and wives were assisted in some form, to find or trace those missing. Unfortunately not much was possible. There were lists given by ruling party politicians just to ‘Eliminate’ youth whom they considered anti-social elements or subversives. Many youth were eliminated without any trial or judicial proceedings and that’s no secret at all. In some local areas the government was actually the military or the security forces. It was a government within a government, in most local areas.

Sunanda Deshapriya

Going beyond, the next stage was when the when Eelam War 2 broke out in June 1990. That’s actually the time when the White Van culture came about. Intelligence officers along with militants other than the LTTE, from various groups supported the security forces to identify terrorists. Abductions were taking place in the Jaffna peninsula, in white vans. It was, I think, the Uthayan and Eelamurasu newspapers that exposed the existence of white vans. The Uthayan newspaper office was hit by an air raid subsequently in 1990, and it was attacked about six times with the last time being in 2013. Eelamurasu was taken over by the militants.

In 1994, during the local government elections in the East, in March, the intelligence played a major role in help fielding candidates. In fact, a ruling party politician was involved in handing over money to those who stood for elections. Many of those elected were subsequently killed by the LTTE. Ever since, Deep State activity was carried out mostly by elements of intelligence units.

Even Heads of State believed in whatever the Intelligence reported. No questions were asked. That was quite natural, as they had implicit faith and trust in those agencies. Many have been the occasions when the Head of State and the country at large had been deceived by these agencies. The most horrible result of all this was the Easter Bombing in 2019.

The infamous Millenium City episode in 2001 was a text book example of how Deep State activity operated and executed, unprofessional but successful. The military intelligence was able to cover up their misdoings and unprofessional conduct big time. This was revealed even recently, by FM Sarath Foneka on July 21, 2024 during a news interview. The President, the Defence apparatus, the public and the country at large, were led down the garden path, deceived and public opinion manipulated in favour of the wrong doers.

Large amounts of public resources including media was extensively used to cover up an illegal operation. I was one who, suffered most, although I had absolutely no part to play in the drama. It was a turning point in Deep State activity in Sri Lanka. In actual fact, it was from that time onwards, that Deep State started to be treated as a defining tool in the Defence apparatus.

With this, the military intelligence became a game changer in military-political activity at National level. Its rise was phenomenal and unchallenged. Those involved in the manipulation, was smart enough to contribute to the fall of the government. Incidentally, the very same persons who manipulated the government then, brought about its fall 20 years ago.

They were able to comfortably work with the same person whom they ousted as Prime Minister then, later to become the previous President. A monster was created and nurtured for political gain as never before. The same could happen now too. And it’s not going to be a surprise to me at least. Covert attempts will be made use of to drum up the ‘Patriotic’ cause.

How deep is Deep

The affect and impact of Deep State in the Easter Bombing is now clearly evident. How deep is Deep State, is a matter of extreme interest. From what has transpired so far, from all investigations and commission reports, it is evident that there was a clear attempt by the military intelligence and other connected agencies to cover up Zahran and his group activity. There is no doubt about that. The only doubt is, whether they were in fact involved in the planning and execution of the attack.

The cover up activity is so strong that, even the Commander of the Army, a very noteworthy and highly respected professional was deceived by reports on the Vavunativu Killing on November 28, 2018 and the recovery of the arms cache at Lacto Estate, Vanthavillu, on January 27, 2019. Rogue elements have been in the pay roll of military intelligence and the tax payer of the country has paid to maintain a set of murderers.

Although, the Government in office was that of President Sirisena, the military intelligence loyalty has been to the one out of office. So, in other words, the latter was working and being directed by an element which had no responsibility on governance. Among the questions that needs answers are:

  •  Whom was the military intelligence working for, with the Zaharan group?
  •  Was it the Commander of the Army, a foreign element or a local element?
  •  Who authorised the activity with the operations and projects in general and activities of the Zaharan group in particular?
  •  Was the military intelligence loyal to the State and the Constitution?
  •  Who authorised payment for the Zaharan is group and what threat were they assigned to counter?

Strategically, tactically and operationally, the Directorate of Military Intelligence and all military intelligence personnel work on the directives of the President/Defence Minister who defines who, which, what, how, where and how much the threat is, to the State. The latter, in turn, issues directives on the advise of various defence specialists. It seems most of those protocols have been breached when dealing with the Zaharan group.

There could have been other such instances too. Even the President incumbent at that time seems to have been reluctant to divulge information about what knowledge he had. Instead, it appeared, he was more comfortable to pay rupees one hundred million to the victims. Thus the Easter Bombing was deeper than Deep State and may need a new definition.

On the Easter Bombing

Till the recent announcement of Presidential Elections it seemed much water had flowed under the bridge, following the Bombing. Commission Reports, Select Committee Reports, Investigations and four books written so far and nothing much happened or deliberately put on the back-burner. There is renewed hope for the victims and justice for the country now.

Some areas for consideration amidst the possibility of evidence being tampered and suppressed over a period of five years are:

= Auditing the Secret Service Fund (SS Fund). A large sum of money allocated to the State Intelligence Service and the Military Intelligence for purposes of intelligence. The only person who can audit this fund is the President. The military intelligence SS fund may never have been audited since its origin in 1990. An in depth study of how the fund was utilised over a period of about 10 years and for what purpose, will indicate the true nature of its use or misuse. However, traces of its use could be already tampered with.

= Assessment of Special Equipment inventory. Over a period of time, a large arsenal of special equipment has been purchased for intelligence purposes. Its true nature and use is privy only to a few individuals. A study needs to be done on its legal use and capabilities.

= Scrutiny of Human Resource Index Register. A variety of human sources are utilised as intelligence sources. It is mandatory that a source index is maintained for accountability. It has to be assessed whether it has been maintained along with true and accurate details of human resources including pseudonyms, along with reports submitted, payments made and results obtained. Pseudonyms are conveniently misused as a cover for illegal activity. This register can be cross checked with the SS Fund payment details and as a supporting document. This could be a major source for accountability and transparency to uncover suppressed evidence.

= Conducting of Joint investigations. A police or CID Investigation per se may not suffice. Handpicked personnel from the military too should be included. It is these personnel who will know or assist on the internal workings of the army, like, procedures regarding communications, transport, weapons, rations pay and others. Without this expertise, much can be suppressed or hidden as is normally the case.

= Appointing Special Commissions. It is known that these commissions are only fact finding and sometimes inconclusive with no powers of punishment. The public should be invited to give evidence. The journalists and others who had researched on the incident, may have brought out more findings through their research, than in any formal investigations as their informal source base is much stronger than a formal one. .

Knowledge and acknowledgment of Deep State will be more beneficial to the country rather than being ignorant of it. Other Deep State activity regarding attacks on journalists and killings too could be laid bare through this exposure. It will benefit the future good of the Country and be a genuine eye opener to the Defence establishment. Renewed attempts, as always, to shoot the messenger cannot ruled out though.

“Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel” Samuel Johnson 1709 – 1784

para.stormsat@gmail.com



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Your six-year-old needs a tablet like a fish needs a smartphone

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THE GREAT DIGITAL RETHINK — PART II

Nordic countries handed tablets to toddlers and called it early childhood education. Now they’re taking the tablets back, handing out pencils, and hoping nobody noticed. Meanwhile, the Global South is still signing the tablet contracts. Someone should probably warn them.

The Tablet Arrives in Preschool

It is 2013, a government minister stands in a preschool in Stockholm, handing a shiny tablet to a four-year-old. Press cameras click. A press release announces that Sweden is building the digital classrooms of the future. The child, who until recently had been learning to hold a crayon, now swipes confidently at a screen. Innovation! Progress! The future!

Fast forward to 2023, the same Swedish government, or at least its successors, announces that preschools were wrong to make digital devices mandatory. Children’s reading comprehension is declining. Books are going back on the shelves. Pencils are making a comeback. The preschool tablets are being quietly wheeled into storage, and nobody wants to talk about the press release.

What Finland Actually Did — And Is Now Undoing

Finland has long held a special place in the global education imagination. When PISA scores are published and Finland sits at or near the top, education ministers from Seoul to São Paulo take note and wonder what they are doing wrong. Finland is the benchmark. Finland is the proof that good education is possible.

Which makes it all the more significant that Finland, in 2025, passed legislation banning mobile phones from classrooms. Not just recommending restraint. Not just issuing guidelines. Banning them, with teachers empowered to confiscate devices that disrupt learning. The law covers both primary and secondary schools. It came after years of evidence that children were distracted, and that Finland’s own PISA scores had been falling.

But the phone ban is only part of the story. The deeper shift in Finnish primary education has been a quiet reassertion of analogue fundamentals. Early literacy is being treated again as a craft that requires time, patience, practice and, crucially, a pencil.

Sweden gave tablets to toddlers. Then took them back. The pencils were in a drawer the whole time.

Sweden’s Spectacular U-Turn

Sweden’s reversal is arguably the most dramatic in recent educational history, because Sweden had gone further than most in embracing early-years digitalisation. The country had not merely allowed devices in preschool, it had in places mandated them, treating digital interaction as a developmental right alongside physical play and social learning. There was a logic to it, however misplaced: if the future is digital, surely children should encounter that future as early as possible.

The problem is that young children are not miniature adults navigating a digital workplace. They are human beings in the early stages of acquiring language, developing fine-motor-skills, building concentration and learning to regulate their own attention. These are not processes that are enhanced by a swipeable screen. Research on early childhood development is consistent on this point: young children learn language through conversation, storytelling, and physical manipulation of objects. They learn to write by writing, by the slow, muscular, tactile process of forming letters with a hand.

By 2023, Swedish education authorities had seen enough. Reading comprehension scores were down. Handwriting was deteriorating. Teachers were reporting that children were arriving in primary school unable to hold a pen properly. The policy reversed. Books came back. Cursive writing was reintroduced. The national curriculum was amended. And Sweden became, instead, a cautionary tale about what happens when you swap crayons for touchscreens before children have learned what crayons are for.

Australia: Banning Phones at Lunch

Australia’s approach to primary school digitalisation has been somewhat less ideologically charged than Scandinavia’s, and accordingly its reversal has been more pragmatic than philosophical. Australian states and territories arrived at phone bans largely through the accumulating pressure of parent complaints, teacher frustration and growing evidence that smartphones were damaging the social fabric of school life, not just in classrooms, but in playgrounds.

Queensland’s ‘away for the day’ policy, introduced in Term 1 of 2024, was notable precisely because it extended beyond lesson time to cover break times as well. This was a direct acknowledgement that the problem was not simply digital distraction during learning, it was the way that always-on connectivity was transforming childhood itself. Children who spend every break time on a phone are not playing, not resolving social conflicts face to face, not developing the unstructured social skills that primary school has always, if accidentally, taught.

The cyberbullying dimension added particular urgency in Australia, where research showed that many incidents of online harassment between primary-school children were occurring during school hours, facilitated by the phones sitting in their pockets. Banning the phone at the school gate did not solve the problem of online cruelty, but it did remove the school day as a venue for it.

The Science of the Pencil

The cognitive argument for handwriting in primary education is, it turns out, and far more interesting than the popular ‘screens bad, pencils good’ slogan suggests. The research on note-taking in university students, the finding that handwritten notes produce better conceptual understanding than typed notes, has a more fundamental parallel in primary education.

When a young child learns to write by hand, they are not merely practising a motor skill. They are encoding letters through physical movement, which activates memory systems that visual recognition alone does not reach. Studies in developmental psychology suggest that children who learn to write letters by hand recognise them faster and more accurately than those who learn through typing or tracing on screens. The hand, it appears, teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not.

This does not mean that digital tools have no place in primary education, nobody sensible is arguing that children should graduate from primary school unable to use a keyboard. The question is sequencing and proportion. The emerging consensus, hard-won through a decade of failed experiments, is that foundational literacy and numeracy need to be established through analogue means before digital tools are introduced as supplements. Screens can follow pencils. Pencils, it turns out, cannot follow screens without catching up on what was missed.

The hand teaches the brain in ways the finger-swipe does not. And it took a decade of falling scores to rediscover this.

The Rest of the World Is Still Buying Tablets

Here is the uncomfortable part. While Finland legislates, Sweden reverses course and Australia bans phones from playgrounds, a large portion of the world’s primary schools are doing the opposite. Governments across South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are actively expanding device programmes in primary schools. Tablets are being distributed. Interactive whiteboards are being installed. AI tutoring apps are being piloted. The logic is identical to the logic Finland and Sweden followed 15 years ago: modernise, digitalise, equip children for the future.

The vendors selling these systems are not telling ministers about the Swedish U-turn. The development banks financing device programmes are not adjusting their models to reflect the OECD’s inverted-U curve. The international consultants advising education ministries are largely still working from a playbook written in 2010.

The lesson of the Nordic reversal is not that screens are evil, it is that screens at the wrong stage, in the wrong proportion, without the right pedagogical framework, undermine the very foundations they are supposed to build on. That lesson is available. The question is whether anyone is listening.

What Primary Schools Actually Need

Literacy and numeracy are not enhanced by early device saturation. They are built through reading aloud, through writing by hand, through mathematical reasoning with physical objects, and through the irreplaceable medium of a skilled teacher who knows their students.

Technology in primary education works best when it supplements a strong foundation, not when it substitutes for one that has not yet been built. Sweden and Finland did not fail because they used technology. They failed because they used it too extensively, and without asking what it was actually for. That question — what is this for? — is the one that every primary school system in the world should be asking before it signs another tablet contract.

SERIES ROADMAP Part I: From Ed-Tech Enthusiasm to De-Digitalisation | Part II: Phones, Pens & Early Literacy (this article) | Part III: Attention, Algorithms & Adolescents | Part IV: Universities, AI & the Handwritten Exam | Part V: A Critical Theory of Educational De-Digitalisation

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)

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Government is willing to address the past

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Minister Ratnayake

Minister Bimal Rathnayake has urged all Sri Lankan refugees in India to return to Sri Lanka, stating that provision has been made for their reintegration. He called on India to grant citizenship to those who wished to stay on in India, but added that the government would welcome them back with both hands if they chose Sri Lanka. He gave due credit to the Organisation for Eelam Refugees Rehabilitation (OfERR), an NGO led by S. C. Chandrahasan, the son of S. J. V. Chelvanayakam, widely regarded as the foremost advocate of a federal solution and a historic leader of the Federal Party. OfERR has for decades assisted refugees, particularly Sri Lankan Tamils in India, with documentation, advocacy and voluntary repatriation support. Given the slow pace of resettlement of Ditwah cyclone victims, the government will need to make adequate preparations for an influx of Indian returnees for which it will need all possible assistance. The minister’s acknowledgement indicates that the government appreciates the work of NGOs when they directly assist people.

The issue of Sri Lankan refugees in India is a legacy of the three-decade long war that induced mass migration of Tamil people to foreign countries. According to widely cited estimates, the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora today exceeds one million and is often placed between 1 and 1.5 million globally, with large communities in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. India, particularly Tamil Nadu, continues to host a significant refugee population. Current figures indicate that approximately 58,000 to 60,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees live in camps in India, with a further 30,000 to 35,000 living outside camps, bringing the total to around 90,000. These numbers have declined over time but remain one of the most visible human legacies of the conflict.

The fact that the government has chosen to make this announcement at this time indicates that it is not attempting to gloss over the human rights issues of the past that continue into the present. Those who suffered victimisation during the war may be encouraged that their concerns remain on the national agenda and have not been forgotten. Apart from those who continue to be refugees in India, there are more than 14,000 complaints of missing persons still under investigation according to the Office on Missing Persons, which has received tens of thousands of complaints since its establishment. There are also unresolved issues of land taken over by the military as high security zones, though some land has been released, and prisoners held in long term detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act, which the government has pledged to repeal and replace.

Sequenced Response

In addressing the issue of Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India, the government is sending a message to the Tamil people that it is not going to gloss over the past. The indications are that the government is sequencing its responses to problems arising from the past. The government faces a range of urgent challenges, some inherited from previous governments, such as war era human rights concerns, and others that have arisen more recently after it took office. The most impactful of these crises are not of its own making. Global economic instability has affected Sri Lanka significantly. The Middle East war has contributed to a shortage of essential fuels and fertilizers worldwide. Sri Lanka is particularly vulnerable to rising fuel prices. Just months prior to these global pressures, Sri Lanka faced severe climate related shocks, including being hit by a cyclone that led to floods and landslides across multiple districts and caused loss of life and extensive damage to property and livelihoods.

From the beginning of its term, the government has been compelled to prioritise economic recovery and corruption linked to the economy, which were central to its electoral mandate. As the International Monetary Fund has emphasised, Sri Lanka must continue reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, reduce debt vulnerabilities and strengthen governance. The economic problems that the government must address are urgent and affect all communities, whether in the north or south, and across Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim populations. These problems cannot be postponed. However, issues such as dealing with the past, holding provincial council elections and reforming the constitution are not experienced as equally urgent by the majority, even though they are of deep importance to minorities. Indeed, the provincial council system was designed to address the concerns of the minorities and a solution to their problems.

Unresolved grievances tend to reappear in new forms when not addressed through political processes. Therefore, they need to be addressed sooner rather than later, even if they are not the most immediate priorities for the government. It must not be forgotten that the ethnic conflict and the three decade long war it generated was the single most destructive blow to the country, greatly diminishing its prospects for rapid economic development. Prolonged conflict reduced investment, diverted public expenditure and weakened institutions. If Sri Lanka’s early leaders had been able to negotiate peacefully and resolve their differences, the country might have fulfilled predictions that it could become the “Switzerland of the East.”

Present Opportunity

The present government has a rare opportunity to address the issues of the past in a way that ensures long term peace and justice. It has a two thirds majority in parliament, giving it the constitutional space to undertake significant reforms. It has also demonstrated a more inclusive approach to ethnic and religious minorities than many earlier governments which either mobilized ethnic nationalism for its own purposes or feared it too much to take political risks to undertake necessary reforms. Public trust in the government, as noted by international observers, remains relatively strong. During her recent visit, IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva stated that “there is a window of opportunity for Sri Lanka,” noting that public trust in the government provides a foundation for reform.

It also appears that decades of public education on democracy, human rights and coexistence have had positive effects. This education, carried out by civil society organisations over several decades, sometimes in support of government initiatives and more often in the face of government opposition, provides a foundation for political reform aimed at justice and reconciliation. Civil society initiatives, inter-ethnic dialogue and rights-based advocacy have contributed to shaping a more informed public about controversial issues such as power-sharing, federalism and accountability for war crimes. The government would do well to expand the appreciation it has deservedly given to OfERR to other NGOs that have dedicated themselves addressing the ethnic and religious mistrust in the country and creating greater social cohesion.

The challenge for the government is to engage in reconciliation without undue delay, even as other pressures continue to grow. Sequencing is necessary, but indefinite postponement carries risks. If this opportunity for conflict resolution is not taken, it may be a long time before another presents itself. Sri Lanka may then continue to underperform economically, remaining an ethnically divided polity, not in open warfare, but constrained by unresolved tensions. The government’s recent reference to Tamil refugees in India is therefore significant. It shows that even while prioritising urgent economic and global challenges, it has not forgotten the past. Sri Lanka has a government with both the mandate and the capacity to address that past in a manner that secures a more stable and just future for all its people.

By Jehan Perera

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Strategic diplomacy at Sea: Reading the signals from Hormuz

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The unfolding tensions and diplomatic manoeuvres around the Strait of Hormuz offer more than a snapshot of regional instability. They reveal a deeper transformation in global statecraft, one where influence is exercised through calibrated engagement rather than outright confrontation. This is strategic diplomacy in its modern form: restrained, calculated, and layered with competing interests.

At first glance, the current developments may appear as routine diplomatic exchanges aimed at preventing escalation. However, beneath the surface lies a complex web of signalling among major and middle powers. The United States seeks to maintain deterrence without triggering an open conflict. Iran aims to resist pressure while avoiding isolation. Meanwhile, China and India, two rising powers with expanding global interests are navigating the situation with careful precision.

China’s position is anchored in economic pragmatism. As a major importer of Gulf energy, Beijing has a direct stake in ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and stable. Any disruption would reverberate through its industrial base and global supply chains. Consequently, China advocates de-escalation and diplomatic resolution. Yet, this is not purely altruistic. Stability serves China’s long-term strategic ambitions, including the protection of its Belt and Road investments and maritime routes. At the same time, Beijing remains alert to India’s growing diplomatic footprint in the region. Should India deepen its engagement with Iran and other Gulf actors, it could gradually reshape the strategic balance in areas traditionally influenced by China.

India’s approach, in contrast, reflects a confident and increasingly sophisticated foreign policy. By engaging Iran directly, while maintaining working relationships with Western powers, New Delhi is positioning itself as a credible intermediary. This is not merely about energy security, though that remains a key driver. It is also about strategic autonomy the ability to act independently in a multipolar world. India’s diplomacy signals that it is no longer a passive player but an active shaper of regional outcomes. Its engagement with Iran, particularly in the context of connectivity and trade routes, underscores its intent to secure long-term strategic access while countering potential encirclement.

Iran, for its part, views the situation through the lens of survival and strategic resilience. Years of sanctions and pressure have shaped a cautious but pragmatic diplomatic posture. Engagement with external actors, including India and China, provides Tehran with avenues to ease isolation and assert relevance. However, Iran’s trust deficit remains significant. Its diplomacy is transactional, focused on immediate gains rather than long-term alignment. The current environment offers opportunities for tactical advantage, but Iran is unlikely to make concessions that could compromise its core strategic objectives.

Even actors on the periphery, such as North Korea, are closely observing these developments. Pyongyang interprets global events through a narrow but consistent framework: regime survival through deterrence. The situation around Iran reinforces its belief that leverage, particularly military capability, is a prerequisite for meaningful negotiation. While North Korea is not directly involved, it draws lessons that may shape its own strategic calculations.

What emerges from these varied perspectives is a clear departure from traditional bloc-based geopolitics. The world is moving towards a more fluid and fragmented order, where alignments are temporary and issue-specific. States cooperate on certain matters while competing with others. This creates a dynamic but unpredictable environment, where misinterpretation and miscalculation remain constant risks.

It is within this evolving context that Sri Lanka’s strategic relevance becomes increasingly visible. The recent visit by the US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor, to the Colombo Port; is not a routine diplomatic courtesy call. It is a signal. Ports are no longer just commercial gateways; they are strategic assets embedded in global power competition. A visit of this nature underscores how Sri Lanka’s maritime infrastructure is being viewed through a geopolitical lens particularly in relation to sea lane security, logistics, and regional influence.

Such engagements reflect a broader reality: global powers are not only watching the Strait of Hormuz but are also positioning themselves along the wider Indian Ocean network that connects it. Colombo, situated along one of the busiest east–west shipping routes, becomes part of this extended strategic theatre. The presence and interest of external actors in Sri Lanka’s ports highlight an emerging pattern of influence without overt control a hallmark of modern strategic diplomacy.

For Sri Lanka, these developments are far from abstract. The island’s strategic location along major Indian Ocean shipping routes places it at the intersection of these global currents. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy flows, and any disruption would have immediate consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy, particularly in terms of fuel prices and supply stability.

Moreover, Sri Lanka must manage the competing interests of larger powers operating within its vicinity. India’s expanding regional role, China’s entrenched economic presence, and the growing attention from the United States all converge in the Indian Ocean. This requires a careful balancing act. Aligning too closely with any one power risks alienating others, while inaction could leave Sri Lanka vulnerable to external pressures.

The appropriate response lies in adopting a robust foreign policy that engages all major stakeholders while preserving national autonomy. This involves strengthening diplomatic channels, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and investing in strategic foresight. Sri Lanka must also recognise the growing importance of non-traditional security domains, including cyber threats and information warfare, which increasingly accompany geopolitical competition.

Equally important is the need for internal coherence. Effective diplomacy abroad must be supported by institutional strength at home. Policy consistency, professional expertise, and strategic clarity are essential if Sri Lanka is to navigate an increasingly complex international environment.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz thus serves as both a warning and an opportunity. It highlights the fragility of global systems, but also underscores the potential for skilled diplomacy to manage tensions. For Sri Lanka, the challenge is not merely to observe these developments, but to position itself wisely within them.

In a world where power is no longer exercised solely through force, but through influence and presence, strategic diplomacy becomes not just an option, but a necessity. The nations that succeed will be those that understand this shift now and act with clarity, balance, and foresight.

Mahil Dole is a senior Sri Lankan police officer with over four decades of experience in law enforcement and intelligence. He previously served as Head of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the State Intelligence Service and has conducted extensive interviews with more than 100 suicide cadres linked to terrorist organisations. He is a graduate of the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (Hawaii).

By Mahil Dole
Senior Police Officer (Retd.), Former Head of Counter-Terrorism Division, State Intelligence Service, Sri Lanka

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