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SL can avert 18,000 deaths by Jan. 2022 if lockdowns are imposed: WHO experts

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The 5th Independent Expert Group Meeting, convened by WHO Sri Lanka, has said Sri Lanka will be able to avert about 18,000 deaths by Jan 2022 only if the level of stringency is immediately increased similar to May 2021, for four weeks.

The experts have said that lockdowns will give authorities time to accelerate vaccination and achieve the level of protection following the second dose of vaccines, and enable the health system to recover from the overwhelming case load.

“Immediate actions are crucial and critical because it takes a few weeks before measures show a positive impact on the number of infections and hospital admissions. Any delay in implementation will lead to an increase in deaths and will require even more stringent measures with longer duration to regain control,” they said in their report handed over to the Health Ministry on Thursday.

They also recommended the government to; 1. Strictly enforce movement restrictions, including inter-district travel except for essential services. The effective implementation of these measures may require the enforcement of a curfew for a short period, in large geographic areas or nationally.

2. Restrict /cancel all public events for 3 weeks.

3. Provide care and protect the health workers and augment staffing in hospitals to minimize disruption of essential health services.

4. Develop and implement an effective communication plan to engage the public and to update them on the control measures.

5. Accurate reporting of both cases and deaths to get a better picture of the ground situation. May also use proxy indicators such as observed Test Positivity Rate (TPR), trends measured using weekly moving averages and time series analysis, mobility data, etc.

6. Prioritize vaccinating all those over 60 years old and those with comorbidities, preferably with Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca because even a single dose of these vaccines provides some degree of protection until the second dose is given.

Below are excerpts of the recommendations of the Expert Group: “The Experts noted with great concern the current surge in COVID-19, nearly overwhelming the capacity of the health systems to provide the required adequate care for the people. The trends given below indicate that Sri Lanka could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions.

“Sri Lanka is showing a rapid increase in daily reported number of cases and deaths (111 deaths reported on 09 August 2021 representing a doubling of deaths in a short space of time).

” Bed occupancy rates at all levels of care facilities (over 85%) and ICU’s (over 90%) have increased progressively and is now in full capacity. Patients dependent on oxygen have significantly increased from 528 last week to 646 patients yesterday. If this trend continues, there is an inevitability of a serious shortage of oxygen supply and interruption of care.

“Many areas of the country show a high PCR test positivity rate of over 20%.

“As of 31 July 2021, more than 60% of sequenced samples are Delta variant, which is highly transmissible with a shorter incubation period. It is now the dominant variant in Western Province and will soon spread to other areas. Delta variant spreads rapidly as has been shown in several countries. The crisis will be magnified once Delta variant has spread countrywide because most of the other provinces are not as well vaccinated as the Western province.

” For the vaccine that is used most widely, community vaccination will take 2-3 weeks after the second dose to provide adequate protection from severe disease and death. As of 09 August, less than 15% of the population is fully vaccinated. The newly vaccinated, single-dose vaccinated or unvaccinated groups are at very high risk of severe illness and it is very likely that there will be further increase of cases and deaths, particularly in densely populated areas.

“Significant number of health workers are getting infected with a consequent pressure for curtailment and closure of services. All indications are that the “Amidst this situation, there is sustained high level of mobility and social mixing among population despite the nationwide restrictions (Oxford ‘Stringency Index’ was 85% (i.e. very effective restrictions in movement) in May, 49% in July and 29% by this week (i.e. dangerously low levels of movement restrictions).

The figure given in the Appendix and linked pdf shows a very clear inverse relationship between Sri Lanka’s stringency index value (black line) and the number of cases and deaths brown areas.”



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CEB seeking tariff hike while making huge profits, says opposition trade union leader

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Ananda Palitha

Convenor of the Samagi Joint Trade Union Alliance affiliated with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, Ananda Palitha, yesterday (16) said that the Ceylon Electricity Board was seeking to raise electricity tariffs by 13.56% percent although it had earned a profit of more than Rs 22,000 mn.

The CEB recently submitted its proposal to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) for an electricity tariff revision for the second quarter of this year – the period effective from April 1 to June 30.

Palitha alleged that the PUCSL, in spite of knowing the massive profit earned by the CEB, at the expense of the hapless public, had chosen to allow the state enterprise to propose an additional burden.

The economic, technical and safety regulator of the electricity industry, and the designated regulator for petroleum and water services industries, should exercise its powers in terms of the PUCSL Act No. 35 of 2002 and the Sri Lanka Electricity Act No. 20 of 2009 to provide relief, the veteran trade unionist said.

Palitha emphasised that the PUCSL had the right to intervene on behalf of electricity consumers but, unfortunately, chose to facilitate the CEB’s despicable strategy. “The proposal to increase tariffs by 13.56% was meant to divert attention. The real issue at hand is the percentage of electricity tariff reduction,” Palitha said. The former UNPer found fault with the Opposition for failing to expose the CEB.

Taking into consideration the Rs 22,000 millionplus profit, the PUCSL could order the CEB to grant relief to consumers, Palitha said, adding that the CEB and PUCSL, together, deprived electricity consumers tariff reduction in the first quarter of this year, too.

In January this year, the CEB asked for a 11.59% tariff increase though it was enjoying Rs 22,000 mn profit at that time, the trade unionist said.

Palitha said that as the PUCSL received all data available to the CEB it was fully aware of the finances of the state enterprise.

In January, 2025, regardless of the NPP government floating the idea regarding as much as a 37% tariff increase, the PUCSL granted a 20% tariff reduction (25% of Rs 22,000 mn profit), Palitha said.

According to him, as a result of relief granted to the consumers, the profits had been reduced to Rs 16,000 mn but by June 2025 profits had increased to Rs 18,000 mn and there was a need to grant tariff reduction. But, the NPP, having always lashed out at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the run up to the presidential election, held in September 2024, started playing a different tune.

Responding to The Island queries, Palitha said that contrary to claims that the CEB proposed a 13.56% tariff increase to cover up losses caused by the importation of low-quality coal for the Norochcholai Lakvijaya coal-fired power plant, the current strategy seemed to have been adopted at the behest of the IMF.

Instead of granting tariff reduction for the third quarter in 2025, the PUCSL ordered an 18% increase, Palitha said. The trade unionist claimed that the Finance Ministry, at the behest of the IMF, directed both the CEB and the PUCSL to increase electricity tariffs by 20% in violation of the relevant Acts, he said.

Then in Oct, 2025, the CEB proposed a 6.8 % tariff increase at a time its profits were around Rs 22,000 mn. The CEB and PUCSL staged a drama over that proposal and finally, on the false pretext of the CEB’s failure to furnish its proposal on time, the revision was dropped, Palitha said. The SJB activist pointed out that the Opposition failed to highlight that consumers had been deprived of downward revision in spite of massive profits earned by the Board. “In fact, when Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody met trade unions, he very clearly declared that they were considering electricity power reduction, perhaps by 10%, 12% or 15%. But in the end nothing happened.”

Now the same drama is being enacted by the government, the CEB and the PUCSL, Palitha said.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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BASL protest march

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BASL President Rajeev Amarasuriya addressing the media at the BASL Head Office, Colombo, yesterday (16). He demanded that the government apprehend those responsible for the killing of a lawyer and his wife at Akuregoda, close to the tri-forces headquarters on Friday (13). Pic by Nishan S. Priyantha

Members of the BASL yesterday (16) staged a protest march over the murder of a lawyer and his wife in Akuregoda, Thalangama, last week. The BASL staged a protest march from the Supreme Court Complex to the BASL Head Office.

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IMF MD here

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Kristalina

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva arrived in Colombo yesterday (16) for top level discussions with the government. She is scheduled to leave tomorrow (18) after meeting government authorities and key stakeholders, observing firsthand the impact of Cyclone Ditwah, and discussing ways in which the IMF could support recovery efforts and contribute to building a more resilient future for all Sri Lankans, sources said.

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