Features

The Mahaweli

Published

3 years ago

2021/09/5

by Chanaka Wickramasuriya

“Mahaweli mahaweli mahaweli”….. Virtuoso pandit Amaradeva’s classic resonates out there as the author traces this river; geographically, along the topographical contours of this varied land, and historically, along its intricate relationship with this island’s both ancient and contemporary civilizations.

The Mahaweli, or literally ‘the great sands’, is not just a river. And it is not just the island’s longest river (at 335km), or the one with the largest river basin (10,500 of the island’s total 65,000 sq km). The Mahaweli has a natural uniqueness to it that has resulted in a profound bearing on the formation and evolution of our cultural and political heritage. It will not be presumptuous to say that this river, analogous to its meandering trace, has carved the path for the history of this island’s peoples. Or even perhaps, been responsible for the sheer existence of a history itself. Amaradeva poetically alludes to this in his classical ballad.

One can say that the Mahaweli traces its headwaters to the Kotmale Oya and Hatton Oya. The former, having its source along the north western slopes of the Horton Plains plateau, while the latter traces its beginnings along the Watawala ridge. The significance of this will not be lost to even the amateur hydrologist. An overlay of the rainfall patters of Sri Lanka on her map shows that the country’s highest annual average rainfall takes place along this range, and notably, on account of it being fed by the more prolific South West Monsoon, at almost twice the precipitation of its North East counterpart.

This makes for a remarkable fact. The Mahaweli becomes, as far as this author can ascertain, the only Dry Zone river to be fed by the South West Monsoonal rains.

Having harnessed and coalesced these waters, the Mahaweli carves an idyllic path northward along the Gampola valley. The splendor of this valley discernible to even this author, as he once sat at a hermitage on the hills of Hindagala watching this river, dotted on either side by quaint hamlets and rice fields, the vestiges of an ancient kingdom that found refuge during trying times. And alas only to be told by his mentors that he was negating the benefits of his vipassana endeavors by pleasing his senses!

The river thus meanders its way up to Gannoruwa. And here, the providence of nature, or the hands of the formative deities of this land, depending on your preference, make a call. The river encounters a small hillock at Gannoruwa, and perhaps because of it, and unlike like all rivers originating on the western slopes that carve their way down toward the western seaboard, the Mahaweli makes an abrupt right turn.

At some point in pre-history these waters would have then encountered a formidable bridge of Charnockite rock in the escarpment between the central plateau and the southern edge of the Knuckles massif. Eons of hydrological erosion then forced these waters through the gorges of Randenigala and the breathtakingly narrow Rantambe, churning out what would have then been class four and five rapids. Legend has it that the master equestrian King Rajasinghe II would leap across the narrow 20-foot gap on his trusty steed, and that until more recently when the dams of the Mahaweli Development Program took shape, the sounds of these churning waters could have been heard over five km away. Like a giant hydrological serpent, the river breaks through this East-West divide to rear its head onto the eastern half of the island. And here too the seemingly inexplicable takes place.

Having garnered further waters from the Knuckles via the Hulu Ganga, from Pidurutalagala via the Ma Oya, from Horton Plains via the Uma Oya and from even as far as the Badulla and Passara hills via the Badulu Oya and Loggal Oya, instead of finding what would look to the layman as a path of least resistance directly toward the eastern seaboard, the Mahaweli decides to turn north.

The river then traverses this almost directly northern path, covering about half of its total distance, and a third of the island, to break into the ocean via a myriad of mangrove forested deltas at the island’s largest bay at Koddiyar in Trincomalee. Here too merging into yet another natural wonder of what is one of the world’s largest natural harbors, replete with underwater chasms and gorges of over 700m deep. But not until the river has harnessed even greater waters along the way through its largest tributary, the Amban Ganga, it too a creation of the western slopes of the Knuckles range, and the less plentiful Hasalaka Oya and Heen Ganga, which gather waters off the range’s eastern slopes. In this section the Mahaweli creates what is the country’s largest deposits of alluvial soil, spanning the entirety of its northern trajectory and breaking into vast areas of up to 10km wide on account of seasonal flood plains, as well as the largest seasonal sand banks from which the river derived its name.

Thus, it is as if nature was the precursor to our island’s proud hydrological engineering heritage, and even its modern manifestation of the Mahaweli Development Program. For nature seems to have decided long ago to find a way to harness the bounty of water from the island’s salubrious western slopes and nourish its dry north-central and eastern plains. A feat of engineering even modern man would have found hard to, and is yet to, replicate.

But the story of the Mahaweli does not end there. Mankind soon pounces upon this natural marvel to both exploit and tinker with her resources for their benefit. It is akin to having been endowed with a mythical nature’s guitar, and then fine tuning its cords to seek the perfect tune. The resulting dance having spanned over two millennia yet continues. While this story could be arguably best narrated through time, this author will choose to deliver it, like the river itself, along the course of its journey.

The story begins in the upper reaches of the Kotmale Oya, the Agra Oya. Here, literally and metaphorically shrouded in the mists of the Thotupola hill and time, a little south of Pattipola, are the remnants of a little known 220m long tunnel and 11km long canal. Believed to have been constructed circa the 13-14th century, it is perhaps the earliest known subterranean trans basin canal. Considered an engineering marvel for its time, this canal used to divert the west bound waters east into the Uma Oya basin to irrigate the lush fields of the Uva.

Moving down the Kotmale Oya, further nourished by the Nanu Oya is the Upper Kotmale Reservoir and Hydro Power scheme. The third largest power generator of the Mahaweli Development Scheme originally conceived between 1965-69 under and FAO/UNDP funded master plan, this was one of the last to be completed in 2010 after a series of environmental controversies and re-engineering. The river is then joined by the waters of the Devon Oya, Pundal Oya and Ramboda Oya and flows into the famed and beautiful valley of Kotmale, once the sanctuary of the legendary King Dutugemunu during his youth. This valley was inundated by a rock-filled dam 87m high and 600m in length starting in 1978 under the Accelerated Mahaveli Development Program, becoming the second highest hydro electricity generator of the scheme. Its added function being controlling the flood waters of the Gampola valley and optimizing the diversion flow at the barrage at Polgolla.

As the Mahaweli, now as a fully-fledged river or ganga, meanders its way around the upper middle-class suburbs of Kandy, evoking visions of our checkered history with names like Primrose Gardens, Anniewatte and Mawilmada, we encounter the Polgolla Barrage. Polgolla was the first of the projects under the Mahaweli Development Program and was implemented in 1976. At 144m in length and 14.6m in height, a relatively innocuous looking structure compared to its gargantuan brethren, the Polgolla Barrage nevertheless, in this authors view, creates the most geographically impactful diversion of Mahaweli waters.

It starts with an eight km long underground penstock northward to Ukuwele power station. Ukuwele then releases these spent waters into the Dhun Oya, which in turn connects to the Sudu Ganga which then emerges further north as the Bowatenna Reservoir. Built in 1981, the picturesque Bowatenna’s primary purpose was retention and diversion of waters for irrigation. In a bizarre twist of engineering and geographical fate, the released waters of Bowatenna become the Amban Ganga, making the Mahaweli the only river to feed its own tributary.

Waters diverted from Bowatenna are channeled through a tunnel to Lenodara, and from there enter the Dambulu Oya. It is from here that modern man’s diversions of the Mahaweli start to enter the realm of the ancient kings, and their stupendous feats of hydrological engineering and civilization building.

The Dambulu Oya has a little known but unique history, as it is a conduit of Mahaweli waters from two separate modern and ancient diversions. The ancient system starting from Demada Oya, a tributary of the Amban where an anicut built by Dhatusena diverted waters to the Wilimiti Oya, a tributary of the Dambulu. The Dambulu Oya thus takes Mahaweli/Amban waters from both Dhatusena’s creation as well as the modern Bowatenna, via the Ibbankatuwa Tank, north into the gigantic Kala Wewa – Balalu wewa complex and the Kala oya basin. Dhatusena’s “only treasure” as he proclaimed, for which he earned his patricidal son Kassapa’s wrath, Kala Wewa is the largest tank complex of ancient Sri Lanka and was built in the fifth Century AD. Waters from the Kala Wewa are transferred via the famous Jaya Ganga, carved also during the same time with the intricate engineering precision of a gradient of one foot to one mile, 86km to Devanampiyatissa’s third Century BC Tissa Wewa in the ancient citadel of Anuradhapura. Waters also find their way to the more modern Rajanganaya further west via the Kala Oya itself. The excess waters of the Tissa wewa find their way into the Malwatu Oya, the islands second longest river, and off that via the Yoda Ela into the famed Giant’s Tank over 50km north west of Anuradhapura, it too a creation of the legendary Dhatusena, to irrigate the famous Rice Bowl of Mannar.

A bifurcation at Dambulu Oya built in 1976 also takes Mahaweli waters into the ancient and touristically popular Kandalama tank, the origin of which is little known, as well as to the Hurulu Wewa a further 25 km north. Built by Mahasen in the first Century AD, the Hurulu is the primary repository source of Sri Lanka’s fifth longest river, the Yan Oya, where a new reservoir was constructed in 2017 about 50km further north east. Sporting what is Sri Lanka’s longest main and saddle dams totaling a staggering six km in length, the Yan Oya project infuses water into the ancient Padaviya Tank. Originally built to trap the waters of the Ma Oya, the actual origins of this very ancient tank are yet debated but speculated to having been built by Saddhatissa (137-119 BC). 165km from its original diversion at Polgolla, this will be the furthest point north yet traversed by the Mahaweli’s waters.

But Bowatenne is not done yet in her generous dispersions of Mahaweli’s bounty. Rather coincidentally and poignantly perhaps, situated at what is considered the center of the island, the reservoir stands where the iconic Nalanda Gedige temple stood. Since relocated to the banks of the lake, this temple represents a unique fusion of Hindu and Mahayana Buddhist Tantric architecture and is thought to have been built around the 13th Century. Waters thus blessed flow beyond Bowatenna as the mighty Amban, the Mahaweli’s largest tributary, which has an ancient and contemporary history worthy of her own story.

To be continued

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Features

Why agriculture insurance is key to avoiding food shortages

Published

24 hours ago

2024/09/16

Thilina Walpola

Indra Rupasingha

Securing Sri Lanka’s farming future:

By. Lalin I De Silva

Indra Rupasingha, a senior value chain consultant at Vivonta Green Tech, has collaborated with the World Bank on intercropping spice crops, coffee, and tea. His expertise, enriched by Scandinavian and European agricultural systems, includes environment-controlled agriculture, organic production, and animal husbandry. His extensive experience is further demonstrated by his roles as Director at Sri Lanka State Plantations Corporation, General Manager at John Keels Plantations/Elkaduwa Plantations, and Managing Director at Lipakelle Plantation.

Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector, the backbone of the nation’s economy and food supply, faces unprecedented risks due to climate change and unpredictable policy shifts, such as the abrupt push for organic agriculture, which led to a national crisis. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, it’s imperative that candidates prioritise the creation of a robust, transparent, and effective agricultural insurance system, learning from successful models like those in Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and France. These nations have demonstrated how a well-implemented insurance system can not only protect farmers but also secure the country’s food security. Sri Lanka must follow suit to shield its farmers from disaster and encourage them to continue cultivating for profit.

Sri Lanka’s Agricultural Insurance: A Critical Need for Food Security

In recent years, Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector has suffered heavily from natural disasters and ill-advised policy changes. The overnight shift to organic farming, which lacked proper planning and execution, left farmers in disarray and the nation teetering on the edge of a food shortage. While Sri Lanka has the National Insurance Regulation Authority, it has yet to truly serve the needs of farmers, burdening them with convoluted insurance agreements and inadequate protection. With 29 insurance companies operating in Sri Lanka, only one openly shares its Net Promoter Score (NPS), leaving the rest to operate under a shroud of secrecy. This lack of transparency has eroded trust and failed to provide the safety net that farmers desperately need.

But what if Sri Lanka could learn from other nations that have successfully mitigated agricultural risks? Countries like Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and France have all developed effective agricultural insurance programmes that offer timely payouts, use advanced technology, and provide farmers with peace of mind. Implementing such a system in Sri Lanka could help the nation avoid food shortages and promote continuous, profitable cultivation.

Learning from Canada, New Zealand, the US, and France

In Canada, the AgriInsurance system is a federal-provincial partnership that leverages satellite imagery, AI-based risk assessments, and real-time data monitoring to ensure fast and accurate crop loss evaluations. Farmers in Canada are particularly satisfied with the programme because it is transparent, affordable, and provides swift compensation, allowing them to recover quickly from natural disasters and resume cultivation.

Similarly, New Zealand’s FMG Rural Insurance focuses on customer-centric services, allowing farmers to use mobile apps to report losses and track claims. This ensures minimal delays in payments and fosters trust between insurers and farmers. In the United States, the USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) works with private insurance companies under federal oversight, providing quick and standardized claim processes. Their use of satellite technology and cloud-based systems ensures accurate monitoring and dispute resolution.

In France, Groupama Agricultural Insurance integrates digital platforms that allow farmers to monitor real-time weather data and crop growth. With highly automated claim processes, French farmers enjoy efficient compensation, minimal delays, and high satisfaction.

Justifying the Need for Agricultural Insurance in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector is critical to the country’s food supply and economic stability. However, the risks associated with climate change, fluctuating market prices, and ad-hoc policy changes threaten to destabilise this vital industry. Crop insurance can provide a safety net, allowing farmers to continue cultivation despite the odds.

One of the key barriers to implementing an effective insurance system in Sri Lanka is the bureaucratic red tape, leading to delayed claims and confusion over policy conditions. Farmers are left feeling unsupported, often burdened with agreements they cannot understand without legal assistance. A simplified, transparent, and technology-driven insurance model—like those seen in developed countries—could remove these barriers, instill confidence in farmers, and promote sustained agricultural output.

In addition to protecting farmers from natural disasters, agricultural insurance can also provide a buffer against policy-related risks. As seen during Sri Lanka’s overnight shift to organic agriculture, farmers were unprepared and left vulnerable to losses. A well-drafted insurance scheme would ensure that, even in times of policy shifts, farmers can rely on compensation and return to farming.

Five key Recommendations to Make Agriculture Insurance Popular and Effective in Sri Lanka

Introduce a Farmer-Friendly Insurance Policy: Develop a simplified insurance agreement that is easy to understand, without the need for legal expertise. Make the terms and conditions clear, concise, and accessible in local languages to encourage widespread adoption.

Leverage Advanced Technology for Crop Monitoring and Claim Processing:Adopt satellite imagery, AI tools, and mobile apps to monitor crop health and assess losses. These technologies will provide real-time data, ensure accurate assessments, and expedite claim settlements, creating a transparent system.

Implement Government-Backed Reinsurance to Guarantee Payouts: Ensure that the government partners with private insurance companies to back up the claims process. This would help maintain timely payouts, build trust among farmers, and reduce the risk of disputes.

Tailor Insurance Solutions to Local Agricultural Needs: Offer insurance policies that cater to Sri Lanka’s diverse crops and regional differences. Whether it’s paddy fields or tea plantations, the insurance system should be flexible enough to cover various risks specific to each agricultural zone.

Government Subsidies to Make Premiums Affordable:Provide government-subsidised premiums to make agricultural insurance affordable for smallholder farmers, who form the majority of Sri Lanka’s agricultural workforce. This would ensure that all farmers, regardless of size or income, can access insurance coverage.

Conclusion

As the 2024 presidential election draws near, Sri Lanka’s leaders must recognize the importance of agricultural insurance in safeguarding the nation’s food security. By learning from global examples like Canada, New Zealand, the US, and France, Sri Lanka can create an effective, transparent, and technology-driven system that protects farmers and encourages them to continue cultivation in the face of adversity. Implementing these reforms will not only benefit farmers but also ensure the long-term sustainability of the country’s agricultural sector – an outcome vital to Sri Lankas future.

Lalin I De Silva, former Senior Planter, Agricultural Advisor / Consultant, Secretary General of the Ceylon planters Society, Editor of the Ceylon Planters Society Bulletin and freelance journalist.

Features

Charting a brighter future: Sri Lanka’s path to prosperity

Published

24 hours ago

2024/09/16

Thilina Walpola

By Dr Matara Gunapala

During the reign of King Parakramabahu (1153-1186), Sri Lanka earned the distinguished title of the ‘granary of the Orient,’ reflecting its unparalleled agricultural abundance. The island’s breathtaking landscapes, fertile soil, and bountiful resources—including precious stones, renowned tea, rubber, and coconut—alongside its strategic deep harbours, made it a crucial hub in maritime trade. These resources drew foreign powers’ attention, and Sri Lanka experienced successive periods of colonial dominance under the Portuguese, Dutch, and eventually the British from 1815 to 1948.

British rule shifted Sri Lanka’s focus to export-oriented plantations and infrastructure primarily to benefit colonial interests. By independence in 1948, the Sri Lankan rupee was valued at approximately Rs 3.33 to the US dollar. However, economic mismanagement in the 75 years, following independence, has led to unprecedented economic crises and currency depreciation. As of February 2024, the rupee has plummeted to around Rs 310 against the US dollar, with only a slight improvement to Rs 300 by August 2024, plunging Sri Lanka into the ranks of the world’s 22 most heavily indebted nations.

Since Sri Lanka adopted an executive presidency, a cascade of constitutional amendments has fostered an environment where corruption and misconduct flourish, compromising democratic governance, destabilising the economy, and undermining the rule of law. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Politicians wielding excessive power have exploited their positions, undermining institutions like the Central Bank and judiciary, eroding accountability, and distorting justice, leading to degraded public services and denying equitable access to opportunities, a distant dream for ordinary citizens.

While those in power and their associates revel in luxury and foreign travel, many Sri Lankans grapple with soaring prices and shortages of basic necessities. Therefore, Sri Lanka must embark on a transformative journey without delay to restore its economic health and political integrity, paving the way for a prosperous future.

Constitutional Reform

The Constitution is the bedrock of a nation’s governance, shaping the balance of power and safeguarding citizens’ rights. In Sri Lanka, however, the Constitution has been amended over 20 times, often in ways that have concentrated power in the hands of politicians, eroded judicial independence, and compromised economic stability and public service effectiveness. These changes have frequently undermined ethno-religious unity and hindered equal opportunities for all citizens. Recent attempts to further amend it to delay presidential elections have only deepened concerns about the current Constitution and the need for its drastic reform.

A few have advocated for significant changes for constitutional reform. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, presidential candidate Nagahananda Kodituwakku, and the Collective for Democracy and Rule of Law (CDRL)—a coalition of senior academics, professionals, and activists—have proposed new constitutional reform. The National Peoples Power (NPP) party has highlighted the urgent need for constitutional reform in its policy statements.

For Sri Lanka to embark on a path to prosperity, a transformative new Constitution must: a) discard the presidential system of governance and curtail politicians’ ability to influence the public sector, limiting their responsibility for policymaking; b) strengthen checks and balances to combat mismanagement and enhance transparency, ensuring accountability with strict penalties for misleading the public or making false promises, c) strengthen judicial independence to uphold justice, d) fair representation to ensure equal opportunity of all ethnic groups in governance, promote unity, and give every citizen an equitable voice, e) ensure Parliament is not a burden to the country. An excessive number of parliamentarians (225 members and the President) has long been a focal point of criticism. Their extensive powers and privileges have frequently burdened the nation. The proliferation of politicians—alongside over 455 provincial councillors and nine governors—has led to inefficiencies and corruption, with many exploiting their ability to misuse administrative and financial powers for personal gain. Therefore, a new Constitution should:

Prevent malpractices by implementing stringent measures to curb corruption and misuse of power, ensuring that public officials are held accountable for every action and expenditure.

Reducing inefficiencies by streamlining the parliamentary system by reducing the number of representatives and establishing an independent body of experts to oversee political conduct, aligning governance with democratic principles and national interests.

Introduction of merit-based appointments

The current economic crisis and rampant corruption are symptoms of a deeper problem: many politicians lack the commitment and capability to serve the nation effectively. The mismanagement of nationalised enterprises has resulted in significant economic losses and weakened public services. For effective governance, members of Parliament and public officials must be selected, based on merit—education, capability, experience, and integrity—rather than nepotism or sectarian interests. Parliamentary members should possess qualifications comparable to a recognised university degree and demonstrate essential leadership skills, including collaboration, critical thinking, and effective communication.

Moreover, political parties must prioritise national unity and development, preventing sectarian policies and political dynasties. Leadership should be determined by merit, honesty, and education rather than family ties, race, or other divisive factors. Embracing principles of meritocracy, pragmatism, and integrity—mirroring the values that contributed to Singapore’s success—can help restore Sri Lanka’s status as the “Pearl of the Indian Ocean” and set it on a path to renewed prosperity.

Strengthening Judiciary

A strong and independent judiciary is essential for upholding social justice and ensuring fair governance, especially in a nation battling widespread corruption, mismanagement, crime, and racial divide. Recently, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court has highlighted numerous individuals, including influential politicians and their associates, as key players in the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Yet, the judiciary has struggled to enforce the law effectively, allowing wrongdoers to evade accountability and enjoy government-funded luxuries. Consequently, Sri Lanka urgently needs a judicial overhaul to have an independent judiciary that will create an environment where justice prevails, public confidence in the legal system is restored, and governance is transparent and accountable, reinforcing the rule of law.

Education and Skill Development

Education is the cornerstone of a nation’s success, fostering strategic thinking, innovation, and entrepreneurship that drives prosperity and navigates the global landscape. A robust education system equips individuals with the knowledge and skills needed for personal and professional growth and promotes social cohesion. By ensuring that all ethnic and religious groups are represented in every educational institution, education can bridge divides and reduce communal tensions, creating a more unified society.

Moreover, providing opportunities for those who leave school early through technical and vocational training is crucial. These programmes enhance employability and contribute significantly to national development by preparing individuals for the workforce and addressing skill shortages.

Investment in higher education and research institutions is equally vital. Nations experiencing rapid development—such as the United States, China, South Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, and various European Union countries—are notable for their substantial research and higher education funding. This investment drives innovation, economic growth, and global competitiveness.

Additionally, independent media is crucial in educating the public and informing citizens about significant issues. In Sri Lanka, information suppression has enabled corruption and misuse of power to flourish. An independent media sector encourages critical thinking and impartial analysis, helping to curb government inefficiencies and promote transparency. Independent media, in turn, supports socio-economic development and fosters a more informed and engaged citizenry.

Building a Disciplined Nation

A nation’s prosperity hinges on effective government institutions. Honesty, integrity, capability, and effective communication are essential for creating a thriving society. Despite having limited natural resources, countries like Japan and Singapore have achieved remarkable success primarily due to their strong sense of national discipline and robust legal systems.

In contrast, Sri Lanka has faced numerous challenges rooted in a lack of discipline across various sectors—from the streets to workplaces and even Parliament. This systemic issue has significantly contributed to the country’s struggles since independence. Building a disciplined nation requires a concerted effort to instil and uphold high standards of conduct at all levels of society. By fostering a culture of accountability and ethical behaviour, Sri Lanka can pave the way for sustainable growth and renewed prosperity.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s post-independence journey has been marred by corruption, mismanagement, and self-serving politics, culminating in a severe economic crisis. It has squandered countless opportunities for prosperity. Through comprehensive constitutional reform, Sri Lanka must curb politicians’ undue influence over the judiciary and public sector to reverse this decline. Establishing an independent judiciary and promoting disciplined behaviour across all levels of government and society enables racial unity and enhances good governance.

Investing in education, research, skill development, and entrepreneurship will unlock new opportunities and drive national prosperity. Additionally, safeguarding the environment and conserving natural resources are vital for developing Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and enhancing overall quality of life. Without transformative leaders like Mandela or Angela Merkel, it falls to the people to hold politicians accountable, driving them to embrace critical changes. Only then can Sri Lanka harness its true potential, restore integrity to its institutions, and forge a brighter, more equitable future for all its citizens.

Features

Countdown Week in Sri Lanka and Debate Week in the US

Published

2 days ago

2024/09/15

Thilina Walpola

An angry Trump and a lawyerly Harris

by Rajan Philips

As Sri Lanka starts the countdown week before its September 21 presidential vote, the US finished the debate week that is expected to set the campaign tones for the remaining eight weeks before its presidential election on November 5. In a riveting performance last Tuesday, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris exceeded all expectations and with consummate lawyerly skill laid bare the utter limitations and disqualifications of Donald Trump to be America’s president a second time.

The incoherent and blustering Trump undoubtedly made Harris’s debate tasks a whole lot easier, but the pre-debate onus was on her to show that she could perform in an unscripted engagement just as well as she is showing herself to be in organized rallies and in delivering tele-prompted speeches. And she did that superbly.

As debate politics goes, the big US and little Sri Lanka are at extreme ends. Sri Lankan presidential candidates have studiously avoided the ordeal of a face to face debate in a structured forum and the challenge of responding to independently prepared questions. Instead, they are firing questions and making accusations about one another but only from the security of their own platforms and in front of their own cheerers and hangers on. President Ranil Wickremesinghe would seem to have taken this old approach to a new level in what is fast becoming his last hurrah.

A Lopsided US Method

In the US, on the other hand, self-serving media hype has turned presidential debates into the single most pivotal moment to establish the eligibility of one candidate over the other. The irony of it is that a single debate between two American candidates gets all the hype and attention in what is globally the most consequential political election. Even so, while doing well in the debate was hugely necessary for Kamala Harris to validate her credentials, it is not at all sufficient to ensure her victory in November.

Like her Democratic predecessors, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Harris is certain to win the popular vote; that is the majority of the total votes in the election. But that will not be enough unless she also gets the majority 270 of the 538 Electoral College (EC) votes in the undemocratically calibrated US presidential election system.

Al Gore polled more than George Bush nationally in the 2000 millennial election, but lost the EC vote and the election to Bush, because of his narrow loss in a single state, Florida and its 30 EC votes. Hillary Clinton similarly won the national vote but lost to Donald Trump in 2016 because of her loss in three Midwestern states – Michigan (15 EC votes), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19), all of which had been won by Obama in the two previous elections. Biden turned the tables on Trump in 2020 and won all three states and took two more (Arizona and Georgia) from Trump.

Kamala Harris is running strong but tight with Trump in all the above five states that Biden won, and has brought two more into play – North Carolina and Nevada that Trump won in 2020. She has tremendously improved the chances of a Democratic victory since taking over from Biden, but nothing is certain until the votes in the now seven swing states are cast and counted.

The rest of the fifty states are divided between the two parties with baked in support no matter who the candidates are. Identification with and loyalty to either of the two parties is well entrenched in American politics. Democrats are dominant in 18 states, the so called blue states that are more urban, populous and diverse, and account for 225 EC votes. Republicans hold sway in the 25 red states that are relatively less populous, more rural and more white, and carry 219 EC votes.

The challenge for Harris is to win enough of the seven states to get 45 more (270-225) EC votes and prevent Trump from getting the 51(270-219) EC votes he needs from any number of the seven states. The margins of victory in any and all of these states could be a few thousand votes. And those voters will determine who America’s president and the world’s superpower leader will be for the next four years. A rather lopsided method for choosing the world’s most consequential political individual. All the more so, when it could lead to the second election of someone like Donald Trump, whom Kamala Harris clinically dismissed as a national disgrace and a global joke.

The Sri Lankan Variant

The Sri Lankan voters do not have the weight of the world on their hands, but they carry the fate of the country’s economy and its politics at least for the next five years. While Sri Lanka does not have an electoral college screening system as in the US, it has its own undemocratic aspect by virtue of the ranked method to determine the winner if no candidate passes the 50% muster on the first count. As everyone is predicting, the winner next week is likely to be determined after counting the second and the third preferential votes for the first two candidates marked on the ballots of all the other candidates.

The two front runners are widely expected to be Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa, with Ranil Wickremesinghe running third – but how close or far behind is still anyone’s guess. While neither of the two front runners is expected to get more than 50% of the vote, it is also likely that whoever comes first will end up the winner even after counting the preferential votes.

The not so strange rivals

The chances are that the ultimate winner may not even exceed 40% of the vote. He could even win with only a third of the vote and would immediately be stigmatized as the executive president with one-third mandate. In a polity that swears by the two-thirds majority. No matter, the country will have a new president. Unless Ranil Wickremesinghe magically manages in one week to bewitch an electorate that has grown tired of him over several decades. Yet it would have been more democratic, but expensive, to have a second runoff election between the two front runners to elect a president with a clear majority.

There is a second point of difference between the US and Sri Lankan presidential elections. In the US, the president, the whole House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are all elected on the same day. The new administration and the legislature start their new tenure after the inauguration in January following the November election. The Sri Lankan presidential election next week will complete only half the job. The new president will assume office almost immediately after the election, but will be stuck with the old parliament that is crying to be put out of its misery. Again, there are unprecedented possibilities.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared that if elected he would immediately dissolve parliament and call for a general election. There will be a caretaker government until a new parliament is elected. That is a clean as a whistle approach that is consistent with AKD’s promise to start a new chapter for the country. But it is not without perils and pitfalls. The size of his vote will determine the leeway he has in implementing a caretaker government. And the performance of the caretaker government with AKD as president will hugely determine the NPP’s fortunes at the parliamentary election.

The challenges are huge given the NPP’s inexperience in government. Innocence in government ceases to be a virtue once you start making choices and decisions that impact people. There may not be much time for expatriate experts to arrive and take care of a caretaker government before the parliamentary election. Unless there is already a plan in AKD’s back pocket.

Sajith Premadasa, unless I have missed it, has not taken a clear position like AKD on what he will do with the current parliament if he (SP) were elected as president. Unlike AKD, SP has enough numbers in parliament to form an interim cabinet and keep going for a while before calling a general election. He will have the opposite problem to that of AKD. While AKD will have to bring in people whom nobody knows, Sajith Premadasa will have a time excluding people whom everyone hates. It is difficult to see what Ranil Wickremesinghe will do differently if he were to beat all odds and be elected as president. He could certainly savour his lifetime achievement but that will be of no service to the country.

Both Dissanayake and Premadasa will have to figure out a way to implement their promise to eliminate the elected-executive presidential system. The easiest and the surest way would be to start the process immediately and tag a referendum question on the presidency to the general election ballot. That would call for a decision on their own status as president – if they are ready to do the opposite of, and reverse, what JRJ did in 1977/78. Anything less will show their lack of seriousness. There is no point in calling it a betrayal after all the broken promises since 1994.

Traditionally, Sri Lankan voters have been motivated by multiple factors: the ethnic identity, class politics, party loyalty, caste prejudice, candidates’ likeability etc. But these factors have always been woven into an overriding wave of judgment on the performance of the government in power. Until 1977, voters generally and cyclically voted governments out of power and the opposition into power. The cycle has been wrenched up after 1977 in more ways than one.

The upcoming election next week is unique in that there is no one to be judged and thrown out of power. Aragalaya has already done that, and the Rajapaksas are now out of even contention. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidacy is also unique in that he doesn’t think that he should be judged for anything, but rewarded for saving the country from the Rajapaksa mess. The problem with that premise is that while he may have cleaned up the economic mess of the Rajapaksas, he has perpetuated their political mess.

For the first time, and uniquely as well, Anura Kumara Dissanayake is presenting himself as the spearhead of a new political force without past political baggage, and is appealing to the expectations of people to have an honest and efficient government. He has won over many people to his promises about the future, but what is not known is how many people are taking him at his word that his organization no longer has any of its old baggage.

There is not much that is unique about Sajith Premadasa, but he has emerged as a fortuitous beneficiary of the disintegration of the country’s traditional political organizations. Dissanayake and Premadasa are the acknowledged frontrunners, but they have distances to go to prove their political mettle both before and more so after the election.