Things are moving forward in the right direction under the interim triumvirate Cabinet of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Prime Minister Amarasuriya and Minister of several ministries – Vijitha Herath. A new system is obviously set in place and we are hopeful for the future of Sri Lanka. Officials of the government have successfully negotiated with the IMF so we are safely assured of financial help. These are further loans, but we do not shiver as we did under previous regimes because repayment had to be done and we lacked faith in those previous regimes.

Why can this renewed faith be repaid in due course? Because the most damning curse that throttled the country is to be curtailed and eliminated– corruption that syphoned off millions to private pockets. Cass remembers jubilation when the first IMF tranche was given SL. It was like a gift being given, forgetting that it was a further loan to be repaid. No such nonsensical celebration this time.

One warning that wiser counsel gives is hemin, hemin. Many shout for quick action from outside and within the JVP, too. People are asking for this and that and mostly that the corrupt be caught and punished. There is time for that. First priority is to improve the economy of the country. We have confidence in the new President that he will set priorities in government action and will see they are followed.

Interview with NPPer 

Much of the caution Cass advocates in her previous paragraphs was pronounced loud, clear and authoritatively by the NPP Executive Committee member Attorney-at-Law Harshana Nanayakkara in an interview with Alanki on the Conversation talk show. Its subject of discussion was the immediate future after the general elections, in particular the law and order policies and action taken or proposed. Harshana was very vocal as he usually is and spoke clearly, precisely and very convincingly, Cass opines.

The first criminal incident discussed was the bond scam; next was the Easter Sunday attack. The interviewer then moved to the subjects:  abolition of the Presidency; new Constitution and position of women and children. In the first two undertakings, the question asked by the public is how soon will the corrupt be exposed and punished. This was Alanki’s tag to most of her questions

Harshana’s replies were minus rhetoric, instead sensible and to be approved of by the wise, mature and staid citizens of the country. Firebrands and youth in a hurry to witness punishment were told in no uncertain terms that all the above takes time; that the new government will not rush into matters, particularly ‘catching rogues’ and meting out punishment. Harshana made it very clear that each case will be studied very carefully and action will be taken. He said that most financial crimes are committed 100% cautiously and cleverly, with no trails left, but ‘crumbs’ may be lying around.

These can be picked up and worked on by very smart and trained sleuths, given complete freedom to get on with their work, especially political or ‘high-up’ pressure. However, he judiciously noted that even suspected criminals, if law and justice cannot prove them guilty, will go free.

He gave the assurance that the arms of law and judiciary will be given independence and freedom to work with no governmental interference, least of all influence. Another fact he emphasised was that no timeline nor time of accomplishing such undertakings could be given. However, results will be given before the five years of the NPP government are over; more so closure to the Easter tragedy.

Corruption, he made clear, calls for elimination but alongside prevention is important. To ensure the latter he said one method was to reduce interaction of government officials and members of the public. This to be achieved by increased digital services and more transactions between the public and government officials to be on-line.  Institutions will be made accountable. He also noted that checks and balances were required.

He mentioned we have 21 amendments to the Constitution. A new one will be placed before the country. Work had already been started by previous governments but they lacked the will to complete the job. The NPP government would achieve this, since committees are already working on it.

Thus, the abolition of the post of president. Cass’ gut feeling is that the majority of Sri Lankans want this and a return to parliamentary system as pre-1977. Cass’ additional other personal gut feeling is that the presidency should be eliminated after Prez AKD’s term or just before it ends. We need a sole leader to control and further the good policies outlined.

What was mentioned was that women’s and children’s issues, which differ, will be given consideration and corrections made. Idea is for 50% representation in government and other institutions by women. Awareness creation and education were still necessary to bring about gender equality. Policies would be outlined and implemented and antiquated laws be abolished or revised to create inclusive societies. However, laws alone cannot achieve equality.

Harshana mentioned that the northern issue or problem would be dealt with.

However, it is hoped that the NPP will not receive a 2/3 majority in Parliament. That is not at all healthy and has proved to be disastrous in Sri Lankan politics. A hope that Cass harbours is that a sort of cooperative government will be the necessary outcome of the 14 Nov. general election. Twenty five Cabinet Ministers is what is stipulated by the NPP. Fine. Hope is that among them will be outstanding persons from other parties – the SJB and others. Cass bravely names two: President’s Counsel M A Sumanthiran and Attorney–at-Law Aly Sabry who have proved to be highly competent and country-loyal politicians sans racial and religious biases.

Exposes

MTV Channel 1 is telecasting a programme on corruption in Sri Lanka. The series is titled, “What happened to Sri Lanka” and we have been given details of the Teasury bond scams during  Ranil Wickremesinghe’s premiership; Sri Lankan Airlines’ nosedive after President Mahinda Rajapaksa sacked the SriLankan Airlines CEO. It was also revealed how brother-in-law, who was SriLankan Chairman rerouted flights arbitrarily. Also documented and aired over were President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s disastrous ban on agrochemicals. Uncovered also was the import of thousands of cows to boost milk production. Instead they infected local cattle, fell sick and soon died. But, of course, some people collected huge commissions, we believe. All these were heinous ways of earning money for some. They happened during the elitist families’ regimes; the R brothers, too, considered elitist. So, having a non-elitist leader and most probably a government of the non-rich persons, we may be on a path of good governance at long last. No wonder a descendent of the truly elite – the first PM of Ceylon and Father of the Nation – voted for the NPP at the presidential election and will surely vote for NPP contenders in the forthcoming election too.

The world scene is gloomy. Two wars, one in the Middle East threatening to conflagrate due mostly to the stubbornness of Hamas and Hezbollah and of course Israeli Netanyahu, rage on. The race for the White House is still said to be neck to neck, unbelievable to us over here that Trump is still running strong against eminently suitable Kamala Harris. We turn inward from these to feel a sense of satisfaction that our bankrupt nation is being given a chance to change and be what it could and should be. So, on that hopeful note Cassandra says her goodbye for a week

by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe
parajayasinghe@gmail.com

A new Dawn

It is everyone’s hope that we could at last be moving towards a new dawn of prosperity and a future of sustainable growth in all aspects of economy and social wellbeing.  With the President Anura Kumara Dissanayake leading the way.  This hope is most prevalent in the energy sector, which has remained in the clutches of the fossil fuel lobby. While the transport fuels still remain near 100% dependent on imported fossil fuels, energy sources used for the generation of electricity have shown some progress in gaining none dependence on such imports using indigenous sources of renewable energy. While the present contribution of only 12% of the total energy mix by electricity may not seem significant , what is more important is to recognise that electricity being the most desired and flexible form of energy for energy sector of energy demand , projects a future of near 100% electricity based energy sector, by the optimal utilisation of our bounty of nature.  Sri Lanka is blessed with renewable energy sources of magnitude which is far beyond the energy needs of the country, covering all sectors, many fold even with the projected growth over many decades,

This is even more significant is the fact that Sri Lanka has no indigenous fossil fuels, which makes it imperative that we utilise this   bounty to arrest the continual drain of the valuable foreign reserves, as fast as possible. The great fortune of advances in technologies in recent years enabling the development of such renewable energy without delay should therefore take the highest priority of the new government.

The recent presidential election has brought to the sharp focus the urgency of this with the realisation that it is the present unwise dependence on imported sources of fossil fuel which is the primary reason for the fall of the previous government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the false claims of energy security claimed by the last interim government’s  defeat.

The more pragmatic Vision of the New Government

The established policy of reaching a target of 70% contribution of renewable energy for electricity generation by year 2030 have been confirmed by all presidential candidates, as well as the eventual achievement of status of zero emissions by 2050. with even more focus by the NPP.

Under these circumstances, it is topical to discuss the way forward and the path that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake would choose in arriving at these targets, particularly  since the portfolio of Energy is listed under his purview, which we hope he would retain after the parliamentary elections and the formation of the new cabinet of ministers.

It is therefore relevant to be reminded of the references made in the Presidential Manifesto on the energy sector., which has laid much emphasis and recognition of the bountiful renewable energy resources of Sri Lanka.  The much wider relevance and the potential of such resources to play a major role in the economy beyond mere supply of energy to the other sectors of energy, is for the first time has been recognised by the policy makers.  The section title of the Manifesto on energy itself highlights this recognition: 3.10 A Secured Energy Centre – A sustainable Revenue Resource”

This is further elaborated by the item listed as the “Principles”

• Energy as an essential national service
• Sustainable and secure energy supply
• Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange

While agreeing wholeheartedly to these principles as the basis for a future energy policy we would like to propose few more inalienable principles or policy imperatives to this list

• The nation’s energy resources belong to the people and the benefits of their utilisation must primarily flow to the people.
• It is no longer true that the energy sector development needs to be the purview of the large-scale entrepreneurs, either in the state or private sector, requiring very large capital investments, nor is there a need for centralised large power plants remote from load centers.
• Under no circumstances should we pay Dollars for our own RE resources.
• National Security is closely linked to national Energy Security. This can be guaranteed only by ensuring that the energy industry remains in control of the national entities both public and private.
• The main consumers of energy are electricity and transport fuels. It is imperative that any energy policy should consider at least these two in conjunction and concurrently.
• The facility of creating “Prosumers” can be the means by which the low-end consumers can be rescued from the trap of eternal poverty in spite of the many forms of state handouts which over the years have proven futile in poverty alleviation.

  The Specific Activities Proposed

The proposed activities in the manifesto support the above principles and if implemented with courage and conviction with combined commitment of all the related agencies, unlike the present practice of totally disharmonious and opposing actions, the success of achieving the targets can be guaranteed.

The important message that should be brought to the attention of The President is the need to ensure no action or policy be permitted from now on that would hinder the progress or form barriers in achieving these goals.  A distinct change in the attitude of the state agencies and officials is required. Hitherto that has been totally lacking with even the target of achieving the 70% RE goal not being assigned to any agency.

This is due to the unfortunate situation prevailing in the state sector of there being no sense of accountability, either mandatorily or voluntarily.  The most essential and urgent change needed is to mandate the task of achieving the stated goals to particular officials in the primary agency identified as the most appropriate when many agencies are responsible. Such a mandate must flow from the Chairman downwards with measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) assigned with time targets. This is most easily done in the electricity sector immediately and the transport and other sectors of energy usage to follow without delay.

The present government has brought in a number of new appointees to head the key agencies in the energy sector. We propose that these personnel inconsideration of their past record of knowledge and experience (unlike in the past when appointments were given to friends and relatives only irrespective of their suitability) be given strict instructions with the responsibilities for achievement of set targets and to pass down such responsibilities to their staff.  Gaining the support and cooperation of other related agencies and overcoming any barriers should be strictly their responsibility.

While the transport sector without any form of future vision or programmes working in total ignorance of the major changes happening in the world would  be  difficult to be brought to this form of sustainable and future proof status, the already established and adopted policies in the Electricity Sector and the technological advances made even in Sri Lanka provides the base line on which such time based targets can be assigned.

The current target of 70% renewable energy based power generation by 2030 has proven to be quite achievable and non-challenging based on recent experiences.  In fact, this target was surpassed in some days during the latter months of 2023 as shown below. (See graph)

• The first KPI to be issued is therefore a directive to the Ceylon Electricity Board to develop a time based programme with annual targets commencing now towards progressively enhancing this RE contribution of 70% minimum by 2030. CEB must be held responsible for the achievement, for which of course they would need to get the support and assistance of the private sector developers.  With the co-operation and commitment of their own staff. and facilitation the “Prosumers” themselves would reach the expected 5000 MW well before the target year 2030. (The target of 2000 MW in five years as stated is well below the potential of the local Solar Industry)
• A further commitment made by the new government is to lower the cost of electricity to the consumers. It is obvious that this could only be achieved through the rapid expansion of the contribution by the renewable energy based generation, which is now universally accepted and proven by the records of the CEB itself.  Towards this task another action point in the NPP manifesto can be cited as the next KPI to be issued to the CEB. “Directing the currently oil-based electricity generation towards low-cost renewable solar and wind sources” This feasibility is illustrated below.
• The objective of lowering the cost of generation and thereby the consumer tariff would certainly not be achieved by the recent cabinet decision to reduce the Feed in Tariff for the Solar Rooftop PV, which fortunately has not been approved by the PUCSL. Each unit of Solar PV added would reduce the equivalent unit generated using oil costing at least Rs 63.00 as per data below. (See Table)

The potential saving of Rs 113.65 Billion annually could provide the means of lowering the consumer tariff by Rs 7.5 per unit on average.

Should we pursue LNG relevant anymore?

About five years ago Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) was very much in discussion as a clean fuel and a possible intermediate solution to eventually eliminate the use of Coal and Oil for power generation. Perhaps under the prevailing circumstances then, when the Renewable Energy Options such as Solar and Wind had not gained the favorable status, both of technical acceptance and financial viability, this consideration may have been correct and timely. However, a much-detailed analysis with wide stakeholder consultation is required at present before pursuing this option.

However, Sri Lanka not having any land based Natural Gas, and the challenging issue of the infrastructure required for the utilization of imported LNG for economic use needed to be evaluated in depth. This still remains unresolved.  At the same time being typical of the disjointed decision-making process in Sri Lanka, the tender for the development of a 350 MW LNG power plant to operate on nonexistent LNG was awarded and the plant is nearly complete. It is reported that even in Australia with its own Natural Gas resource the cost of NG based power is reported to be exorbitant.

Under these circumstances, although listed in the Activities in the Manifesto, we propose that this issue requires a much deeper and coherent analysis and evaluation before any concrete steps are taken. It is our opinion that Sri Lanka no longer needs any imported LNG.

If we are fortunate to get funding to develop our Mannar resource viability of which is now established, it must be considered as the means of achieving the principle of v Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange But under no circumstances should we build any more LNG based power plants as listed in the current Long-Term Generation Plant and still being promoted by some with their tunnel vision.

Conclusion

It is quite obvious that Sri Lanka is at the threshold of change in all aspects. This is most essential and urgent in the Energy Sector which if handled properly would give Sri Lanka the much-needed window of opportunity for economic prosperity. It is most encouraging that the present government has clearly identified this opportunity.

This article attempts to highlight the need to be warned of many decades of vested interests by many parties, which has kept Sri Lanka over dependent on imported fossil fuels thus preventing the flow of such prosperity to the people. The danger also exists of such elements trying to propagate antiquated principles and themes, with the underlying objective of keeping Sri Lanka trapped in fossil fuels for obvious reasons.

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Very rightly, important sections of world opinion are commemorating the Hamas-initiated terror attack of October 7th last year on Israeli civilians in southern Israel which triggered the current spiral of unsettling bloodshed in the Middle East. Prospects of initiating a fresh peace effort in the region are bleak at the moment but it is probably comforting for particularly humanists the world over to note that more and more responsible public personalities and entities are calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East.

It is equally important that the latter sections are also voicing the need for the implementation of the sensible ‘Two State’ solution in the Middle East. The latest of prominent political leaders to call for a political solution on these lines was New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who is on record as stating that; ‘There is simply no military action that will reduce regional tensions and conflict’, while underscoring the need for the ‘Two State solution’.

The latter solution has come in for criticism over the decades in some quarters as unlikely to proving effective, but the rationally-inclined among the world community are not likely to perceive an alternative to it and very rightly so. Given the highly horrific character of the present bloodshed in the Middle East, only the sadistic and emotionally unstable are likely to continue to advocate a military solution to the crisis.

However, there is no denying that the road to peace in the Middle East would prove to be rocky and hazardous. One factor that has been getting in the way of a political solution is the persistence of virulent identity politics on both sides of the divide.

For instance, the current protests globally over the October 7th bloodletting clearly indicate a marked polarity of opinion on questions growing out of the conflict. To all intents and purposes there is an accelerated ‘crowding out’ and stifling of moderate opinion advocating a peaceful solution to the crisis on both sides of the divide.

That is, hardline opinion springing from irrational loyalty to religious and ethnic identities has come to the fore in both predominant camps; the Israelis and the Palestinians. The persistence of such polarities would majorly hamper any peace moves.

On the Israeli side, the charge is being led by no less a person than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His recent addresses to the UN General Assembly and the Lebanese public, for example, had the effect of killing all hope of the international community and other sections even attempting to resolve the conflict by political means. The essential thrust of his addresses was that Israel would stop at nothing until all terror groups in the enemy camp were militarily eliminated.

Netanyahu has the staunch backing of his defense establishment which is dominated by religious fundamentalists. That is, Jewish religious texts are coming to be interpreted most literally. The scripture is taken at face value. The word of the sacred law takes paramount precedence over its spirit, from the viewpoint of such fundamentalist national leaders.

This is how bloodshed comes to be repaid with bloodshed. Retributive Justice and not humanity comes to guide these policymakers. ‘A fracture for a fracture, an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth..’, thus runs the logic of these religious hardliners. It ought to be plain to see that until those hostile to Israel are rooted out ‘tooth and nail’, the war against Hamas and its militant backers, local and foreign, would continue.

Unfortunately the Palestinian side too is dominated by religious hardliners who are committed to destroying Israel. From the time of the Jewish state’s inception it has come to be seen by Palestinian hardliners as the archetypal enemy which needs to be eliminated by military means. In this destructive project they are staunchly backed by the Islamic theocratic state of Iran which is ardently committed to seeing an end to Israel; which for Iran, is the number one enemy state of the Islamic world or ‘the rabid dog of the US.’

Thus, given that neither Israel nor Palestine is for making peace under their current leaders it would not be wrong to infer that both sides are locked in a conflict that promises mutual destruction. Nor could it be presumed that a cessation of the supply of lethal arms to Israel by the US and its allies would prompt the Israeli leadership to consider going in for a negotiated solution.

The fallaciousness of the latter line of thinking is borne out by the fact that since its inception, Israel has, when the situation demanded it, stood up alone against its enemies and defeated them on even several geographical fronts.

It would not be wrong to infer from the foregoing that Israel would even fight ‘on its own steam’, irrespective of whether it would be having external backing or not. However, a guarantee by the Palestinian side and its backers of Israel’s future security and its physical wholeness and integrity could see a de-escalation of the conflict.

Until the latter development comes to pass, therefore, along with a similar guarantee being made by Israel to Palestine, prospects of seeing a cessation of the current bloodshed in the Middle East could be described as bleak.

However, a final peace in the Middle East is a much bigger, complex issue that could be only taken on by perhaps the UN, once there is a drastic reduction in the present bloodletting. Besides a commitment by the Palestinian side to ensure the security of Israel and a like guarantee by the latter to Palestine, the highly knotty issue of identity politics needs to be resolved by both sides in cooperation with the international community to pave the way for permanent peace.

This is an uphill task considering that identity politics is kept alive by ambitious politicians for the furtherance of their power designs. In fact the challenge is for the entirety of the world’s democracies. As has been pointed out in this column previously, one way to meet this challenge is for the UN to play a predominant role in encouraging democratic change worldwide.

The UN could increasingly, for instance, tie its assistance to the more repressive states on the condition that the latter would be accountable to their people, rid them of repressive control and foster democratic institutions and values within their borders. This could help in blunting the appeal of identity politics for populist leaders and their regimes but, admittedly, this a long gestation, challenging project. However, this process needs to be initiated majorly going forward, considering the mounting human and material costs of identity politics, as is the case in the Middle East.