Features
The death of a President and the Arrest Warrant for a Prime Minister
by Rajan Philips
Neither the tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi nor the ICC Prosecutor’s request for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to have any significant implications for the short term in either of the two countries or in the region. The Iranian regime’s standing in the short term is believed to be assured with the transfer of power already to Vice President Mohammad Mokhber and his likely endorsement in the national election scheduled for June 28.
The uncertainty and the speculation after President Raisi’s death are about the succession of the 85 year old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The late President was widely expected to succeed Ali Khamenei and that would have ensured an almost seamless regime continuity. The search for an alternative successor will open opportunities both for internal power struggle in the regime and for regime opponents to take another crack at Iran’s hybrid state.
Equally, there will be no immediate change either in Israel or in Gaza arising from the bold and balanced decision of the Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, of the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in the Hague, Netherlands, to ask for arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu, his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas’s leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and its political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Mr. Netanyahu was already under pressure from his political rival and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz to come up with a postwar solution for Gaza immediately or to step down from office. Now Gantz and almost all of Israel are united in denouncing the decision of the ICC prosecutor. That lets Netanyahu off the hook for now but not for long.
Hamas too has denounced the prosecutor’s warrant application as an attempt “to equate the victim and the executioner.” Just like pro-Israeli denunciation of the warrant for allegedly drawing a false equivalence between a democratic state and a terrorist organization.” President Biden has called the arrest move “outrageous” and the Republicans in the US Congress are planning a bipartisan move to pass sanctions on Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan and other ICC officials to punish them for preparing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defence minister.
Mixed Reactions
The Biden Administration would seem to be going along with it based on the nod to the legislators given by Secretary of State Antony Blinken when he appeared before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee the day after Khan’s warrant move. Imposing sanctions would be a repeat of the US sanctions during Trump presidency against Khan’s predecessor Fatou Bensouda when she opened investigations, in 2019, into alleged war crimes by the US in Afghanistan and by Israel in the Palestinian territories. So, Mr. Khan is not doing anything new, but the US Democrats at that time ridiculed Trump and the Republicans for imposing sanctions against ICC officials.
And within three months of replacing Trump, in April 2021, the Biden Administration lifted Trump’s sanctions against Ms. Bensouda. Secretary Blinken said at that time while the US continued to “disagree strongly with the ICC’s actions relating to the Afghanistan and Palestinian situations,” the approach of the Biden Administration would be to address its concerns “through engagement with all stakeholders in the ICC process rather than through the imposition of sanctions.” Now, the Secretary and the Administration are following the example of Trump and letting the Republicans lead the sanctions process.
Whatever might be the final outcome of Prosecutor Khan’s warrant application, it has already had the unintended but inevitable effect of exposing the growing division among western countries over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The same division that the world saw in the UN vote on granting Palestine a full member status is now being replayed over the actions of the ICC. The US and Israel are standing together and are standing isolated. They are joined by a few countries like Hungary. Hungary voted against the UN resolution on Palestinian status and its Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-time ally of Netanyahu, has now criticized the ICC warrant decision.
In Britain, where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a snap election for July 4, which The Economist has described as “odd and illogical – much like him,” the two parties are divided on the ICC warrant matter. Although irrelevant, it is worth noting that ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan is a British Barrister born to Pakistani parents and raised in Scotland. Mr. Sunak has called the warrant application “a deeply unhelpful development.” The Labour Party, on the other hand, has indicated that the UK and all members of the ICC, “have a legal obligation” to comply with ICC warrants.
Mr. Khan’s warrant application is the first to target the leader of a ‘western country’, which Israel is considered to be. The warrant is subject to review by a panel of three ICC judges who can amend, reject, or approve it. If approved as requested, the onus will be on member countries to arrest Mr. Netanyahu if he were to visit any of them. There is an outstanding ICC arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin alleging unlawful transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. The warrant was issued on March 17, 2023, the first against the leader of one of the five permanent member countries of the UN Security Council. The warrant against Putin was welcomed by Ukraine’s western allies including the US, and it has curtailed Mr. Putin’s overseas travel for fear of being arrested.
A majority of western countries have also expressed support for the ICC Prosecutor’s warrant applications for arresting Israeli and Hamas leaders. Ireland, Norway, and Spain have gone further and made a coordinated announcement recognizing Palestine as a state to standing ovations in their respective parliaments. They now join the more than 140 countries that have already recognized Palestinian statehood. None of this would bring about a foreseeable end to the continuing tragedy in Gaza or the continuation of Netanyahu as Prime Minister. There is still a long and tortuous road ahead. But the signposts to a future Palestinian state are ever so slightly getting clearer.
President Raisi’s Funeral
At the same time, the creation of a new Palestinian State is not going to be at the expense of the State of Israel. Hence the two state solution. The State of Israel is now recognized by 165 of the UN’s 193 member states. The 28 countries that have not recognized Israel are mostly Muslim countries, many of them members of the Arab League who were signatories to the celebrated 1967 Khartoum Resolution: The Three Noes of Khartoum – no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel. That was in the wake of the Six Day Arab-Israeli war of 1967. A number of countries, including Sudan, have since gone past Khartoum and have recognized Israel and established diplomatic relations. The notable exception is Iran.
Even under the Shah, Iran voted against and opposed the partition plan and the admission of Israel as a UN Member. De facto (not de jure) relations with Israel were subsequently established, but everything was severed after the 1979 Iranian revolution. The official Iranian rhetoric has since been to call for the elimination of Israel, the same rhetoric as that of Hamas, and a mutually reinforcing counter to the Netanyahu rhetoric rejecting not only the two-state solution, but also the very concept of a Palestinian state.
There is not going to be any change in Iran’s rhetoric or its position against Israel in the aftermath of President Raisi’s death. But there could be a pause in the regional needling between the two countries as both Netanyahu in Israel and the regime in Iran will have their hands full attending to other pressures and priorities. President Raisi’s funeral in Tehran became a focal point for portraying Iran’s domestic politics and its external outreach.
The funeral may have provided the first occasion for the presence of foreign dignitaries in large numbers after Trump’s disastrous abrogation of the West’s nuclear deal with Iran that was signed during the Obama presidency. If the sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration were intended to turn Iran into a pariah state, that has not happened. The US sanctions have hurt Iran economically, but they have not weakened its influence not only regionally, but also globally.
The funeral provided the occasion for the Global South to mark its presence, and for the West its ‘unwelcomeness.’ Not to mention the ritual chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” The regional countries were fully represented, including foreign ministers from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Perhaps the most significant attendee was Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, just two days after the ICC Prosecutor’s arrest warrant application. Others included Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem and Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam Al Houthi.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to overstate the regional influence of Iran. In fact, one of the failed objectives of the 1979 Iranian revolution, at least as articulated by Ayatollah Khomeini, has been the failure of the intended ‘export’ of the revolution to Arab countries outside Iran and overwhelm their corrupt governments. Khomeini wanted to appeal to all Muslims, both Sunnis and Shiites, even as he was scornful of the idea of nationalism within the Islamic umma. The revolution entrenched Iran’s historic uniqueness in the region – its Persian roots and Shiite faith, but it could not purchase faithful followers beyond its borders. The only exception has been Syria that has allied with Iran, and in this century the accidental addition of Iraq – thanks to the ill-advised Bush-Blair misadventure in Iraq.
From a domestic standpoint, President Raisi’s funeral, in terms of attendance and public grief, reportedly fell far short of the 2020 funeral of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian General who was assassinated on the orders of US President Trump. Notable absentees were Iran’s living past presidents, some of whom have been more effective in establishing relative presidential autonomy, unlike the late Ebrahim Raisi who was believed to be more of a fig leaf President to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Khamenei was Iran’s President under Ayatollah Khomeini’s, and became the Supreme Leader in 1989, following Khomeini’s death and allegedly thwarting the succession pursuit of Khomeini’s son. Now with President Raisi gone, there is speculation that Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei could be a potential contender to succeed his father as the next Supreme Leader. That would be filial succession and could be seen as a betrayal of the revolution that ended the Pahlavi Dynasty,
The perceptive commentator seeking to make some sense of social and economic developments within most Southern countries today has no choice but to revisit, as it were, that classic on post-colonial societies, ‘The Wretched of the Earth’ by Frantz Fanon. Decades after the South’s initial decolonization experience this work by the Algerian political scientist of repute remains profoundly relevant.
The fact that the Algeria of today is seeking accountability from its former colonizer, France, for the injustices visited on it during the decades of colonial rule enhances the value and continuing topicality of Frantz’s thinking and findings. The fact that the majority of the people of most decolonized states are continuing to be disempowered and deprived of development should doubly underline the significance of ‘The Wretched of the Earth’ as a landmark in the discourse on Southern questions. The world would be erring badly if it dismisses this evergreen on decolonization and its pains as in any way outdated.
Developments in contemporary China help to throw into relief some of the internal ‘structural deficiencies’ that have come to characterize most Southern societies in current times. However, these and many more ‘structural faults’ came to the attention of the likes of Fanon decades back.
It is with considerable reservations on their truthfulness that a commentator would need to read reports from the US’ Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on developments in China, but one cannot approach with the same skepticism revelations on China by well-known media institutions such as Bloomberg News.
While an ODNI report quoted in this newspaper on March 25th, 2025, elaborated on the vast wealth believed to have been amassed by China’s contemporary rulers and their families over the years, Bloomberg News in a more studied manner said in 2012, among other things, on the same subject that, ‘Xi’s extended family had amassed assets totaling approximately $376 million, encompassing investments in sectors like rare earth minerals and real estate. However, no direct links were established between these assets and Xi or his immediate family.’
Such processes that are said to have taken hold in China in post- Mao times in particular are more or less true of most former colonies of the South. A clear case in point is Sri Lanka. More than 75 years into ‘independence’ the latter is yet to bring to book those sections of its ruling class that have grown enormously rich on ill-gotten gains. It seems that, as matters stand, these sections would never be held accountable for their unbounded financial avarice.
The mentioned processes of exploitation of a country’s wealth, explain in considerable measure, the continuing underdevelopment of the South. However, Fanon foresaw all these ills and more about the South long ago. In ‘The Wretched of the Earth’ he speaks insightfully about the ruling classes of the decolonized world, who, having got into the boots of the departing colonizers, left no stone unturned to appropriate the wealth of their countries by devious means and thereby grow into the stratum described as ‘the stinking rich.’
This is another dimension to the process referred to as ‘the development of underdevelopment.’ The process could also be described as ‘How the Other Half Dies’. The latter is the title of another evergreen piece of research of the seventies on the South’s development debacles by reputed researcher Susan George.
Now that the Non-aligned Movement is receiving some attention locally it would be apt to revisit as it were these development debacles that are continuing to bedevil the South. Among other things, NAM emerged as a voice of the world’s poor. In fact in the seventies it was referred to as ‘The trade union of the poor.’ Accordingly, it had a strong developmental focus.
Besides the traditional aims of NAM, such as the need for the South to keep an ‘equidistance’ between the superpowers in the conduct of its affairs, the ruling strata of developing countries were also expected to deliver to their peoples equitable development. This was a foremost dimension in the liberation of the South. That is, economic growth needed to be accompanied by re-distributive justice. In the absence of these key conditions no development could be said to have occurred.
Basing ourselves on these yardsticks of development, it could be said that Southern rulers have failed their peoples right through these decades of decolonization. Those countries which have claimed to be socialistic or centrally planned should come in for the harshest criticism. Accordingly, a central aim of NAM has gone largely unachieved.
It does not follow from the foregoing that NAM has failed completely. It is just that those who have been charged with achieving NAM’s central aims have allowed the Movement to go into decline. All evidence points to the fact that they have allowed themselves to be carried away by the elusive charms of the market economy, which three decades ago, came to be favoured over central planning as an essential of development by the South’s ruling strata.
However, now with the returning to power in the US of Donald Trump and the political Right, the affairs of the South could, in a sense, be described as having come full circle. The downgrading of USAID, for instance, and the consequent scaling down of numerous forms of assistance to the South could be expected to aggravate the development ills of the hemisphere. For instance, the latter would need to brace for stepped-up unemployment, poverty and social discontent.
The South could be said to have arrived at a juncture where it would need to seek ways of collectively advancing its best interests once again with little or no dependence on external assistance. Now is the time for Southern organizations such as NAM to come to the forefront of the affairs of the South. Sheer necessity should compel the hemisphere to think and act collectively.
Accordingly, the possibility of South-South cooperation should be explored anew and the relevant institutional and policy framework needs to be created to take on the relevant challenges.
It is not the case that these challenges ceased to exist over the past few decades. Rather it is a case of these obligations being ignored by the South’s ruling strata in the belief that externally imposed solutions to the South’s development questions would prove successful. Besides, these classes were governed by self- interest.
It is pressure by the people that would enable their rulers to see the error of their ways. An obligation is cast on social democratic forces or the Centre-Left to come to center stage and take on this challenge of raising the political awareness of the people.
On the morning of 21 March, 2025, a Chinese-built K-8 jet trainer aircraft of the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) crashed at Wariyapola. Fortunately, the two pilots ejected from the aircraft and parachuted down to safety.
A team of seven has been appointed to investigate the accident. Their task is to find the ‘cause behind the cause’, or the root cause. Ejecting from an aircraft usually has physical and psychological repercussions. The crew involved in the crash are the best witnesses, and they must be well rested and ready for the accident inquiry. It is vital that a non-punitive atmosphere must prevail. If the pilots believe that they are under threat of punishment, they will try to withhold vital information and not reveal the truth behind what happened, prompting their decision to abandon the stricken aircraft. In the interest of fairness, the crew must have a professional colleague to represent them at the Inquiry.
2000 years ago, the Roman philosopher Cicero said that “To err is human.” Alexander Pope said, “To err is human. To forgive, divine.” Yet in a Royal Air Force (RAF) hangar in the UK Force (RAF) hangs a sign declaring: “To err is human. To forgive is not RAF policy” These are the two extremes.
Over the years, behavioural scientists have observed that errors and intelligence are two sides of the same coin. In other words, an intelligent human being is liable to make errors. They went on to label these acts of omission and commission as ‘Slips, Lapses, Mistakes and Violations’.
To illustrate the point in a motoring context, if one was restricted to driving at a speed limit of 100 kph along an expressway and the speed crept up to 120 kph, then it is a ‘Slip’ on one’s part. If you forgot to fasten the seatbelt, it is a ‘Lapse’. While driving along a two-lane road, if a driver thinks in his/her judgement that the way is clear and tries to overtake slower traffic on the road, using the opposite lane, then encounters unanticipated opposite traffic and is forced to get back to the correct lane, that is a ‘Mistake’. Finally, if a double line is crossed while overtaking, while aware that the law is being broken, that is labelled as a ‘Violation’. In theory, all of the above could be applied to flying as well.
In the mid-Seventies, Elwyn Edwards and Frank Hawkins proposed that good interaction between Software (paperwork), Hardware (the aircraft and other machines), Liveware (human element) and the (working) environment are the essentials in safe flight operations. Labelled the ‘SHELL’ concept, it was adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. (ICAO). (See Diagram 01)
In diagram 01, two ‘L’s depict the ‘Liveware’, inside and outside an aircraft flightdeck. The ‘L’ at the centre is the pilot in command (PIC), who should know his/her strengths and weaknesses, know the same of his/her crew, aircraft, and their mission, and, above all, be continuously evaluating the risks.
Finally, Prof. James Reason proposed the Swiss Cheese Theory of Accident Causation. (See Diagram 02)
From this diagram we see that built in defences in a system are like slices of Swiss cheese. There are pre-existing holes at random which, unfortunately, may align and allow the crew at the ‘sharp end’ to carry out a procedure unchecked.
Although it is easy and self-satisfying to blame a crew, or an individual, at an official accident investigation, what should be asked, instead, is why or how the system failed them? Furthermore, a ‘just culture’ must prevail.
The PIC and crew are the last line of defence in air safety and accident prevention. (See Diagram 3)
A daily newspaper reported that it is now left to be seen whether the crash on 21 March was due to mechanical failure or pilot error. Why is it that when a judge makes a wrong judgement it is termed ‘Miscarriage of Justice’ or when a Surgeon loses a patient on the operating table it is ‘Surgical Misadventure’, but when a pilot makes an honest error, it is called ‘Pilot Error’? I believe it should be termed ‘Human Condition’.
Even before the accident investigation had started, on 23 March, 2025, Minister of Civil Aviation, Bimal Ratnayake, went on record saying that the Ministry of Defence had told him the accident was due to an ‘athweradda’ (error). This kind of premature declaration is a definite ‘no-no’ and breach of protocol. The Minister should not be pre-empting the accident enquiry’s findings and commenting on a subject not under his purview. Everyone concerned should wait for the accident report from the SLAF expert panel before commenting.
God bless the PIC and crew!
– Ad Astrian
Yes, it’s happening tomorrow, Friday (28th), and Saturday (29th,) and what makes this scene extra special is that you don’t need to rush and pack your travelling bags and fork out a tidy sum for your airfare to Thailand.
The Thai Street Food Festival, taking place at Siam Nivasa, 43, Dr. CWW Kannangara Mawatha, Colombo 7, will not only give you a taste of Thai delicacies but also Thai culture, Thai music, and Thai dancing.
This event is being organised by the Thai Community, in Sri Lanka, in collaboration with the Royal Thai Embassy in Colombo.
The Thai Community has been very active and they make every effort to promote Amazing Thailand, to Sri Lankans, in every possible way they can.
Regarding the happening, taking place tomorrow, and on Saturday, they say they are thrilled to give Sri Lankans the vibrant Thai Street Food Festival.
Explaining how Thai souvenirs are turned out
I’m told that his event is part of a series of activities, put together by the Royal Thai Embassy, to commemorate 70 years of diplomatic relations between Thailand and Sri Lanka.
At the Thai Street Food Festival, starting at 5.00 pm., you could immerse yourself in lively Thai culture, savour delicious Thai dishes, prepared by Colombo’s top-notch restaurants, enjoy live music, captivate dance performances, and explore Thai Community members offering a feast of food and beverages … all connected with Amazing Thailand.
Some of the EXCO members of the Thai Community, in Sri Lanka,
with the Ambassador for Thailand
I’m sure most of my readers would have been to Thailand (I’ve been there 24 times) and experienced what Amazing Thailand has to offer visitors … cultural richness, culinary delights and unique experiences.
Well, if you haven’t been to Thailand, as yet, this is the opportunity for you to experience a little bit of Thailand … right here in Colombo; and for those who have experienced the real Thailand, the Thai Street Food Festival will bring back those happy times … all over again!
Remember, ENTRANCE IS FREE.
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