Connect with us

Opinion

That elusive scientific lockdown

Published

on

Over the past 18 months, Sri Lanka saw several lockdowns, of varying periods. Except for the very first lockdown in the initial phase of the pandemic, which came into effect during the latter part of March 2020, other ‘lockdowns’ never ended without being criticised with, regard to their value.

More recently, the word ‘scientific’ has been prefixed to the term ‘lockdown’. Hence, the concept of ‘Scientific Lockdown’ featured in more recent discussions. Therefore, it is worth looking at the feasibility of implementing so-called ‘perfect’ 100% scientific lockdowns. The all-important question is: Is it practically possible to have the ‘perfect scientific lockdown’ to the satisfaction of all concerned?

Despite being in a lockdown state, the country needs all essential services to be carried out (health services, food production and distribution, maintenance of law and order including judicial work, national security, etc.). Further, the maintenance of electric supply, water supply and attending to its urgent breakdowns, fuel distribution, activities in ports, bank services, cleaning services, etc. are not less important. Even to work on a shift basis, one can understand that any country needs a significant workforce to carry out such a huge quantum of work on a daily basis, endlessly. In order to look after the essential needs of this workforce (e.g. their transport, food, health, welfare etc.), the country has to be active and as a result, it will invariably create a lot of human activity.

Hence, it is quite understandable that a ‘perfect’ curtailment of human activity is never achievable. In this difficult endeavour, responsible public/community behaviour is extremely important, by way of adhering to essential basic health advice. People are always trying to find out reasons and excuses to go out of their homes for non-essential matters, instead of staying at their homes. Hence, it gives the impression that in spite of all these Covid deaths around us, people still do not seem to have taken the matter in due seriousness. In fact, it is a common feature worldwide (I must appreciate the fact that given the circumstances, the behaviour of our people is better than that of most ‘advanced’ countries). Perhaps, health education and messages have reached its saturation point where such methods no longer penetrate the masses.

Therefore, it is more than obvious that like in any country, the Ministry of Health and allied services or the government alone cannot carry out preventive measures, unless the people exhibit more responsible behaviour and commitment.

Exposure load factor: Similar to the virus load in a patient, the exposure load can also be worked out. For example, when a 1000 people are exposed to five hours of a high degree of human activity in a city, it will result in 5000 hours of exposure load. But, if 100 people are exposed to 5 hours of the same degree of human activity, it will result in only 500 hours of exposure load. The group with higher exposure load has the higher probability of contracting the disease. Therefore, the enforcement of a lockdown is indeed likely to reduce the exposure load in a society.

The law of all-or-none, meaning adoption of either perfect scientific lockdown or no lockdown at all, is not acceptable, as such perfect scientific lockdowns are never achievable.

Importance of lockdowns: When a lockdown is in force, human activity becomes restricted (may not be to the desired extent), and as a result, there is always a reduction of caseload and its deaths, as we experienced in the past. This reduction, though temporary, is very important to keep the numbers of Covid patients and deaths within manageable levels for the health system and its workers. If lockdowns are not enforced, it is very likely that the numbers will increase, and peak in a short period. This is a very dangerous state; as such a situation will exceed the capacity of the health system of a country. This can lead to exhaustion of the healthcare workers and the total breakdown of the healthcare delivery system. Should it happen it can easily cause chaos and anarchy, where the revival of the system can be most challenging. Therefore, at all times every step must be taken to prevent such an eventuality.

Hence in summary, though the present lockdowns have deficiencies and shortcomings (and the fact that a perfect lockdown is not even a theoretical possibility), they are important in order to keep the health system and its workers healthy. More importantly, people should find out reasons and excuses to stay at home.

Prof ANANDA JAYASINGHE
Professor in Community Medicine
Faculty of Medicine
University of Peradeniya.



Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Opinion

HW Cave saw Nanu Oya – Nuwara rail track as “exquisite”

Published

on

Plans to resurrect the Nanu Oya – Nuwara Eliya rail track are welcome. The magnificent views from the train have been described by H W Cave in his book The Ceylon Government Railway (1910):

‘The pass by which Nuwara Eliya is reached is one of the most exquisite things in Ceylon. In traversing its length, the line makes a further ascent of one thousand feet in six miles. The curves and windings necessary to accomplish this are the most intricate on the whole railway and frequently have a radius of only eighty feet. On the right side of the deep mountain gorge we ascend amongst the tea bushes of the Edinburgh estate, and at length emerge upon a road, which the line shares with the cart traffic for about a mile. In the depths of the defile flows the Nanuoya river, foaming amongst huge boulders of rock that have descended from the sides of the mountains, and bordered by tree ferns, innumerable and brilliant trees of the primeval forest which clothe the face of the heights. In this land of no seasons their stages of growth are denoted by the varying tints of scarlet, gold, crimson, sallow green, and most strikingly of all, a rich claret colour, the chief glory of the Keena tree’.

However, as in colonial times, the railway should be available for both tourists and locals so that splendid vista can be enjoyed by all.

Dr R P Fernando
Epsom,
UK

Continue Reading

Opinion

LG polls, what a waste of money!

Published

on

If the people of this country were asked whether they want elections to the local government, majority of them would say no! How many years have elapsed since the local councils became defunct? And did not the country function without these councils that were labelled as ‘white elephants’?

If the present government’s wish is to do the will of the people, they should reconsider having local government elections. This way the government will not only save a considerable amount of money on holding elections, but also save even a greater amount by not having to maintain these local councils, which have become a bane on the country’s economy.

One would hope that the country will be able to get rid of these local councils and revert back to the days of having competent Government Agents and a team of dedicated government officials been tasked with the responsibility of attending to the needs of the people in those areas.

M. Joseph A. Nihal Perera

Continue Reading

Opinion

What not to do

Published

on

Trump and Zelensky arguing in the White House

By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

It is immaterial whether you like him or not but one thing is crystal clear; Donald Trump has shown, very clearly, who is the boss. Surely, presidents of two countries are equal; perhaps, that is the impression Volodymyr Zelensky had when he went to the White House to meet Trump but the hard reality, otherwise, would have dawned on him with his inglorious exit! True, the behaviour of President Trump and VP Vance were hardly praiseworthy but Zelensky did what exactly he should not do. Afterall, he was on a begging mission and beggars cannot be choosers! He behaved like professional beggars in Colombo who throw money back when you give a small amount!!

Despite the risk of belonging to the minority, perhaps of non-Americans, I must say that I quite like Trump and admire him as a straight-talking politician. He keeps to his words; however atrocious they sound! Unfortunately, most critics overlook the fact that what Trump is doing is exactly what he pledged during his election campaign and that the American voters elected him decisively. When he lost to Biden, all political commentators wrote him off, more so because of his refusal to admit defeat and non-condemnation of his supporters who rioted. When he announced his intention to contest, it only evoked pundits’ laughter as they concluded that the Republican Party would never nominate him. Undaunted, Trump got the party to rally round him and won a non-consecutive second term; a feat achieved only once before, by Grover Cleveland around the end of the nineteenth century. His victory, against all predictions, was more decisive as he got more collegiate votes and, even though it does not matter, won the popular vote too which he did not get when he got elected the first term. Even his bitterest critics should accept this fact.

Zelensky was elected the president of Ukraine after the elected pro-Soviet president was deposed by a ‘peoples revolution’ engineered by the EU with the support of USA. After this, the EU attempted to bring Ukraine to NATO, disregarding the Munich agreement which precipitated the Russian invasion. He should have realised that, if not for the air-defence system which Trump authorised for Ukraine during his first term, Russian invasion would have been complete. It may well be that he was not aware as when this happened Zelensky may still have been the comedian acting the part of the president! Very likely, Trump was referring to this when he accused Zelensky of being ungrateful.

Zelensky also should have remembered that he disregarded requests from Trump, after his defeat by Biden, to implicate Biden’s son in some shady deals in Ukraine and that one of the last acts of Biden was to pardon his son and grant immunity to cover the alleged period. Perhaps, actions of the European leaders who embrace him every time they see him, as a long-lost brother, and invitations to address their parliaments has induced an element of the superiority complex in Zelensky that he behaved so combative.

Trump wanted to be the mediator to stop the war and spoke to Putin first. Instead of waiting for Trump to speak to him, egged on by EU leaders Zelensky started criticising Trump for not involving him in the talks. His remark “He should be on our side” demonstrated clearly that Zelensky had not understood the role of a mediator. His lack of political experience was the major reason for the fiasco in the White House and the subsequent actions of Trump clearly showed Zelensky where he stands! PM Starmer and President Macron seem to have given some sensible advice and he seems to be eating humble pie. In the process Trump has ensured that the European nations pay for their defence than piggy-backing on the US, which I am sure would please the American voter. By the way, though Macron talks big about defence France spends less than 2% of GDP. Trump seems vindicated. Of course, Trump could be blamed for being undiplomatic but he can afford to be as he has the upper hand!

Ranil on Al Jazeera

Zelensky has shown what not to do: instead of being diplomatic being aggressive when you need favours! Meanwhile, Ranil has shown what not to do when it comes to TV interviews. God only knows who advised him, and why, for him to go ‘Head to Head’ with Mehdi Hasan on Al-Jazeera. Perhaps, he wanted to broadcast to the world that he was the saviour of Sri Lanka! The experienced politician he is, one would have expected Ranil to realise that he would be questioned about his role in making Sri Lanka bankrupt as well, in addition to raising other issues.

The interview itself was far from head to head; more likely heads to head! It turned out to be an inquisition by Tiger supporters and the only person who spoke sense being Niraj Deva, who demonstrated his maturity by being involved in British and EU politics. The worst was the compere who seems keen to listen his own voice, reminding me of a Sinhala interviewer on a YouTube channel whose interviews I have stopped watching!

Ranil claims, after the interview was broadcast, that it had been heavily edited reduced from a two-hour recording. Surely, despite whatever reason he agreed to, he should have laid ground rules. He could have insisted on unedited broadcast or his approval before broadcast, if it was edited. It was very naïve of Ranil to have walked in to a trap for no gain. Though his performance was not as bad as widely reported, he should have been more composed at the beginning as he turned out to be later. Overall, he gave another opportunity for the Tiger rump and its supporters to bash Sri Lanka, unfortunately.

Medhi Hasan should watch some of David Frost interviews, especially the one with Richard Nixon, and learn how to elicit crucial information in a gentle exploratory manner than shouting with repeated interruptions. He does not seem to think it is necessary to give time for the interviewee to respond to his questions. I will never watch Al-Jazeera’s “Head to Head” again!

Ranil’s best was his parting shot; when asked by Hasan whether he would contest the next presidential election, he said “No, I will retire and watch Al-Jazeera and hope to see you better mannered”!

Continue Reading

Trending