Features
Re-infections with Covid-19:
Are they distinct possibilities?
The headline of this article appeared with a different column yesterday due to a technical problem. We apologise to our readers for the inadvertent error – Editor
By Dr.B. J. C. Perera,Specialist Consultant Paediatrician
There has been considerable debate on whether reinfections implying repeated infections with the virus SARS-CoV-2 that causes the COVID-19 disease was occurring and whether such occurrences were even possible. A reinfection is a second, third or any subsequent infection with the same virus once a person has recovered from an initial index infection. Unscrambling of those contentions were obviously extremely important from public health as well as curative health perspectives. In the not too distant past, there were some suspicious cases of possible reinfections in other parts of the world but whether those were due to a persistence of the virus in the individual, reactivation of the same illness after some time in the person or whether these were due to new second infections could not be scientifically proven with certainty. Various types of conjectures and assumptions were quite rife in the face of the ambiguity of details on the topic of reinfections.
In the human health scenario, some viruses like measles or chicken pox viruses generate virtually life-long immunity and resistance to reinfections. Second infections with these viruses are extremely rare and are almost unheard of. In the other extreme, there are viruses like those that cause the common cold, with which reinfections are extremely common. There are examples of even certain other types of human coronaviruses that cause the common cold, with the propensity to cause multiple reinfections. From a public health perspective information regarding such immunological features of an infection are absolutely vital to facilitate the formulation and implementation of preventive measures.
Being able to say for sure that there is a reinfection by another strain of the same organism depends on how reliably one could say that it is not the same original index organism that is there in the second infection. It is not easy to detect alterations in the different strains of the same organism. However, a modern technological development has made this possible. It is a technique known as genome sequencing. Whole genome sequencing is the process of determining the complete sequence of the components of an organism’s genetic structure at a given time. This technique can be used to detect differences in the genetic make-up of different strains of the same organism. When an organism undergoes any form of mutation, the new mutant will have some differences in the genome from the original index strain.
There is now convincing evidence for at least two cases, one from Hong Kong and the other from the USA, of well-documented human reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 virus. These case reports invariably generate certain questions about how commonly reinfection may occur. The cases described here have different characteristics in terms of viral genetics, timeline of reinfection and the severity of the disease. Although we can learn quite a few things from the characteristics of these two cases, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the clinical and public health implications of these findings.
On August 24, researchers in Hong Kong announced the first confirmed instance of human reinfection with SARS-CoV-2. It was a 33-year-old otherwise healthy man living in Hong Kong who developed three days of respiratory symptoms and was diagnosed with COVID-19 on 26th March 2020. Following recovery, he was later PCR tested twice more for SARS-CoV-2 and both tests were negative. On 15th August 2020, he was tested for SARS-CoV-2 again as a part of re-entry screening when he returned to Hong Kong from Europe. That test result was positive. He had no symptoms at the time of the second positive result. Genome sequencing revealed that the viruses isolated in March and in August were from different genetic groups, leading the study authors to conclude that the patient had been infected twice.
In the second case, a 25-year-old otherwise healthy man living in Nevada, USA, developed a respiratory viral infection and was diagnosed with COVID-19 on 18th April 2020. The patient recovered and two PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 performed in May were negative. Then at the end of May, the patient again developed respiratory symptoms and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in early June 2020. Genomic sequencing revealed that the viral isolates showed a number of genetic differences between the isolates. The authors of that report concluded that based on the degrees of genetic differences between the two isolates, these were two distinct infections.
There have also been recent news reports of one case of reinfection in Belgium and one in the Netherlands, diagnosed using genome sequencing, but the scientific details of those cases were not available at the time of writing this article.
What makes these reports of reinfection different from previous reports? There have been numerous reports of patients with possible reinfection prior to this one. In April, it was reported that hundreds of people in South Korea who had recovered from COVID-19 and were retested for SARS-CoV-2, had tested positive upon retesting. To help determine whether the patients in South Korea had indeed been reinfected and if they could transmit the virus, researchers attempted to culture SARS-CoV-2 from retest samples and traced the close contacts of those with positive retest results. The virus could not be cultured and there were no confirmed COVID-19 cases among contacts, suggesting that the detected virus was not alive. It was therefore thought that what was observed in South Korea was prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2, a phenomenon that is now well recognised.
The best way to establish proof of reinfection is to perform genome sequencing. The technique determines the order of chemical building blocks that comprise the genetic code of an organism. Although the genomes of different SARS-CoV-2 individual virus particles are very similar to each other and hence identified as SARS-CoV-2 and not as other viruses, some differences do occur. Those differences develop through mutations, or the substitution of one chemical building block for another, as genome copies are made. Mutations may be inherited by the next generation of virus particles, resulting in viral evolution as they accumulate over time. Genome sequencing can thus help to determine whether two populations of SARS-CoV-2 evolved separately from each other or whether one gave rise to the other. This principle can be applied to virus samples obtained from a single person at two different times.
Thousands of genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from all over the world have been published in on-line databases. Comparison and analysis of these sequences has resulted in the characterization of several clades. A clade is a group of organisms that can be traced to a common ancestor and all common descendants. These clades of SARS-CoV-2 have geographic specificity in part because viral evolution has occurred after SARS-CoV-2 has been transported between continents. It has been found that viruses from one lineage, clade G, predominate in Europe and the United States, while clade L, the progenitor of clade G, predominates in Asia. In the case of the Hong Kong patient, genomic sequencing determined that the patient’s first infection was caused by a virus from clade V, while the second was caused by a virus from clade G. This strongly suggests that the patient was infected on two separate occasions, in different parts of the world.
Is the occurrence of reinfection surprising? The possibility of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 has been widely argued. Several lines of evidence have been used to contend against it. Until the announcement from Hong Kong, evidence in support of reinfection had not been published. On the other hand, the occurrence of SARS-CoV2 reinfection is not surprising, based on experience with other infectious diseases. “Sterilizing immunity,” or complete protection from infection after immunologic priming by natural infection or vaccination is often an elusive target, either because short-term immunity is not fool proof or because immunity tends to wane over time. Evidence from animal studies demonstrate the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection despite immunologic priming. If reinfection is possible, why are the first cases of this are only coming up being reported now? Will there be more cases in the future? It is possible there have been other cases of reinfection that have not been detected or convincingly investigated. In essence, public health surveillance systems are not set up to identify cases of reinfection.
Based on current information, it is difficult to predict how commonly reinfection will occur, but it is useful to explore whether features of the Hong Kong and Nevada cases make those patients’ situations more or less applicable to other patients. As for timing of reinfection, it is unclear how much the time period between infections, 4.5 months in the case of the Hong Kong patient, and six weeks in the case of the Nevada patient, may have contributed to the patients’ risks for reinfection. Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 antibodies can decline rapidly within a few weeks or months of infection but again, the role that antibodies play in immunologic protection is unclear. It is possible these patients were poorly protected against reinfection and were reinfected as soon as they were next exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Generally speaking, immunologic protection induced by natural infection or vaccination tends to wane over time. Hence the possibility that an effective COVID-19 vaccine may need to be administered repeatedly in order to maintain sufficient immunity. It is possible that as travel restrictions ease and population movement increases, exposure to SARS-CoV-2 clades that have not been previously encountered may increase the risk of reinfection. Concerns have also been expressed as to whether immune enhancement may occur for SARS-CoV-2, and in particular, if vaccination against COVID-19 could precipitate severe disease if post-vaccination infection occurs. At this time, there is no evidence from human or animal studies that SARSCoV-2 infection can precipitate immune enhancement of the disease.
Clearly a lot more scientific information is needed before tangible conclusions can be arrived at. Our perceptions on the capabilities of this blight will change over time when more and more details and research evidence is brought to light in the course of time. However, in view of the mayhem that has so far been wreaked by the virus, time is perhaps at a premium. As time is of the essence, the onus is on dedicated researchers world-wide to unravel some of these mysteries as soon as possible.
On 9 August, the Indian city of Kolkata was shaken when a trainee doctor was found raped and murdered at one of its oldest hospitals. Though an arrest was swiftly made, accusations of a cover-up and evidence-tampering quickly surfaced, fuelling public outrage. Since then, daily protests, human chains and candlelight vigils have filled Kolkata’s streets. Now, the city’s largest festival unfolds amid some of the city’s most fervent protests in years.
Kolkata is celebrating its biggest annual festival – Durga Puja, when the ten-armed Goddess Durga is said to visit her earthly home, her entire family in tow.
At Durga Puja pandals – or temporary temples – the goddess stands in the middle astride a lion, flanked by her children – elephant-headed Ganesha, warrior god Kartikeya on his peacock, the goddesses Lakshmi and Saraswati – while the defeated buffalo demon lies at her feet, symbolising the triumph of good over evil.
These days, it’s not just the gods that draw the crowds. The pandals have become quite elaborate. Some recreate landmarks like Dubai’s Burj Khalifa or the mangrove forests of Sundarbans. Others are installations with social messaging – conserve water, pray for world peace, save handicrafts.
That led to Durga Puja being billed as one of the biggest street art festivals in the world. Arts organisation Mass Art has been putting together previews of selected Pujas, especially so that foreign guests can get a sense, says its secretary, Dhrubajyoti Bose Suvo, of how a “city transforms into a public gallery”.
But this year, the largest street art event of the city has come face to face with the biggest street protests Kolkata has seen in years. Some of the idols are different, and even the artwork on the walls reflects anguish and protest with figures of women and animals rendered in stark red, black and white.
The protests broke out after the 31-year-old doctor was found brutally killed at RG Kar Medical College on the night of 9 August. After a gruelling 36-hour shift, she had fallen asleep in a seminar room due to the lack of a designated rest area. Her half-naked body, bearing severe injuries, was discovered the next morning on the podium.
“Of course there is an effect of the incident on us,” says visual artist Sanatan Dinda. “I do not paint inside an ivory tower. I speak of the society around me in my work.” Upset over the incident, Dinda resigned from a government-run arts organisation. He says, “Now I am on the streets with everyone else. Now I have no fear.”
In September, Dinda and the clay artists who built the Durga images in the historic artisan neighbourhood of Kumartuli led a protest march demanding justice for the woman they called “our Durga”.
Dinda says he has made “improvisations” to the Durga images he was working on this year.
At one in Bagha Jatin in south Kolkata, his mother Goddess looks more fierce than maternal. The lion she normally rides is springing out of her chest. Each of her ten arms holds a spear to slay evil. The artwork on the walls reflects anguish and protest with figures of naked women and animals rendered in stark red, black and white.
Art as protest is not new.
Jean-Michel Basquiat’s Defacement, commemorating the 1983 police killing of a man allegedly writing graffiti in the New York subway, found renewed relevance during the Black Lives Matter movement. Public artists like Jenny Holzer, Keith Haring, Diego Rivera, and Banksy – whose stencils span walls from Kyiv to the West Bank – have long used art to deliver political messages.
Durga Puja art is public art, but it’s also central to a religious festival that fuels the state’s economy. A British Council report valued Durga Puja’s 2019 economic impact at over $4.5bn, nearly 3% of West Bengal state’s GDP.
With so much at stake, neighbourhood clubs organising pujas have to tread warily. They cannot alienate thousands of ordinary citizens looking for a good time, not a sermon. They get financial grants from the government that’s facing the protests. They have to work with the police on permits and traffic control.
A few have opted to forego taking money from the government.
One puja in Kankurgachi, in the northeastern side of the city, chose Lajja (Shame) as its theme after the protests erupted. Its Durga is covering her eyes, her lion keeping vigil over the body of a woman wrapped in a white sheet. The organiser is openly affiliated with the state’s opposition party.
Close by, another puja creates a tableau of the bereaved family, the mother sitting on the bed, the father at a sewing machine, their daughter’s picture in doctor’s scrubs on the wall. Other organisers are more circumspect, not wanting to wade into political waters.
“But we still want to make a point, especially as a women-led women-run club,” says Mousumi Dutta, president of the Arjunpur Amra Sabai Club.
Their theme this year is Discrimination. The artist uses the Constitution of India and its articles promising equality as the backdrop to the goddess while local actors enact the gap between the promise of the Constitution and reality through street theatre.
The theme had been decided earlier but the tragedy gave it a different urgency. “We have decided to not call this year’s Durga Puja a festival,” says Dutta. “We are calling it a pledge instead. A pledge to create a world where we won’t have to keep coming out on to the streets to demand justice.”
The demand for justice for a woman resonates with Durga Puja anyway, a festival built around a goddess vanquishing evil. One puja had already chosen women power as its theme which now matches the zeitgeist.
Durga puja theme designers say they were already neck-deep in work when the protests erupted.
“Perhaps if it had happened earlier it would have been different. By August I was committed to the organisers and to some 450 people working with me,” says Susanta Shibani Pal. But he says the issue “subconsciously” crept into the art.
His installation Biheen (The Void) for the Tala Prattoy puja, covers 35,000 sq ft, immersing the viewer into what he calls a “black hole”.
His Durga has no body, her life force represented by a flickering candle, much like the candles that are part of the protests. “A viewer might read this as my protest. I might call it coincidence. I started this work before RG Kar happened,” he said.
While some are bringing the mood of protest into their Durga Puja art, others are bringing protest art to their Durga Puja. Chandreyee Chatterjee’s family has been celebrating Durga Puja at their home in Kolkata for 16 years. Chatterjee also participated in many of the street protests.
She admits she was in no mood to celebrate this year. They will still have a Durga Puja but with a difference. “We will do what the rituals require, nothing more. Anything that comes under the heading of celebration, like dancing, is being done away with this year.”
She and her friends have also had an artistic little badge made. It shows a hand grasping a flaming torch. Underneath in Bengali are the words “We want justice.”
“I will be giving it to friends and family who come to our Puja,” says Chatterjee. “We want to remind people we have a long long way to go.”
[BBC]
Things are moving forward in the right direction under the interim triumvirate Cabinet of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Prime Minister Amarasuriya and Minister of several ministries – Vijitha Herath. A new system is obviously set in place and we are hopeful for the future of Sri Lanka. Officials of the government have successfully negotiated with the IMF so we are safely assured of financial help. These are further loans, but we do not shiver as we did under previous regimes because repayment had to be done and we lacked faith in those previous regimes.
Why can this renewed faith be repaid in due course? Because the most damning curse that throttled the country is to be curtailed and eliminated– corruption that syphoned off millions to private pockets. Cass remembers jubilation when the first IMF tranche was given SL. It was like a gift being given, forgetting that it was a further loan to be repaid. No such nonsensical celebration this time.
One warning that wiser counsel gives is hemin, hemin. Many shout for quick action from outside and within the JVP, too. People are asking for this and that and mostly that the corrupt be caught and punished. There is time for that. First priority is to improve the economy of the country. We have confidence in the new President that he will set priorities in government action and will see they are followed.
Interview with NPPer
Much of the caution Cass advocates in her previous paragraphs was pronounced loud, clear and authoritatively by the NPP Executive Committee member Attorney-at-Law Harshana Nanayakkara in an interview with Alanki on the Conversation talk show. Its subject of discussion was the immediate future after the general elections, in particular the law and order policies and action taken or proposed. Harshana was very vocal as he usually is and spoke clearly, precisely and very convincingly, Cass opines.
The first criminal incident discussed was the bond scam; next was the Easter Sunday attack. The interviewer then moved to the subjects: abolition of the Presidency; new Constitution and position of women and children. In the first two undertakings, the question asked by the public is how soon will the corrupt be exposed and punished. This was Alanki’s tag to most of her questions
Harshana’s replies were minus rhetoric, instead sensible and to be approved of by the wise, mature and staid citizens of the country. Firebrands and youth in a hurry to witness punishment were told in no uncertain terms that all the above takes time; that the new government will not rush into matters, particularly ‘catching rogues’ and meting out punishment. Harshana made it very clear that each case will be studied very carefully and action will be taken. He said that most financial crimes are committed 100% cautiously and cleverly, with no trails left, but ‘crumbs’ may be lying around.
These can be picked up and worked on by very smart and trained sleuths, given complete freedom to get on with their work, especially political or ‘high-up’ pressure. However, he judiciously noted that even suspected criminals, if law and justice cannot prove them guilty, will go free.
He gave the assurance that the arms of law and judiciary will be given independence and freedom to work with no governmental interference, least of all influence. Another fact he emphasised was that no timeline nor time of accomplishing such undertakings could be given. However, results will be given before the five years of the NPP government are over; more so closure to the Easter tragedy.
Corruption, he made clear, calls for elimination but alongside prevention is important. To ensure the latter he said one method was to reduce interaction of government officials and members of the public. This to be achieved by increased digital services and more transactions between the public and government officials to be on-line. Institutions will be made accountable. He also noted that checks and balances were required.
He mentioned we have 21 amendments to the Constitution. A new one will be placed before the country. Work had already been started by previous governments but they lacked the will to complete the job. The NPP government would achieve this, since committees are already working on it.
Thus, the abolition of the post of president. Cass’ gut feeling is that the majority of Sri Lankans want this and a return to parliamentary system as pre-1977. Cass’ additional other personal gut feeling is that the presidency should be eliminated after Prez AKD’s term or just before it ends. We need a sole leader to control and further the good policies outlined.
What was mentioned was that women’s and children’s issues, which differ, will be given consideration and corrections made. Idea is for 50% representation in government and other institutions by women. Awareness creation and education were still necessary to bring about gender equality. Policies would be outlined and implemented and antiquated laws be abolished or revised to create inclusive societies. However, laws alone cannot achieve equality.
Harshana mentioned that the northern issue or problem would be dealt with.
However, it is hoped that the NPP will not receive a 2/3 majority in Parliament. That is not at all healthy and has proved to be disastrous in Sri Lankan politics. A hope that Cass harbours is that a sort of cooperative government will be the necessary outcome of the 14 Nov. general election. Twenty five Cabinet Ministers is what is stipulated by the NPP. Fine. Hope is that among them will be outstanding persons from other parties – the SJB and others. Cass bravely names two: President’s Counsel M A Sumanthiran and Attorney–at-Law Aly Sabry who have proved to be highly competent and country-loyal politicians sans racial and religious biases.
Exposes
MTV Channel 1 is telecasting a programme on corruption in Sri Lanka. The series is titled, “What happened to Sri Lanka” and we have been given details of the Teasury bond scams during Ranil Wickremesinghe’s premiership; Sri Lankan Airlines’ nosedive after President Mahinda Rajapaksa sacked the SriLankan Airlines CEO. It was also revealed how brother-in-law, who was SriLankan Chairman rerouted flights arbitrarily. Also documented and aired over were President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s disastrous ban on agrochemicals. Uncovered also was the import of thousands of cows to boost milk production. Instead they infected local cattle, fell sick and soon died. But, of course, some people collected huge commissions, we believe. All these were heinous ways of earning money for some. They happened during the elitist families’ regimes; the R brothers, too, considered elitist. So, having a non-elitist leader and most probably a government of the non-rich persons, we may be on a path of good governance at long last. No wonder a descendent of the truly elite – the first PM of Ceylon and Father of the Nation – voted for the NPP at the presidential election and will surely vote for NPP contenders in the forthcoming election too.
The world scene is gloomy. Two wars, one in the Middle East threatening to conflagrate due mostly to the stubbornness of Hamas and Hezbollah and of course Israeli Netanyahu, rage on. The race for the White House is still said to be neck to neck, unbelievable to us over here that Trump is still running strong against eminently suitable Kamala Harris. We turn inward from these to feel a sense of satisfaction that our bankrupt nation is being given a chance to change and be what it could and should be. So, on that hopeful note Cassandra says her goodbye for a week
by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe
parajayasinghe@gmail.com
A new Dawn
It is everyone’s hope that we could at last be moving towards a new dawn of prosperity and a future of sustainable growth in all aspects of economy and social wellbeing. With the President Anura Kumara Dissanayake leading the way. This hope is most prevalent in the energy sector, which has remained in the clutches of the fossil fuel lobby. While the transport fuels still remain near 100% dependent on imported fossil fuels, energy sources used for the generation of electricity have shown some progress in gaining none dependence on such imports using indigenous sources of renewable energy. While the present contribution of only 12% of the total energy mix by electricity may not seem significant , what is more important is to recognise that electricity being the most desired and flexible form of energy for energy sector of energy demand , projects a future of near 100% electricity based energy sector, by the optimal utilisation of our bounty of nature. Sri Lanka is blessed with renewable energy sources of magnitude which is far beyond the energy needs of the country, covering all sectors, many fold even with the projected growth over many decades,
This is even more significant is the fact that Sri Lanka has no indigenous fossil fuels, which makes it imperative that we utilise this bounty to arrest the continual drain of the valuable foreign reserves, as fast as possible. The great fortune of advances in technologies in recent years enabling the development of such renewable energy without delay should therefore take the highest priority of the new government.
The recent presidential election has brought to the sharp focus the urgency of this with the realisation that it is the present unwise dependence on imported sources of fossil fuel which is the primary reason for the fall of the previous government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the false claims of energy security claimed by the last interim government’s defeat.
The more pragmatic Vision of the New Government
The established policy of reaching a target of 70% contribution of renewable energy for electricity generation by year 2030 have been confirmed by all presidential candidates, as well as the eventual achievement of status of zero emissions by 2050. with even more focus by the NPP.
Under these circumstances, it is topical to discuss the way forward and the path that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake would choose in arriving at these targets, particularly since the portfolio of Energy is listed under his purview, which we hope he would retain after the parliamentary elections and the formation of the new cabinet of ministers.
It is therefore relevant to be reminded of the references made in the Presidential Manifesto on the energy sector., which has laid much emphasis and recognition of the bountiful renewable energy resources of Sri Lanka. The much wider relevance and the potential of such resources to play a major role in the economy beyond mere supply of energy to the other sectors of energy, is for the first time has been recognised by the policy makers. The section title of the Manifesto on energy itself highlights this recognition: 3.10 A Secured Energy Centre – A sustainable Revenue Resource”
This is further elaborated by the item listed as the “Principles”
- Energy as an essential national service
- Sustainable and secure energy supply
- Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange
While agreeing wholeheartedly to these principles as the basis for a future energy policy we would like to propose few more inalienable principles or policy imperatives to this list
- The nation’s energy resources belong to the people and the benefits of their utilisation must primarily flow to the people.
- It is no longer true that the energy sector development needs to be the purview of the large-scale entrepreneurs, either in the state or private sector, requiring very large capital investments, nor is there a need for centralised large power plants remote from load centers.
- Under no circumstances should we pay Dollars for our own RE resources.
- National Security is closely linked to national Energy Security. This can be guaranteed only by ensuring that the energy industry remains in control of the national entities both public and private.
- The main consumers of energy are electricity and transport fuels. It is imperative that any energy policy should consider at least these two in conjunction and concurrently.
- The facility of creating “Prosumers” can be the means by which the low-end consumers can be rescued from the trap of eternal poverty in spite of the many forms of state handouts which over the years have proven futile in poverty alleviation.
The Specific Activities Proposed
The proposed activities in the manifesto support the above principles and if implemented with courage and conviction with combined commitment of all the related agencies, unlike the present practice of totally disharmonious and opposing actions, the success of achieving the targets can be guaranteed.
The important message that should be brought to the attention of The President is the need to ensure no action or policy be permitted from now on that would hinder the progress or form barriers in achieving these goals. A distinct change in the attitude of the state agencies and officials is required. Hitherto that has been totally lacking with even the target of achieving the 70% RE goal not being assigned to any agency.
This is due to the unfortunate situation prevailing in the state sector of there being no sense of accountability, either mandatorily or voluntarily. The most essential and urgent change needed is to mandate the task of achieving the stated goals to particular officials in the primary agency identified as the most appropriate when many agencies are responsible. Such a mandate must flow from the Chairman downwards with measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) assigned with time targets. This is most easily done in the electricity sector immediately and the transport and other sectors of energy usage to follow without delay.
The present government has brought in a number of new appointees to head the key agencies in the energy sector. We propose that these personnel inconsideration of their past record of knowledge and experience (unlike in the past when appointments were given to friends and relatives only irrespective of their suitability) be given strict instructions with the responsibilities for achievement of set targets and to pass down such responsibilities to their staff. Gaining the support and cooperation of other related agencies and overcoming any barriers should be strictly their responsibility.
While the transport sector without any form of future vision or programmes working in total ignorance of the major changes happening in the world would be difficult to be brought to this form of sustainable and future proof status, the already established and adopted policies in the Electricity Sector and the technological advances made even in Sri Lanka provides the base line on which such time based targets can be assigned.
The current target of 70% renewable energy based power generation by 2030 has proven to be quite achievable and non-challenging based on recent experiences. In fact, this target was surpassed in some days during the latter months of 2023 as shown below. (See graph)
- The first KPI to be issued is therefore a directive to the Ceylon Electricity Board to develop a time based programme with annual targets commencing now towards progressively enhancing this RE contribution of 70% minimum by 2030. CEB must be held responsible for the achievement, for which of course they would need to get the support and assistance of the private sector developers. With the co-operation and commitment of their own staff. and facilitation the “Prosumers” themselves would reach the expected 5000 MW well before the target year 2030. (The target of 2000 MW in five years as stated is well below the potential of the local Solar Industry)
- A further commitment made by the new government is to lower the cost of electricity to the consumers. It is obvious that this could only be achieved through the rapid expansion of the contribution by the renewable energy based generation, which is now universally accepted and proven by the records of the CEB itself. Towards this task another action point in the NPP manifesto can be cited as the next KPI to be issued to the CEB. “Directing the currently oil-based electricity generation towards low-cost renewable solar and wind sources” This feasibility is illustrated below.
- The objective of lowering the cost of generation and thereby the consumer tariff would certainly not be achieved by the recent cabinet decision to reduce the Feed in Tariff for the Solar Rooftop PV, which fortunately has not been approved by the PUCSL. Each unit of Solar PV added would reduce the equivalent unit generated using oil costing at least Rs 63.00 as per data below. (See Table)
The potential saving of Rs 113.65 Billion annually could provide the means of lowering the consumer tariff by Rs 7.5 per unit on average.
Should we pursue LNG relevant anymore?
About five years ago Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) was very much in discussion as a clean fuel and a possible intermediate solution to eventually eliminate the use of Coal and Oil for power generation. Perhaps under the prevailing circumstances then, when the Renewable Energy Options such as Solar and Wind had not gained the favorable status, both of technical acceptance and financial viability, this consideration may have been correct and timely. However, a much-detailed analysis with wide stakeholder consultation is required at present before pursuing this option.
However, Sri Lanka not having any land based Natural Gas, and the challenging issue of the infrastructure required for the utilization of imported LNG for economic use needed to be evaluated in depth. This still remains unresolved. At the same time being typical of the disjointed decision-making process in Sri Lanka, the tender for the development of a 350 MW LNG power plant to operate on nonexistent LNG was awarded and the plant is nearly complete. It is reported that even in Australia with its own Natural Gas resource the cost of NG based power is reported to be exorbitant.
Under these circumstances, although listed in the Activities in the Manifesto, we propose that this issue requires a much deeper and coherent analysis and evaluation before any concrete steps are taken. It is our opinion that Sri Lanka no longer needs any imported LNG.
If we are fortunate to get funding to develop our Mannar resource viability of which is now established, it must be considered as the means of achieving the principle of v Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange But under no circumstances should we build any more LNG based power plants as listed in the current Long-Term Generation Plant and still being promoted by some with their tunnel vision.
Conclusion
It is quite obvious that Sri Lanka is at the threshold of change in all aspects. This is most essential and urgent in the Energy Sector which if handled properly would give Sri Lanka the much-needed window of opportunity for economic prosperity. It is most encouraging that the present government has clearly identified this opportunity.
This article attempts to highlight the need to be warned of many decades of vested interests by many parties, which has kept Sri Lanka over dependent on imported fossil fuels thus preventing the flow of such prosperity to the people. The danger also exists of such elements trying to propagate antiquated principles and themes, with the underlying objective of keeping Sri Lanka trapped in fossil fuels for obvious reasons.
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