Features
US Election – More of the Same?
By Gwynne Dyer
By the time you read this you may know more than I do as I write it, but some conclusions about the US election are already certain.
First, this has been essentially a re-run of the 2016 presidential election. The final Electoral College tally and therefore the presidency may still be in doubt, but we already know the popular vote, and it’s about the same ratio as when Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee four years ago.
Biden currently has 50% of the votes versus 48% for Trump, and the races in the remaining undecided states are all very close so that ratio is unlikely to change. This means that Biden got at least 3 million more votes than Trump, but that is no more a guarantee of victory than Clinton’s 3 million majority in 2016.
So the Electoral College is as big a problem as ever, and the Great Demographic Shift that was going to make a Republican victory impossible is still becalmed somewhere over the horizon.
Secondly, the Republicans are almost certain to keep their majority in the Senate, in which case they can block any new legislation the Democrats want to pass even if Biden does win the presidency. That includes any attempt to tackle the Electoral College issue, which was a fairly forlorn hope in any case.
Not winning the Senate also means the Democrats cannot create new Supreme Court judges, which is their only possible way to roll back the Republican policy of packing that court with conservative appointees (currently a 6-3 majority). In that case Supreme Court decisions that will probably re-ban abortion and dismantle Obama’s healthcare reforms will be impossible to reverse.
Finally, the culture war (mostly without guns) that already obsesses and disfigures the United States will continue. Indeed, it will intensify if Trump loses the election but continues to deny it and claim fraud, as he most certainly will. Losing the presidency is virtually an existential question for him, since without it he would be exposed to an avalanche of legal charges.
There has been some speculation that an amnesty would encourage him to accept his electoral defeat and leave the White House quietly, and that would be a good idea if it could actually work. Unfortunately, even a victorious Joe Biden could only offer Trump an amnesty for federal charges, and some of Trump’s worst legal problems are at state level.
So, Trump must hang on to the leadership of the Republican Party and mount as many legal challenges as possible to the voting and vote-counting processes. Back in his real-estate days his first reflex was to tie his opponents up in court battles, even if the courts were ultimately likely to decide against him.
At the very least that was a way of buying more time, and now there’s also the slim chance that some key lower-court decision might be get appealed all the way up to his friends on the Supreme Court.
The battle in the courts will be long and exhausting, and there’s not going to be any ‘closure’ or ‘healing’ in America in the aftermath of the election.
At the time of writing it looks like Joe Biden will eke out a win and become the 46th president, but his victory will be as unconvincing in the eyes of foreigners as it is to many of his fellow Americans. A conclusion that has been growing elsewhere about the United States since 2016 has only been strengthened by this election: America is not to be trusted.
Almost re-electing Donald Trump, after having had the opportunity to observe his behaviour close up for every day (literally) of the past four years, reflects very poorly on the common sense of the American public. If half of them cannot even see through such an obvious fraud, should they really be allowed out without adult supervision?
More importantly, are they to be trusted as partners and/or allies? For example, Biden might rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement (which the US officially quit on Wednesday), but it is actually a treaty and he’ll never get it ratified by the Senate. Obama got around this once by pretending it wasn’t really a treaty, but it’s hard to get away with that trick twice.
The same goes for America’s existing alliances and trade deals. They may be safe under a Biden presidency, but other countries would be unwise to count on them for the long term.
The partners and allies will have to start looking for insurance elsewhere, because it is now clear that Trump was not a fluke. The ‘other America’ is permanently just one roll of the electoral dice away from regaining power, and it is both ugly and unreliable.
Features
Hemin Hemin superior to being badgered; retribution comes; obstinacy may cause WWIII
Warnings have been issued, even in editorials, that promises made in election manifestos by parties, even the more responsible minded NPP, have to be accepted as slightly exaggerated and not implementable immediately. Cass would like to use the phrase ‘taken with a pinch of salt’ regarding election promises, which to her is actually what she means but won’t say it in case she is accused of being frivolous in such a serious matter as country policy decision making and undertaking.
Go slow in Expectations
As is pointed out by the wiser and more knowledgeable all round, time must be given to any new government to implement promises made, and again not to believe all will be met. We, Sri Lankans, have some distinct national characteristics like lotus eating which produces indolence; being akin to soda bottles – sudden spurts of activity, mostly anger and then after damage is done subsiding, froth and bubble forgotten. Also, ever ready to point fingers of accusation outside at others, never at ourselves.
Warnings that the new government which may be solely NPP or a mixed one will necessarily need time to implement promises such as salary increases; life made easier to live; catch rogues, slam them in prison and bring looted billions back to the country where it all belongs. These will take time. Some cannot even be fulfilled like bringing looted money back since the looters would certainly have done their evil with no tracks and traces left. People’s policy should be to wait patiently for a while, go hemin hemin on expectations and demands and be thankful that at least the prevention of two national curses is in place resulting in much less corruption and public servants working as they should.
Cassandra laughed slyly when reading an editorial warning that the youth, not witnessing quick action and implementation of NPP or other parties’ promises, may take to protests and perchance violence as of 1971 against Mrs B’s government and in 1989 may erupt.
No fear dahling! Remember it was the then JVP that organised and set in motion the protests, extremely violent in the late 1980s. They are wiser, much more democratic and instilled by the actions of the mini Cabinet of three confidence. The JVP is now very different from what it was in 1971 and 1989, or so we believe.
Confidence that they, the new leaders, are sensible, wise and even accepted as thus apparently by the international community is a given. The American ambassador was instrumental in bringing a US manufacturing project to Sri Lanka from China. The absence of horas in the departments that deal with foreign investment makes rank corruption a vile practice of the past. Mr 10 percents descending on SL to peck a picking and returning to a life of luxury and locals following suit are also, mercifully, things of the past. Kaputas will be kaput, we expect
A virulent virus in remand prison?
It is a mystery but a fact that whenever a political VIP is remanded, he has to be immediately hospitalised – at the prison hospital or more generously in the National Hospital, Colombo, and for sure in the highest paying rooms with full liberty except to walk out, sorry, chauffeur driven in the most luxurious vehicle. These – unlicensed – are being discovered by the dozen. Keheliya Rambukwella, who Cassandra makes bold to accuse of directly or indirectly causing the death of many by allowing the import of dangerous drugs solely to make illicit money, is one such. He fell ill the moment he was remanded and so sick that he was even allowed food to be brought from home.
There are others, the latest being Lohan Ratwatte. Monday November 5 The Island reported he had been taken into custody for possessing a vehicle stolen overseas and brought into SL. We thought he was a sturdy strong man, quick on the draw even in peaceful hotels and invading prisons when the Minister with a mini-shorts clad girl to frighten poor prisoners, while other frustrated men drooled over the girlish spectacle. The moment he entered the remand prison he fell ill and so ill that he had to be transferred to the general hospital.
Hence my theory there is a virus, short of being deadly, which ghouls the Colombo remand prison. It is mercifully selective; attacks only the very rich, and powerful politicians. Proof again of Sri Lanka being a land like no other, harbouring such a virus.
One politician who was different was Hirunika Premachandra. Sentenced to three years imprisonment for a 2015 abduction of a youth, she spent four or five days in remand prison in an ordinary cell, probably sharing it with convicted female prisoners. She was released on bail on 22 July this year as she appealed against the judgment. No virus attacked her; brave woman that she is. She emerged from incarceration looking lovely as ever with nary a complaint; rather did she comment on the treatment she received and how it was good to spend days and nights in confinement with the hoi polio (not her words) law offenders. Unlike the other quick-to-sickness
male political detainees she had to be separated from her three young children, and she bravely bore it all. Her ‘crime,’ too, was far from abetting the killing of people and crass dishonesty.
No compromise, no heed to mass killing of innocents
Maybe Cass is chicken-hearted and dodges reality, but she just cannot watch or read about the horrendous situation involving Israel, Gaza, Palestine and now Lebanon with Iran in the immediate periphery. To her simple mind, she cannot understand how Israel particularly can kill so wantonly. Why cannot Hamas/Hezbollah declare they will not fight a war anymore? One cannot expect Netanyahu alone to do this. One party has to compromise. Lives have to be saved, especially those of children.
A video clip I watched had Prof Jeffrey Sachs in an interview categorically state that the US should move to stop the war by withdrawing all help – arms, money – to Israel. “Where is western civilisation when Israel is massacring hundreds of thousands and bombing indiscriminately, now threatening Iran? The pervasive view around the world is that there is no western move to stop genocide; not one attempt to reign in US operation carried out by Israel, with silence from Western Europe. A stark failure of American politics.
Netanyahu leads the US to commit disaster after disaster and the US Senate applauds him. Netanyahu will take the world to WWIII just to prevent Palestinians from having a state of their own. A strong US President is needed to stop the war and that is what the Presidents of the US have to do.”
Jeffrey David Sachs is an American economist and public policy analyst who is a professor at Columbia University and was director of the university’s The Earth Institute.
New US Prez
Shocking surprise to Cass that Trump won the US presidential election. She fully expected the American voter to be sane and sensible enough to vote in Kamala Harris, who was empathetic to the less privileged and had much better policy plans than Trump, who spoke almost solely of immigration. He is still running down women. Hearing his acceptance speech on Wednesday noon felt like an actual body blow to Cass. We, Sri Lankan voters, are so much more enlightened than the Americans who rooted for “Make America Great Again” which to the perpetrator means “Make me great again and save me from all the pending court cases.”
Features
‘Popular will’ and the democratic process in the US and outside
The just concluded presidential election in the US could very well have been the tightest ever such contest in the world’s ‘mightiest democracy’ in recent decades. With some reservations it could be said that the democratic system of government triumphed once again in the US and that the ‘popular will’ asserted itself.
It would have been preferable if the President of the US was elected only by the ‘popular vote’ or the majority of votes she or he directly polls countrywide but unfortunately this is not the case. The Electoral College (EC) system gets in the way of this happening effectively and it is gladdening to note that this issue is being addressed by the more reflective sections in the US. It is time for this question to receive the complete attention of the US’ voting public.
Hopefully, the ‘pluses’ and ‘minuses’ of the EC system would be fully examined by the US public in the days ahead. Right now, critics of the system could not be faulted for seeing it as distorting somewhat the ‘popular will’ or the overall preference of the US voting public in its choice of President.
The close contests between the contenders in what are termed the ‘Swing States’ helped highlight some notable limitations in the EC system. It ought to be plain to see that the requirement that the ‘winner takes all’ of the EC votes in these states needs urgent questioning and rectification.
However, the US and the world’s thriving democracies could take heart from the fact that there has been a legitimate transition of power in the US in the most democratic of ways possible at present for the US. Considering this it could be said that the US is continuing as a frontline, vibrant democratic state.
Not to be forgotten too is the fact that the elections to the US House of Representatives and the Senate have also been simultaneously completed on the basis of laid down legal procedures. That is, elections to all tiers of government have been concluded, testifying to the fact that the ‘democratic health’ of the US is unquestionable.
‘Democracies’ come in numerous forms and it is open to question whether a rigorous definition of the term could be given. Even some of the most authoritarian, autocratic and theocratic states prefer to call themselves ‘democracies’. At first glance, these considerations could lead to some bafflement but it could be stated that, generally, it is only those governing systems that lead to the total empowerment of people that could be considered democratic.
Defenders of and apologists for authoritarian and dictatorial regimes could shoot back on hearing the above observations that since their regimes satisfy the material needs of their populations, their states fully qualify for democratic status.
But the defenders of democracy, correctly understood, may beg to defer. The total empowerment of individuals and publics is realized only when the latter enjoy fundamental rights and freedoms, as enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, for example.
Accordingly, a regime that does not permit its people total Freedom of Speech and Thought, for instance, could in no way be seen as empowering its people. A regime that does not allow its citizenry the latter rights is repressive and undemocratic and is out of step with democratic development. In fact it is the latter process that even facilitates the material empowerment of publics.
Assessed on the basis of the above yardsticks, the US and other Western states, where fundamental freedoms are generally ‘alive and well’ could be considered democratic although absolute or perfect democracies could nowhere be found. Democracy is a process and it needs to be enriched and given greater depth, going forward. The process is long term and one which progressively evolves.
Besides the above considerations, advanced democracies are also characterized by multiple political parties that contest for power within the parameters of democratic principles. States that lack these essential attributes could not be considered democratic.
Going forward, states East and West need to be guided by the above principles because minus the multi-faceted empowerment of people, democratic development would not be possible. Seen from this viewpoint, it would be self-defeating for government leaders of the South in particular to consider opposition parties as inessential.
They need to also consider that there is no question of turning back the hands of time and reverting to strait-jacketed, one-party states of the Soviet era. These formations were thrown out by the relevant peoples themselves as incapable of ‘delivering the goods’ most needed by them.
The recent US presidential election campaign speeches were, for the most part, bereft of any substantive content. As a result, it’s difficult to predict as to the specific directions in which US foreign policy would evolve in the days ahead.
However, while a less pluralistic and ethnically accommodative US could be expected under Trump, a more inward looking foreign policy could very well be on the cards as well. A future Trump administration could see a lesser need to be committed to the Ukraine, for instance, and is likely to pursue more of an isolationist foreign policy which could see a gradual friction build-up between the US and its Western allies. Consequently, the cause of democratic development worldwide could suffer.
However, during one of her closing election addresses Presidential contender Kamala Harris left the world with a nugget of wisdom or two which would need to be treasured by policy planners and governments worldwide. She said, among other things, that one’s opponent should not necessarily be seen as one’s enemy. The latter should be spoken to in a most constructive fashion at the same table and be seen as having something essential to contribute towards nation-building.
The above is a stateswoman like pronouncement. If the international community is desirous of ushering a more peaceful world, Harris’ words would need to be dwelt on and consistently acted on. They come at a time when inhumanity internationally is more the norm rather than the exception.
Features
Amazing scene in Mexico…
All the contestants, vying for the title of Miss Universe 2024, are having an awesome time in the city of Mexico. Sri Lanka is represented by Melloney Dassanayaka and she is doing great in the scene over there, according to reports coming my way. Says Melloney: “I’m having an amazing time in Mexico City, and meeting up with these beautiful ladies is incredible.”
She went on to say that she is super grateful for her incredible roommate, Miss Universe Canada! “She’s kind, funny, caring, and a true sweetheart who made this long pageant month, away from family, so much brighter.
“With her talent as a TV host, and her amazing spirit, I couldn’t have asked for a better companion on this journey. “Huge thanks to Miss Universe @missuniverse for connecting me with all these beautiful souls!”
Melloney has also come in for a lot of praise on social media, with many wishing her ‘good luck’, as well as describing her as…
* Sooo beautiful
* Awww she is cute
* So pretty. Good luck
* Wow! She deserves the crown
The beautiful ladies, in the city of Mexico, are now busy rehearsing and getting themselves fine-tuned for the grand finale, scheduled for next Saturday, 16th November.
By the way, the four top beauty pageants in the world, for women, are (1) Miss Universe, (2) Miss World, (3) Miss Earth, and (4) Miss International.
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