The Central Bank of Sri Lanka maintains policy interest rates at their current levels
Monetary Policy Review: No. 08 – November 2021
The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 24 November 2021, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 5.00 per cent and 6.00 per cent, respectively. The Board arrived at this decision after carefully considering the macroeconomic conditions and expected developments on the domestic and global fronts. The Board noted the recent acceleration of inflation, driven mainly by supply disruptions and the surge in global commodity prices, and reiterated its commitment to maintaining inflation at the targeted levels over the medium term with appropriate measures, while supporting the economy to reach its potential in the period ahead.
The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering The Sri Lankan economy witnessed a strong recovery during the first half of 2021, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. The re-emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant disturbances to production activities appear to have affected the ongoing recovery somewhat during the third quarter of 2021. However, the available high frequency indicators suggest that economic activity is fast returning to normalcy. The removal of COVID-19 related lockdown measures in October 2021 and the successful nationwide COVID-19 vaccine rollout would help activity in the period ahead. While real GDP growth is projected at around 5 per cent in 2021, the ongoing rise in COVID-19 infections both globally and domestically could impact this expectation to some extent.
The external sector remains resilient against strong headwinds Earnings from merchandise exports remained robust, recording over US dollars 1 billion for the fourth consecutive month in September 2021. Preliminary data show that merchandise exports have recorded an all time high in October 2021. Expenditure on imports also increased, widening the trade deficit during the nine months ending September 2021 over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The tourism sector has displayed strong signs of revival with the easing of restrictions. Despite subdued inflows on account of workers’ remittances in recent months, a rebound is expected in the period ahead with the continuous rise in worker migration and efforts taken to facilitate remittance flows through formal channels.
The depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee against the US dollar is recorded at 7.2 per cent thus far in 2021. The exchange rate has remained stable at around Rs.200-203 levels against the US dollar during the past three months. Meanwhile, gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 2.3 billion by end October 2021. This, however, does not include the bilateral currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) of CNY 10 billion (equivalent to approximately US dollars 1.5 billion). Moreover, measures taken by the Government and the Central Bank to attract fresh forex inflows, as well as the anticipated inflows to the private sector, including the financial sector, are expected to augment gross official reserves, thereby strengthening the external sector in the period ahead. Specifically, a greater conversion of export proceeds is observed, while negotiations with the foreign counterparts of the Government and the Central Bank are progressing, broadly in line with the path envisaged in the Six-Month Road Map.
Market interest rates have increased, reflecting the passthrough of tight monetary conditions In response to the tight monetary and liquidity conditions, most market lending rates have adjusted upwards. Yields on government securities, which increased notably, have stabilised with enhanced subscriptions at primary auctions, reflecting improved market sentiments. Meanwhile, credit extended to the private sector, which expanded notably underpinned by eased monetary conditions, has slowed somewhat in September 2021.
However, data for the nine months ending September 2021 indicate that credit flows, particularly to the industry and services sectors of the economy, have improved significantly, thereby supporting the revival of the economy. In the meantime, credit obtained by the public sector from the banking system, particularly net credit to the Government, continued to expand. Overall, the growth of broad money (M2b) decelerated in September 2021, commensurate with the moderation of credit to the private sector and the decline in the net foreign assets of the banking system.
Inflation accelerated recently mainly due to supply side disturbances and the surge in commodity prices internationally Supply side disruptions, removal of domestic price controls and upward adjustments to several administratively determined prices to reflect the rising global energy and other commodity prices along with the gradual firming of aggregate demand conditions, have pushed inflation above the targeted levels recently. A further acceleration of headline inflation is possible in the immediate future, although such movements are expected to be transitory. The monetary policy measures already taken by the Central Bank will help curbing excessive demand pressures and preventing the buildup of adverse inflation expectations.
Policy rates are maintained
at current levels
In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments as highlighted above, the Monetary Board was of the view that the current policy interest rates are appropriate. Nevertheless, the Central Bank will remain vigilant and continue monitoring domestic and global macroeconomic and financial market developments and will take appropriate measures, as and when necessary, with the aim of ensuring stability in the external sector, maintaining inflation in the desired range, and supporting sustained economic recovery.
A 12-year journey creating sustainable livelihoods in the Northern Province – ILO Knowledge Forum
International Labour Organization (ILO), successfully conducted a two-day knowledge forum, based on its flagship Local Empowerment through Economic Development and Reconciliation (LEED+) project. Implemented in several districts in the Northern Province, the LEED+ project is nearing its closure after two successful phases, the first of which was initiated in 2011.
This Knowledge Forum is a culmination of the project’s 12-year journey of creating inclusive and sustainable decent work opportunities for rural communities. The project also has a strong focus on vulnerable groups, including women and persons with disabilities.
A part of the ILO’s Global Jobs for Peace and Resilience programme, LEED+ is supported by the Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and the Government of Norway. The project was implemented in collaboration with national and sub-national government stakeholders, private sector, as well as grassroots entities.
‘The LEED+ program has directly benefitted more than 43,000 families over the past 12 years providing skills and knowledge to foster business growth and generate sustainable income,’ Australian High Commission Sri Lanka, First Secretary, Development Cooperation, Erika Seymour said.
‘Despite the passage of more than a decade since the conclusion of the civil war, the lasting repercussions continue to affect communities in the Northern Province. Thus, it is crucial for collaborative efforts between the public and private sectors to support these communities and promote development in these regions. The LEED+ project has played a significant role in equipping individuals from these communities with valuable skills, empowering them in their pursuits, and facilitating the attraction of private sector investments’. Commented Royal Norwegian Embassy Sri Lanka, First Secretary/Deputy Head of Mission, Hilde Berg Hansen.
As a result of the 30-year civil conflict, the Northern Province of Sri Lanka, which is home to over a million people, has encountered unique obstacles in achieving socio-economic progress and advancement. With unemployment and poverty rates higher than the national average and the highest share of households in poverty, the Northern Province is among Sri Lanka’s poorest regions. Towards addressing this, in its first phase the LEED project utilized a strategy of revitalizing the northern cooperative sector, alongside connecting small-scale farmers and fishers in the region with businesses from across Sri Lanka. Building on the lessons and success from phase one, in its second phase LEED+ placed greater focus on facilitating partnerships in select agriculture and fisheries value chains. Generating economic incentives for both producers and investors on equal terms, the resulting win-win situations have seen companies expanding their footprint, and setting-up of processing centres in the North, thereby creating further employment opportunities.
As the LEED+ project enters its last year of operation, it aims to implement exit strategies that involve institutionalizing successful models to ensure their continued expansion even after the project concludes. By embracing the LEED+ approach and inclusive business models, the project has fostered public-private partnerships to stimulate promising value chains, ultimately contributing to the long-term employment, productivity, and economic growth of rural communities. Through collaborations with the private sector, the project has identified potential value chains relevant to the region, paving the way for increased investments in the Northern Province.
Simrin Singh, Director of ILO Country Office for Sri Lanka and the Maldives stated ‘For over a decade, the LEED and LEED+ project has implemented strategies centered on improving livelihoods and job creation. The project has remained agile, innovative, and grounded on the realities of the region. Its success, in capacitating the Cooperatives, and creating links between producers in the North and the private sector, has delivered short term wins, but also presented long-term solutions. By creating an eco-system of necessary support services, knowledge inputs, and market linkages, decent work opportunities for women and men will continue to be generated. Essentially, the ILO’s role has been to plant the seed, facilitating and building opportunities that connect businesses to communities, so that everyone can share the gains of growth and ultimately no one is left behind.’
Based on the well tested solutions from over a decade of LEED and LEED+ implementation in the Northern Province, the ILO has made a clear human centered, economic and business case for development policies that prioritize addressing regional disparities, and adaptable approaches tailored to the distinct requirements of various sectors and regions.
SL to have positive growth in third and fourth quarters of 2023– CBSL Governor
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
The country will have positive growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year and as a result the projected negative growth this year will be closer to zero, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
‘We have decided to relax monetary policies and reduce policy interest rates, aiming to gradually ease inflationary pressures and aid in the recovery of the economy. We hope to bring inflation down to a single digit by the end of July, Dr Weerasinghe said at the CBSL’s monetary policy review meeting held at the Central Bank auditorium yesterday.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Faster than expected deceleration of inflation and the resulting benign inflation outlook, are some of the factors which contributed to the relaxing monetary policy stance.
‘Inflation is projected to decelerate notably in the period ahead, reaching single digit levels earlier than expected. Headline inflation is forecast to reach single digit levels in early Q3-2023 and stabilize around mid-single digit levels over the medium term.
‘Accordingly, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on May 31, 2023, decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 250 basis points to 13.00 percent and 14.00 percent, respectively.
‘The commencing of such monetary easing is expected to provide an impetus to the economy to rebound from the historic contraction of activity witnessed in 2022, while easing pressures in the financial markets.
‘The external sector, which underwent an unprecedented setback in 2022, begins to demonstrate an improved performance. The downward adjustment in market interest rates will accelerate in line with the envisaged single digit inflation, thereby supporting credit to the private sector and softening the pressures in the financial sector.
‘Faster deceleration of inflation and lower probability of excessive demand pressures during the economic rebound phase creates space for a gradual policy relaxation in the period ahead.
‘The continuation of the IMF-EFF supported program, further financial assistance from international development partners, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank, and renewed investor appetite, coupled with the advances in the debt restructuring process, are expected to ease the BOP constraint significantly in the period ahead, supporting the recovery in domestic economic activity.’
Share market edges-up at mid-day in the wake of CBSL policy rate cuts
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
CSE shares edged up in mid- day trade yesterday as the Central Bank’s decision on cutting policy rates by 250 basis points lowered the rate at which liquidity is injected to markets to 14.0 percent from 16.50 percent, market analysts said.
“The overall sentiment is positive, because it was a higher than expected rate cut, which would lower its cost of debt, which would positively impact the profitability of companies, an analyst said.
Sri Lanka’s inflation in the 12-months to May 2023 has eased to 25.2 percent from 35.3 percent a month earlier, according to a revised Colombo Consumer Price Index calculated by the state statistics office. The decline in inflation and improvement in foreign reserves, along with the stabilization of the rupee against the US dollar, created positive sentiment in the CSE, market sources explained.
Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All- Share Price Index went up by 136.4 points and S and P SL20 rose by 56 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.34 billion with a single crossing. The crossing was reported in Melstacorp, which crossed 1.56 million shares to the tune of Rs 83.9 million; its shares traded at Rs 54.
In the retail market top seven companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were, JKH Rs 542 million (3.9 million shares traded), Lanka IOC Rs 58.4 million (306,000 shares traded), Expolanka Holdings Rs 47.5 million (345,000 shares traded), Access Engineer Rs 47.1 million (3.2 million shares traded), Hayleys Rs 38.1 million (558,000 shares traded), Browns Investments Rs 35.2 million (7.1 million shares traded) and Capital Alliance Rs 32.1 million (one million shares traded). During the day 46.7 million share volumes changed hands in 13000 transactions.
It is said that high net worth and institutional investor participation was noted in JKH. Mixed interest was observed in Lanka IOC, Melstacorp and Expolanka Holdings, while retail interest was noted in SMB Leasing, voting and non-voting, LOLC Finance and Browns Investments.
The Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector was the top contributor to the market turnover (due to Browns Investments and Melstacorp), while the sector index edged up by 0.06%. The share price of Browns Investments recorded a loss of 10 cents to Rs. 4.80. The share price of Melstacorp closed flat at Rs. 53.
The Capital Goods sector was the second highest contributor to the market turnover (due to JKH), while the sector index increased by 0.24%. The share price of John Keells Holdings increased by 25 cents to Rs. 136.
Lanka IOC and LOLC Finance were also included among the top turnover contributors. The share price of Lanka IOC gained Rs. 3.25 to Rs. 128.75. The share price of LOLC Finance closed flat at Rs. 4.70.Yesterday, the Central Bank’s US dollar buying rate was Rs 283.87 and the selling rate Rs 297.23. The inflation rate had come down to 33.60 percent.
Ibrahim 98 trumps Asalanka 91 as Afghanistan go 1-0 up
PM receives blessings of the Sangharaja of Thailand
PNS ‘SHAHJAHAN’ arrives at port of Colombo on official visit
‘Dates have the highest sugar content to fight Coronavirus’
Sunday Island 27 December – Headlines
#Sundayisland Sunday Island- 31 January- Headlines
Features6 days ago
An autobigraphy of a remarkable self-made billionaire
News4 days ago
Police looking for security guard of Sirisena’s brother
News7 days ago
VIPs/VVIPs now have to undergo Customs checks
Features6 days ago
Where are Sri Lanka’s economists?
Business7 days ago
President spearheads Sri Lanka’s economic revival and seeks Japanese investment
Latest News4 days ago
Jadeja’s nerveless hitting gifts Chennai Super Kings fifth IPL title
Features5 days ago
Human Rights and War Crimes : Sri Lanka’s ignorance matches that of US
News6 days ago
Lankan hospitality professional grabs top US luxury hotel job