Features
Putin’s last stand
by Kumar David
The title of this little essay must not be interpreted as saying that Putin is finished, dead and awaiting burial; rather it says that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in grave trouble, his military exploits in Ukraine face defeat, internal dissension at home is mounting and how long his regime will survive is an open question. It is this challenge that I intend to write about. I have taken what appears to be the most plausible and self-consistent information from international wire services and media sources and certainly not confined myself to pro-Western outlets.
The most reliable accounts surmise that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is losing ground. The slip is showing even with the Russian news agency Tass refers to Russian attacks on mainly civilian targets and reports, “According to the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) over the past week, more than 100 shelling attacks of 32 settlements in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions were recorded with the use of multiple-launch rocket systems, cannon artillery, mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles”. Other articles signifying Russian military gains can also be found on Tass, for example: “Russian air defences destroy six combat drones in Ukraine operation”; “Ukrainian garrison at Snake Island surrenders to Russian Armed Forces”; “Putin puts nuke forces on high alert; liberation of Donbass continues” etc.

Putin’s balancing act
Western media paints a gloomy picture of Russia’s military position. Independent channels Al Jazeera and Reuters give a more balanced picture. For example, “Russian forces running and panicking during eastern retreat”; “Ukrainian officials accuse retreating Russian forces of retaliatory attacks on civilian infrastructure”; “Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism”. The picture on balance is that Russian forces in the Northern, Eastern and Southern theatres, that is on all three fronts in Ukraine are retreating. The collective picture last week may be summarised as: Setbacks for Putin’s war as his troops struggle to hold off a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian military is doing badly, etc. The flurry of Russian missile strikes across civilian and military targets in Ukraine after Ukrainians crippled the strategic Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea is a sign of desperation.
The Hindustan Times (HT) on October 10 in a piece entitled “Where are the Russians dodging the draft fleeing to?” said that Kazakhstan’s interior ministry reported that 98,000 Russians had entered since September 21 the day of Putin’s military call-up announcement. Kazak President Kassym-Jomart added that the country will ensure the care and safety of Russians fleeing a “hopeless situation. HT also reports that a few days ago 5,000-6,000 (Russians) were arriving in Georgia every day and the number has now grown to 10,000 per day”. “Georgia’s interior minister Vakhtang Gomelauri says the Russia-Georgia border was backed-up with 5,500 cars waiting to enter. During the same period, 40,000 fled to Armenia”. There is no hiding the fact that hundreds of thousands of young Russians are fleeing the country to avoid the draft into a hopeless war.
However, there will a vote in favour of joining Russia in the referendum now being conducted by Moscow in the Donbass Region, in the Eastern part of the country abutting Russia – that is the Russian speaking Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. The referendum also includes two Southern provinces (Zaporizhia and Kerson) abutting Crimea where Russian speakers are just below 50%. The 90%+ vote in favour of joining Russia reported by Moscow in Donetsk and Luhansk is fabricated and imposed by intimidation; maybe it’s nearer 60-70%. However, the anger of Russian speakers in Ukraine against decades of suppression of their language (similar to the sentiments of Lankan Tamils against the language policies of the Sinhala-Buddhist state) is natural and understandable. Annexation of the two Eastern provinces will I assume be announced soon. This ups the ante because any Ukrainian or NATO action in annexed territories will thereafter be an attack on Russia itself.
Russian speakers in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk number 77.0%, 74.9% and 68.8%, respectively so it’s a foregone conclusion that the referenda in the two Donbass Region provinces will approve transfer of sovereignty to Russia. Crimea “joined” Russia in 2014. As a thought experiment imagine a Donbass-LTTE which allies itself with a Russian-(I)PKF and is unburdened by a Prabhakaran-like megalomaniac. The outcome for sure would have been far different from what happened in Lanka in the 1990s.
The picture I have painted thus far is a mixed one. Putin’s forces face military defeat at the hands of the plucky Ukrainians but to counter this he will gain a paradoxical political success by uniting the Russian speaking people of Eastern Ukraine with the “fatherland”. Nevertheless, political instability on the home front is troubling because the economy is fragile even sans sanctions, the currency is depreciating as the rouble collapses and supply chains are disrupted. Domestic opposition is mounting and moderately large public demonstrations break out from time to time against the war. Though Putin commands the support of 60-70% of the population and will win an election at this time, the same cannot be said of the war. The war is unpopular. But for NATO’s attempt to encircle and weaken Russia which outrages every Russian, a referendum to pull-out of Ukraine will succeed at this time. There are reports that in February 2022, some 30,000 technologists, 6,000 medics, 3,400 architects, 4,300 teachers, 17,000 artists, 5,000 scientists, and 2,000 actors and creative artists signed an open letter calling on Putin to stop the war.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of Putin being overthrown in a palace coup are slim unless, as sometimes happens with dictators, he loses his marbles altogether and seriously throws a nuclear punch here or there – right now he is only playing nuclear make believe. Were he to attempt to unlock the silos, he will be pushed aside in a palace coup. The military in Russia does not have the credibility or clout to seize power for itself; the replacement will have to be a political figure, Dmitry Medvedev perhaps.
Time for me to move on, but first to recap. The scenario I have painted is that Putin will suffer military defeat in Ukraine but his political gambit of annexing the Donbass will pay off. His forces will de facto (that is other than firing missiles at mainly civilian targets) be compelled to bow out of Ukraine except the Donbass region. Political opposition will keep mounting at home but he will probably remain in power, but the game on the economic front will deteriorate.
China the doughty suitor
I have for long been of the view that an isolated Russia will have to fall back on Chinese economic power as an engine of development and that China’s mighty machine will relish harnessing Russia’s vast natural resources. It will be a win-win relationship accelerated by Russian military setbacks and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.
Most people know that Russia is resource rich but not many know that it is the resource richest country in the world. Some of this is in Siberia and the Far East – a nice coincidence for China and relevant to the point of this essay. Russia has an abundance of natural gas, oil, timber and minerals: copper, zinc, bauxite, nickel, mercury, silver, manganese, chromium, platinum, titanium, tin, lead, tungsten, phosphates and diamonds. It is a world leader in both natural diamond and artificial diamond production and controls 26% of the global gem-diamond and 30% of industrial grade diamond production. Russia holds 37% of unmined gold reserves (world’s second largest) and is the world’s third largest gold producer behind China and Australia.
Russia accounts for 20% of the world’s production of oil and natural gas, holds 17 billion tons of oil – the eight largest in the world – and 48 billion cubic meters of gas reserves – the world’s largest. It also has the world’s second largest coal reserves. The iron ore deposits of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly are believed to hold one-sixth of the world’s total reserves. Abundance has made it self-sufficient in energy and a large fuel exporter. It is self-sufficient in nearly all major industrial raw materials even after Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan left the USSR. The forests of Siberia contain one-fifth of the world’s timber, mainly conifers. In fact, Russia holds the world’s largest forest reserves, 20% of the total; more than Canada or Brazil. To cap it all though much of its land is under permafrost Russia ranks third in arable land and is rising in world ranking of agricultural producers.
That’s enough data – culled from the most reliable statistical sources – to make my point which is that China’s large investable capital, immense population, technical ingenuity and skill, and Russia’s abundant natural resources can and will make a happy union one day; Putin or no-Putin, Xi Jinping or no-Xi Jinping, Ukraine or no Ukraine, Corona virus or no-Corona virus. You don’t have to be a dialectical materialist or a hard-nosed businessman to see this. How can it be otherwise?
Features
Sheer rise of Realpolitik making the world see the brink
The recent humanly costly torpedoing of an Iranian naval vessel in Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone by a US submarine has raised a number of issues of great importance to international political discourse and law that call for elucidation. It is best that enlightened commentary is brought to bear in such discussions because at present misleading and uninformed speculation on questions arising from the incident are being aired by particularly jingoistic politicians of Sri Lanka’s South which could prove deleterious.
As matters stand, there seems to be no credible evidence that the Indian state was aware of the impending torpedoing of the Iranian vessel but these acerbic-tongued politicians of Sri Lanka’s South would have the local public believe that the tragedy was triggered with India’s connivance. Likewise, India is accused of ‘embroiling’ Sri Lanka in the incident on account of seemingly having prior knowledge of it and not warning Sri Lanka about the impending disaster.
It is plain that a process is once again afoot to raise anti-India hysteria in Sri Lanka. An obligation is cast on the Sri Lankan government to ensure that incendiary speculation of the above kind is defeated and India-Sri Lanka relations are prevented from being in any way harmed. Proactive measures are needed by the Sri Lankan government and well meaning quarters to ensure that public discourse in such matters have a factual and rational basis. ‘Knowledge gaps’ could prove hazardous.
Meanwhile, there could be no doubt that Sri Lanka’s sovereignty was violated by the US because the sinking of the Iranian vessel took place in Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone. While there is no international decrying of the incident, and this is to be regretted, Sri Lanka’s helplessness and small player status would enable the US to ‘get away with it’.
Could anything be done by the international community to hold the US to account over the act of lawlessness in question? None is the answer at present. This is because in the current ‘Global Disorder’ major powers could commit the gravest international irregularities with impunity. As the threadbare cliché declares, ‘Might is Right’….. or so it seems.
Unfortunately, the UN could only merely verbally denounce any violations of International Law by the world’s foremost powers. It cannot use countervailing force against violators of the law, for example, on account of the divided nature of the UN Security Council, whose permanent members have shown incapability of seeing eye-to-eye on grave matters relating to International Law and order over the decades.
The foregoing considerations could force the conclusion on uncritical sections that Political Realism or Realpolitik has won out in the end. A basic premise of the school of thought known as Political Realism is that power or force wielded by states and international actors determine the shape, direction and substance of international relations. This school stands in marked contrast to political idealists who essentially proclaim that moral norms and values determine the nature of local and international politics.
While, British political scientist Thomas Hobbes, for instance, was a proponent of Political Realism, political idealism has its roots in the teachings of Socrates, Plato and latterly Friedrich Hegel of Germany, to name just few such notables.
On the face of it, therefore, there is no getting way from the conclusion that coercive force is the deciding factor in international politics. If this were not so, US President Donald Trump in collaboration with Israeli Rightist Premier Benjamin Natanyahu could not have wielded the ‘big stick’, so to speak, on Iran, killed its Supreme Head of State, terrorized the Iranian public and gone ‘scot-free’. That is, currently, the US’ impunity seems to be limitless.
Moreover, the evidence is that the Western bloc is reuniting in the face of Iran’s threats to stymie the flow of oil from West Asia to the rest of the world. The recent G7 summit witnessed a coming together of the foremost powers of the global North to ensure that the West does not suffer grave negative consequences from any future blocking of western oil supplies.
Meanwhile, Israel is having a ‘free run’ of the Middle East, so to speak, picking out perceived adversarial powers, such as Lebanon, and militarily neutralizing them; once again with impunity. On the other hand, Iran has been bringing under assault, with no questions asked, Gulf states that are seen as allying with the US and Israel. West Asia is facing a compounded crisis and International Law seems to be helplessly silent.
Wittingly or unwittingly, matters at the heart of International Law and peace are being obfuscated by some pro-Trump administration commentators meanwhile. For example, retired US Navy Captain Brent Sadler has cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for the right to self or collective self-defence of UN member states in the face of armed attacks, as justifying the US sinking of the Iranian vessel (See page 2 of The Island of March 10, 2026). But the Article makes it clear that such measures could be resorted to by UN members only ‘ if an armed attack occurs’ against them and under no other circumstances. But no such thing happened in the incident in question and the US acted under a sheer threat perception.
Clearly, the US has violated the Article through its action and has once again demonstrated its tendency to arbitrarily use military might. The general drift of Sadler’s thinking is that in the face of pressing national priorities, obligations of a state under International Law could be side-stepped. This is a sure recipe for international anarchy because in such a policy environment states could pursue their national interests, irrespective of their merits, disregarding in the process their obligations towards the international community.
Moreover, Article 51 repeatedly reiterates the authority of the UN Security Council and the obligation of those states that act in self-defence to report to the Council and be guided by it. Sadler, therefore, could be said to have cited the Article very selectively, whereas, right along member states’ commitments to the UNSC are stressed.
However, it is beyond doubt that international anarchy has strengthened its grip over the world. While the US set destabilizing precedents after the crumbling of the Cold War that paved the way for the current anarchic situation, Russia further aggravated these degenerative trends through its invasion of Ukraine. Stepping back from anarchy has thus emerged as the prime challenge for the world community.
Features
A Tribute to Professor H. L. Seneviratne – Part II
A Living Legend of the Peradeniya Tradition:
(First part of this article appeared yesterday)
H.L. Seneviratne’s tenure at the University of Virginia was marked not only by his ethnographic rigour but also by his profound dedication to the preservation and study of South Asian film culture. Recognising that cinema is often the most vital expression of a society’s aspirations and anxieties, he played a central role in curating what is now one of the most significant Indian film collections in the United States. His approach to curation was never merely archival; it was informed by his anthropological work, treating films as primary texts for understanding the ideological shifts within the subcontinent
The collection he helped build at the UVA Library, particularly within the Clemons Library holdings, serves as a comprehensive survey of the Indian ‘Parallel Cinema’ movement and the works of legendary auteurs. This includes the filmographies of directors such as Satyajit Ray, whose nuanced portrayals of the Indian middle class and rural poverty provided a cinematic counterpart to H.L. Seneviratne’s own academic interests in social change. By prioritising the works of figures such as Mrinal Sen and Ritwik Ghatak, H.L. Seneviratne ensured that students and scholars had access to films that wrestled with the complex legacies of colonialism, partition, and the struggle for national identity.
These films represent the ‘Parallel Cinema’ movement of West Bengal rather than the commercial Hindi industry of Mumbai. H.L. Seneviratne’s focus initially cantered on those world-renowned Bengali masters; it eventually broadened to encompass the distinct cinematic languages of the South. These films refer to the specific masterpieces from the Malayalam and Tamil regions—such as the meditative realism of Adoor Gopalakrishnan or the stylistic innovations of Mani Ratnam—which are culturally and linguistically distinct from the Bengali works. Essentially, H.L. Seneviratne is moving from the specific (Bengal) to the panoramic, ensuring that the curatorial work of H.L. Seneviratne was not just a ‘Greatest Hits of Kolkata’ but a truly national representation of Indian artistry. These films were selected for their ability to articulate internal critiques of Indian society, often focusing on issues of caste, gender, and the impact of modernisation on traditional life. Through this collection, H.L. Seneviratne positioned cinema as a tool for exposing the social dynamics that often remain hidden in traditional historical records, much like the hidden political rituals he uncovered in his early research.
Beyond the films themselves, H.L. Seneviratne integrated these visual resources into his curriculum, fostering a generation of scholars who understood the power of the image in South Asian politics. He frequently used these screenings to illustrate the conflation of past and present, showing how modern cinema often reworks ancient myths to serve contemporary political agendas. His legacy at the University of Virginia therefore encompasses both a rigorous body of writing that deconstructed the work of the kings and a vivid archive of films that continues to document the work of culture in a rapidly changing world.
In his lectures on Sri Lankan cinema, H.L. Seneviratne has frequently championed Lester James Peries as the ‘father of authentic Sinhala cinema.’ He views Peries’s 1956 film Rekava (Line of Destiny) as a watershed moment that liberated the local industry from the formulaic influence of South Indian commercial films. For H.L. Seneviratne, Peries was not just a filmmaker but an ethnographer of the screen. He often points to Peries’s ability to capture the subtle rhythms of rural life and the decline of the feudal elite, most notably in his masterpiece Gamperaliya, as a visual parallel to his own research into the transformation of traditional authority. H.L. Seneviratne argues that Peries provided a realistic way of seeing for the nation, one that eschewed nationalist caricature in favour of complex human emotion.
However, H.L. Seneviratne’s praise for Peries is often tempered by a critique of the broader visual nationalism that followed. He has expressed concern that later filmmakers sometimes misappropriated Peries’s indigenous style to promote a narrow, majoritarian view of history. In his view, while Peries opened the door to an authentic Sri Lankan identity, the state and subsequent commercial interests often used that same door to usher in a simplified, heroic past. This critique aligns with his broader academic stance against the rationalization of culture for political ends.
Constitutional Governance:
H.L. Seneviratne’s support for independent commissions is best described as a hopeful pragmatism; he views them as essential, albeit fragile, instruments for diffusing the hyper-concentration of executive power. Writing to Colombo Page and several news tabloids, H.L. Seneviratne addresses the democratic deficit by creating a structural buffer between partisan interests and public institutions, theoretically ensuring that the judiciary, police, and civil service operate on merit rather than political whim. However, he remains deeply aware that these commissions are not a panacea and are indeed inherently susceptible to the ‘politics of patronage.’
In cultures where power is traditionally exercised through personal loyalties, there is a constant risk that these bodies will be subverted through the appointment of hidden partisans or rendered toothless through administrative sabotage. Thus, while H.L. Seneviratne advocates for them as a means to transition a state from a patron-client culture to a rule-of-law framework, his anthropological lens suggests that the success of such commissions depends less on the law itself and more on the sustained pressure of civil society to keep them honest.
Whether discussing the nuances of a film’s narrative or the complexities of a constitutional clause, H.L. Seneviratne’s approach remains consistent in its focus on the spirit behind the institution. He maintains that a healthy democracy requires more than just the right laws or the right symbols; it requires a citizenry and a clergy capable of critical self-reflection. His career at the University of Virginia and his continued engagement with Sri Lankan public life stand as a testament to the idea that the intellectual’s work is never truly finished until the work of the people is fully realized.
In the context of H.L. Seneviratne’s philosophy, as discussed in his work of the kings ‘the work of the people’ is far more than a populist catchphrase; it represents the practical application of critical consciousness within a democracy. Rather than defining ‘work’ as labour or voting, H.L. Seneviratne views it as the transition of a population from passive subjects to an active, self-reflective citizenry. This means that a democracy is only truly ‘realized’ when the public possesses the intellectual autonomy to look beyond the ‘right laws’ or ‘right symbols’ and instead engage with the underlying spirit of their institutions. For H.L. Seneviratne, this work is specifically tied to the ability of the people—including influential groups like the clergy—to perform rigorous self-critique, ensuring that they are not merely following tradition or authority, but are actively sustaining the ethical health of the nation. It is a perpetual process of civic education and moral vigilance that moves a society from the ‘paper’ democracy of a constitution to a lived reality of accountability and insight.
This decline of the ‘intellectual monk’ had a catastrophic impact on the political landscape, particularly surrounding the watershed moment of 1956 and the ‘Sinhala Only’ movement. H.L. Seneviratne posits that when the Sangha exchanged their role as impartial moral advisors for that of political kingmakers, they became the primary obstacle to ethnic reconciliation. He suggests that politicians, fearing the immense grassroots influence of the monks, entered a state of monachophobia, where they felt unable to propose pluralistic or fair policies toward minority communities for fear of being branded as traitors to the faith. In H.L. Seneviratne’s framework, the monk’s transition from a social servant to a political vanguard effectively trapped the state in a cycle of majoritarian nationalism from which it has yet to escape.
H.L. Seneviratne’s work serves as a multifaceted critique of the modern Sri Lankan state and its cultural foundations. Whether he is dissecting what he sees as the betrayal of the monastic ideal or celebrating the humanistic vision of an Indian filmmaker, his goal remains the same: to champion a world where intellect and compassion are not sacrificed on the altar of political power. His legacy at the University of Virginia and his continued voice in Sri Lankan discourse remind us that the work of the intellectual is to provide a moral compass even, indeed especially, when the nation has lost its way.
(Concluded)
by Professor
M. W. Amarasiri de Silva
Features
Musical journey of Nilanka Anjalee …
Nilanka Anjalee Wickramasinghe is, in fact, a reputed doctor, but the plus factor is that she has an awesome singing voice, as well., which stands as a reminder that music and intellect can harmonise beautifully.
Well, our spotlight today is on ‘Nilanka – the Singer,’ and not ‘Nilanka – the Singing Doctor!’
Nilanka’s journey in music began at an early age, nurtured by an ear finely tuned to nuance and a heart that sought expression beyond words.
Under the tutelage of her singing teachers, she went on to achieve the A.T.C.L. Diploma in Piano and the L.T.C.L. Diploma in Vocals from Trinity College, London – qualifications recognised internationally for their rigor and artistry.
These achievements formally certified her as a teacher and performer in both opera singing and piano music, while her Performer’s Certificate for singing attested to her flair on stage.
Nilanka believes that music must move the listener, not merely impress them, emphasising that “technique is a language, but emotion is the message,” and that conviction shines through in her stage presence –serene yet powerful, intimate yet commanding.
Her YouTube channel, Facebook and Instagram pages, “Nilanka Anjalee,” have become a window into her evolving artistry.
Here, audiences find not only her elegant renditions of local and international pieces but also her original songs, which reveal a reflective and modern voice with a timeless sensibility.
Each performance – whether a haunting ballad or a jubilant interpretation of a traditional hymn – carries her signature blend of technical finesse and emotional depth.
Beyond the concert hall and digital stage, Nilanka’s music is driven by a deep commitment to meaning.
Her work often reflects her belief in empathy, inner balance, and the beauty of simplicity—values that give her performances their quiet strength.
She says she continues to collaborate with musicians across genres, composing and performing pieces that reflect both her classical discipline and her contemporary outlook.
Widely acclaimed for her ability to adapt to both formal and modern stages, with equal grace, and with her growing repertoire, Nilanka has become a sought-after soloist at concerts and special events,
For those who seek to experience her artistry, firsthand, Nilanka Anjalee says she can be contacted for live performances and collaborations through her official channels.
Her voice – refined, resonant, and resolutely her own – reminds us that music, at its core, is not about perfection, but truth.
Dr. Nilanka Anjalee Wickramasinghe also indicated that her newest single, an original, titled ‘Koloba Ahasa Yata,’ with lyrics, melody and singing all done by her, is scheduled for release this month (March)
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