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Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of stabilization, but poverty to remain elevated

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Sri Lanka’s economy is projected to see moderate growth of 2.2% in 2024, showing signs of stabilization, following the severe economic downturn of 2022. But, the country still faces elevated poverty levels, income inequality, and labor market concerns, says the World Bank’s latest bi-annual update.

The Sri Lanka Development Update, Bridge to Recovery, highlights that Sri Lanka saw declining inflation, higher revenues on the back of the implementation of new fiscal policies, and a current account surplus for the first time in nearly five decades, buoyed by increased remittances and a rebound in tourism.

However, poverty rates continued to rise for the fourth year in a row, with an estimated 25.9% of Sri Lankans living below the poverty line in 2023. Labor force participation has also seen a decline, particularly among women and in urban areas, exacerbated by the closure of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Households are grappling with multiple pressures from high prices, income losses, and under employment. This has led to households taking on debt to meet food requirements and maintain spending on health and education.

“Sri Lanka’s economy is on the road to recovery, but sustained efforts to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis on the poor and vulnerable are critical, alongside a continuation of the path of robust and credible structural reforms,” emphasized Faris Hadad-Zervos, World Bank Country Director for Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. “This involves a two-pronged strategy: first, to maintain reforms that contribute to macroeconomic stability and second, to accelerate reforms to stimulate private investment and capital inflows, which are crucial for economic growth and poverty reduction.”

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD

Looking forward, the report projects a modest pickup in growth of 2.5% in 2025, with a gradual increase in inflation and a small current account surplus. However, high debt service obligations are expected to exert pressure on fiscal balances. Poverty rates are anticipated to remain above 22% until 2026. Risks to the outlook remain, particularly related to inadequate debt restructuring, reversal of reforms, financial sector vulnerabilities, and the enduring impact of the crisis. The report emphasizes that strong reform implementation will be fundamental to fostering a resilient economy through continued macro-fiscal-financial stability, greater private sector investment, and addressing risks associated with state-owned enterprises.

The Sri Lanka Development Update is a companion piece to the South Asia Development Update, a twice-a-year World Bank report that examines economic developments and prospects in the South Asia region and analyzes policy challenges faced by countries. The April 2024 edition, Jobs for Resilience, projects South Asia to remain the fastest-growing region in the world, with growth projected to be 6.0% in 2024- driven mainly by robust growth in India and recoveries in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. But this strong outlook is deceptive, says the report. For most countries, growth is still below pre-pandemic levels and is reliant on public spending. At the same time, private investment growth has slowed sharply in all South Asian countries and the region is not creating enough jobs to keep pace with its rapidly increasing working-age population. The report recommends a range of policies to spur firm growth and boost employment as well as help lift growth and productivity and free up space for public investments in climate adaptation.



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Strong demand for government securities signals caution over Sri Lanka’s broader economy

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Investor appetite for Sri Lanka’s government securities strengthened sharply during the week ending May 22, with the Treasury Bill auction attracting bids amounting to about 1.7 times the offered volume, while secondary market transactions in Treasury Bills and Bonds surged 22.8 percent from the previous week, according to the latest weekly report of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

The renewed demand for government securities appears to reflect a growing preference among investors for safer and more liquid assets at a time when several segments of the economy are showing signs of uncertainty despite the broader macroeconomic recovery.

A market analyst told The Island Financial Review that the rise in demand for Treasury securities is likely driven by a combination of factors including rising inflation expectations, weakening equity market sentiment, currency depreciation pressures and investors may be attempting to lock in currently attractive yields before any further decline in market interest rates.

“The National Consumer Price Index-based headline inflation accelerated to 4.7 percent in April from 2.4 percent in March, while core inflation also rose to 4.4 percent. Such inflationary pressures may have encouraged institutional investors to lock into relatively attractive government yields before any future market volatility emerges,” he said.

At the same time, the Colombo stock market came under pressure during the week, with the All Share Price Index falling 4.26 percent and the S&P SL20 Index declining 3.55 percent.

The analyst said that part of the funds flowing into government securities may have shifted away from equities as investors sought more predictable returns.

“Another important factor supporting government securities is the persistent surplus liquidity in the banking system. The outstanding market liquidity remained in surplus at Rs. 141.27 billion by May 22, although slightly lower than the previous week’s Rs. 156.8 billion. Excess liquidity typically pushes banks and large institutional investors toward government debt instruments, particularly when private sector credit expansion remains subdued,” he noted.

“According to the data, foreign holdings of Treasury Bills and Bonds declined by 3.32 percent during the week. This suggests the recent demand surge was driven largely by domestic investors rather than foreign inflows, underscoring strong local institutional confidence in government-backed instruments,” he added.

In conclusion, he noted that the strong oversubscription at Treasury auctions reflects growing market confidence that Sri Lanka’s domestic debt market remains one of the few relatively stable investment avenues amid external vulnerabilities and domestic realities.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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INSEE Lanka powers ‘Build Sri Lanka Exhibition 2026’ as corporate sponsor

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INSEE Lanka, Sri Lanka’s fully integrated cement manufacturer and market leader, took center stage as the Corporate Sponsor of the Build Sri Lanka Housing & Construction Exhibition 2026, organised by the Chamber of Construction Industry of Sri Lanka (CCI). The partnership showcases INSEE’s commitment to advancing the country’s construction sector through quality, sustainability, and industry collaboration.

The exhibition was held from 22-24 May 2026 at BMICH. Stakeholders representing different sectors of the Construction Industry and international participants will be present.

As Sri Lanka’s construction sector enters a new era, the need to unite, innovate, and collaborate has never been greater. Build Sri Lanka is recognized as one of the industry’s most influential events and brings together the full construction value chain including manufacturers, suppliers, architects, engineers, developers, and homeowners into one dynamic platform.

Build Sri Lanka also plays a vital role in bridging industry knowledge with public understanding, enabling informed decision‑making for the construction ecosystem.

For INSEE Lanka, the exhibition is an opportunity to showcase capabilities to contribute to shaping the future of construction in Sri Lanka. Participation also highlights a dedication to drive progress to benefit the sector and the country, creating lasting value for communities and the environment.

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Prime Lands and Melwa set new benchmark in waterfront living at Port City

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In a major boost for Sri Lanka’s luxury real estate sector, industrial giants Prime Lands and Melwa Conglomerate have partnered to develop a landmark USD 57.6 million marina-front project at Port City Colombo. The four-acre parcel, located within the city’s Marina District, will feature ultra-luxury residences with uninterrupted waterfront views—a rare design combining direct access to both the marina and water channel. Construction is set for completion in four years, with projected revenues exceeding USD 250 million.

This collaboration signals growing investor confidence in Sri Lanka’s long-term economic direction, as Port City Colombo operates as the nation’s first foreign currency-designated Special Economic Zone. Beyond luxury living, the project aims to attract global buyers and long-term capital, positioning Colombo as an international lifestyle and investment hub. Prime Lands, Sri Lanka’s top real estate developer, brings three decades of local expertise, while Melwa contributes decades of experience in steel and infrastructure. Together, they emphasize financial discipline, transparency, and global standards—setting a new benchmark for waterfront living and reinforcing Sri Lanka’s presence on the global investment map.

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