South Africa have looked every bit the dark horses they have been touted as. Following a chastening opening game defeat to England, they’ve won three on the bounce, most notably taking down India. And a win in Colombo will take them to eight points on the table, and see them have one foot in the semi-finals with two further games to play.

But while the head-to-head record between South Africa and Sri Lanka in WODIs seems fairly one-sided – 16 wins and six defeats in favour of South Africa – their more recent record speaks towards a far more evenly matched contest with their past five matches since the start of 2024, seeing shared spoils at two wins apiece.

Two of those games came at the R. Premadasa earlier this year, with each side winning one, so while this will be South Africa’s first game in Colombo at this World Cup, separating these two units might very well come down to the toss of a coin – or indeed the weather gods.

In six WODIs batting first at the Khettarama, Sri Lanka has crossed the 200 mark just twice – once in 1999 and once on Tuesday against New Zealand. Tuesday was also the first time they posted a first-innings total above 250 at the venue, a feat that would not have been possible if not for Nilakshika Silva‘s blazing 55 off 28. Silva’s late career renaissance has seen her average 44.50 with a strike rate of 84.89 since the start of 2024, all while mostly batting at number six. Her 534 runs also makes her Sri Lanka’s third-most prolific batter behind Chamari Athapaththu and Harshitha Samarawickrama, during this period.

Laura Wolvaardt has grown into this tournament. After poor showings against England and New Zealand, she played a pivotal role in their defeat of India before again providing a stable start in a chase against Bangladesh. This might not be particularly pleasing news to those of Sri Lankan persuasion, as Wolvaardt has long been a problematic opponent. In 10 WODIs against Sri Lanka, Wolvaardt has 546 runs at a staggering average of 91 and strike rate of 80.88. What’s more she’s been dismissed just six times over that period – a feat made more impressive as she opens the batting.

Sri Lanka changed up their bowling lineup in the previous game, but were unable to test it. With their batting finally clicking, it’s likely they name an unchanged XI.

Sri Lanka (probable): Chamari Athapaththu (capt), Hasini Perera, Vishmi Gunaratne, Harshita Samarawickrama, Kavisha Dilhari, Nilakshika de Silva, Anushka Sanjeewani (wk), Piumi Wathsala, Sugandika Kumari, Malki Madara, Inoka Ranaweera

There is something to be said for not changing a winning combination. So there might be not much by way of experimentation this game.

South Africa (probable):  Laura Wolvaardt (capt),  Tazmin Brits,  Anneke Bosch,  Annerie Dercksen,  Marizanne Kapp,  Sinalo Jafta,  Chloe Tryon,  Nadine de Klerk,  Masabata Klass,  Nonkululeko Mlaba,  Tumi Sekhukhune

[Cricinfo]