Business
Policy rates to hold steady amidst sweeping measures to insulate economy: First Capital
First Capital Research believes that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) will maintain same policy stance in its monetary policy review, but given the concerns around economic growth, the research arm also supposes that there is a probability – to a lesser extent – that CBSL is likely to further ease its policy rates.
” The CBSL either can choose to hold policy rates steady or cut by a 25bps or 50bps while, hike is off the table due to the lackluster economic growth. We believe that there is a 60% probability to hold rates due to the considerable improvement in high frequency indicators and with fiscal and monetary measures implemented so far. However, there is a 20% probability each for 25bps and 50bps rate cut to support economic growth,” First Capital Research said in its latest report.
At the previous policy meeting held on November 2020, CBSL maintained its monetary policy stance, emphasizing the fact that overall market lending rates have witnessed a reduction during 2020 and there is a need for a continued downward adjustment in lending rates to boost economic growth. Moreover, introduction of maximum interest rates on mortgage- backed housing loans is expected to provide additional stimulus to the economy.
The next CBSL’s monetary policy review is scheduled to be announced on 19th January 2021 at 07.30 am.
The research arm further stated that excess liquidity prevailing in the domestic market requires no change in current policy stance.
“As a response to the measures taken by the Government, market liquidity increased to an elevated level while recording a three-year high on 1 January 2021 amounting to Rs. 266.5 billion. Accordingly, this excess liquidity in the system is expected to retain market interest rates at single digit levels while inducing further credit expansion. This inquires the need of further policy easing at the upcoming review,” it said.
It further stated that there is gradual rebound in private credit to power economic growth.
“Private sector credit increased by LKR 41.0Bn in Nov 2020 recording a growth for the fourth consecutive month indicating a revival in gross loan disbursements up to pre-pandemic levels in Dec 2019. The continuous uptrend in private sector credit till Nov 2020 reflects that both businesses and individuals are accelerating their economic activities to make up for the lost opportunities during lockdowns in the first wave of COVID, which could power decent growth in 4Q2020 and onwards,”
In response to previous monetary easing measures implemented by CBSL, (including the lending caps) to bring down costs of borrowing of businesses and households, both market deposit and lending rates adjusted notably so far during 2020.
First Capital Research believes these measures will enable to maintain market interest rates at stable levels in 2021 while playing its aiding role amidst the pandemic driven economic contraction.
Meanwhile, the research arm estimates that Sri Lanka’s GDP would see its steepest contraction in history of -5.8% in 2020 and to see a gradual recovery of 2.8% in 2021.
“The current government’s key drive is the development oriented economic growth which was spelled out through the Budget 2021 and is in the process of changing gears of the economy from a “recovery phase to an expansion phase. Accordingly, Government plans to reach 6% and above GDP growth during the next 5 years commencing from 2021. As we believe a development oriented budget coupled with low interest rate environment can support the Govt.’s medium-term goals. Therefore, the need to accelerate the GDP growth can be considered as a major factor favouring further policy easing at the upcoming review,” it said.
“Government is more focused on domestic funding to finance the budget deficit. This is reflected by the improved domestic to foreign debt ratio to 55:45 by end Sep 2020 from the previous 51:49 as at end of 2019. In the midst of limited access to the international financial markets, Government opt to rely more on domestic borrowings to finance the budget deficit and hence easing rates at the upcoming policy meeting results in reduced funding cost favouring the government,” it added.
Business
Ceylon Chamber partners with members and relief agencies to deliver Cyclone Ditwah relief
In response to the devastating impact of Cyclone Ditwah, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce has been actively supporting national relief and recovery operations in collaboration with the Government of Sri Lanka, key partners, and its members.
As a co-chair of the Sri Lanka Preparedness Partnership (SLPP) alongside the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), the Ceylon Chamber together with Janathakshan, played a central role in coordinating emergency response efforts, ensuring rapid and efficient assistance to affected communities. From 28 November to 6 December 2025, the Chamber mobilised volunteers across the Chamber Secretariat, member companies MAS Capital Pvt. Ltd – Intimates Division, Aitken Spence PLC, and university student groups, contributing more than 190 hours of service and answering over 40,000 emergency assistance requests to support the DMC’s 24-hour Emergency Operations Center.
The Chamber also provided support to the DMC for the Rapid Disaster Needs Assessment (RDNA), assisting with data analysis of calls received and the development of the direct community needs component of the RDNA, which informed government planning and coordination of relief distribution.
With the generous support of its member companies, the Ceylon Chamber facilitated the collection and handing over of financial aid and essential relief items to affected areas. The Chamber is deeply appreciative of Aitken Spence PLC, BASF Lanka (Pvt) Ltd.. CDK Philip Hospital, Central Finance Company PLC, Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts, Devi Trading Company, Eastern Merchants PLC, Emar Pharma Pvt. Ltd., Finagle Lanka Pvt.Ltd., H Connect International Pvt. Ltd., Hemas Manufacturing (Pvt) Ltd., John Keells-Cinnamon Life, John Keells Holdings, John Keells Properties, Lakdhanavi, Lauke Shipping, Oxford College of Business, Perera & Sons, Shanthi Textile, Union Assurance PLC, Union Bank of Colombo PLC, Walkers Tours, Wealthtrust Securities Ltd., and a large number of private donors, both individuals and companies, for heeding the nation’s call, supporting communities and industries hardest hit by Cyclone Ditwah, and contributing to ongoing recovery and rebuilding efforts across the country.
Beyond immediate relief, the Chamber continues to support preparedness initiatives ahead of the North East Monsoon Season 2025, reinforcing resilience and readiness across the country.
“We are deeply grateful to our member companies and volunteers for stepping up in this critical time – demonstrating once again that the private sector has and will continue to play a strong and supportive role in ensuring stability and sustainability for Sri Lanka at all times’, said Krishan Balendra, Chairperson of the Ceylon Chamber.
Business
Fluctuating fortunes for bourse in the wake of selling pressure
The CSE kicked off yesterday on a bullish sentiment, but by the middle of the session it turned negative due to heavy selling pressure. Later, though, it returned to positive territory, market analysts said.
There was satisfactory buying pressure latterly, both in retail and institutional entities, following the return to normalcy of economic activities driven by international support for rebuilding the country.
Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All Share Price Index went up by 60.33 points while S and P SL20 was up by 11.67 points. Turnover stood at Rs 5.55 billion with nine crossings.
Top seven crossings were: Sunshine Holdings 13.6 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 462 million and its shares traded at Rs 35, JKH 9.5 million shares crossed for Rs 198 million; its shares traded at Rs 21, Laugfs Gas (Non-Voting) 1.2 million shares crossed for Rs 73.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 61 Tokyo Cement (Non-Voting) 730,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 66.1 million; its shares traded at Rs 87, Commercial Bank 185,000 shares crossed for Rs 37 million and its shares sold at Rs 200, Access Engineering 300,000 shares crossed for Rs 23.1 million; its shares sold at Rs 77 and Laugfs Gas 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 22.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 73.90.
In the retail market top seven companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Colombo Dockyard Rs 485 million (two million shares traded), JKH Rs 468 million (22.4 million shares traded), Dialog Axiata Rs 245 million (8.4 million shares traded), Sunshine Holdings Rs 198 million (5.7 million shares traded), ACL Cables Rs 122 million (481,000 shares traded) and Lanka Credit Business and Finance Rs 108.5 million (11.4 million shares traded). During the day 171 million shares volumes changed hands in 34388 transactions.
It is said that manufacturing sector counters, especially JKH and Sunshine Holdings, led the market while the banking sector also fared reasonably well, especially Commercial Bank. The telecommunication sector, mainly Dialog Axiata, also performed well.
Meanwhile, Cargills Bank is looking to raise Rs 2.5 billion through a rights issue of shares at Rs 8.50 each to support lending activities.
It also will issue 294,200,000 ordinary voting shares at a ratio of 14 new ordinary shares for every 45 existing ordinary shares. The issue is expected to raise Rs 2,500,700,000 in capital, CSE sources said.
Yesterday, the rupee was quoted at Rs 308.95/309/05 to the US dollar in the spot market, weaker from Rs 308.80/90 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields dropped significantly.
A bond maturing on 15.02.2028 was quoted at 9.05/15 percent, down from 9.15/20 percent.
A bond maturing on 15.09.2029 was quoted at 9.50/52 percent.
A bond maturing on 01.07.2030 was quoted at 9.55/65 percent.
A bond maturing on 15.12.2032 was quoted at 10.20/30 percent, down from 10.25/30 percent.
A bond maturing on 15.06.2035 closed at 10.63/70 percent.
By Hiran H Senewiratne
Business
HNB tops TAB Global Ranking as “Sri Lanka’s Strongest Bank”
HNB PLC, the leading private bank in Sri Lanka, has been awarded the title of Strongest Bank in Sri Lanka for 2025 by TAB Global. The recognition was confirmed following the release of the TAB Global World’s 1000 Largest and Strongest Banks Rankings, with the announcement made recently
HNB’s Managing Director / CEO, Damith Pallewatte, stated that the accolade underscores the bank’s unwavering commitment to sustained financial strength and strategic resilience. “This honour shows the resilience and clarity of purpose that guide our institution. Our teams advanced through demanding cycles with discipline and accountability. The recognition confirms the trust placed in us by customers, investors and partners and it reinforces the duty we carry as a leading private bank. We remain fully committed to safeguarding long-term strength while contributing to Sri Lanka’s economic advancement with integrity and resolve.”
HNB achieves a landmark distinction in the 2025 rankings, establishing itself as Sri Lanka’s strongest bank. The assessment highlights HNB’s balance sheet quality, prudent risk discipline and the bank’s consistent ability to maintain stability through varied economic conditions. The ranking places HNB alongside leading global financial institutions acknowledged for sustained strength, institutional reliability and capacity to absorb external shocks.
Foo Boon Ping, President and Managing Editor at TAB Global, stated: “HNB demonstrated strong fundamentals and consistent delivery across multiple stress indicators. The bank’s performance placed it ahead of its domestic peers and aligned it with institutions recognised for structural strength. The ranking reflects measurable outcomes drawn from transparent criteria.”
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