Pins hopes on bold moves by fiscal authorities through the Budget

By Sanath Nanayakkare

On February 14, 2025, Dr. Sumila Wanaguru, Director of International Operations at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, affirmed the Bank’s commitment to adhering to all guidelines and implementing necessary measures to maintain stable foreign reserve levels for the country. The International Operations Department, which oversees Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange operations, plays a critical role in monitoring commercial banks, intervening in markets to stabilize exchange rates, and facilitating cross-border payments. These efforts are central to ensuring the stability of Sri Lanka’s external financial system.

She gave the above affirmation in response to a question posed by The Island Financial Review whether her department could give the assurance to the people of this country that the county’s limited foreign reserves would be managed by the Central Bank prudently.

” Yes, we can assure the public that we will manage our foreign reserves prudently ensuring there is no pressure on external or internal payments,” she said when asked to elaborate on her response.

She said so at a press briefing where the Central Bank of Sri Lanka released its first Monetary Policy Report for 2025 in keeping with the requirements of the Central Bank’s mandate.

The Monetary Policy Report provides forward-looking insights about the economy, particularly in terms of inflation and economic growth. The Report also aims to provide an assessment of risks to the projections on inflation and economic growth, considering the ongoing and expected developments on domestic and global fronts. Through this Report, the Central Bank strives to improve transparency and accountability by communicating the rationale behind its recent monetary policy decisions.

The key highlights of the report are as follows

• The monetary policy stance was further eased in late 2024, while the accommodative monetary policy stance continued into January 2025

• The Central Bank implemented a single policy interest rate mechanism introducing the Overnight Policy Rate as the primary monetary policy tool

• Headline inflation (year-on-year) remained in the negative territory since September 2024 mainly due to significant reductions in energy prices

• Following the projected near term deflation in early 2025, headline inflation is forecast to increase and converge to the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term

• Economic activity continued its recovery in 2024, supported by eased monetary conditions and improving investor confidence.

• With the effective implementation of necessary structural reforms and growth oriented policies, the growth momentum of the economy is expected to continue

Based on leading economic indicators, survey findings, and staff evaluations, real GDP growth in Q4-2024 is expected to be robust. Accordingly, the annual economic growth for 2024 is projected to be around 5 per cent.

It is noteworthy the Central Bank clearly stated at the press briefing that in the post-debt restructuring scenario, the ongoing fiscal consolidation measures, in line with the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs to be pursued as there is no room for any deviations from the current fiscal path.

“The Government has promised numerous growth-oriented policies, which are yet to be formalized through the Budget. If these policies are implemented effectively as planned, they could support the corresponding sectors directly, while possible improvements in the doing business environment and governance would help enhance the growth potential of the economy,” the Central Bank said.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Sri Lanka, a founding member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), has received cumulative loans and technical assistance totaling US$12.6 billion between 1966 and 2024, And the Bank identifies Sri Lanka as the largest recipient of ADB infrastructure support among developing countries.

Currently, the ADB’s active sovereign lending portfolio for Sri Lanka stands at 4 billion, with an indicative financing pipeline of $900 million estimated for 2025, pending government confirmation.

These funds have been instrumental in developing key sectors such as agriculture, natural resources, rural development, roads, water and urban infrastructure, public sector management, finance, education, health, transport, and energy including the most important policy-based budget support.

The ongoing $4 billion portfolio is being utilized across 27 projects, comprising 36 loans and 4 grants. The allocation includes:

Transport: $859 million

Energy: $869 million

Water and Urban Infrastructure: $393 million

Public Sector Management and Finance: $669 million

Education and Health: $823 million

Agriculture and Rural Development: $422 million

The proposed $900 million pipeline for 2025, subject to government approval, will target six sectors: macroeconomic stability, power, agriculture, finance, tourism, and skills development. Funding will be delivered through policy-based loans, results-based lending, investment projects, and technical assistance initiatives.

The ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy for 2024-2028 emphasizes strengthening public financial management, governance, domestic resource mobilization, and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. Key areas include enhancing transparency, governance, competition policy, and climate change and disaster risk management.

Sectoral Allocation of Cumulative ADB Support (1966-2024)

Transport: 26%

Energy: 14%

Finance: 15%

Human Development: 13%

Agriculture: 12%

Urban Development: 11%

Public Sector: 6%

Industry and Trade: 2%

Multisector: 1%

ADB Country Director Takafumi Kadono and Country Operations Head Cholpon Mambetova announced these figures during a media briefing in Colombo on February 13, 2025. Kadono emphasized that ADB’s support was tailored to Sri Lanka’s needs, particularly during periods when access to capital markets or other lending institutions were minimal.

“We provide policy-based budget support to ensure structural and policy reforms are implemented, addressing underlying weaknesses and fostering sustainable, inclusive growth,” Kadono said. He added that ADB-funded projects undergo rigorous due diligence and are prioritized based on necessity, ensuring they address critical needs rather than being merely “nice to have.”

Mambetova highlighted Sri Lanka’s status as the largest recipient of ADB infrastructure support among developing countries, with 26% of the total loan portfolio allocated to the transport sector. She noted the ongoing construction of the elevated highway between the New Kelani Bridge and Galle Face in central Colombo, which will extend the expressway network into the city center and port. “This vital infrastructure project is nearing completion and will soon be inaugurated,” she said.

Discussions are underway with the Sri Lankan government to finalize the 2025-2028 project pipeline during the Country Programming Mission in March. The ADB will continue to support investment projects and provide technical assistance grants to strengthen government institutions, enhance capacity development, and conduct analytical research.

Sri Lanka’s partnership with the ADB remains a cornerstone of its development strategy, ensuring critical investments in infrastructure, governance, and sustainable growth.

ADB and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Sri Lanka have come together to support the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery and Corruption (CIABOC) on select Anti-Corruption Initiatives in Sri Lanka.

“The response to people’s aspirations for better governance and rooting out corruption requires political will, strong partnerships, and unwavering commitment from all stakeholders working on Sri Lanka’s recovery and sustained development,” the two senior ADB representatives said.

The Hayleys Group maintained its strong growth momentum during the first nine months of the financial year ending 31st March 2025, recording a 53% y-o-y increase in Profit Before Tax to Rs. 22.52 bn.

Performance was upheld by improvements in the core results of several key verticals as the Group leveraged its diversity to remain resilient to external challenges as well as ongoing focus on operating efficiencies and effective management of finance costs. Meanwhile, the Group recorded a 29% y-o-y increase in Profit Before Tax to Rs. 9.79 bn during the 3rd quarter of the year.

While the strong financial performance underscores the Group’s continued commitment to shareholder value creation, Hayleys also remained steadfast in fulfilling its corporate purpose through an unwavering focus on triple bottom line value creation.

The Group’s Consolidated Revenue increased by 12% to Rs. 363.54 bn during the period, fueled by growth in Transportation & Logistics, Consumer & Retail, and Projects & Engineering as the Group leveraged its strong market positions to capitalise on the more conducive operating conditions.

The Group’s export-oriented sectors recorded an 8% y-o-y growth in foreign exchange earnings to nearly USD 660 million, supported by a continued focus on driving contributions from value-added products and increasing geographical diversity.

The focus on productivity and digitalisation resulted in 11% and 16% increase in Consolidated Gross Profit and Consolidated Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) respectively. The Group’s EBIT amounted to Rs. 32.58 bn during the 9 months, while Consolidated Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) was Rs. 41.36 bn during the period.