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The Virus, Vaccine and the Task Force

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by Rajan Philips

The doctors have been saying it daily. Vaccine alone is not enough to stem the spread of Covid-19, especially the Delta variant. Doctors have been calling for greater isolation, lockdown, and even a curfew. “An immediate curfew will prevent at least 1,200 additional deaths within the next 20 days,” Prof. Suneth Agampodi, Rajarata University, is reported to have predicted. This is based on a forecasting model he has developed with two Sri Lankan colleagues at Harvard and MIT. At the present death rate there could be 3,000 deaths in 20 days. The government seems to think otherwise, and apparently believes that rapid vaccination alone is enough to achieve national immunity and end the pandemic.

Lockdowns and curfew can be measures of last resort – that is the official government position. When is that going to be? Doctors seem to think it is already time for last resort. But – trust the vaccine, spurn the doctors – seems to be the governing motto. Quite apart from the fact that you need to trust your doctor before you trust the medication, the evidence of mounting infections, deaths and hospital admissions clearly gives credence to the worries and warnings of our doctors. Why distrust them now? Why not trust the doctors, even err on the side of caution, and stop pretending to be firm in spite of evidence?

The government’s strategy to rely solely on the vaccine would have worked any time last year, when Sri Lanka was a rather fortuitous beneficiary of low infections and even lower death rates. But there was no vaccine last year. There is no question, Sri Lanka’s current vaccine rollout is truly impressive in spite of initial hiccups and political cockups. Achieving 250,000 to 500,000 doses a day is indeed remarkable. But the fact of the matter is that even if Sri Lanka were to deliver one million shots a day, that will not be enough to overtake the virus spread, let alone stop it.

Vaccine and the Virus

At about 350,000 shots a day, it will take about two weeks to fully vaccinate 10% of the population. So, optimistically it will be end of the year or early next year before Sri Lanka can achieve maximum and effective vaccination. That is a long interval to expect to keep the virus down and keep the unvaccinated out of harm’s way.

While vaccines are for the weeks and months ahead, the spread of the virus has been gathering speed over days, weeks and months gone by. While it will be some time before all adults receive their first dose, there will be time lags between the first and second doses, and additional time periods before vaccine efficacy clicks in even after full vaccination. But the virus is not going to take a break during any or all of these time intervals.

The current surges in infections and deaths are believed to have started in May/June, nearly two months ago. Mid last week, the official death total was rising to 5,500, and the infections were rising to 345,000. Some Epidemiologists are fearing that the death total may climb to 20,000 by the end of the year with daily totals reaching as high as 300. The current trends are pointing in that direction.

For almost a week now daily death total has been exceeding 100, while daily infections have remained high between 2,500 to 3,000. These are the official figures. The actual figures are considered to be three to four or five times higher. On Thursday, doctors were complaining that hospital admissions were higher than the infection numbers put out by the Ministry of Health. There you go. So, regardless of the rate of vaccination, deaths and infections are going to keep increasing. And hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, leaving both Covid-19 patients and other patients who need hospital care to stay home and fend for themselves.

There is also the question of vaccine efficacy even for those who are vaccinated. There are six authorized vaccines (AstraZeneca, Sinopharm, Sputnik V, Pfizer, Sinovac and Moderna) in Sri Lanka, but mostly four of them have been used so far. Sinopharm from China is the most widely used vaccine followed by Oxford-AstraZeneca from India, Japan and the WHO. Sputnik V (Russia) has been used in limited quantities and the use of Pfizer (US and EU) started recently. A supply of Moderna is also expected from the US.

The different vaccines have different levels of efficacy – after the initial dose and the second dose. There are also differences when the same vaccine is used for both doses, and when two different vaccines are used. With the rise of the Delta variant (and the newest Columbian variant) – the concern is about the longevity of vaccine efficacy even after the two doses have been completed. All of the vaccines are known to have shown varying levels of success in minimizing the severity of illness, avoiding hospitalization, and virtually eliminating deaths due to Covid-19. But none of them are as successful in protecting the vaccinated from getting infected or from becoming sources of virus transmission.

As well, in the US, over 90% of current hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated, whereas in the UK as much as 30% of hospitalizations have been found to be among the fully vaccinated owing to the Delta variant. This is the background to the push for a third dose of vaccine in countries that have money to buy, and by vaccine manufacturers who want to keep selling to rich governments. Israel, Germany, France and lately the US have announced that a third dose of vaccine will be given to targeted groups among their citizens.

The WHO is opposed to this medical prodigality of the rich when only 1.2% of the people in low-income countries have received even a single dose. There is, however, a medical justification for a third dose for immuno-compromised people (e.g., those with transplants). Doctors in Canada have indicated that a third dose is not needed in Canada and that the Canadian government should give away its surplus vaccine supply to needier countries. There is also criticism that some of the vaccine-rich countries are holding on to their vaccines for too long and are then using the vaccine-poor countries as dumping ground for vaccines that are nearing their use-before dates.

Crucial Task Force Meeting

For Sri Lanka, it would be irresponsible to talk about a third dose. But political headline grabbers are already on to it, musing about third doses. The medical profession, on the other hand, is pleading in unison for stronger measures to ensure isolation and social distancing. That alone will deny the virus the human conduit it needs to spread and multiply. The Daily Mirror reported at the crack of dawn on Friday that “another crucial meeting” was to be held later that morning between “President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Presidential Task Force on Prevention of COVID-19 to decide if travel restrictions will be imposed over the weekend to combat the spread of the COVID-19 virus.” The breaking news came as I was writing this column, so I could not have the benefit of knowing what transpired at the meeting.

But the Army Commander and Head of the COVID-19 Task Force General Shavendra Silva gave a glimpse of what could be expected from the meeting. According to Gen. Silva, the meeting will have “the participation of ministers, Director General of Health Services and several other experts to discuss the current developments and further decisions to be taken related to the coronavirus pandemic in the country.”. He went on to opine, “though experts had made statements to media over a lockdown, not a single formal request had been made to the COVID-19 Task Force.” And he added, “however, the matter is likely to be noted at the meeting today.”

Perhaps the good General, reasonable man and logistics expert he is supposed to be, should ask himself – why is NOT every shade of medical expertise appropriate to Covid-19 included in the Task Force? Then these experts and their professional organizations will have no reason to run to the media and make statements. The General should also concurrently ask those who are supposed to be medical experts on his Task Force – what they have to say about the statements to the media calling for lockdowns and curfews, by medical experts who are not on the General’s Task Force? And the General will be doing everyone in the country a transparent favour by releasing the names of all the members of the COVID-19 Task Force and the specific expertise and skill, other than patriotism and presidential loyalty, that each one of them brings to the task force forum.

It is not my purpose to pick on the army, inadvertently or otherwise, unlike Ranil Wickremesinghe. After falsely ridiculing the SJB that it had set a world record in moving a No Confidence Motion against an individual Minister instead of the whole government, Mr. Wickremesinghe landed both his feet in his mouth by appearing to be critical of the Army while meaning to criticize the government for its handling of Covid-19. He had a point in highlighting the diminished roles of parliament and cabinet government, but Mr. Wickremesinghe was inarticulate in expressing it and unnecessarily implicated the army.

(By the way, there is nothing unprecedented about moving No Confidence Motions against Prime Ministers or individual ministers in Sri Lanka or elsewhere. Ranil Wickremasinghe himself was the target of an NCM in 2018 when he was Prime Minister. His own President supported the NCM because MS could not fire RW! More prominently before RW, and always unsuccessfully, NCMs were brought against Sirima Bandaranaike as Prime Minister, and against Felix Dias and GG Ponnambalam as Ministers, but decades apart).

There is nothing to blame the army about for what it has been doing on the Covid-19 front. The army would have done what it did without a Task Force. Not surprisingly the task forces have hurt the GR presidency more than they have helped it. Even as the task forces and advisory cabals have sidelined cabinet ministers and their administrative machineries, they have also isolated the President from the structure of government of which the President is the civilian head even as he is the commander in chief of the armed forces. This has led to an artificial situation where there is nothing meaningfully mediating between the President and the 6.9 million voters who voted for him in November 2019. Other than his frequent reminders that he polled 6.9 million votes and his (not anymore) monthly village visits, there is nothing that is keeping the President connected to his larger constituency.

The Task Forces were an unnecessary invention to sideline the cabinet of ministers and render irrelevant the parliament of Sri Lanka. If the Task Forces had worked even partially, the task force system would have been acclaimed as a presidential stroke of genius. But they were doomed to fail as indeed they have. Political societies did not labour over centuries to create institutions like parliament, cabinet, taxation, banks and systems of law and order, for the dubious genius of one individual or a family of individuals to simply jettison and replace with whatever contraptions that are found to be most convenient for wielding power. What may have come as a shock to some, however, is the level of incompetence associated with the otherwise predictable failures of the government’s unorthodox enterprises in the arenas of the state.



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How Black Civil Rights leaders strengthen democracy in the US

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Jesse Jackson / Barack Obama

On being elected US President in 2008, Barack Obama famously stated: ‘Change has come to America’. Considering the questions continuing to grow out of the status of minority rights in particular in the US, this declaration by the former US President could come to be seen as somewhat premature by some. However, there could be no doubt that the election of Barack Obama to the US presidency proved that democracy in the US is to a considerable degree inclusive and accommodating.

If this were not so, Barack Obama, an Afro-American politician, would never have been elected President of the US. Obama was exceptionally capable, charismatic and eloquent but these qualities alone could not have paved the way for his victory. On careful reflection it could be said that the solid groundwork laid by indefatigable Black Civil Rights activists in the US of the likes of Martin Luther King (Jnr) and Jesse Jackson, who passed away just recently, went a great distance to enable Obama to come to power and that too for two terms. Obama is on record as owning to the profound influence these Civil Rights leaders had on his career.

The fact is that these Civil Rights activists and Obama himself spoke to the hearts and minds of most Americans and convinced them of the need for democratic inclusion in the US. They, in other words, made a convincing case for Black rights. Above all, their struggles were largely peaceful.

Their reasoning resonated well with the thinking sections of the US who saw them as subscribers to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, for instance, which made a lucid case for mankind’s equal dignity. That is, ‘all human beings are equal in dignity.’

It may be recalled that Martin Luther King (Jnr.) famously declared: ‘I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up, live out the true meaning of its creed….We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.’

Jesse Jackson vied unsuccessfully to be a Democratic Party presidential candidate twice but his energetic campaigns helped to raise public awareness about the injustices and material hardships suffered by the black community in particular. Obama, we now know, worked hard at grass roots level in the run-up to his election. This experience proved invaluable in his efforts to sensitize the public to the harsh realities of the depressed sections of US society.

Cynics are bound to retort on reading the foregoing that all the good work done by the political personalities in question has come to nought in the US; currently administered by Republican hard line President Donald Trump. Needless to say, minority communities are now no longer welcome in the US and migrants are coming to be seen as virtual outcasts who need to be ‘shown the door’ . All this seems to be happening in so short a while since the Democrats were voted out of office at the last presidential election.

However, the last US presidential election was not free of controversy and the lesson is far too easily forgotten that democratic development is a process that needs to be persisted with. In a vital sense it is ‘a journey’ that encounters huge ups and downs. More so why it must be judiciously steered and in the absence of such foresighted managing the democratic process could very well run aground and this misfortune is overtaking the US to a notable extent.

The onus is on the Democratic Party and other sections supportive of democracy to halt the US’ steady slide into authoritarianism and white supremacist rule. They would need to demonstrate the foresight, dexterity and resourcefulness of the Black leaders in focus. In the absence of such dynamic political activism, the steady decline of the US as a major democracy cannot be prevented.

From the foregoing some important foreign policy issues crop-up for the global South in particular. The US’ prowess as the ‘world’s mightiest democracy’ could be called in question at present but none could doubt the flexibility of its governance system. The system’s inclusivity and accommodative nature remains and the possibility could not be ruled out of the system throwing up another leader of the stature of Barack Obama who could to a great extent rally the US public behind him in the direction of democratic development. In the event of the latter happening, the US could come to experience a democratic rejuvenation.

The latter possibilities need to be borne in mind by politicians of the South in particular. The latter have come to inherit a legacy of Non-alignment and this will stand them in good stead; particularly if their countries are bankrupt and helpless, as is Sri Lanka’s lot currently. They cannot afford to take sides rigorously in the foreign relations sphere but Non-alignment should not come to mean for them an unreserved alliance with the major powers of the South, such as China. Nor could they come under the dictates of Russia. For, both these major powers that have been deferentially treated by the South over the decades are essentially authoritarian in nature and a blind tie-up with them would not be in the best interests of the South, going forward.

However, while the South should not ruffle its ties with the big powers of the South it would need to ensure that its ties with the democracies of the West in particular remain intact in a flourishing condition. This is what Non-alignment, correctly understood, advises.

Accordingly, considering the US’ democratic resilience and its intrinsic strengths, the South would do well to be on cordial terms with the US as well. A Black presidency in the US has after all proved that the US is not predestined, so to speak, to be a country for only the jingoistic whites. It could genuinely be an all-inclusive, accommodative democracy and by virtue of these characteristics could be an inspiration for the South.

However, political leaders of the South would need to consider their development options very judiciously. The ‘neo-liberal’ ideology of the West need not necessarily be adopted but central planning and equity could be brought to the forefront of their talks with Western financial institutions. Dexterity in diplomacy would prove vital.

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Grown: Rich remnants from two countries

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Mirissa (Image courtesy Wikivoyage)

Whispers of Lanka

I was born in a hamlet on the western edge of a tiny teacup bay named Mirissa on the South Coast of Sri Lanka. My childhood was very happy and secure. I played with my cousins and friends on the dusty village roads. We had a few toys to play with, so we always improvised our own games. On rainy days, the village roads became small rivulets on which we sailed paper boats. We could walk from someone’s backyard to another, and there were no fences. We had the freedom to explore the surrounding hills, valleys, and streams.

I was good at school and often helped my classmates with their lessons. I passed the General Certificate of Education (Ordinary Level) at the village school and went to Colombo to study for the General Certificate of Education (Advanced Level). However, I did not like Colombo, and every weekend I hurried back to the village. I was not particularly interested in my studies and struggled in specific subjects. But my teachers knew that I was intelligent and encouraged me to study hard.

To my amazement, I passed the Advanced Level, entered the University of Kelaniya, completed an honours degree in Economics, taught for a few months at a central college, became a lecturer at the same university, and later joined the Department of Census and Statistics as a statistician. Then I went to the University of Wales in the UK to study for an MSc.

The interactions with other international students in my study group, along with very positive recommendations from my professors, helped me secure several jobs in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries, where I earned salaries unimaginable in Sri Lankan terms. During this period, without much thought, I entered a life focused on material possessions, social status, and excessive consumerism.

Life changes

Unfortunately, this comfortable, enjoyable life changed drastically in the mid-1980s because of the political activities of certain groups. Radicalised youths, brainwashed and empowered by the dynamics of vibrant leftist politics, killed political opponents as well as ordinary people who were reluctant to follow their orders. Their violent methods frightened a large section of Sri Lanka’s middle class into reluctantly accepting country-wide closures of schools, factories, businesses, and government offices.

My father’s generation felt a deep obligation to honour the sacrifices they had made to give us everything we had. There was a belief that you made it in life through your education, and that if you had to work hard, you did. Although I had never seriously considered emigration before, our sons’ education was paramount, and we left Sri Lanka.

Although there were regulations on what could be brought in, migrating to Sydney in the 1980s offered a more relaxed airport experience, with simpler security, a strong presence of airline staff, and a more formal atmosphere. As we were relocating permanently, a few weeks before our departure, we had organised a container to transport sentimental belongings from our home. Our flight baggage was minimal, which puzzled the customs officer, but he laughed when he saw another bulky item on a separate trolley. It was a large box containing a bookshelf purchased in Singapore. Upon discovering that a new migrant family was arriving in Australia with a 32-volume Encyclopaedia Britannica set weighing approximately 250 kilograms, he became cheerful, relaxed his jaw, and said, G’day!

Settling in Sydney

We settled in Epping, Sydney, and enrolled our sons in Epping Boys’ High School. Within one week of our arrival from Sri Lanka, we both found jobs: my wife in her usual accounting position in the private sector, and I was taken on by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). While working at the CAA, I sat the Australian Graduate Admission Test. I secured a graduate position with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in Canberra, ACT.

We bought a house in Florey, close to my office in Belconnen. The roads near the house were eerily quiet. Back in my hometown of Pelawatta, outside Colombo, my life had a distinct soundtrack. I woke up every morning to the radios blasting ‘pirith’ from the nearby houses; the music of the bread delivery van announcing its arrival, an old man was muttering wild curses to someone while setting up his thambili cart near the junction, free-ranging ‘pariah’ dogs were barking at every moving thing and shadows. Even the wildlife was noisy- black crows gathered on the branches of the mango tree in front of the house to perform a mournful dirge in the morning.

Our Australian neighbours gave us good advice and guidance, and we gradually settled in. If one of the complaints about Asians is that they “won’t join in or integrate to the same degree as Australians do,”  this did not apply to us! We never attempted to become Aussies; that was impossible because we didn’t have tanned skin, hazel eyes, or blonde hair, but we did join in the Australian way of life. Having a beer with my next-door neighbour on the weekend and a biannual get-together with the residents of the lane became a routine. Walking or cycling ten kilometres around the Ginninderra Lake with a fit-fanatic of a neighbour was a weekly ritual that I rarely skipped.

Almost every year, early in the New Year, we went to the South Coast. My family and two of our best friends shared a rented house near the beach for a week. There’s not much to do except mix with lots of families with kids, dogs on the beach, lazy days in the sun with a barbecue and a couple of beers in the evening, watching golden sunsets. When you think about Australian summer holidays, that’s all you really need, and that’s all we had!

Caught between two cultures

We tried to hold on to our national tradition of warm hospitality by organising weekend meals with our friends. Enticed by the promise of my wife’s home-cooked feast, our Sri Lankan friends would congregate at our place. Each family would also bring a special dish of food to share. Our house would be crammed with my friends, their spouses and children, the sound of laughter and loud chatter – English mingled with Sinhala – and the aroma of spicy food.

We loved the togetherness, the feeling of never being alone, and the deep sense of belonging within the community. That doesn’t mean I had no regrets in my Australian lifestyle, no matter how trivial they may have seemed. I would have seen migration to another country only as a change of abode and employment, and I would rarely have expected it to bring about far greater changes to my psychological role and identity. In Sri Lanka, I have grown to maturity within a society with rigid demarcation lines between academic, professional, and other groups.

Furthermore, the transplantation from a patriarchal society where family bonds were essential to a culture where individual pursuit of happiness tended to undermine traditional values was a difficult one for me. While I struggled with my changing role, my sons quickly adopted the behaviour and aspirations of their Australian peers. A significant part of our sons’ challenges lay in their being the first generation of Sri Lankan-Australians.

The uniqueness of the responsibilities they discovered while growing up in Australia, and with their parents coming from another country, required them to play a linguistic mediator role, and we, as parents, had to play the cultural mediator role. They were more gregarious and adaptive than we were, and consequently, there was an instant, unrestrained immersion in cultural diversity and plurality.

Technology

They became articulate spokesmen for young Australians growing up in a world where information technology and transactions have become faster, more advanced, and much more widespread. My work in the ABS for nearly twenty years has followed cycles, from data collection, processing, quality assurance, and analysis to mapping, research, and publishing. As the work was mainly computer-based and required assessing and interrogating large datasets, I often had to depend heavily on in-house software developers and mainframe programmers.  Over that time, I have worked in several areas of the ABS, making a valuable contribution and gaining a wide range of experience in national accounting.

I immensely valued the unbiased nature of my work, in which the ABS strived to inform its readers without the influence of public opinion or government decisions. It made me proud to work for an organisation that had a high regard for quality, accuracy, and confidentiality. I’m not exaggerating, but it is one of the world’s best statistical organisations! I rubbed shoulders with the greatest statistical minds. The value of this experience was that it enabled me to secure many assignments in Vanuatu, Fiji, East Timor, Saudi Arabia, and the Solomon Islands through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund after I left the ABS.

Living in Australia

Studying and living in Australia gave my sons ample opportunities to realise that their success depended not on acquiring material wealth but on building human capital. They discovered that it was the sum total of their skills embodied within them: education, intelligence, creativity, work experience and even the ability to play basketball and cricket competitively. They knew it was what they would be left with if someone stripped away all of their assets. So they did their best to pursue their careers on that path and achieve their life goals. Of course, the healthy Australian economy mattered too. As an economist said, “A strong economy did not transform a valet parking attendant into a professor. Investment in human capital did that.”

Nostalgia

After living in Australia for several decades, do I miss Sri Lanka? Which country deserves my preference, the one where I was born or the one to which I migrated? There is no single answer; it depends on opportunities, prospects, lifestyle, and family. Factors such as the cost of living, healthcare, climate, and culture also play significant roles in shaping this preference. Tradition in a slow-motion place like Sri Lanka is an ethical code based on honouring those who do things the same way you do, and dishonour those who don’t. However, in Australia, one has the freedom to express oneself, to debate openly, to hold unconventional views, to be more immune to peer pressure, and not to have one’s every action scrutinised and discussed.

For many years, I have navigated the challenges of cultural differences, conflicting values, and the constant negotiation of where I truly ‘belong.’ Instead of yearning for a ‘dream home’ where I once lived, I have struggled, and to some extent succeeded, to find a home where I live now. This does not mean I have forgotten or discarded my roots. As one Sri Lankan-Australian senior executive remarked, “I have not restricted myself to the box I came in… I was not the ethnicity, skin colour, or lack thereof, of the typical Australian… but that has been irrelevant to my ability to contribute to the things which are important to me and to the country adopted by me.”  Now, why do I live where I live – in that old house in Florey? I love the freshness of the air, away from the city smog, noisy traffic, and fumes. I enjoy walking in the evening along the tree-lined avenues and footpaths in my suburb, and occasionally I see a kangaroo hopping along the nature strip. I like the abundance of trees and birds singing at my back door. There are many species of birds in the area, but a common link with ours is the melodious warbling of resident magpies. My wife has been feeding them for several years, and we see the new fledglings every year.  At first light and in the evening, they walk up to the back door and sing for their meal. The magpie is an Australian icon, and I think its singing is one of the most melodious sounds in the suburban areas and even more so in the bush.

 by Siri Ipalawatte

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Big scene for models…

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Modelling has turned out to be a big scene here and now there are lots of opportunities for girls and boys to excel as models.

Of course, one can’t step onto the ramp without proper training, and training should be in the hands of those who are aware of what modelling is all about.

Rukmal Senanayake is very much in the news these days and his Model With Ruki – Model Academy & Agency – is responsible for bringing into the limelight, not only upcoming models but also contestants participating in beauty pageants, especially internationally.

On the 29th of January, this year, it was a vibrant scene at the Temple Trees Auditorium, in Colombo, when Rukmal introduced the Grey Goose Road To Future Model Hunt.

Tharaka Gurukanda … in
the scene with Rukmal

This is the second Model Hunt to be held in Sri Lanka; the first was in 2023, at Nelum Pokuna, where over 150 models were able to showcase their skills at one of the largest fashion ramps in Sri Lanka.

The concept was created by Rukmal Senanayake and co-founded by Tharaka Gurukanda.

Future Model Hunt, is the only Southeast Asian fashion show for upcoming models, and designers, to work along and create a career for their future.

The Grey Goose Road To Future Model Hunt, which showcased two segments, brought into the limelight several models, including students of Ruki’s Model Academy & Agency and those who are established as models.

An enthusiastic audience was kept spellbound by the happenings on the ramp.

Doing it differently

Four candidates were also crowned, at this prestigious event, and they will represent Sri Lanka at the respective international pageants.

Those who missed the Grey Goose Road To Future Model Hunt, held last month, can look forward to another exciting Future Model Hunt event, scheduled for the month of May, 2026, where, I’m told, over 150 models will walk the ramp, along with several designers.

It will be held at a prime location in Colombo with an audience count, expected to be over 2000.

Model With Ruki offers training for ramp modelling and beauty pageants and other professional modelling areas.

Their courses cover: Ramp walk techniques, Posture and grooming, Pose and expression, Runway etiquette, and Photo shoots and portfolio building,

They prepare models for local and international fashion events, shoots, and competitions and even send models abroad for various promotional events.

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