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Instability that will most hurt economic recovery is electoral uncertainty

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by Jehan Perera

The petrol and gas queues are gone, but economic statistics paint a grim picture. The country’s international debt continues to mount inexorably as it did before the economic crash. Two years ago when the economic crisis hit, it was in the region of USD 80 billion. According to news reports, Sri Lanka’s debt has now increased to over USD 100 billion amid marginal improvement in some macroeconomic measures (such as inflation), while unpaid principal and interest on selected debt exceed USD 6.4 billion. This bodes ill for the country. It shows that little that is fundamental has changed in these past two years. The country, and government, continue to spend more than they earn and can only make ends meet by borrowing from abroad.

Since Sri Lanka suspended servicing the external debt of bilateral and commercial creditors in April 2022, unpaid debt service has increased to close to USD 4.5 billion, while unpaid interest has gone up to USD 2 billion by the end of last year. In 2023, the government got little over USD 2.12 billion in foreign financing by signing 16 agreements with foreign development partners and lending agencies. However, nearly all of this, US$ 2.02 billion was in the form of loans which need to be repaid. The economy contracted by 2.3 percent last year after shrinking by 7.3 percent in 2022. Economic growth is estimated to be around 2 percent this year, but the income level will still be less than it was two years ago. Worse is to come. The World Bank has recommended that “a sufficiently deep debt restructuring is needed to restore Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability.’’

Government leaders have been saying that the country needs political stability if it is to continue on the past of economic recovery. Not just politicians but economists, too, have been saying the same thing. Unfortunately, as the above statistics show, the evidence for the economic progress that the country is said to be experiencing, under the present government, is limited. Some sectors of the economy, notably tourism, are doing very well. But other sectors, such as small scale manufacturing, are facing huge difficulties. There are also hardly any large scale investments taking place, and where they are, as in the case of the Mannar wind power project, it appears that the terms are highly disadvantageous to the country.

Illegitimate Government

There is an uncertainty that prevails in Sri Lanka about the future of elections which is the topic of conversation everywhere, in the markets and supermarkets, over meals and drinks with friends and colleagues, whether the government will hold elections or not. This is the uncertainty that is going to undermine the country. Already two sets of elections have not been held, the Provincial Council elections for over five years, and the local government elections for over a year and there is no sign of them being held either, except in the words and promises of government leaders. The Presidential Elections due this year will hopefully set the stage for other elections to follow and Sri Lanka will be democratically stable even as it copes with the economic challenge.

For the past two years there has been a freeze on the repaying of most debt as the country is officially bankrupt and going through the initial phases of an IMF-led debt restructuring programme. When the country finally negotiates a settlement with its debtors it will have to repay those loans that it is currently not repaying, and the burden on the masses of people will get even worse. This calls for problem solving by a government that is seen as being legitimately voted in by the people at free and fair elections. A government that avoids holding elections in 2024 will be perceived as illegitimate and will find it difficult to restrain the anger of the people when the economic crisis grows in intensity.

At present, the political uncertainty that prevails in the country is not due to elections but is rather due to the possibility that there will be no elections. Not having elections on the grounds of wanting to have political stability is to put the cart before the horse. All democratic countries have elections. England held elections in the middle of World War II, and so did Sri Lanka during the three-decade long war and in the midst of insurrection that almost toppled the government. Elections are a given in a democratic society, and everything needs to be arranged around the elections, and not the other way round. The reason there is political uncertainty in Sri Lanka today is that no one knows if elections that are due will, in fact, be held.

Early Elections

Constitutional experts have pointed out that extending the term of office of the President and Parliament would require both a 2/3 majority in Parliament and approval by the people at a referendum. They also point out that the President’s legitimacy to seek an extension of his term of office is even more compromised as he was not elected by the people. Unlike a President elected by the people, Article 31 (e) of the Constitution specifies that a President elected by Parliament cannot call for early elections after four years. Pragmatism also dictates that the government is unlikely to press for a referendum to extend its life. Public opinion polls have consistently shown that the two main opposition presidential candidates from the SJB and NPP are ahead of the incumbent President. Therefore, it can be surmised that the majority of voters at a referendum would not wish to postpone elections and provide a longer period to the government.

When in 2022 President Ranil Wickremesinghe became President, through a vote in Parliament, he was able to crack down and disable the protest movement due to the special conditions prevailing at that time. The economic situation was dire and the street protests were getting out of hand. But today there is a state of normalcy in which there are no visible shortages but most people are worse off, economically, than they were in 2022 due to the shrinking of the economy by 7 percent in 2022 and 2 percent in 2023. The deteriorating political and economic situation of the country is a matter of deep concern and should be given the highest priority by the leadership that does not prioritise self–interest and instead prioritises national interests.

Also, it is unlikely people will acquiesce in a crackdown by a government that is denying them the right to vote. A legitimate government, that is voted for by the people, is needed to cope with the international debt which is bound to get worse once Sri Lanka reaches agreement with its creditors to start repaying its debts. In these circumstances, economic recovery that benefits the masses of people needs to be given priority. The postponement of elections is not only democratically illegitimate, it would also generate public opposition that would create political uncertainty and drive away economic investors. The best course of action for the government would be to end the political uncertainty by working with the Election Commission to declare the date of the Presidential Election sooner rather than later.



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Crucial test for religious and ethnic harmony in Bangladesh

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A political protest that led to governmental change in Bangladesh mid last year. (photograph: imago)

Will the Bangladesh parliamentary election bring into being a government that will ensure ethnic and religious harmony in the country? This is the poser on the lips of peace-loving sections in Bangladesh and a principal concern of those outside who mean the country well.

The apprehensions are mainly on the part of religious and ethnic minorities. The parliamentary poll of February 12th is expected to bring into existence a government headed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist oriented Jamaat-e-Islami party and this is where the rub is. If these parties win, will it be a case of Bangladesh sliding in the direction of a theocracy or a state where majoritarian chauvinism thrives?

Chief of the Jamaat, Shafiqur Rahman, who was interviewed by sections of the international media recently said that there is no need for minority groups in Bangladesh to have the above fears. He assured, essentially, that the state that will come into being will be equable and inclusive. May it be so, is likely to be the wish of those who cherish a tension-free Bangladesh.

The party that could have posed a challenge to the above parties, the Awami League Party of former Prime Minister Hasina Wased, is out of the running on account of a suspension that was imposed on it by the authorities and the mentioned majoritarian-oriented parties are expected to have it easy at the polls.

A positive that has emerged against the backdrop of the poll is that most ordinary people in Bangladesh, be they Muslim or Hindu, are for communal and religious harmony and it is hoped that this sentiment will strongly prevail, going ahead. Interestingly, most of them were of the view, when interviewed, that it was the politicians who sowed the seeds of discord in the country and this viewpoint is widely shared by publics all over the region in respect of the politicians of their countries.

Some sections of the Jamaat party were of the view that matters with regard to the orientation of governance are best left to the incoming parliament to decide on but such opinions will be cold comfort for minority groups. If the parliamentary majority comes to consist of hard line Islamists, for instance, there is nothing to prevent the country from going in for theocratic governance. Consequently, minority group fears over their safety and protection cannot be prevented from spreading.

Therefore, we come back to the question of just and fair governance and whether Bangladesh’s future rulers could ensure these essential conditions of democratic rule. The latter, it is hoped, will be sufficiently perceptive to ascertain that a Bangladesh rife with religious and ethnic tensions, and therefore unstable, would not be in the interests of Bangladesh and those of the region’s countries.

Unfortunately, politicians region-wide fall for the lure of ethnic, religious and linguistic chauvinism. This happens even in the case of politicians who claim to be democratic in orientation. This fate even befell Bangladesh’s Awami League Party, which claims to be democratic and socialist in general outlook.

We have it on the authority of Taslima Nasrin in her ground-breaking novel, ‘Lajja’, that the Awami Party was not of any substantial help to Bangladesh’s Hindus, for example, when violence was unleashed on them by sections of the majority community. In fact some elements in the Awami Party were found to be siding with the Hindus’ murderous persecutors. Such are the temptations of hard line majoritarianism.

In Sri Lanka’s past numerous have been the occasions when even self-professed Leftists and their parties have conveniently fallen in line with Southern nationalist groups with self-interest in mind. The present NPP government in Sri Lanka has been waxing lyrical about fostering national reconciliation and harmony but it is yet to prove its worthiness on this score in practice. The NPP government remains untested material.

As a first step towards national reconciliation it is hoped that Sri Lanka’s present rulers would learn the Tamil language and address the people of the North and East of the country in Tamil and not Sinhala, which most Tamil-speaking people do not understand. We earnestly await official language reforms which afford to Tamil the dignity it deserves.

An acid test awaits Bangladesh as well on the nation-building front. Not only must all forms of chauvinism be shunned by the incoming rulers but a secular, truly democratic Bangladesh awaits being licked into shape. All identity barriers among people need to be abolished and it is this process that is referred to as nation-building.

On the foreign policy frontier, a task of foremost importance for Bangladesh is the need to build bridges of amity with India. If pragmatism is to rule the roost in foreign policy formulation, Bangladesh would place priority to the overcoming of this challenge. The repatriation to Bangladesh of ex-Prime Minister Hasina could emerge as a steep hurdle to bilateral accord but sagacious diplomacy must be used by Bangladesh to get over the problem.

A reply to N.A. de S. Amaratunga

A response has been penned by N.A. de S. Amaratunga (please see p5 of ‘The Island’ of February 6th) to a previous column by me on ‘ India shaping-up as a Swing State’, published in this newspaper on January 29th , but I remain firmly convinced that India remains a foremost democracy and a Swing State in the making.

If the countries of South Asia are to effectively manage ‘murderous terrorism’, particularly of the separatist kind, then they would do well to adopt to the best of their ability a system of government that provides for power decentralization from the centre to the provinces or periphery, as the case may be. This system has stood India in good stead and ought to prove effective in all other states that have fears of disintegration.

Moreover, power decentralization ensures that all communities within a country enjoy some self-governing rights within an overall unitary governance framework. Such power-sharing is a hallmark of democratic governance.

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Celebrating Valentine’s Day …

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Valentine’s Day is all about celebrating love, romance, and affection, and this is how some of our well-known personalities plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day – 14th February:

Merlina Fernando (Singer)

Yes, it’s a special day for lovers all over the world and it’s even more special to me because 14th February is the birthday of my husband Suresh, who’s the lead guitarist of my band Mission.

We have planned to celebrate Valentine’s Day and his Birthday together and it will be a wonderful night as always.

We will be having our fans and close friends, on that night, with their loved ones at Highso – City Max hotel Dubai, from 9.00 pm onwards.

Lorensz Francke (Elvis Tribute Artiste)

On Valentine’s Day I will be performing a live concert at a Wealthy Senior Home for Men and Women, and their families will be attending, as well.

I will be performing live with romantic, iconic love songs and my song list would include ‘Can’t Help falling in Love’, ‘Love Me Tender’, ‘Burning Love’, ‘Are You Lonesome Tonight’, ‘The Wonder of You’ and ‘’It’s Now or Never’ to name a few.

To make Valentine’s Day extra special I will give the Home folks red satin scarfs.

Emma Shanaya (Singer)

I plan on spending the day of love with my girls, especially my best friend. I don’t have a romantic Valentine this year but I am thrilled to spend it with the girl that loves me through and through. I’ll be in Colombo and look forward to go to a cute cafe and spend some quality time with my childhood best friend Zulha.

JAYASRI

Emma-and-Maneeka

This Valentine’s Day the band JAYASRI we will be really busy; in the morning we will be landing in Sri Lanka, after our Oman Tour; then in the afternoon we are invited as Chief Guests at our Maris Stella College Sports Meet, Negombo, and late night we will be with LineOne band live in Karandeniya Open Air Down South. Everywhere we will be sharing LOVE with the mass crowds.

Kay Jay (Singer)

I will stay at home and cook a lovely meal for lunch, watch some movies, together with Sanjaya, and, maybe we go out for dinner and have a lovely time. Come to think of it, every day is Valentine’s Day for me with Sanjaya Alles.

Maneka Liyanage (Beauty Tips)

On this special day, I celebrate love by spending meaningful time with the people I cherish. I prepare food with love and share meals together, because food made with love brings hearts closer. I enjoy my leisure time with them — talking, laughing, sharing stories, understanding each other, and creating beautiful memories. My wish for this Valentine’s Day is a world without fighting — a world where we love one another like our own beloved, where we do not hurt others, even through a single word or action. Let us choose kindness, patience, and understanding in everything we do.

Janaka Palapathwala (Singer)

Janaka

Valentine’s Day should not be the only day we speak about love.

From the moment we are born into this world, we seek love, first through the very drop of our mother’s milk, then through the boundless care of our Mother and Father, and the embrace of family.

Love is everywhere. All living beings, even plants, respond in affection when they are loved.

As we grow, we learn to love, and to be loved. One day, that love inspires us to build a new family of our own.

Love has no beginning and no end. It flows through every stage of life, timeless, endless, and eternal.

Natasha Rathnayake (Singer)

We don’t have any special plans for Valentine’s Day. When you’ve been in love with the same person for over 25 years, you realise that love isn’t a performance reserved for one calendar date. My husband and I have never been big on public displays, or grand gestures, on 14th February. Our love is expressed quietly and consistently, in ordinary, uncelebrated moments.

With time, you learn that love isn’t about proving anything to the world or buying into a commercialised idea of romance—flowers that wilt, sweets that spike blood sugar, and gifts that impress briefly but add little real value. In today’s society, marketing often pushes the idea that love is proven by how much money you spend, and that buying things is treated as a sign of commitment.

Real love doesn’t need reminders or price tags. It lives in showing up every day, choosing each other on unromantic days, and nurturing the relationship intentionally and without an audience.

This isn’t a judgment on those who enjoy celebrating Valentine’s Day. It’s simply a personal choice.

Melloney Dassanayake (Miss Universe Sri Lanka 2024)

I truly believe it’s beautiful to have a day specially dedicated to love. But, for me, Valentine’s Day goes far beyond romantic love alone. It celebrates every form of love we hold close to our hearts: the love for family, friends, and that one special person who makes life brighter. While 14th February gives us a moment to pause and celebrate, I always remind myself that love should never be limited to just one day. Every single day should feel like Valentine’s Day – constant reminder to the people we love that they are never alone, that they are valued, and that they matter.

I’m incredibly blessed because, for me, every day feels like Valentine’s Day. My special person makes sure of that through the smallest gestures, the quiet moments, and the simple reminders that love lives in the details. He shows me that it’s the little things that count, and that love doesn’t need grand stages to feel extraordinary. This Valentine’s Day, perfection would be something intimate and meaningful: a cozy picnic in our home garden, surrounded by nature, laughter, and warmth, followed by an abstract drawing session where we let our creativity flow freely. To me, that’s what love is – simple, soulful, expressive, and deeply personal. When love is real, every ordinary moment becomes magical.

Noshin De Silva (Actress)

Valentine’s Day is one of my favourite holidays! I love the décor, the hearts everywhere, the pinks and reds, heart-shaped chocolates, and roses all around. But honestly, I believe every day can be Valentine’s Day.

It doesn’t have to be just about romantic love. It’s a chance to celebrate love in all its forms with friends, family, or even by taking a little time for yourself.

Whether you’re spending the day with someone special or enjoying your own company, it’s a reminder to appreciate meaningful connections, show kindness, and lead with love every day.

And yes, I’m fully on theme this year with heart nail art and heart mehendi design!

Wishing everyone a very happy Valentine’s Day, but, remember, love yourself first, and don’t forget to treat yourself.

Sending my love to all of you.

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Banana and Aloe Vera

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To create a powerful, natural, and hydrating beauty mask that soothes inflammation, fights acne, and boosts skin radiance, mix a mashed banana with fresh aloe vera gel.

This nutrient-rich blend acts as an antioxidant-packed anti-ageing treatment that also doubles as a nourishing, shiny hair mask.

Face Masks for Glowing Skin:

Mix 01 ripe banana with 01 tablespoon of fresh aloe vera gel and apply this mixture to the face. Massage for a few minutes, leave for 15-20 minutes, and then rinse off for a glowing complexion.

*  Acne and Soothing Mask:

Mix 01 tablespoon of fresh aloe vera gel with 1/2 a mashed banana and 01 teaspoon of honey. Apply this mixture to clean skin to calm inflammation, reduce redness, and hydrate dry, sensitive skin. Leave for 15-20 minutes, and rinse with warm water.

Hair Treatment for Shine:

Mix 01 fresh ripe banana with 03 tablespoons of fresh aloe vera gel and 01 teaspoon of honey. Apply from scalp to ends, massage for 10-15 minutes and then let it dry for maximum absorption. Rinse thoroughly with cool water for soft, shiny, and frizz-free hair.

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