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The Sri Lanka organic experiment

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by Steven Novella

Cautionary tales are extremely useful, as long as we take the right lessons away from them. As the saying goes, the best way to learn is from mistakes, but even better is to learn from someone else’s mistake without having to commit it yourself (and suffer the consequences). Sri Lanka has now made itself into a cautionary tale, and I would like to amplify any learning that can come from it. The primary conceptual lesson here is that – when ideology trumps science, the outcome is likely to be very bad.

There is also a specific lesson here. Organic farming may sound good in principle (if you just listen to the ideological marketing), but in practice it is a disaster. Sri Lanka has decided to do what other countries have done before, namely impose from above a commandment on how to run an industry based entirely on the philosophical beliefs of the leader. Perhaps the most famous example of this is Lysenkoism in the former Soviet Union, where the archaic ideas of geneticist Trofim Lysenko were given official support and decimated Soviet agriculture, costing millions of lives.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka has done something similar – banning agrichemicals in Sri Lanka and forcing all farmers to farm organically. The result was absolutely predictable, a crash in agricultural output. While Sri Lanka is a net food importer, they still are dependent on local rice and other staple crop productions. Their exports are also mainly agricultural, such as tea, rubber, and many spices. Some reporting has focused on the timing of the change, during a fragile recovery from a pandemic. Also some have pointed out that going suddenly full organic is a problem because most farmers don’t know how to do it, and there was no adjustment period.

But even if the change was handled optimally, there was still the unavoidable negative impacts inherent to organic farming. The European Union, for example, has already done an analysis and found that organic farming is not sustainable, and it is worse for the environment, mainly through increased land use. Organic food is also not healthier than conventional produce, as if often implied by proponents. Why, then, would Sri Lanka go full in on such a bad idea?

The answer is that organic marketing has worked. They have created a false impression about their brand, based on bad ideas and bad science, but it sounds superficially appealing and many people buy into it. Organic farming is based on the appeal to nature fallacy, that something which is “natural” (which is arbitrarily defined) is inherently better than anything “artificial”. Worse still, the origins of organic farming is pure magical pseudoscience, not even appeal to nature, but appeal to magic. Unfortunately for Sri Lanka, their president has bought into the hype and marketing, and further still has the power to unilaterally impose their beliefs onto an entire industry.

As a result, across all crops, Sri Lanka farmers have had a 19-25% drop in their productivity on average (not evenly distributed, with some crops having a 50% drop or even complete failure). That figure is in line with previous research, showing similar levels of reduced productivity from organic farming. This is a disaster for the industry, and also the people, leading to food shortages and spikes in prices. Because exports are also hit hard, this is another strain on the overall economy.

The limitations inherent to organic farming are also exacerbated by trying to massively increase the scale. Right now organic farming accounts for about 1.5% of worldwide food production. It is only 0.6% in the US, and 8.5% in the EU where it is very popular. As you try to scale up industries, new problems are introduced, which is why we cannot just extrapolate from low levels of market penetration to very high levels. (The same issue arises when we talk about increasing renewable energy sources into the electricity supply, with the intermittency becoming a greater and greater problem.)

For organic farming one major issue with scaling up is the availability of organic fertilizer. When you are talking about one farm, you don’t necessarily have to consider the entire system at the scale of a nation or the world. But when you decide to make an entire country 100% organic, you do. Organic farming is possible at the 1-10% range because of the availability of organic fertilizer, which comes from composting and cattle manure. These are two ways of recycling nitrogen, but of course this recycling is not perfect, so we need to introduce nitrogen into the system. Some plants can fix nitrogen from the air (through soil bacteria) and these can be used as crops to put nitrogen into the soil. All this works if the percentage of crops grown without external inputs of nitrogen is kept relatively small. The system breaks down as you try to scale up.

Sri Lanka discovered this at the national level. They don’t have enough organic fertilizer to go around. They make about two to three tonnes of compost per year, but rice cultivation alone requires four million tonnes. They could try to import manure or compost from other countries, but the supply of organic fertilizer is largely already spoken for. A significant increase in demand will not necessarily be met by an increase in supply, and prices will therefore go up. Now imagine trying to do this on a larger scale. The world has no place to import organic fertilizer from. The system does not work without external inputs.

Organic farming is bad for the environment because is requires greater land use. It is also more expensive because it requires greater labor as well (you have to pull all those weeds if you can’t use herbicide). Further still, organic farming does allow for the use of pesticides, but they have to be “natural”. All of the pesticides they use find use also on conventional farms, but organic farming relies on a subset deemed “natural”. This does not mean less toxic. Further, they don’t always use the optimal pesticide for each situation, because they are artificially limiting their choices – following loose ideology rather than evidence.

The bottom line is that there is no real advantage to organic farming, and there are serious drawbacks. The negatives get exponentially worse if we try to scale up organic farming. Right now organic produce is a “boutique” option for the well-off. Trying to feed the world organically would be a disaster – Sri Lanka on a worldwide scale, but even worse.



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NPP govt. and its take on foreign relations

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by Neville Ladduwahetty

Following President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s visit, first to India and then to China, Foreign Policy analysts and Commentators of repute have cautioned the NPP government the need to exercise BALANCE particularly in respect of its relations with India and China. The question is how balancing could be the guiding policy in Sri Lanka’s relations with India and China, when balancing is only a strategy? For instance, is the prospect of a 200,000 barrels a day refinery by China in Hambantota to be balanced by a prospective refinery by India in Trincomalee even if it is not in Sri Lanka’s best interests? Is this what some commentators call “pragmatic balancing”?

Sri Lanka’s policy regarding relations with other countries is stated at times as Non-Aligned and neutral at other times depending on the occasion and the forum. In the Joint Statement with China, the Policy is Non-Aligned. During a press conference, Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath made comments that undoubtedly amounted to “reaffirmation of Neutrality” according to a report in the Daily FT (Oct. 9, 2024). Such inconsistencies are not in the best interest of relations with India or China or with any other country. It is therefore imperative that the NPP government adopts a Policy and conducts its affairs in a manner that abides by the stated Policy if its credibility is to be respected

OBJECTIVES to PRECEEDE POLICY

However, whatever policy the NPP government adopts, what needs to be understood is the fundamental premise that prior to developing a Policy there has to be a clear and unambiguous Objective. For instance, the Foreign policy of India is often expressed as “Neighbourhood First”, and Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR). Such a policy would entitle India to realise its objective of being accepted as a Regional Power in South Asia and therefore recognised as a global power where its currency is internationally recognised, a place in the UN Security Council, etc., and other symbols of a global power. On the other hand, China’s objective is to become first among equals among global powers. The Policy to achieve such an objective is its Belt and Road Initiative.

Similarly, the US Declaration of Independence sets out its objective as being: “We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights governments are instituted among men ….”

It is therefore clear that the Objective of a Nation is a declaration of the goals the Peoples of a Nation craft for themselves. Therefore, Sri Lanka has to define unambiguously its Objectives. To state that Sri Lanka’s Objective should be based on Self-Interests is to state the obvious because Self-Interest is what drives Foreign Relations. Foreign Policy of a Nation is how it conducts itself in its relations with other Nations in the process of pursuing its Objectives. For instance, the Objective of the NPP Government is to create “A thriving Nation and a beautiful life”. Thus, having declared its Objective, the NPP government has to decide whether a Foreign Policy of Non-Alignment, Neutrality or any other would enable it to realise its stated Objective of a thriving Nation and a beautiful life.

On the other hand, balancing is not an objective nor is it a policy. It is only a Strategy that could be resorted to within the context of Non-Aligned or Neutral Policies. Thus, its application is limited in scope to specific countries such as India and China and to infrastructure projects as part of Balancing interests of geopolitical rivals at a cost to Sri Lanka’s national interests.

NON-ALIGNMENT v. NEUTRALITY in PRACTICE

From a security perspective, non-alignment does not guarantee territorial inviolability. On the other hand, a neutral state is protected by international law. Therefore, neutrality offers greater guarantees in respect of territorial inviolability. Furthermore, since Neutrality defines duties and responsibilities of a Neutral State, other Nations are forewarned of what to expect from Sri Lanka – in short there are no surprises nor is there a need to go out of its way to ensure the security of India or any other State. This fosters trust and credibility among nations. However, if any country decides to violate Sri Lanka’s territory for whatever reason, as it was when India violated Sri Lanka’s air space, Sri Lanka has to accept the fact that no one would be coming to its defence other than the protection of International Law.

The real test between Non-Alignment and neutrality is when it comes to infrastructure projects. Furthermore, under a Policy of Non-Alignment, infrastructure projects invariably become part of balancing and therefore end up with unsolicited proposals, as in the past. Attempts to balance the refinery in Hambantota by China that was reported to have been based on expressions of interest called for by Sri Lanka, with a possible Refinery in Trincomalee for India would be unsolicited and to different standards. A variation to the theme of unsolicited projects is to tempt Sri Lanka by funding projects that serve the interests of the funding agency and not that of Sri Lanka.

On the other hand, a policy of neutrality requires that strict and open procedures are followed in order to ensure that all are treated as equals. This makes it imperative for Sri Lanka to first define the scale and scope of the project and call for Expressions of Interest (EOI) from parties for evaluation in a transparent and open manner. Thus, practices that require a Neutral State to adopt fosters Credibility and Trust in the eyes of other Nations; characteristics critically needed to create a Thriving Sri Lanka. These characteristics together with reliance on International Law become the combined armory of a Neutral State such as Sri Lanka that is relatively small, but strategically located for aspiring Global Powers to go out of their way to foster abiding relations.

CONCLUSION

The foreign policy options explored and commented on by analysts, think tanks and during panel discussions are; Non-Alignment, Neutrality, Balancing and Self- Interest, etc., not realising that some proposed Policies, such as Balancing, are not Policies but Strategies. These explorations fail to define the objective that determines which policy to adopt as in the case of India, China and the USA cited above. Additionally, the context in which the Policy works, becomes a factor that shapes and Influences Policy. In the particular context of Sri Lanka, its strategic location that is akin to a key stone in the arch of Indian Ocean Rim countries in the geopolitical equation has molded Sri Lanka as a Nation State over Millennia to an extent that its geographical size has become a secondary factor.

In such a context, its security, and the goal set by the NPP government of a “Thriving Nation and a beautiful life” is best served by international law and the Soft Power of a neutral state that requires it to conduct its International Relations in an open and Transparent manner that ensures equality among Nations in a manner that fosters Trust and Credibility. The dividends from such an approach would foster a “Thriving Nation”.

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Appropriate scaled-down celebration; probable statesman; misinterpretation

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Independence Day parade

This year the scaled-down Independence Day celebrations were just right. There was pageantry but no pomp. We must celebrate Independence Day and fortunately it was done. Every item was commendable: the mixed in race and gender choirs rendering so well the National Anthem, the Jayamangala Gatha and chant of blessing, directed at the President. Cass’ thought that after a long time he really deserved these chants of blessing, and good fortune for the country too. The National Anthem was sung in Tamil too by students. The President’s address was excellent in substance and delivery. The cultural event was superb. The best was that no armed vehicles drove past.

Statesman

A niece sent Cassandra a video clip of Prez AKD being mobbed – joyfully, admiringly, affectionately – on a recent visit to Velvataturai. He just got into the crowd, shook hands, patted little ones and posed for innumerable selfies, all smilingly with not a trace of self-promotion. He was just one of them. To have Tamils, Muslims, Catholic priests and nuns, Hindu dignitaries greeting him gladly brought tears to Cass’ eyes – tears of joy and the fact of reconciliation being evidently shown by the Tamil people. Accompanying the video Cass’ niece wrote: “Never in my wildest dreams would I have ever thought a Sinhala leader would be made so welcome in the North. They seemed to love him. He definitely has qualities of a leader.” And then she adds: “But I seriously fear for his safety, the way he is running around.” Agreed but not with crowds in the North, now that the suicide bombers are no more (or so we hope).

Judging the President and his manner of presenting himself (behaviour for short) locally and overseas in India and China within one hundred and something days of becoming Prez of the country, Cassandra declares she at last sees a potential statesman in him.

The only statesman we have had so far – D S Senanayake was a person of the people by his actions, notwithstanding his exclusive ancestry. He came from a land and plumbago mine owning, well to do family, but felt sincerely for the common people and hence his foremost policy being agriculture, since food is one of the three requirements for basic life. Air is free, and unpolluted then; water is/was plentiful through rain or containment in wewas, the largest of which he got constructed in Gal Oya, Ampara. DS seemed happiest when surrounded by villagers.

AKD was born to a simple family – but of integrity and worth – and thus he remains honest, simple, sincere, with very high ideals and love for Sri Lanka and its people, determined to do well by them. His head has definitely not been turned or swollen by the obvious adulation shown by our people and the VVIP welcome received in the two countries that dominate the world now. That is almost a humanely impossible achievement but he has succeeded in keeping his head while most other leaders before him lost theirs. That was principally because leaders of the past, starting from SWRD, had themselves and their political success in mind, later added to by greed of enrichment.

These qualities so far are missing in AKD and thus Cassandra’s prophecy – he will reach statesmanship because he has the qualities inherent in him and he gives the promise of not changing to be self-gratifying through imbibing greed for riches, greed for continued power, greed for the strength it gives a person to grab material wealth for himself and his family and cohorts.

Revenge

MTV 1 on Saturday February 1, carried the news of MP Rohitha Abeygunawardena visiting Mahinda Rajapaksa in his government-paid-for palatial home in Colombo 7 just to see to his well-being, as the MP said.

Now, the gist of what Rohitha A said, seated in his luxury car as he drove out of the ex Prez’s premises; “It is very wrong of the government to ask this great man to vacate the state-owned residence. Then he made this typical below par, oft used political accusation that government leaders were taking revenge on Ex Prez Mahinda R. Revenge for what act of the Ex Prez’s, pray? Cassandra cannot bear to hear the two words ‘jealousy’ and ‘revenge’. These two accusations are often made on political platforms by defeated leaders and lesser politicians.

Considering the case of ex-presidents being asked to vacate the huge houses bequeathed them by previous governments, started by JRJ, is a travesty of justice. Many of the past Prez’s contributed by the policies they followed and personal acts to the downfall of the country. A second reason: why should they live in absolute comfort and luxury, guarded by hordes of security personnel, when a large proportion of the population of the country have no decent housing nor adequate food to eat. In MR’s case particularly, he has many mansions in his name and his sons’ names. How about that Malvana grand house that finally had no owner?

Yes, what Rohitha A threatened could easily happen. Give a gang of ne’er-do-wells a large tot of kasippu, a bath packet and a monetary inducement and they will rise up with deadly rampaging anger anywhere and against anyone. Did we not see this happen against the Aragalaya protesters and rampage of Gotagogama on May 9, 2022, by an inebriated but ferocious horde that poured out of Temple Trees when Mahinda R was PM and in residence in this house?

A ray of sunshine

Along with a daily presentation of how money was wantonly wasted by previous governments in starting expensive projects in different parts of the country and then abandoning them, named What happened to the Village, MTV Channel One in its news presentation includes feel good happenings in the country named Happy Headlines. It’s so good to view a happy happening, a successful person, sports event, occurrence in nature within the daily dose of dismal news. It is a merciful occurrence for which the present government is thanked that news is no longer so dismal and we in Sri Lanka are fortunate to be living in a reviving country unlike Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, even Pakistan and the US of America which has a daily new edict proclaimed by President Trump, which sends shivers down American backs unless they are the white Supremacists who believe this proven to be dishonest businessman is set to Make America Great Again.

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Mangroves in Sri Lanka : Guardians of the Coast Facing Uncertain Future

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Vulnerable Mangrove Palm Nypa Fruticans

By Ifham Nizam

Mangroves, often referred to as the “rainforests of the sea,” play a crucial role in maintaining coastal ecosystems. These salt-tolerant trees and shrubs thrive in the intertidal zones of tropical and subtropical regions, forming a unique and highly productive ecosystem.

In Sri Lanka, mangroves contribute significantly to biodiversity, fisheries, coastal protection, and climate resilience. However, despite their immense ecological and economic value, these forests are under severe threat due to human activities and climate change.

“Mangroves are among the most productive and valuable ecosystems on the planet. They not only support marine biodiversity but also act as a natural buffer against coastal erosion and extreme weather events,”

says Dr. Nilanthi Rajapakse, a scientist on Plant Taxonomy.

As the world observed World Wetlands Day on February 2, 2025, Sri Lanka faces a critical moment in its efforts to protect and restore these vital ecosystems.

The Importance of Mangroves in Sri Lanka

Mangroves provide a wide range of ecological, economic, and social benefits. Sri Lanka is home to more than 20 species of mangroves, which are mainly found along the western, southern, and eastern coastlines. Notable mangrove-rich areas include the Puttalam Lagoon, Maadu Ganga Estuary, Negombo, Batticaloa, Mannar, Trincomalee, and Jaffna.

Wetlands: biodiversity

Biodiversity Hotspots

Mangrove forests support an array of wildlife, including fish, crustaceans, mollusks, birds, reptiles, and marine mammals. Their dense root systems create breeding and nursery grounds for many commercially valuable fish species.

“Without mangroves, Sri Lanka’s fisheries industry would be severely impacted. These ecosystems serve as nurseries for juvenile fish, ensuring a steady supply for local fishermen,”

explains Wildlife Guard, Nuwan Jayawardena.

Mangroves also provide habitat for endangered and migratory birds, as well as reptiles like saltwater crocodiles and various marine mammals. Some species, such as Avicennia marina (Grey Mangrove) and Rhizophora mucronata (Red Mangrove), have unique adaptations like pneumatophores (aerial roots) and salt glands to survive in extreme coastal environments.

Coastal Protection and Climate Resilience

One of the most critical roles of mangroves is coastal defense. Their extensive root systems stabilize shorelines, preventing erosion and reducing the impact of tsunamis and storm surges.

“During the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, coastal areas with dense mangrove cover suffered less damage compared to those without. This underscores their importance as natural barriers,”

says Dr. Rajapakse.

Additionally, mangroves are powerful carbon sinks, absorbing and storing large amounts of carbon dioxide. Studies show that mangrove forests store up to four times more carbon per hectare than tropical rainforests, making them crucial in the fight against climate change.

The Wetland Newsletter of the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC) was first published in 2012 to share valuable information about wetlands. It is released twice a year and distributed among school children, undergraduates, government officials, naturalists, and wildlife enthusiasts. The advisory committee consists of M.G.C. Sooriyabandara, Director General of the DWC; Ranjan Marasinghe, Director (Operations) and Manjula Amararatne, Director (Protected Area Management) and edited by Dr. Nilanthi Rajapakse. The first volume of each year is launched on February 2nd in celebration of World Wetlands Day, while the second volume is released on October 1st to commemorate the founding anniversary of the DWC. This year, the official launch took place on Monday at the Ministry of Environment Auditorium during the national ceremony, where it was presented to the Chief Guest, Dr. Dhammika Patabendi, Minister of Environment. The event was also graced by Anton Jayakodi, Deputy Minister of Environment; Rohitha Uduwawala, Secretary of the Ministry of Environment; M.G.C. Sooriyabandara, Director General of the DWC; and Tilak Hevawasam, Chairman of the Central Environmental Authority.

Threats to Mangrove Ecosystems

Despite their significance, Sri Lanka’s mangroves are facing an existential crisis due to:

Human Activities

· Deforestation: Mangrove forests are being cleared for shrimp farming, agriculture, and urban expansion. The destruction of mangroves for economic gain often leads to long-term environmental and economic losses.

· Pollution

: Industrial waste, agricultural runoff, and plastic pollution degrade mangrove habitats, affecting water quality and marine life.

· Unregulated Development

: Coastal infrastructure projects, such as hotels and resorts, encroach on mangrove areas, disrupting their delicate balance.

Climate Change

· Rising sea levels threaten the very existence of mangroves by increasing salinity levels beyond their tolerance.

Stronger storms and extreme weather events

lead to physical damage and habitat loss.

· Temperature fluctuations

affect the reproductive cycles and growth of mangrove species.

“If we do not act now, Sri Lanka could lose a significant portion of its mangrove forests within the next few decades,”

warns Dr. Rajapakse.

Conservation Efforts and Restoration Projects

Government and International Initiatives

Sri Lanka has taken several steps to protect and restore mangroves. The country is a signatory to the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, which emphasises the conservation of wetland ecosystems.

The establishment of protected areas and national parks has helped safeguard some mangrove habitats.

However, enforcement of environmental laws remains a challenge. Conservationists argue that stronger policies, stricter regulations, and better coordination between government agencies are necessary to curb illegal activities.

Community-Based Conservation

Engaging local communities in mangrove conservation has proven to be one of the most effective strategies. Several NGOs and local organisations are working to:

· Educate coastal communities about the importance of mangroves.

· Promote sustainable fishing and aquaculture practices.

· Conduct mangrove restoration projects, where degraded areas are replanted with native mangrove species.

“When local communities understand that their livelihoods depend on healthy mangroves, they become active participants in conservation efforts,”

explains Dr. Rajapakse.

Successful Restoration Projects

Several mangrove restoration projects have yielded positive results. In some areas, mangrove saplings have been replanted in degraded zones, leading to the regeneration of native species. International organisations have also collaborated with Sri Lankan researchers to monitor mangrove health and develop strategies for long-term sustainability.

The Road Ahead: A Call to Action

While progress has been made, conservationists emphasise that more action is needed to protect Sri Lanka’s mangroves. The following key steps are crucial for ensuring the long-term survival of these ecosystems:

Strengthening Environmental Laws

– Enforcing stricter regulations against illegal deforestation and pollution.

Expanding Protected Areas

– Designating more mangrove forests as protected zones.

Promoting Eco-Tourism

– Developing sustainable tourism models that benefit both conservation and local communities.

Investing in Research

– Supporting scientific studies to better understand the impact of climate change on mangroves.

Empowering Coastal Communities

– Providing training and financial incentives for sustainable livelihoods.

“Protecting mangroves is not just an environmental issue—it’s an economic and social necessity,”

says Dr. Rajapakse

Sri Lanka’s mangroves are priceless assets, offering countless benefits to people and nature alike. Yet, without urgent and sustained conservation efforts, these ecosystems could disappear, leaving coastal communities vulnerable and biodiversity at risk.

As the world celebrated World Wetlands Day 2025, the call for immediate action has never been clearer. Governments, conservationists, and local communities must work together to protect and restore Sri Lanka’s mangrove forests. The choices made today will determine whether these vital ecosystems thrive or vanish in the years to come.

Mangroves are not just trees—they are lifelines.

Preserving them is essential for a sustainable and resilient future for Sri Lanka and the planet.

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