Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100), increased to 11.1 per cent in November 2021 from 8.3 per cent in October 2021.
Meanwhile, on an annual average basis, the NCPI increased to 6.2 per cent in November 2021 from 5.7 per cent in October 2021.
Inflation was driven by monthly increases of prices of items in both Food and Non-food categories. Subsequently, Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 16.9 per cent in November 2021 from 11.7 per cent in October 2021, while Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) also increased to 6.2 per cent in November 2021 from 5.4 per cent in October 2021.
Monthly change of NCPI recorded at 3.14 per cent in November 2021 due to increases observed in prices of items in both Food and Non-food categories which were 2.61 per cent and 0.53 per cent, respectively. Accordingly, within the Food category, prices of vegetables, rice, milk powder, big onions, fresh fish and chicken increased. Further, prices of items in the Non-Food category recorded increases mainly due to price increases observed in Restaurant and Hotels and Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco sub-categories during the month.
The core inflation (Y-o-Y), which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy increased to 8.8 per cent in November 2021 from 7.2 per cent in October 2021, while annual average core inflation increased to 5.0 per cent in November 2021 from 4.6 per cent in October 2021.
Seven factors of concern at upcoming Monetary Policy Review
by Sanath Nanayakkare
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy review on 20th January 2022, with all eyes on dwindling foreign reserves and foreign currency exchange in the country.
In this context, First Capital Research has named 7 factors of concern that could be taken into account at the upcoming monetary policy review. They are as follows.
* Foreign Reserves USD 3.1 billion – Dec 2021
* Inflation CCPI 12.1% – Dec 2021
* GDP Growth -1.5% – 3Q2021
* Private Credit LKR 60.5 billion – Nov 2021
* 03M T-Bill rate 8.38% as at 12.01.22
Liquidity and CBSL Holdings LKR -364.0 billion and LKR 1.42 trillion
Balance of Trade (BOT) and Balance of Payment (BOP) USD -6.5 billion and USD -3.3 billion for Jan-Oct 21
First Capital Research’s Policy Rate Forecast – Jan 2022-Apr 2022 notes that they believe the CBSL may highly consider tightening the monetary policy rates in this policy review but given the concerns over economic growth, there is a probability of 40% for CBSL to maintain its policy stance at current levels.
“With high frequent indicators improving in line with expectations, we have eliminated any probability of a rate cut. We expect a continued increase in probability for a rate hike in order to prevent overheating of the economy amidst the given fiscal and monetary stimulus,” they said.
As per First Capital’s view, CBSL either can choose to hike policy rates by 50bps or 100bps or hold policy rates steady, while a rate cut is off the table due to the high debt repayment and the high domestic borrowing requirement.
First Capital believes that there is a 60% probability for a rate hike due to the remedial actions required in achieving external stability.
However, there is also a 40% probability to maintain the policy rates at its current level in order to further improve the high frequency indicators.30%, they noted.
Sri Lanka’s dash brand enters international markets
Multichemi International Ltd, which manufactures and distributes a wide range of products under dash, one of Sri Lanka’s leading detergent and household care brands, has begun exporting its products to several international markets in Asia and Oceania, with plans also to enter Africa. The dash brand includes a wide range of products in car care, household care, home fragrances and laundry care sectors. Multichemi International Ltd, which has been awarded ISO 9001:2015 certification, is a Sri Lankan pioneer in environment-friendly cleaning products, having launched the country’s first biodegradable, safe cleaning products over 28 years ago.
Amila Wijesinghe, General Manager of the Company said,”Having conquered the domestic market, we are now ready to capture the international market. We are confident that our products which are of high quality will receive a good demand overseas as well. The feedback we have received so far from our overseas customers is extremely encouraging. We are dedicated to taking our products to the international market, to bring in foreign currency to the country and help uplift the economy”,
Janaka Abeysinghe appointed SLT CEO
Sri Lanka Telecom PLC has announced the appointment of Janaka Abeysinghe as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) with effect from February 1, 2022.
The incumbent CEO Kiththi Perera will be overseas on leave for a period of two years to pursue higher studies, according to a stock market filing by the company.
Abeysinghe joined SLT in 1991. In his present role, he leads the enterprise and wholesale business of SLT that provides integrated voice and data solutions to enterprises, government institutions, domestic telco operators and global wholesale carriers.
In his career at SLT spanning 29 years, he has held a number of senior positions, including general manager Enterprise and International Sales and has extensive experience in the areas of Enterprise Digital Services, Enterprise Communications Solutions, Data Communications, Business Development, Domestic and International Switching Operations and Global Wholesale Voice & Data Business.
He holds a Master’s Degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering from the University of Kansas, USA and a BSc degree in Electronics and Telecommunications Engineering with a First Class Honours from the University of Moratuwa.
A Good Guide to the Omicron Variant
NGO to move SC against acquittal and discharge of first accused
Rebirth in Buddhism
‘Dates have the highest sugar content to fight Coronavirus’
Sunday Island 27 December – Headlines
7-billion-rupee diamond heist; Madush splls the beans before being shot
News7 days ago
Sirisena remains defiant; SLPP-SLFP ties deteriorate
News6 days ago
Female suspect dies after allegedly jumping from CID fifth floor
Sports4 days ago
Wellalage grabs four for none as Sri Lanka cruise to crushing win
Sports7 days ago
With Hasaranga out, SL pray Chameera pulls through
News5 days ago
Welikada killings: Prisons Chief sentenced to death, IP acquitted
Sports3 days ago
Mendis to open in Zimbabwe ODIs
Features3 days ago
A nation caught in the 20-Trap
News3 days ago
Easter Sunday carnage cannot be blamed on Muslim extremists alone – Cardinal