Connect with us

Business

‘Trade Policy Effects on Global Value Chain Participation of South Asian Countries: Implications for Bangladesh-Sri Lanka Trade Negotiations’

Published

on

A new IPS study offers empirical evidence that the gains from a preferential trade agreement between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are modest and calls for a trade deal without the weaknesses in existing regional trade agreements.

The study finds that the overall effect of existing regional trade agreements is not positive while the impact on the food sector is negative. Moreover, the negative impact is not limited to the gross exports. The global value chain (GVC) components of exports are also negatively affected.

On average, the complete removal of the sensitive lists will generate 35% and 47% of additional exports for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, respectively. However, the absolute value of exports- USD 2.1 million for Bangladesh and USD 24.5 million for Sri Lanka – is modest due to the low bilateral trade volume.

A new study conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) offers empirical evidence that the gains from a preferential trade agreement between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are modest and calls for a trade deal without the weaknesses in existing regional trade agreements. The study entitled ‘Trade Policy Effects on Global Value Chain Participation of South Asian Countries: Implications for Bangladesh-Sri Lanka Trade Negotiations’ is authored by Asanka Wijesinghe and Chathurrdhika Yogarajah.

The IPS study uses disaggregated export data into GVC components to identify the impact of tariffs and existing trade agreements in the South Asian region on trade. The gravity estimates show that the current level of tariffs hurt gross exports and GVC components of exports. In the food sector, border tariffs negatively affect the intermediate exports that will be processed and re-exported by the importing country. Notably, mixed results are obtained for the effect of RTAs.

When allowed to adjust trade costs by estimating the gravity models with data in intervals, a weak statistically significant positive impact of RTAs on intermediate agricultural exports is evident.

However, the effect of RTAs is strongly negative on all the components of food exports. The RTA effect is weakly significant and negative on GVC components of total trade. The study results imply an offsetting impact of general regulatory measures attached to the trade agreements. Thus, a future PTA between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka should have minimum regulatory measures-rules of origin (ROOs), sensitive lists, prolonged phasing-in- to achieve the agreement’s full potential.

The study also simulates the potential trade gains from eliminating the sensitive lists between the two countries under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). The complete removal of the sensitive lists will generate 35% and 47% of additional exports for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, respectively. However, the absolute value of exports – USD 2.1 million for Bangladesh and USD 24.5 million for Sri Lanka – is modest due to the low bilateral trade volume. Importantly, it will not be feasible to altogether remove sensitive lists due to political and revenue reasons. In addition, being a least developed country, Bangladesh may expect special provisions. Thus, the study identifies products that would maximise trade gains from partial tariff elimination in the final step.

Policy Implications

This IPS study implies that future trade agreements should be sans complex ROO, long sensitive lists, and prolonged phasing-in. In addition, general tariff cuts, instead of preferential tariff cuts, may generate higher trade gains. Significantly, the modest economic benefits from the complete removal of the sensitive lists weigh down on the economic rationale of a PTA. In addition, political and revenue reasons might reduce the scope and depth of a PTA. Thus, the study calls for selective negotiations for removing tariffs on intermediate goods such as dyed cotton and fabrics; cartons, boxes, and cases; plain woven fabrics of cotton; denim; natural rubber; and smoked sheets of natural rubber. The rationale for this approach is that the comparative advantage of both countries lies in the finished products that embed these intermediate products. A PTA can develop value chain participation utilising the scale economies and factor cost advantages.

Access the full report here: https://www.ips.lk/trade-policy-effects-on-global-value-chain-participation-of-south-asian-countries-implications-for-bangladesh-sri-lanka-trade-negotiations/



Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

NDB Bank hosts Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on FY 2024 financial results

Published

on

(Pictured L to R) Himali Nandika – Chief Manager Finance; Alex Perera - VP, CRO; K.V. Vinoj - DCEO; Kelum Edirisinghe - Director/CEO; Sanjaya Perera - SVP, Personal Banking & Customer Experience; Damitha Samaranayake – VP Treasury; Kumudari Peiris – Senior Manager Finance

National Development Bank PLC (NDB) conducted its Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on 12th of March, following the release of the financial results and annual report for the full year ended December 31, 2024.

The session, led by Kelum Edirisinghe, Director and Chief Executive Officer of NDB Bank, along with the bank’s senior management team, was held virtually via Zoom. During the call, the CEO delivered a comprehensive presentation on the bank’s financial performance for FY 2024, its strategic direction, and key operational highlights. This was followed by an interactive Q&A session, providing investors and analysts with valuable insights into the bank’s growth trajectory and future outlook.

The forum attracted a diverse group of stakeholders, including research analysts, stockbrokers, fund managers, and investors. Organized by NDB’s Investor Relations Team, the session reinforced the bank’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. Since 2014, NDB has consistently hosted these quarterly and annual earnings calls, demonstrating a longstanding commitment to fostering trust and accountability. Transcripts and recordings of the call will be made available on the bank’s website, ensuring continued access to key insights.

During the presentation, the CEO highlighted NDB’s strong financial performance in 2024, underpinned by strategic initiatives aimed at optimizing the cost of funds, strengthening portfolio quality, and driving sustainable profitability. The bank’s digital transformation efforts, coupled with a focus on enhancing transactional and fee-based income, played a pivotal role in navigating macroeconomic challenges and positioning NDB for long-term growth. The Q&A session that followed saw insightful discussions on key topics, including the bank’s loan portfolio quality, CASA base, projected loan growth, sources for loan growth, and expectations on interest rate movements in the economy.

Despite the dynamic economic landscape, NDB remained resilient, leveraging its robust risk management framework and customer-centric approach to maintain stability and deliver value to stakeholders.

Continue Reading

Business

ComBank crowned People’s Private Bank Brand of the Year for 3rd successive year

Published

on

Representatives of Commercial Bank led by Deputy General Manager – Human Resources Management Mr Isuru Tillakawardana and Chief Manager Marketing Ms Aparna Jagoda accepting the award on behalf of the Bank.

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has been voted the ‘People’s Private Banking Services Brand of the Year’ for the third consecutive year at the SLIM Kantar People’s Awards 2025, in a significant validation of the Bank’s status as the most popular private sector bank in the country.

Presented by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing (SLIM) and based on research by Kantar, a leading global insights agency, these awards are considered the ultimate testament to consumer-driven recognition in Sri Lanka. They are determined solely by consumer votes rather than a panel of experts, and recognise the brands and personalities that have earned the trust and loyalty of Sri Lankans.

The Bank said this accolade is a testament to the continuing impact of its services in the lives of millions of people, as well as the effectiveness of the Bank’s brand-building efforts and marketing initiatives. The Bank’s continuous engagement with customers, innovative campaigns, and commitment to delivering superior banking experiences have been instrumental in securing this recognition.

Continue Reading

Business

Advancing solar PV integration: A vision for a sustainable energy future

Published

on

During the Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration 2025, Prof. Lilantha Samaranayake emphasised the urgent need for advanced solar photovoltaic (PV) integration to create a resilient and sustainable energy future. Speaking on the Future of Renewable Energy, he highlighted projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that forecast global renewable electricity generation will exceed 17,000 TWh by 2030, representing an almost 90% increase from 2023. Solar PV is anticipated to become the leading source of renewable electricity, followed by wind and hydroelectric power.

Sri Lanka has set an ambitious target of achieving 100% renewable energy. Policymakers are working towards a people-centric, equitable, and affordable energy transition. The government also aims to reduce electricity tariffs by 30% within five years, though no specific timeline has been set for net-zero emissions.

Challenges in Solar PV Integration—While renewable energy adoption is increasing, challenges remain. A major issue is grid stability due to solar energy’s intermittent nature. Grid stability refers to the ability of an electrical power grid to maintain a consistent voltage and frequency while balancing electricity supply and demand. One of the main challenges with integrating solar energy into the grid is its intermittent nature, meaning that solar power generation fluctuates depending on sunlight availability. This variability can cause instability in the grid.

Why is Solar Energy Intermittent? Solar panels generate electricity only when exposed to sunlight. At night, there is no generation, requiring alternative power sources. Cloud cover, rain, and seasonal changes affect solar energy output. On cloudy days, solar generation can drop suddenly, causing fluctuations in power supply. Unlike conventional power plants that provide a steady output, solar energy can vary within minutes, making it challenging to maintain a stable power flow.

How Does This Affect Grid Stability? The Electricity grids operate at a specific frequency (e.g., 50 Hz or 60 Hz). A sudden drop in solar power generation can lead to a decrease in frequency, potentially causing power outages. Solar energy injections can cause voltage levels to rise or drop unpredictably, affecting equipment performance and consumer supply quality. Traditional power plants have rotating generators that provide inertia, helping to stabilise the grid. Solar PV systems do not have this natural inertia, making the grid more susceptible to instability.

Prof. Samaranayake explained that Sri Lanka’s current power generation mix, as of November 2024, includes:

27% from hydroelectric power

19.6% from rooftop solar

14.3% from coal

13.6% from oil

5.1% from private oil plants

Smaller contributions from wind, biomass, and other renewable sources

A key concern is the lack of inertia in renewable energy sources. Unlike conventional power plants, solar and wind do not provide inherent grid stability, leading to frequency fluctuations.

Prof. Samaranayake proposed an innovative solution for grid stability: implementing Virtual Inertia using advanced power electronic control systems. This approach mimics the stabilising effect of traditional rotating generators, ensuring a steady frequency supply in the grid.

Other potential solutions include:

Adding rotating machines such as LNG or nuclear power plants

Energy storage systems like pumped storage, flywheels, and large-scale battery systems

Enhancing grid regulations to support the integration of rooftop solar PV systems

The introduction of advanced Virtual Inertia technology is expected to complement regulatory changes that relax statutory voltage limits and improve the quality of electricity supply.

Another controversial yet forward-looking strategy discussed was the possibility of nuclear energy. According to sources from the Sri Lanka Atomic Energy Board (SLAEB), the country’s first nuclear power plant, leveraging integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) technology, could be operational by 2032. Given Sri Lanka’s proximity to India, which already operates nuclear plants, proponents argue that nuclear energy could be a viable option for stabilizing the power grid.

Prof. Samaranayake stressed the need for a holistic approach, as solar PV continues to be vital to Sri Lanka’s energy future. This involves investing in energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, and enacting regulatory reforms. He called on policymakers, engineers, and the public to collaborate in creating a more sustainable and resilient energy landscape.

The Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration reminds us of engineering and innovation’s critical role in tackling global energy challenges. With strategic planning and technological advancements, Sri Lanka can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable future.

The oration paid tribute to the late Prof. R. H. Paul, a distinguished academic and former Dean of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, who made significant contributions to electrical and electronic engineering in Sri Lanka. His legacy continues to inspire advancements in the energy sector.

Continue Reading

Trending