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Instability that will most hurt economic recovery is electoral uncertainty

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by Jehan Perera

The petrol and gas queues are gone, but economic statistics paint a grim picture. The country’s international debt continues to mount inexorably as it did before the economic crash. Two years ago when the economic crisis hit, it was in the region of USD 80 billion. According to news reports, Sri Lanka’s debt has now increased to over USD 100 billion amid marginal improvement in some macroeconomic measures (such as inflation), while unpaid principal and interest on selected debt exceed USD 6.4 billion. This bodes ill for the country. It shows that little that is fundamental has changed in these past two years. The country, and government, continue to spend more than they earn and can only make ends meet by borrowing from abroad.

Since Sri Lanka suspended servicing the external debt of bilateral and commercial creditors in April 2022, unpaid debt service has increased to close to USD 4.5 billion, while unpaid interest has gone up to USD 2 billion by the end of last year. In 2023, the government got little over USD 2.12 billion in foreign financing by signing 16 agreements with foreign development partners and lending agencies. However, nearly all of this, US$ 2.02 billion was in the form of loans which need to be repaid. The economy contracted by 2.3 percent last year after shrinking by 7.3 percent in 2022. Economic growth is estimated to be around 2 percent this year, but the income level will still be less than it was two years ago. Worse is to come. The World Bank has recommended that “a sufficiently deep debt restructuring is needed to restore Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability.’’

Government leaders have been saying that the country needs political stability if it is to continue on the past of economic recovery. Not just politicians but economists, too, have been saying the same thing. Unfortunately, as the above statistics show, the evidence for the economic progress that the country is said to be experiencing, under the present government, is limited. Some sectors of the economy, notably tourism, are doing very well. But other sectors, such as small scale manufacturing, are facing huge difficulties. There are also hardly any large scale investments taking place, and where they are, as in the case of the Mannar wind power project, it appears that the terms are highly disadvantageous to the country.

Illegitimate Government

There is an uncertainty that prevails in Sri Lanka about the future of elections which is the topic of conversation everywhere, in the markets and supermarkets, over meals and drinks with friends and colleagues, whether the government will hold elections or not. This is the uncertainty that is going to undermine the country. Already two sets of elections have not been held, the Provincial Council elections for over five years, and the local government elections for over a year and there is no sign of them being held either, except in the words and promises of government leaders. The Presidential Elections due this year will hopefully set the stage for other elections to follow and Sri Lanka will be democratically stable even as it copes with the economic challenge.

For the past two years there has been a freeze on the repaying of most debt as the country is officially bankrupt and going through the initial phases of an IMF-led debt restructuring programme. When the country finally negotiates a settlement with its debtors it will have to repay those loans that it is currently not repaying, and the burden on the masses of people will get even worse. This calls for problem solving by a government that is seen as being legitimately voted in by the people at free and fair elections. A government that avoids holding elections in 2024 will be perceived as illegitimate and will find it difficult to restrain the anger of the people when the economic crisis grows in intensity.

At present, the political uncertainty that prevails in the country is not due to elections but is rather due to the possibility that there will be no elections. Not having elections on the grounds of wanting to have political stability is to put the cart before the horse. All democratic countries have elections. England held elections in the middle of World War II, and so did Sri Lanka during the three-decade long war and in the midst of insurrection that almost toppled the government. Elections are a given in a democratic society, and everything needs to be arranged around the elections, and not the other way round. The reason there is political uncertainty in Sri Lanka today is that no one knows if elections that are due will, in fact, be held.

Early Elections

Constitutional experts have pointed out that extending the term of office of the President and Parliament would require both a 2/3 majority in Parliament and approval by the people at a referendum. They also point out that the President’s legitimacy to seek an extension of his term of office is even more compromised as he was not elected by the people. Unlike a President elected by the people, Article 31 (e) of the Constitution specifies that a President elected by Parliament cannot call for early elections after four years. Pragmatism also dictates that the government is unlikely to press for a referendum to extend its life. Public opinion polls have consistently shown that the two main opposition presidential candidates from the SJB and NPP are ahead of the incumbent President. Therefore, it can be surmised that the majority of voters at a referendum would not wish to postpone elections and provide a longer period to the government.

When in 2022 President Ranil Wickremesinghe became President, through a vote in Parliament, he was able to crack down and disable the protest movement due to the special conditions prevailing at that time. The economic situation was dire and the street protests were getting out of hand. But today there is a state of normalcy in which there are no visible shortages but most people are worse off, economically, than they were in 2022 due to the shrinking of the economy by 7 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023. The deteriorating political and economic situation of the country is a matter of deep concern and should be given the highest priority by the leadership that does not prioritise self–interest and instead prioritises national interests.

Also, it is unlikely people will acquiesce in a crackdown by a government that is denying them the right to vote. A legitimate government, that is voted for by the people, is needed to cope with the international debt which is bound to get worse once Sri Lanka reaches agreement with its creditors to start repaying its debts. In these circumstances, economic recovery that benefits the masses of people needs to be given priority. The postponement of elections is not only democratically illegitimate, it would also generate public opposition that would create political uncertainty and drive away economic investors. The best course of action for the government would be to end the political uncertainty by working with the Election Commission to declare the date of the Presidential Election sooner rather than later.



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Features

Political violence stalking Trump administration

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A scene that unfolded during the shooting incident at the recent White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington. (BBC)

It would not be particularly revelatory to say that the US is plagued by ‘gun violence’. It is a deeply entrenched and widespread malaise that has come in tandem with the relative ease with which firearms could be acquired and owned by sections of the US public, besides other causes.

However, a third apparent attempt on the life of US President Donald Trump in around two and a half years is both thought-provoking and unsettling for the defenders of democracy. After all, whatever its short comings the US remains the world’s most vibrant democracy and in fact the ‘mightiest’ one. And the US must remain a foremost democracy for the purpose of balancing and offsetting the growing power of authoritarian states in the global power system, who are no friends of genuine representational governance.

Therefore, the recent breaching of the security cordon surrounding the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington at which President Trump and his inner Cabinet were present, by an apparently ‘Lone Wolf’ gunman, besides raising issues relating to the reliability of the security measures deployed for the President, indicates a notable spike in anti-VVIP political violence in particular in the US. It is a pointer to a strong and widespread emergence of anti-democratic forces which seem to be gaining in virulence and destructiveness.

The issues raised by the attack are in the main for the US’ political Right and its supporters. They have smugly and complacently stood by while the extremists in their midst have taken centre stage and begun to dictate the course of Right wing politics. It is the political culture bred by them that leads to ‘Lone Wolf’ gunmen, for instance, who see themselves as being repressed or victimized, taking the law into their own hands, so to speak, and perpetrating ‘revenge attacks’ on the state and society.

A disproportionate degree of attention has been paid particularly internationally to Donald Trump’s personality and his eccentricities but such political persons cannot be divorced from the political culture in which they originate and have their being. That is, “structural” questions matter. Put simply, Donald Trump is a ‘true son’ of the Far Right, his principal support base. The issues raised are therefore for the President as well as his supporters of the Right.

We are obliged to respect the choices of the voting public but in the case of Trump’s election to the highest public position in the US, this columnist is inclined to see in those sections that voted for Trump blind followers of the latter who cared not for their candidate’s suitability, in every relevant respect, and therefore acted irrationally. It would seem that the Right in the US wanted their candidate to win by ‘hook or by crook’ and exercise power on their behalf.

By making the above observations this columnist does not intend to imply that voting publics everywhere in the world of democracy cast their vote sensibly. In the case of Sri Lanka, for example, the question could be raised whether the voters of the country used their vote sensibly when voting into office the majority of Executive Presidents and other persons holding high public office. The obvious answer is ‘no’ and this should lead to a wider public discussion on the dire need for thoroughgoing voter education. The issue is a ‘huge’ one that needs to be addressed in the appropriate forums and is beyond the scope of this column.

Looking back it could be said that the actions of Trump and his die-hard support base led to the Rule of Law in the US being undermined as perhaps never before in modern times. A shaming moment in this connection was the protest march, virtually motivated by Trump, of his supporters to the US Capitol on January 6th, 2021, with the aim of scuttling the presidential poll result of that year. Much violence and unruly behaviour, as known, was let loose. This amounted to denigrating the democratic process and encouraging the violent take over of the state.

In a public address, prior to the unruly conduct of his supporters, Trump is on record as blaring forth the following: ‘We won this election and we won by a landslide’, ‘We will stop the steal’, ‘We will never give up. We will never concede. It doesn’t happen’, ‘If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.’

It is plain to see that such inflammatory utterances could lead impressionable minds in particular to revolt violently. Besides, they should have led the more rationally inclined to wonder whether their candidate was the most suitable person to hold the office of President.

Unfortunately, the latter process was not to be and the question could be raised whether the US is in the ‘safest pair of hands’. Needless to say, as events have revealed, Donald Trump is proving to be one of the most erratic heads of state the US has ever had.

However, the latest attempt on the life of President Trump suggests that considerable damage has been done to the democratic integrity of the US and none other than the President himself has to take on himself a considerable proportion of the blame for such degeneration, besides the US’ Far Right. They could be said to be ‘reaping the whirlwind.’

It is a time for soul-searching by the US Right. The political Right has the right to exist, so the speak, in a functional democracy but it needs to take cognizance of how its political culture is affecting the democratic integrity or health of the US. Ironically, the repressive and chauvinistic politics advocated by it is having the effect of activating counter-violence of the most murderous kind, as was witnessed at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Continued repressive politics could only produce more such incidents that could be self-defeating for the US.

Some past US Presidents were assassinated but the present political violence in the country brings into focus as perhaps never before the role that an anti-democratic political culture could play in unraveling the gains that the US has made over the decades. A duty is cast on pro-democracy forces to work collectively towards protecting the democratic integrity and strength of the US.

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22nd Anniversary Gala …action-packed event

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The Skyliners: Shanaka Viswakula (bass), Mario Ranasuriya (lead guitar), Daryl D'Souza (keyboards) and Kushmin Balasuriya (drums)

The Editor-in-Chief of The Sri Lankan Anchorman, a Toronto-based monthly, celebrating Sri Lankan community life in Canada, is none other than veteran Sri Lankan journalist Dirk Tissera, who moved to Canada in 1997. His wife, Michelle, whom he calls his “tower of strength”, is the Design Editor.

According to reports coming my way, the paper has turned out to be extremely popular in Toronto.

In fact, The Sri Lankan Anchorman won a press award in Toronto for excellence in editorial content and visual presentation.

However, the buzz in the air in Canada, right now, is The Sri Lankan Anchorman’s 22nd Anniversary Gala, to be held on Friday, 12 June, 2026, at the J&J Swagat Banquet Convention Centre, in Toronto.

An action-packed programme has been put together for the night, featuring some of the very best artistes in the Toronto scene.

The Skylines, who are classified as ‘the local musical band in Toronto’, will headline the event.

Dirk Tissera and wife Michelle: Supporting Sri Lanka-Canada community events, in Toronto, since launching The Anchorman
in 2002

They have performed and backed many legendary Sri Lanka singers.

According to Dirk, The Skylines can belt out a rhythm with gusto … be it Western, Sinhala or Tamil hits.

Also adding sparkle to the evening will be the legendary Fahmy Nazick, who, with his smooth and velvety vocals, will have the crowd on the floor.

Fahmy who was a household name, back in Sri Lanka, will be flying down from Virginia, USA.

He has captivated audiences in Sri Lanka, the Middle East and North America, and this will be his fourth visit to Toronto – back by popular demand,

Cherry DeLuna, who is described by Dirk as a powerhouse, also makes her appearance on stage and is all set to stir up the tempo with her cool and easy delivery.

“She’s got a great voice and vocal range that has captivated audiences out here”, says Dirk.

Chamil Welikala, said to be one of the hottest DJs in town, will be spinning his magic … in English, Sinhala, Tamil and Latin.


Both Jive and Baila competitions are on the cards among many other surprises on the night of 12 June.

This is The Anchorman’s fifth annual dance in a row – starting from 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 – and both Dirk and Michelle, and The Anchorman, have always produced elegant social events in Toronto.

“We intend to knock this one out of the park,” the duo says, adding that Western music and Sinhala and Tamil songs is something they’ve always delivered and the crowd loves it.

“We have always supported Sri Lanka-Canada community events, in Toronto, since launching The Anchorman, in 2002, and we intend to keep it that way.”

No doubt, there will be a large crowd of Sri Lankans, from all communities, turning up, on 12 June, to support Dirk, Michelle and The Anchorman.

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Features

Face Pack for Radiant Skin

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* Apple and Orange:

Blend a few apple and orange pieces together. Add to it a pinch of turmeric and one tablespoon of honey. Apply it to the face and neck and rinse off after 30 minutes. This face pack is suitable for all skin types.

According to experts, apple is one of the best fruits for your skin health with Vitamin A, B complex and Vitamin C and minerals, while, with the orange peel, excessive oil secretion can be easily balanced.

* Mango and Curd:

Ripe mango pulp, mixed with curd, can be rubbed directly onto the skin to remove dirt and cleanse clogged pores. Rinse off after a few minutes.

Yes, of course, mango is a tasty and delicious fruit and this is the mango season in our part of the world, and it has extra-ordinary benefits to skin health. Vitamins C and E in mangoes protect the skin from the UV rays of the sun and promotes cell regeneration. It also promotes skin elasticity and fights skin dullness and acne, while curd, in combination, further adds to it.

*  Grapes and Kiwi:

Take a handful of grapes and make a pulp of it. Simultaneously, take one kiwi fruit and mash it after peeling its skin. Now mix them and add some yoghurt to it. Apply it on your face for few minutes and wash it off.

Here again experts say that kiwi is the best nutrient-rich fruit with high vitamin C, minerals, Omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin E, while grapes contain flavonoids, which is an antioxidant that protects the skin from free radical damage. This homemade face pack acts as a natural cleanser and slows down the ageing process.

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