by Chandre Dharmawardana  
chandre.dharma@yahoo.ca

Political pollsters, as well as analysts, have claimed that the up-coming presidential election is a contest among the three main contenders, Anura K. Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe. This means that any one of them is likely to poll some 30-40% of the vote, and fail to reach a 50% winning vote. Consequently, unlike in any other presidential election of the past, votes for minor candidates, as well as second and third preference votes, become a matter of critical importance.

That is, a first-preference vote for a minor candidate is NOT a wasted vote, but it can be used to convey a definitive statement of a particular political agenda and a clarion call for those who are committed to a given agenda to “not to lose faith”. This gives an opportunity for various political-activist groups to bring out minor candidates to highlight their (possibly impractical but visionary or even idiotic) agendas in the first-preference vote, and also indicate their second and third preferences where they take account of the ground realities of the actual voting situation.

So, those who want to express a specific point of view using a first-preference vote for a minor candidate SHOULD vote for that candidate who has a specific programme, while such voters MUST carefully indicate their second and third preferences (STP) so that their vote has an impact on the final outcome as this presidential election is going to depend significantly on the STPs.

A faction of the TNA, and other independent Tamil groups, have chosen ex-Batticaloa MP Packiyaselvam Ariyanethiran as a means of expressing their ultra-nationalistic concerns, rekindling old fratricidal battles among Tamils, and between Tamils and Sinhalese.  Interestingly, the Muslims have avoided this approach. Ariyanethiran is not just a minor candidate, but the candidate of the most important minority group in Sri Lanka who fought a war against a majority 10 times its size and devastated the Tamil polity in the process. He is also representative of the hawkish segments of the Tamil diaspora.  Ariyanethiran can hope to collect a few percent of the Tamil vote; but he is not there to become the President of Sri Lanka. However, he could use this opportunity to eloquently and peacefully present to the general public (especially those in the South) the full folio of the “grievances and aspirations” of the minority group that he represents.

Unfortunately, Ariyanethiran has failed to do so, not even taking advantage of a public debate to which Namal Rajapaksa, Sajith Premadasa and Dilith Jayaweera were convened for a debate on 7th September. Rohana Hettiarchchi, Executive Director of the People’s Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), confirmed that candidates Sajith Premadasa (SJB), Namal Rajapaksa (SLPP), and Tamil common candidate P. Ariyanethiran had all initially committed to participating in the debate’s first phase. However, they were absent when the event commenced.

A majority of voters, who supported Gotabaya, found that they were deceived by Gotabaya’s maverick agricultural “toxin-free” policies, his Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa’s ignorance of an empty treasury, and the contradictory advice of tenderfoot Viyathmaga pandits. Some of Gotabaya’s supporters have banded together behind the entrepreneur-cum-media mogul Dilith Jayaweera. They have with them well-known highly articulate political figures like Wimal Weerawansa known for his nationalistic left-wing politics that he adroitly weaves into conspiracy theories to capture the public imagination.

Dilith Jayaweera’s media empire is there to give due publicity to his concerns that were once used by Gotabaya to capture six million votes. However, political observers claim that he is unlikely to get anything more than 3-5% of the votes. Dilith Jayaweera is in direct competition with Namal Rajapaksa for what is left of the nationalist electoral legacy of Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

So, given that Dilith Jayaweers, Namal Rajapaksa and Ariyanethiran are all going to be running campaigns that would garner only a few percent of the vote, the first objective of their campaign should be to broadcast their specific agendas to the public. In addition, they have a singular duty to orient their voters to also indicate a second or third preference as they are of crucial importance in this election. Unfortunately, minor candidates like Dilith, Namal and Ariyanethiran have not indicated to their supporters what second and third preferences should be indicated in the ballot sheets.

The responsibility of the leading candidates, AKD, SJ and RW to also instruct their supporters regarding the second and third preference is paramount in this election.   Unfortunately, they, too, have shirked their responsibility and taken up the clearly false stance that they will win hands down.

If the major contenders were to indicate second and third preferences to their supporters, it would also reduce election tensions and the possibility of violence in the wake of the election.  While the electoral campaigns so far have been peaceful, the potential of violent events is high.  Several editorials of The Island (e.g., foreboding and hope cheek by jowl, 13th Sept.; Make candidates act responsibly, 10th Sept., The Island) have highlighted the potential for violence in this critical election.  In my article entitled “Looming danger in the wake of Presidential polls” …, 12th Sept., I, too, expressed my concerns, especially because this election, unlike previous ones, is going to be determined by how second and third preferences will be counted in.

Looming danger in the wake of Presidential Poll: Is Sri Lanka ready?

The danger of violence comes both from the right-wing parties who have “their thugs” who has links with the underworld, as well as from the left parties like the NPP who have accepted the doctrine that the “end justifies the means”.  Furthermore, the country is awash with arms, some given ostensibly for “crop protection”. The Aragalaya that started off peacefully turned violent due to attacks by armed individuals who had allegedly been at a meeting at Temple Trees only hours before.  This first phase of violence was met with organised violence allegedly attributed to armed groups linked with revolutionary left-wing student organisations.  An MP was killed, houses of MPs were burnt down and armed gangs had planned to take over the Parliament.

So, the EC must take note of these additional dangers and prepare its plan B for dealing with such eventualities, even though some writers  (e.g., Ajith de Silva, The Island 13th Sept.) have “pooh poohed” these concerns as mere fear-mongering.  Let us fervently hope that it is only fear-mongering, and that the EC succeeds in conducting a peaceful election.

By M M Zuhair,
former MP

With only a few days more for the Presidential election due on 21/9, the matters that the Muslims of Sri Lanka are considering at civil society discussions and within the community as a whole, would be of immense relevance to all political and other leaders of the country.

Statistically Muslims constitute only 9.3% of the national population. They are a close second to the Sri Lankan Tamil strength of 11.1% according to the 2012 Census. The statistical difference is only 1.8% unlike the figures before the July 1983 racial riots. The anti-Tamil pogrom led to Tamils emigrating from the island in noticeably large numbers. It must be added that Tamil migration increased the statistical percentages of both Sinhala and Muslim population in the country but not their real numbers.

In terms of the real numbers who are likely to go to polls, placed at 75%, the number of votes cast by the Muslims would be around 1.2 million and Tamil votes around 1.4 million. The difference in the number of voters would be only around point 2 million or 200,000! The Upcountry Tamils, the third largest minority, who vote invariably independent of the Sri Lankan Tamils constitute 4.1% of the national population.

It has been pointed out that the majority Sinhala votes of 75% had split into four separate blocks and that it has been argued incorrectly that the minority votes can be the deciding factor, overlooking the reality that the minority votes are also divided based not only on ethno-religious differences but also on broader national and regional issues. It is in this backdrop, the significant differences in the Muslim voting patterns and what affects their decision making are being considered.

Muslims consider themselves, in terms of their role in the thirty year war, as the most patriotic amongst the minority ethno-religious communities in the island. However, within two years following the successful conclusion of the war against LTTE’s separatist struggle, the anti-Muslim hate campaigns that got launched most disturbingly from 2012, and the subsequent anti-Muslim riots from 2014 to 2018, had shocked and shaped Muslim perspectives.

The Parliamentary Select Committee on Easter Attacks and the Presidential Commission of Inquiry on the Easter Attacks attributed the hate campaigns and the anti-Muslim riots as having contributed to the despicable Easter Sunday attacks of 21/04/2019, condemned by the entire community and all others.

State sponsored Collective Punishment

The reprehensible anti-Muslim violence including attacks on over 50 mosques, which occurred during the seven years that preceded the Easter attacks of April 2019 and the State sponsored “collective punishment” of the entire community during the subsequent five years that followed it, not mentioning here the post-Easter counter attacks on the Muslims in the NC Province and attacks on another nearly 50 mosques, made the hitherto patriotic Muslims, the “second most victimised community” after the Christians, who obviously suffered the most.

The then political leaders and security establishments, as held by the Supreme Court failed to avert the attacks. On the contrary, Muslim community was “collectively punished” by the then political and security establishments for the crimes of a few criminals, disclosing thereby possible criminal intent in the then rulers’ failure, most inexplicably to avert the attacks, at a time when it was clearly preventable. These have affected the voting considerations of the Muslims.

The forthcoming elections will show that the country wants a change of government, a real democratic change that will oust the very same Cabinet of Ministers and the very same executive officials who together imposed the economic hardships and continued with the said “collective punishment”. It is the very same pohottuwa team that governed Sri Lanka under President Gotabaya Rajapakse (GR) as well as under President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW).

Some Samples of Collective Punishment

Let us see some samples of this ‘collective punishment’ imposed on the Muslim community under cover of the Easter attacks and which continued under RW and consider how the Muslims are likely to vote on 21/9.

The Muslim community was accused falsely of indoctrinating and creating extremists through service oriented Muslim civil organisations, targeting in particular the Thouheed organisations, the Thabligh movement, the Jamathe-Islami and also the alleged followers of the respected Saudi intellectual Muhammad Ibnu Abdul-Wahab in an attempt to divert attention away from the post war Islamophobic majoritarian radicals.

False accusations were also made against a number of respected global Islamic scholars without any evidence, in an attempt to hide the Western handlers of Al Qaida, Osama bin Laden and the ISIL. On the contrary no accusations or actions were taken against Sinhala extremist entities which carried out hate campaigns, organised anti-Muslim riots and attacks on Mosques.

There were no Trials at Bar or equivalent prosecutions against the majoritarian radicals, or those who failed to avert the Easter attacks while several Trials at bar were initiated against Muslim offenders under the GR and RW governments.

Many Muslim civil organisations were discriminatorily banned by Gazette notifications without calling for explanations from any of the banned organisations. Seven Sinhala extremist organisations recommended to be banned by the Presidential Commission on Easter Attacks were never banned either by the GR or RW governments.

‘Peace TV’ featuring reputed Islamic scholar Dr Zakir Naik watched by Sri Lankan Muslims and widely seen throughout the world was taken off the air, without any explanation and not restored to date.

A non–Muslim female with no knowledge of running mosques was appointed by the Wickremesinghe government as Director of the Department of Muslim Affairs!

Mosques controlled by Buddhist Affairs Minister

Buddhist Affairs Minister controlled Mosque affairs without getting the Wickremesinghe government to appoint Ministers from the respective communities, already in the Cabinet to manage the religious affairs of the respective religions!

Education Ministry stopped the distribution of examination prescribed Islamic texts for Muslim schools alleging that Islamic texts need to be revised.

Aviation Minister inaugurated a direct flight between Colombo and the Israeli administrative capital Tel Aviv in February 2024, fourth month after Israel commenced massacring Palestinians, with an average slaughter of 160 civilian Palestinians per day, in the Israeli war of destruction of the host country Palestine, now entering its 12th month.

Then Minister of Foreign Employment sent Sri Lankans to the Israeli war zone in an explicit support of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian Territory. He refused to withdraw them notwithstanding agitation against the move. When the Supreme Court removed the Minister from his membership of Parliament, President Wickremesinghe appointed the same man as his advisor on Foreign Employment, trampling over Palestinian sentiments and Muslim feelings over Islam’s third holiest Mosque ‘Al Aqsa’ in “Occupied Palestinian Territory” .

Earlier the US Ambassador to Colombo (happily) announced at a Pathfinder Foundation meeting that Sri Lanka had deployed a vessel gifted by the US to the Sri Lankan Navy to fight the Yemeni Houthis at war with Israel!

Houthi destruction if any of the Sri Lankan vessel could have led to more anti-Muslim convulsions in Sri Lanka! RW displayed no sympathy to the Palestinians facing destruction at the hands of an extremist Israeli government. On the contrary, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa courageously named Israel as a “Terrorist State”!

Religious education interfered with

The Wickremesinghe government has continued the Rajapakse initiative of interfering in the religious education in Madhrasas, in violation of both national and international laws.

In addition a consignment of ‘Holy Quran with Tamil Translation’, a reprint of an earlier edition already available in Sri Lanka, gifted from Saudi Arabia had been kept blocked by the Sri Lankan authorities, for over six months from being cleared, though there is a report that the government last week, in the midst of the Presidential election campaign, permitted the Holy Quran consignment to be cleared.

There is no point in talking about the Saudi gifted ‘Houses for the Tsunami Victims’, now over grown by a jungle of trees, rats and rabbits. GR and RW had failed the tsunami victims of the East!

Large numbers of Sri Lankan muslims have been named by the government in an UN Act list of persons on the basis of allegation without any evidence of allegedly financing Al Qaeda/ISIL. It was republished under the RW government! Do those in the then governments believe that the listed muslims or any single person therein financed the named foreign terrorist organisations?

Many other instances of harassment by the authorities, without taking prompt decisions on pending matters including in the Attorney-General’s department, can be cited. Many international human rights organisations have highlighted some of these instances of State authorities’ harassment of minorities, particularly Muslims.

Many more instances of the “collective punishment” of the community by the GR and the RW governments do exist. Notwithstanding the efforts of a few local Muslim political brokers and tender dealers, 90% of the Muslim voters will not vote for RW or NR. They do not want to live under fears of racial riots!

Muslims were revenged upon

The next President must not make the costly blunder of seeing the Muslims as evil entities! He should know that Muslims played a patriotic role during the war but were revenged upon from 2012 by Norwegian brain-washed majoritarian radicals that led to several anti-Muslim riots, attacks on over fifty Mosques and the Easter attacks! RW had no apologies for appointing a foreigner, the Norwegian LTTE- Sri Lanka broker, as his climate advisor!

The list is endless! Only pseudo-nationalists can continue to side track the plight of the Northern Muslims, all 90,000 were driven out from the North by the LTTE or the sufferings of over a thousand Muslims who were killed by the LTTE in the East, including 147 killed in Kattankudy in a single night while at night prayers in three Mosques and another 75 from Kattankudy killed at Kurukkalmadam, even while agricultural lands were forcibly taken over after killing Muslim farmers, all because Muslims did not support separatism! The reward Muslims got in return was “collective punishment” from two successive governments led by GR represented now by NR and RW!

In his editorial, ‘The art of debating without debates’ (12.09.2024) the editor of the The island in his customery style has hit the nail on the head with regard to the intentions of the NPP. Drawing attention to its Revolutionary Policy Declaration- The structure of the Economy (pp 23 and 24): “Foreign capital in every sphere shall be vested in the state without any payment of compensation. Free trade zones will be abolished ….” He raises the very valid, significant and crucial issue’ “a clarification should be sought from the JVP/NPP on the duality of socialism and capitalism it finds itself in”.

The editorial of the following day day (13.09.2024) ‘Foreboding and hope cheek by Jowl’ addresses the other significant issue which has been associated with the JVP/NPP namely- threats and violence. This matter has been further explored in an article of the same day- ‘Whither Sri Lanka: or would we have to say Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa?’ The question that ‘An old Connoisseur’ (AOC) is asking from the general populace of this country.

In the article AOC discusses the prospect of voting for Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and the JVP/NPP. AOC then invites the JVP/NPP to acknowledge their past deeds –”terrible mistakes and blunders”, apologise for these and assure the public that these will not happen in the future.

It is in fact these two elements with regard to the JVP/NPP i.e. their apparent duplicity with regard to economic policy and historical association with violence that has caused reservations in the majority from voting for the JVP/NPP. The recent episode with the band Marians and their subsequent ‘retraction ‘WhatsApp clips of the force’s rank and file supporters of the JVP/NPP making threats against their own superiors, only make the voters more wary of voting for the JVP/NPP.

As reiterated in this article by AOC, numerous previous articles, editorials and opinions, the people of this country want a ‘change’. But, not at any price. The JVP/NPP is seen as this potential ‘change’. The question is will they be able to reassure the public that they have the responsibility and capability to bring about this change?

There is no doubt that there are many, many others like AOC. In fact, in the article AOC states ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote’. Will is a future intention, not, the present intention. AOC further states that the ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’ (emphasis mine). THEN is the critical word. The JVP/NPP need to deliver on what AOC (and the rest of the country) are expecting: a categorical stand on their economic policies, taking responsibility for their past actions and a firm reassurance that such incidents will not occur under their watch in the future. It is only then that they will get the future vote.

AOC concludes, ‘All of us need to think very deeply before we exercise our much -valued franchise. Our decisions could be a harbinger of absolute disaster or a vista of an …. Let us contemplate ever so carefully and vote wisely for the sake of the country’. AOC is hoping that the JVP/NPP will step up to the task. However, when you take the two statements: ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote.” And ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’. It cannot be clearer. AOC (and the majority of the country) has no intention of voting for the JVP/NPP, unless these above-mentioned issues are addressed and sorted out.

AOC in his penultimate paragraph dismisses all the other candidates. ‘There is no point in wasting time with them as none of them will even have a ghost of a chance’. This may very well be true. However, I feel that it will be the votes for the provisional second runner-up and the rest of the also rans that will determine the fate of this country.

In order to explain/understand my theory a knowledge of how our electoral system works is required.

In our voting system for the presidential election, in the absence of a clear victor (a candidate obtaining over 50% of votes) in the first count, a provisional winner and runner-up are determined. These numbers are noted and the boxes are ‘sealed’. The second and third preferences on these ballot cards are not taken into consideration. Thereafter, the second choice of all the remaining cards are noted. If anyone of these are for the aforesaid winner or runner-up, they will be added on to that respective candidate and in these cases the third choice on these cards is immaterial.

If the second choice is not in favour of the runner-up or the winner, the process is then applied to the third choice of the remaining ballot cards. It is important to realise that in this system the value of being the second or third choice is the same, as if it were the first choice i.e. it is the total count of all the choices that matter. To illustrate this through an extreme example, candidate A gets 30% in the first count -making him the provisional winner- and Candidate D gets 5%- making him the runner up. In the second count candidate A gets 10% and candidate D gets 5%. However, in the third count candidate A gets only 5% while candidate D gets 40%. Therefore, in the final tally, candidate A gets 45% against 50% for candidate D, making candidate D the winner.

It is being argued in some quarters that the JVP/NPP will have the highest count, but it probably will not be able to secure a clear majority in the first round. So, let us take a scenario – in keeping with the article by AOC- where the JVP/NPP has got 30% of the vote. The next runner up Ranil or Sajith gets 20%. There is a remaining 50% of the votes. This 50% will have a significant percentage of ‘AOC and the rest of the country’ who want the JVP/NPP to come into power, only if they ‘fulfilled the asking criteria’. In the absence of the JVP/NPP ‘coming clean’ as it were, this lot would reluctantly prefer the alternative. Therefore, this 50% (or a considerable Majority of them) will vote for Ranil or Sajith in whatever order as their second and/or third choice. Even allowing for half of these votes to be spoilt, that still leaves 25%, which would come down in favour of the second runner up being the victor, be it Ranil or Sajith, in the final count.

The JVP /NPP have its work cut out. It is up to them to deliver on the expectations of the populace, in less than a week. If it does not do so and end up losing this presidential election, ironically it will be a ‘Mea maxima culpa’ on its part.

Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara