Features
The Warming World
by Ifham Nizam
In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP, a renowned climate scientist says.
Prof. Buddhi Marambe, Professor in Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, in an exclusive interview with The Island said that considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.
Excerpts:
Q: Many people in Sri Lanka and in the whole world are worried about recent changes in the environmental temperatures. What exactly is happening?
Prof. Marambe
A: The unbearable heat, uncomfortable days and nights, human-health warnings, El Niño, Climate Change were common and have become the “Talk of the Town” over the past few months. Beyond any reasonable doubt, and with scientific proof, global warming has taken place mainly due to climate change. The long-term change in the average weather patterns have defined the local, regional and global climates, which is a fact and not a myth. The warming trend has taken place for a long time, however, unprecedented release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), especially through fossil fuel burning and cutting down of forests, has escalated its pace significantly in the past century. In fact, the available records clearly states that the top 10 warmest years were in the 21stCentury and 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded to-date. Climate scientists, after a careful analysis of the warming trends in the first quarter of this year, have already predicted that 2024 would be the warmest year.
Historically, the naturally-occurring GHGs (Carbon Dioxide – CO2; Methane – CH4;and nitrous oxide N2O) have kept the earth’s surface warm enough to ensuring life on earth. However, by the name of development and industrial revolution that took place during 1750-1800 and beyond in the ‘developed countries’, the unprecedented release of GHGs to the atmosphere has made all of us to experience these negative impacts of climate change.
The excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by the human-induced enhanced levels of GHGs has caused the average global temperature to rise continuously. The most important point is that the GHGs are not the culprit, but the human being whose activities have contributed to increase emission of GHGs.
Q: Many are worried about the ozone layer depletion and El Niño. Can you explain these phenomena and let us know the link to climate change?
A: The ozone layer is like a sun-screen for the earth as it protects life by absorbing ultra-violet (UV) radiation from the sun reducing sunburn. There are ozone-depleting substances that can damage the ozone layer, allowing more UV radiation from the sun to pass through and troubling ecosystem health. The synthetic GHGs such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydro chlorofluorocarbons), and HFCs (hydro fluorocarbons), per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are ozone-depleting substances that have added fuel to fire. Of these, the CFCs were widely banned as they are considered as ozone-depleting substances, aggravating the impact of climate change.
El Niño is a natural process that has been happening for centuries. It refers basically to the changes that take place in Pacific Ocean toward South America where the slowing down or change trade winds will increase the sea surface temperature closer to the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. The situation usually brings heavy rainfall towards South America, severe dryness to Australia and mixed reactions to many other parts of the world. Scientists have still failed to identify a strong link between ElNiño and climate. However, El Niño events increases global temperatures thus, aggravating global warming due to climate change. The ElNiño events take place usually once in 2-7 years.
Q: Recently, I have heard scientists speak of an event called Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD). What is it and how it can have an impact on Sri Lanka?
Indian Ocean Dipole Positive Phase (Image courtesy NOAA.Climate.govt)
A: As El Niño events takes place in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD) is a climate pattern that takes place in the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the Western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.
The IOD positive phase has mostly coincided with ElNiño events, and have brought heavy rains to Sri
Lanka during the initial parts of the Mahaseason. This was clearly evident last year (2023), which was an El Niño year with an IOD positive phase that brought in heavy showers to Sri Lanka in the months of October to December. This severely affected the agriculture sector especially in the Central Highlands with prices of vegetable raising to heights that were unaffordable to many. Sri Lankan scientists were able to predict this in July 2023, and informed the relevant policy makers about the impending disaster. However, nothing much could be done as most of such alarms can only be sound with short lead time to the event.
Nevertheless, the government was able to implement to get farming community to start cultivating early in the month of October (especially the paddy farmers), with the onset of rains to conserve water in the reservoirs for its best use during the latter parts of the season and support land preparation during the following season.
Q: What are the economic impacts caused by the ElNiño events and Climate Change?
A: El Niño and La Niña (the opposite of ElNiño) can impact multiple different aspects of the ecosystem and world economy through floods and droughts. Losses are projected to cost trillions of dollars. Scientists have attributed a global loss of USD 2.1 Trillion and USD 3.9 Trillion due to the extreme El Niño events occurred in 1997-98 and 2015-16. Based on scientific estimates, the El Niño events could cause an additional loss of USD 33 Trillion to the global economy during the remainder of the 21stcentury.
As reported by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction in 2019, the climate-induced hazards in Sri Lanka have increased by 22-fold during the last decade compared to that of 1973-1983. This is alarming. Most of these events has coincided with the El Niño events. For example, the damages due to flooding during the period 1990-2018 has been estimated as over USD 2 billion dollars, and half of which has occurred in 2016 where Sri Lanka faced the heavy beating due to El Niño. Following the El Niño event in 2015/2016, Sri Lanka also experienced a La Niña event resulting in the loss of three consecutive cultivating seasons due to lack of rainfall. Consequently, Sri Lanka had to import about 747,000 metric tons of rice to the tune of USD 300 million to feed the population during the latter part of 2017.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in early July 2023, with more than 85% confidence, that El Niño is on the cards. Once effective, the ElNiño events can last for about a year. In 2023, the Department of Meteorology in Sri Lanka attributed the severe drought in July-September experienced in southern region of the country to the El Niño event, and we still feel its impact. Speculations are that another La Niña will follow this year and in such case, we may experience prolonged drought during the mid to latter part of 2024 affecting agriculture and overall livelihood of people of Sri Lanka.
In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP. Considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.
Q: What efforts have the country made in the policy perspectives to tackle climate change?
A: Sri Lanka has taken many efforts in the policy front to meet the climate challenge. The National Climate Change Policy of 2023 was launched on 2 December in Dubai by His Excellency the President of Sri Lanka at the 28thConference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Sri Lanka developed its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 2021 committing to the global community to reduce GHG emissions by 14.5% by 2030, from that of 2020, in six economic sectors namely, energy, transport, industry, waste forestry and agriculture (including livestock). This voluntary contribution to reduce GHG emissions while being a low emitter (1.03 Mt of CO2 per capita) has been made in two segments, i.e. without (unconditional) and with (conditional) support from developed countries. Sri Lanka has also developed and the NDC Implementation Plan for the period 2021-2030. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) provides the proposed adaptation mechanisms and activities to climate change impacts. These together with the Climate Prosperity Plan of 2022 and the Carbon NetZero 2050 Roadmap and Strategic Plan, provides the required guidance to Sri Lankans to adapt to climate change impacts and also to minimize the contributions made in terms GHG emissions while ensuring sustainable development of the country.
What is required now is the sound implementation structures and mechanisms for the sound plans that are on paper, and commitments of climate-finance and technological interventions with capacity building from development partners and other international agencies to make efforts a ground-reality.
Eight babies have been born in the UK using genetic material from three people to prevent devastating and often fatal conditions, doctors say.
The method, pioneered by UK scientists, combines the egg and sperm from a mum and dad with a second egg from a donor woman.
The technique has been legal here for a decade but we now have the first proof it is leading to children born free of incurable mitochondrial disease.
These conditions are normally passed from mother to child, starving the body of energy.
This can cause severe disability and some babies die within days of being born. Couples know they are at risk if previous children, family members or the mother has been affected.
Children born through the three-person technique inherit most of their DNA, their genetic blueprint, from their parents, but also get a tiny amount, about 0.1%, from the second woman. This is a change that is passed down the generations.
None of the families who have been through the process are speaking publicly to protect their privacy, but have issued anonymous statements through the Newcastle Fertility Centre where the procedures took place.
“After years of uncertainty this treatment gave us hope – and then it gave us our baby,” said the mother of a baby girl. “We look at them now, full of life and possibility, and we’re overwhelmed with gratitude.”
The mother of a baby boy added: “Thanks to this incredible advancement and the support we received, our little family is complete. “The emotional burden of mitochondrial disease has been lifted, and in its place is hope, joy, and deep gratitude.”
Mitochondria are tiny structures inside nearly every one of our cells. They are the reason we breathe as they use oxygen to convert food into the form of energy our bodies use as fuel.
Defective mitochondria can leave the body with insufficient energy to keep the heart beating as well as causing brain damage, seizures, blindness, muscle weakness and organ failure.
About one in 5,000 babies are born with mitochondrial disease. The team in Newcastle anticipate there is demand for 20 to 30 babies born through the three-person method each year.
Some parents have faced the agony of having multiple children die from these diseases.
Mitochondria are passed down only from mother to child. So this pioneering fertility technique uses both parents and a woman who donates her healthy mitochondria.
The science was developed more than a decade ago at Newcastle University and the Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and a specialist service opened within the NHS in 2017.
There was a case of epilepsy, which cleared up by itself and one child has an abnormal heart rhythm which is being successfully treated.
These are not thought to be connected to defective mitochondria. It is not known whether this is part of the known risks of IVF, something specific to the three-person method or something that has been detected only because the health of all babies born through this technique is monitored intensely.
Another key question hanging over the approach has been whether defective mitochondria would be transferred into the healthy embryo and what the consequences could be.
The results show that in five cases the diseased mitochondria were undetectable. In the other three, between 5% and 20% of mitochondria were defective in blood and urine samples.
This is below the 80% level thought to cause disease. It will take further work to understand why this occurred and if it can be prevented.
Prof Mary Herbert, from Newcastle University and Monash University, said: “The findings give grounds for optimism. However, research to better understand the limitations of mitochondrial donation technologies, will be essential to further improve treatment outcomes.”
The breakthrough gives hope to the Kitto family.
Kat’s youngest daughter Poppy, 14, has the disease. Her eldest Lily, 16, may pass it onto her children.
Poppy is in a wheelchair, is non-verbal and is fed through a tube.
“It’s impacted a huge part of her life,” says Kat, “we have a lovely time as she is, but there are the moments where you realize how devastating mitochondrial disease is”.
Despite decades of work there is still no cure for mitochondrial disease, but the chance to prevent it being passed on gives hope to Lily.
“It’s the future generations like myself, or my children, or my cousins, who can have that outlook of a normal life,” she says.
The UK not only developed the science of three-person babies, but it also became the first country in the world to introduce laws to allow their creation after a vote in Parliament in 2015.
There was controversy as mitochondria have DNA of their own, which controls how they function.
It means the children have inherited DNA from their parents and around 0.1% from the donor woman.
Any girls born through this technique would pass this onto their own children, so it is a permanent alteration of human genetic inheritance.
This was a step too far for some when the technology was debated, raising fears it would open the doors to genetically-modified “designer” babies.
Prof Sir Doug Turnbull, from Newcastle University, told me: “I think this is the only place in the world this could have happened, there’s been first class science to get us to where we are, there been legislation to allow it to move into clinical treatment, the NHS to help support it and now we’ve got eight children that seem to free of mitochondrial disease, what a wonderful result.”
Liz Curtis, the founder of the Lily Foundation charity said: “After years of waiting, we now know that eight babies have been born using this technique, all showing no signs of mito.
“For many affected families, it’s the first real hope of breaking the cycle of this inherited condition.”
[BBC]
Fast-breaking developments in US-Russia relations and US-Ukraine ties could very well be pointing to the wasting war in the Ukraine theatre currently approaching a dangerous tipping point. The US has reached the crucial decision to equip Ukraine with the necessary lethal arms to counter Russia’s ongoing missile and drone strikes on it and if implemented could mark a qualitatively new phase in the conflict between the West and Russia in Ukraine, which could have serious implications for regional and even world peace.
‘We want to make sure Ukraine can do what it wants to do, US President Donald Trump is quoted as saying following a recent meeting he had with NATO chief Mark Rutte in Washington, subsequent to indicating that the US will be sending ‘top of the line weapons’ to Ukraine through NATO countries. Such weaponry could include Patriot air defence systems which are generally seen as an effective answer in particular to Russia’s air strikes on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is on record that he had thanked the US President for his ‘willingness to support Ukraine and to continue working together to stop the killings and establish a lasting and just peace.’
Going ahead, the West would need to bear in mind that the supplying of exceptionally lethal arms to the Ukraine through its mediation could be seen by the Putin regime as hostile acts directed at the Russian state. That is, the West would be considered as involving itself physically in the ongoing hostilities between Russia and the Ukraine, necessitating the West, and more specifically NATO countries, to brace for Russian military strikes on them. Needless to say, such an eventuality would bode ill for international stability and peace.
Accordingly the West would need to assess very finely the consequences of its decisions on the Ukraine front. While the US President’s recent statements on these questions could be seen by some as mere rhetoric Trump is also on record as having indicated that his patience is wearing thin with Putin over the central issue of bringing peace to the Ukraine.
Inasmuch as Trump needs to trod gingerly going ahead so must Putin. In the event of full scale hostilities breaking out between the East and West in the Eastern European theatre no camp would stand to gain; this ought to be plain to the main antagonists, since they are evenly matched in terms of military capability. Even if the conflict in the Ukraine stagnates at a proxy stage, the costs for both sides would be staggering in human and material terms. Russia would need to recollect Afghanistan and the US would need to take itself back to the numerous proxy wars it fought in the then Third World.
However, although there are great uncertainties and perils for the world in the event of the current proxy war in the Ukraine degenerating into a more frontal East-West military confrontation in Europe, President Trump could be considered as holding the ‘Trump card’ to force a negotiated end to the present crisis.
This ‘Trump card’ takes the form of the economic strife which may descend upon the world in the event of the Trump administration going fully ahead with its ‘reciprocal tariff’ based trade wars with the majority of countries.
The US under President Trump may not be the most popular major power but it continues to be critical to the world’s current economic health. However much unpalatable it may be, the truth is that the economic vibrancy and prosperity of the US are key to many a country’s material survival. This is on account of the multiple economic linkages between the US and the rest of the world. The weaker the economy the greater is its dependence on the US and its largesse. For example, Sri Lanka knows this only too well.
The Trump administration is on record that it would be imposing what are described as ‘secondary tariffs’ on those countries whose economic operations are even indirectly benefiting Russia and if implemented could bring about crippling economic hardships for quite a few countries.
Major economic powers, China and India, are fully aware of these consequences. This is the reason why they would prefer not to undermine current economic arrangements between them and the US and between the latter and the rest of the world.
The above positions should not be misunderstood to mean that the rest of the world should be in a subservient relationship with the US. There is no question of the US exercising some sort of suzerainty over the rest of the world. This is not the case but in international relations the primacy of economics over politics may need to be recognized; economic realism needs be a cornerstone of foreign policy.
It would be quite some time before the BRICS grouping reaches the commanding heights of the world economy. Right now, it would be self-defeating, given the US’ continued economic power, for the South in particular to gloss over the might of the West and depend lopsidedly on the BRICS powers for its entire economic sustenance and survival. Indeed, a Non-aligned foreign policy remains best for the South.
It does not follow from the above considerations that the West could continue to turn a blind eye to the dangers posed to it and the world from the Ukraine conflict. Immense caution and foresight would need to go into its moves to arm Ukraine with its more sophisticated and exceptionally lethal weaponry. A cornered enemy in the battlefield, suffering overwhelming losses, cannot be expected to be continually discreet. With its patience relentlessly wearing thin it could unleash its Weapons of Mass Destruction, thus driving the world to the brink of destruction.
Accordingly, it is hoped that better counsel would prevail over all concerned and that differences would be resolved at the negotiating table. May be harsh economic realities would come to dictate terms and propel the quarters concerned to give cool rationality rather than the avarice born of self-aggrandizement a chance in their dealings with each other.
I’m sure the whole of Sri Lanka is eagerly looking forward to the arrival of Bollywood heartthrob Shah Rukh Khan, due in Colombo, next month, for the grand opening of the City of Dreams.
What makes Shah Rukh Khan standout is not only his acting prowess but also his looks.
At 59-plus, he looks absolutely great … or, let’s say, simply awesome.
Generally, people in their late fifties, or even in their mid-fifties, look frail, and some can’t even walk steadily.
So, what is Shah Rukh Khan’s secret to looking young, and, remember, he will be hitting 60 on 2nd November, 2025!
Yes, diet, is given top priority where Shah Rukh Khan is concerned.
While many of us need around four meals a day, Shah Rukh focuses on two main meals a day – lunch and dinner – and avoids snacking or elaborate dishes.
His meals often include sprouts, grilled chicken, broccoli, and sometimes dhal. And don’t we all love dhal!
While he enjoys sharing meals with others when he’s with family or travelling, even if it means indulging in richer dishes, like biryani or parathas, his core diet remains consistent, he says.
Wonder what would be his menu during his very short stay in Sri Lanka! Perhaps traditional Indian foods like tandoori chicken and mutton biriyani, roti, parathas, food cooked with ghee! He also likes the drink lassi, I’m told.
Perhaps, we should also ask him to check out some of our dishes, as well … a good rice and curry menu, with dhal!
It isn’t diet alone that has given Shah Rukh his young look but, he says, exercise, too, has played an important part, especially where his physique is concerned.
Young Shah Rukh Khan in the early ‘90s
Shah Rukh refers to his fitness journey during the pandemic, saying during the pandemic he decided to work hard on his body.
He focused on building a strong physique, and, by exercising consistently, he achieved a body he is proud of today.
Another factor responsible for his leaner, healthier body, and a sharper appearance, is that he has completely quit smoking
This major lifestyle change has also helped him maintain a leaner, healthier body, and a sharper appearance, he says.
Strangely, his sleep routine is totally different to what experts say. We are told that we need between seven and nine hours of sleep per night for optimal health.
Shah Rukh admits he has an unusual sleep schedule and this generally happens when he has a busy shooting schedule.
He usually goes to bed around 5.00 am and sleeps for about four–five hours. Even though it’s not ideal, he manages it around his busy shooting schedule.
In fact, Shah Rukh is a night person and usually loves working in the night. He also loves night shoots. He had said, “I usually head to bed around 5.00 am. On shooting days, I wake up by 9 or 10 in the morning. After coming back home late at night — sometimes around 2.00 am — I take a shower and get a workout in before I finally sleep.”
On the work front, he will be seen next in the movie ‘King’, due for a grand release in 2026.
Shah Rukh Khan continues to inspire millions with his commitment to fitness and I hope Sri Lankans will take a cue from this Bollywood heartthrob and maintain a leaner, healthier body.
President opens Wax Museum at the historic Ehelepola Walawwa in Kandy
Police SI’s who demanded free service at a SPA interdicted
Dozens dead, others missing in huge fire at hypermarket in Iraq’s Kut
Babies made using three people’s DNA are born free of hereditary disease
Indictments served on former Minister Keheliya Rambukwella and family
Deepti digs deep to deliver India’s four-wicket win
‘Dates have the highest sugar content to fight Coronavirus’
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