Features
TWENTY FIFTH DEATH ANNIVERSARY OF DR.DHARMAWANSA SENADHIRA(1944-1998)
RICE BREEDER PAR EXCELLENCE
That fateful day was July 7, 1998, some 25 long years ago and no one expected the hale and hearty Dr. Dharmawansa Senadhira, reputed Rice Breeder, to meet with such an untimely death in a split second that day. As Program Leader of the International Rice Research Institute’s (IRRI) Flood Prone Rice Research Ecosystem, he was in a group of around 40 scientists attending a Workshop on “Evaluation and Dissemination of New Technologies for increasing the production of flood-prone rice Lands of South and Southeast Asia”, scheduled to be held on July 8 – 9,1998, in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The scientists were returning to Dhaka in two buses after a field trip to the research site at Kuliachan in Kishereganj district.
The two buses were swiftly plying on the Narasingdi-Dhaka Highway. Fatefully, one bus which was also carrying Dr. Senadhira (Sena as we affectionately called him) had overtaken another vehicle, but had not completely returned to the correct lane when an oncoming truck approaching from the opposite direction on the middle of the road, collided head on with the bus, sideswiping it and reportedly drove away without even stopping. The bus driver had tried to return to his lane, but could not completely get out of the truck’s path. The accident happened in Narasingdi at 5.15 p.m. and the location was just two hrs. drive from Dhaka, the destination of the return journey.
Sena was pinned in between the seats and Dr.M.P.Dhanapala (Dhane-Sena’s colleague and Award winning Rice Breeder) who was seated next to him had no injuries except the ensuing terrible shock, and he could not do much except feel Sena’s pulse and see him pass away within a few minutes. Thus ended the life of a great human being and a world renowned scientist that shocked the whole rice world and the scientific community, sheerly due to rash split second driver negligence.
A quarter of a century has passed since this tragic event and memories about Sena still linger on at least among those of us who knew him and some who had heard about him. I thought it is nothing but right to place on record an appreciation about Sena, as a tribute to him, as he was a good friend of mine and that of many others, and had selflessly contributed so much toward rice research in Sri Lanka and the rice world, with his focus on the neediest of the rice growers and consumers. In this endeavor, I got the able assistance of my batch-mate and good friend Dhane as a source of information since he knew much more about Sena and what he did, than I and my sincere thanks are due to him.
Having entered the then University of Ceylon, Peradeniya in 1963, from Hanwella Rajasinghe Central College, his alma mater, Sena graduated in 1967 with a B.Sc (Agriculture), upper second classr degree. Soon after graduation he joined the Whittal Boustead Farm Group, that had a large farm off Hembarawa, Mahiyangana. He worked there during the period 1967/68, as Assistant Manager, involved in land development and large scale rice farming, probably to get some hands-on exposure soon after graduation. In 1968, he joined the Department of Agriculture for his chosen profession as a Research Officer and was attached to the then Central Rice Breeding Station( CRBS), Bathalagoda, as a Rice Breeder.
Sena was a research scholar at IRRI in 1969 and during his stint there, the IRRI scientists reportedly had been impressed with his hard work, dedication and friendly personality and had in fact identified him as a researcher with much potential, at that early stage in his career. In 1972, under a Rockefeller Foundation Fellowship arranged by late Mr. William` Golden, an alumnus from IRRI, he proceeded to the University of California, Davis, where he earned his M.S.degree in Genetics(1974) and Ph.D degree in Genetics (1976) in record time. In 1976, Sena returned to the Department of Agriculture and was posted as Senior Plant Breeder at CRBS (1976-79), before being appointed as Deputy Director of Agriculture for Research (1980-84), in charge of the CRBS.
Dr. Senadhira was one of the most successful rice breeders in Sri Lanka and his initial mentor was Dr. Hector Weeraratne, Senior Plant Breeder at the CRBS, of “H4” fame, and Sena took over the leadership of the rice breeding programme in Sri Lanka in 1976.Since then he began to build up a good system of research management at the CRBS. Responsibilities were allocated to researchers, each of whom had a co-researcher working with him or her in order to ensure continuity of the work being carried out.
Dr. Senadhira was also a great believer in team work for research activities to be successful. Also, he never expected to receive any personal glory for the work he carried out and said that it is all team work, of course with everyone giving his or her best. He carried out regular review meetings and made any necessary mid course corrections in the programs, arriving at such decisions through consensus and also provided the much needed professional guidance to the researchers as and when needed. Sena provided an effective peer leadership to his team in, a) selecting parents for crosses considering desirable traits, b) executing such crosses and c) progeny selection based on accepted plant breeding criteria. .
Sena also continued and further built up the culture and work ethics that prevailed at the CRBS from the time of Dr.Hector Weeraratne, whereby it was customary for the researchers to be present at the ” muster” or “roll-call” of workers at 7 a.m and to start the day’s work at that early hour. Of course, all researchers were resident at the CRBS those days.
In addition he did not make any changes to the allocation of research fields that Dr.Weeraratne had made, based on the relevant soil conditions and the divisions he made for different age classes, for systematization of research work. Dr. Senadhira continued with these practices owing to the systematic screening of breeding populations to different soil conditions that it facilitated and did not make any changes just for the sake of doing so upon taking over the CRBS.
An important new research activity that Dr. Senadhira commenced was to earmark a block of about half an acre getting irrigation water direct from the Bathalagoda tank for a long term trial growing a four month variety without fertilizer but with all other management practices, to find out an indication of the yield levels that can be achieved with zero fertilizer and only natural nitrogen fixation. This plot was continued for around 40 years at a stretch and the yield level achieved was approximately 40 bushels per acre (two metric tons per ha.).
A special noteworthy breeding activity that Dr. Senadhira launched was the breeding of a 75 day paddy variety, the outcome of which was BG 750. The purpose was to have a variety to play the role of a catch crop in some situations where the regular crop has failed early due to some reason and also to adopting the same for cultivation in the rain-fed lands in the intermediate zone during the yala season, where water stagnation is a problem to the farmers for establishing a legume crop during the yala season. Variety BG 750 fitted this role.
Regarding Dr.Senadhira’s field work per se, which he loved so much, I do remember that he always went barefoot, most of the time wearing a beret type hat, which was like some sort of a marker of Sena in the field. It so happened that once (in the early 1980s) Dr.Senadhira and Dr.Dhanapala had gone on a field visit to the land at Boyavalana of late Hon.
Lalith Athulathmudali, then Minister of Science and Technology, for an inspection of the large scale Varietal Adaptability Trial for BG 380 (Mudali wee as called by the farmers) which was laid out in that land. After the inspection and discussion with the Hon. Minister in view of his keen interest in agriculture and paddy farming in particular, the two researchers who were personally served tea by the Hon. Minister had returned by the CRBS car (Nissan Sedan bearing no.31 SRI 1060) and upon reaching the station, Sena had noted that he had forgotten his beret type hat at the Minister’s place. Just then a vehicle sent by the Minister ground to a halt at the CRBS, and the driver was carrying Sena’s hat. This story is narrated here, just to place on record, the high esteem and regard that the late Minister had for Dr.Senadhira in his capacity as a Rice Breeder and head of the CRBS, as they did not have any other association with each other or any familiarity.
Getting back to the CRBS fields, it was such a pleasing sight to see those fields during the season, especially while driving through on that centre road. It will augur well for the present Rice Research and Development Institute (RRDI), Bathalagoda, to revive and build up on the good practices and working culture of the CRBS those days, if they are not adopted now, as it is important to continue with whatever good aspects of the past programs considering their benefits. Another beneficial strategy that Sena consciously implemented was to develop the next line of command that will have to be in place following him (or any one), in order to ensure sustenance of the envisaged programs.
Accordingly, he facilitated the development of the professional capabilities of the rice breeders and also researchers of other disciplines, through appropriate technical training. He was also a firm believer in interdisciplinary research for the total research effort to be successful. Dr.M.P. Dhanapala, his immediate junior colleague and late Mr. C.A.Sandanayake were two senior researchers who had worked with Sena from the start and were moulded closely by him, among others.
Let me quote from an Appreciation on Dr.Senadhira, recorded by his good friend, late Dr.Nimal Ranaweera, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture & Lands, published in the ‘ISLAND’ of 04 Oct.1998.”During the period, 1976 through 1985,he developed the Bathalagoda Rice Research Station to being not only the leading Rice Research Institute in Sri Lanka, but also the best in the Asian Region. It was not unusual for visiting scientists from international and National Research Agencies around the world to compliment the manner in which the station was run and the research conducted. As an outcome of his efforts at Bathalagoda, Sena was able to develop through a team effort, the BG stream of varieties which are really called Bathalagoda. In the International Rice Testing Program(IRTP), these varieties, particularly BG 34-8, BG 94-2 and BG 90-2 out-yielded all other varieties that were introduced to the IRTP for that age class. This was one of the many contributions of Sena to the rice program in Sri Lanka”
Sena accomplished this task through utilizing plant breeding technology and his inherent knack for rice plant selection from among the progenies that were generated, in association with his team of scientists at Bathalagoda. The rice varieties thus developed were widely adopted in Sri Lanka and some of them spread across to several countries in Asia and Africa.
The wide scale adoption of the new improved rice varieties in Sri Lanka was a very significant factor that contributed to phenomenal increases in rice production in the country, pushing up production of rice from 0.8 million tons in 1966 to 3.2 million tons in 1985, a four fold increase over a 20-year period. In recognition of Dr.Senadhira’s invaluable contributions to rice production in Sri Lanka, which were substantial, even though he may not be widely known here, he was honoured with the President’s Award for Scientific Achievement in 1982, followed by the CERES Medal from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in the same year.
In late 1985, IRRI, which had identified Sena’s potential when he was a research scholar there way back in 1969, and followed up on his achievements in Sri Lanka, invited him to join IRRI as an Associate Plant Breeder in the Plant Breeding Department. The Government of Sri Lanka, consented to release him, for work at IRRI, in view of the benefits that could accrue to rice farmers in the whole of Asia inclusive of Sri Lanka through his envisaged work at the international level through IRRI.
Before moving over to Manila, Dr.Senadhira made doubly sure that Dr.M.P. Dhanapala, another award winning Rice Breeder, who was mentored by him was there to take his place, specially considering the deep commitment that he (Dr.Senadhira) had towards the planned progress of the CRBS nurtured by him over the years, to bring it to the high level of recognition that it had achieved by 1985. In fact, I personally knew that Sena almost planted Dhane at the official residence of the Head of CRBS, before he bid good bye.
Having moved to IRRI, Sena really got on to inter disciplinary and international collaboration through appropriate liaison with the National Agricultural Research Systems of the Asian countries, to identify their problems pertaining to rice and seek solutions. His focus was on growing rice in problem soils, mostly occupied by extremely poor people and also developing more nutritious rice varieties for the poor, such as rice varieties high in iron and zinc.
While being engaged at IRRI, Sena continued to support the rice program in Sri Lanka, and made sure that germ plasm would be sent on time, training opportunities arranged and due to his efforts the IRRI-GOSL collaborative program of 1990-1995 got under way and was successfully completed. He visited Sri Lanka at least twice a year and after seeing his mother, brothers and sister at Ranala, he used to spend more time in Bathalagoda, visiting and walking in the fields, talking to researchers and helping them out, meeting workers and farmers in the area. I used to meet him in the evenings at Bathalagoda as and when possible during his visits and he loved these meetings in which other friends too joined.
In recognition of his work at IRRI, Dr.Senadhira was promoted as Plant Breeder in 1990 and was also appointed as Program Leader of the Flood-Prone Rice Research Ecosystem in 1995 and he concurrently served as Liaison Scientist for Thailand. Sena also served as research adviser of 10 MS and seven Ph.D scholars from various countries.
Dr. Senadhira’s achievements over the 13 years that he served IRRI were remarkable. He spearheaded the institute’s rice breeding program for less favourable lands with soil problems, flood prone environments as well as for areas subject to low temperature conditions. He initiated a major effort to develop high yielding varieties for problem soils. viz. saline, acid-sulphate and peaty.
For his outstanding contributions to rice improvement, Dr.Senadhira was honoured with the Honorary Fellowship of the Crop Science Society of the Philippines and named as an Honorary Senior Scientist of the Rural Development Administration of Korea. Moreover, the Award of the Fukui International Koshihikari Rice Prize offered by Japan, for which he was nominated in June, 1998, prior to his death and was bestowed posthumously in November,1998,is a fitting tribute to Dr.Senadhira’s lifelong contributions to the rice world during his 13 years’ service at IRRI and before that during the 17 years at the CRBS, Bathalagoda of the Department of Agriculture. With courtesy of Dr.Senadhira’s family members, the prize money (approximately USD 2,500) has been deposited in the ‘Biennial Dr.Senadhira Rice Research Award Fund’, which is being executed by the IRRI Secretariat.
On a personal level, Sena was known to me from 1965 onwards as a senior colleague at the Faculty of Agriculture, of the then University of Ceylon, Peradeniya. He was a very simple and an unassuming person with humane qualities and was a popular figure at the Faculty of Agriculture, as well as at Marrs Hall where we resided. He was kind hearted, very helpful and never in a mighty hurry and always calm and quiet, ever willing to provide advice to fellow students on request. Sena was also a man of a few words, which were made to the point and very specific and he lent a quiet efficiency to whatever he did. He carried these inherent desirable qualities on to his working life as a great scientist.
For those of us who visited Los Banos when Sena was there, I am sure happy memories of Sena’s lavish hospitality at his home will stay forever. I have had the good fortune of meeting Sena during the few times I got the opportunity of visiting the Philippines, except on July 9, 1998, by which date Sena had tragically passed away, by the time I set foot on Manila.
As per tributes placed on record by international scientists in his memory, let me quote one made by world renowned Indian scientist, Dr. M.S.Swaminthan, to indicate the high esteem in which he was held.
· M.S Swaminathan, Chairman, M.S.Swaminathan Research Foundation and former Director General,IRRI
“He was truly an outstanding rice breeder and endeared himself to everybody by virtue of his humility, humour and vast knowledge. He fulfilled the early expectations I had of him when I appointed him as rice breeder at IRRI. His contributions to the rice world during the last 14 years at IRRI and earlier 16 years in the Sri Lanka Department of Agriculture are truly monumental.”
It is hard to replace a man like Sena, who was humane to the core and his untimely and premature demise during the peak of his career as a truly international scientist was a big loss not only to Sri Lanka, but also to all rice producing countries and the rice research community worldwide and most of all to those of us who knew him as a friend who was humane and down to earth and were in constant touch with him. His surviving brothers at the time of hi death (Irwin, Walter and Stanley) and sister Sandamali, all of whom have passed away by now, the last to be laid to rest being Sena’s one and only beloved sister, about whom he was concerned so much.
With that, the chapter of the Senadhira family of Ranala that has contributed so much through their youngest sibling Sena closes as far as their physical presence is concerned, but there is sustenance that has to be achieved for whatever Sena established in terms of Rice Research in Sri Lanka and the whole of Asia, and it is very much in the hands of the rice researchers of the present day and the future, to ensure that the noble intentions and objectives of Dr. Senadhira, the Rice Breeder, for rice research could be realized for the benefit of the rice producers and consumers without losing focus on the down trodden growers and consumers as per his wish.
Dear Sena, May God Bless you and may you attain whatever eternal peace that you yearned for as a true Buddhist.
A.BEDGAR PERERA
Retd.Director/Agric.Development
Ministry of Agriculture
Features
Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers
For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.
One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.
Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.
“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”
Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.
Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.
From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.
His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.
This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.
“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”
The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.
Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.
It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.
“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”
That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.
The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”
The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.
Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.
“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”
That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.
In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”
His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.
This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.
“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.
Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.
“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”
In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.
By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
Features
AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap
This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.
There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.
Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.
The Need for Immediate Action
AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.
“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”
Training Teachers and Students
Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.
Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.
Benefits of AI in Education
AI in schools offers numerous advantages:
· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills
· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness
· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy
· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics
· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences
· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition
AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:
· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information
· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions
· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes
· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation
Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.
Global and Local Perspectives
In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.
The Way Forward
Experts urge swift action:
· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.
· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.
· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.
“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”
As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.
BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com
Features
The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad
The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.
Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.
Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.
Restive America
Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.
But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.
Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.
After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.
The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.
In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.
It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.
Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.
But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.
An Obliging World
To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.
Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.
After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.
The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.
But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.
More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.
Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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