South Africa’s 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka at home has reduced what was a five-team conquest to what is now effectively a three-way race to the Lord’s finale next June. New Zealand squandered their outside chances thanks to the series whitewash in India following the two defeats to England at home while Australia and India tussle it out in what seems like a knockout clash between the two to take on the hot favourites South Africa. Here’s how it looks for the three teams in contention.

Points table (as on Dec 9, 2024)

South Africa

The Proteas turned their WTC campaign on its head with their fifth successive win after having just a solitary win in their first five matches and they currently sit at the top of the table with 63.33%. One win against Pakistan is all they need for a ticket to Lord’s while two wins could see them most likely topping the table. If they lose both Tests to Pakistan, they could most likely miss out as both India and Australia can finish above them, as can Sri Lanka if they beat Australia 2-0. As South Africa play fewer games compared to the other sides in contention, the net effect of a win or a loss affect their PCT much more than other sides.

Australia

Australia were temporarily back to the top of the charts after their thumping ten wicket win in Adelaide but have dropped one place down after South Africa’s win in Gqeberha. Two wins out of the three remaining Tests against India should give them insurance from the nature of the series scoreline in the two Tests Sri Lanka. In the event of Border Gavaskar trophy ending in a 2-2 stalemate, Australia will need at least one Test win in Sri Lanka to finish above India and not depend on South Africa’s results. If Australia lose 2-3 to India, they will need to win both the Tests in Sri Lanka to progress without depending on South Africa’s results.

India

The two-time WTC finalists find themselves in a precarious situation following a run of four defeats in their last five Tests after topping the table for most of the first half of the cycle. For India not to depend on other results, they will need to win at least two and draw the other of their three remaining games in Australia to give them insurance against a 2-0 win for Australia in Sri Lanka. If India wins the Border Gavaskar trophy by a 2-1 margin, Australia can still finish ahead of them if they beat Sri Lanka 2-0 as can South Africa if they win one more Test.

If the scoreline against Australia ends 2-2 and both the Tests between Australia and Sri Lanka end in draws, both India and Australia will be tied on 55.26% with India progressing by virtue of more series wins (three for India to Australia’s two). But if Australia gains anything more than eight points in Sri Lanka (two draws gives eight points), then they will finish ahead of India’s 55.26%. A series defeat by any margin would end India’s hopes of a third consecutive final appearance irrespective of their remaining results.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka chances got severely dented after the series loss in South Africa but can still finish in the top two if the results pan out in the following way:

– Sri Lanka beat Australia 2-0 and end on 53.85%.

AND

– South Africa drop both Tests against Pakistan and finish on 52.78%. Then only one among Australia or India can top Sri Lanka’s tally of 53.85%.

OR

– If South Africa gain at least one draw against Pakistan, they will finish above 55%, then Border Gavaskar trophy ends with a 2-1 win for the hosts and both Australia (53.51%) and India (51.75%) finish below Sri Lanka’s 53.85%