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Presidential Stakes and Aragalaya Memory Bells

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BY Rajan Philips

Nominations for the presidential elections were formalized on Thursday, leaving 37 days on the countdown to the national vote on September 21. Thirty nine candidates are in the fray and one of them, President Wickremasinghe, has been assigned the ‘Gas Cylinder’ symbol for the ballot. No more candidates or elephant rides for the UNP. Mr. Wickremesinghe is standing as an independent candidate, the last of the Lake House Mohicans, so to speak.

He could use the Gas Cylinder symbol to remind voters how as the caretaker President he has restored the supplies of goods that were a scarcity under the previous regime. Hopefully, the government will make sure that there are no gas cylinder explosions in people’s kitchens. That would be tragic for the households and could be electorally costly for the candidate.The gas cylinder could have been the only reminder to Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience were it not for the events in Bangladesh that started ringing political memory bells in Colombo. Sri Lanka’s aragalaya experience and outcomes were far less severe or far reaching than what Bangladesh has now just gone through.

Not that Sri Lanka’s aragalaya had some demonstration effect in Bangladesh; Imran Khan had earlier refused to emulate it in Pakistan. It is only that the aragalaya experience here provides a prism for Sri Lankans to view events elsewhere, make comparative sense of them, and to be reminded that it is easier for bad history to repeat itself when nothing is learnt (say from the aragalaya experience) and everything is forgotten.

There is superficial comparison between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In Bangladesh, mounting protests in spite of brutal put down efforts by then Prime Minister Sheik Hasina forced her to flee the country seven months after winning a fourth consecutive election victory. Everyone in the Awami League government has disappeared according to the newly installed interim government leader Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and one of the many critics and opponents of Ms. Hasina who have been virtually exiled or imprisoned during her long rule.

All of them are free now and the daughter of the father of nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rahuman, is now a political fugitive. Her remarkable achievements on the economic front notwithstanding. Her sanctuary in India will be a constant factor in the regional backbiting over the internal causes and the external catalysts of Bangladesh’s sudden woes.

The causes and consequences of the aragalaya in Sri Lanka were far more straightforward and were far more easily contained. To his credit, Gotabaya Rajapaksa did not order a brutal put down but that could also be because of his awareness of his own limitations. He left the country but was allowed to come back and live rather well at public expense. His nephew, Namal Rajapaksa is now a presidential candidate following his nomination at a family poruwa. Remarkable were the absentees, including Gotabaya Rajapaksa. That could be one of the more lasting effects of aragalaya – fissures in the Rajapaksa political edifice. Namal Rajapaksa could be the last of the lesser Mohicans in Sri Lankan politics. His first election candidacy could be his last, unlike Ranil Wickremesinghe who is running in his last election hoping to savour his first victory.

Polling Pointers

According to the latest (June 2024) polling data for “General Election Voting Intention” from the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), the SJB is leading the pack at 38% of voting intention, followed by the JVP/NPP at 26%, the SLPP at 16%, and the UNP at 7%. The other entities account for less than five percent each: ITAK – three percnt, SLMC – two percent, CWC – two percent, SLFP – one percent and others – four percent. There are technical problems with the sampling and methodology of the survey. Yet the periodical results could be indicative of any trends in the support levels.

Also, the answers to the survey question, “If there was a General Election today, which party would you vote for?” are not directly translatable as support for the candidates in the presidential election. Especially for President Wickremesinghe, who is contesting as an independent candidate hoping to garner votes from all voting constituents across the board, and not just seven percent of the votes based on the support for the UNP.

That said, inasmuch as it is the IHP poll that gave the JVP/NPP its early momentum at 31%, it is reasonable to interpret the new numbers as indicating a declining or flattening trend for the JVP/NPP. The JVP/NPP support is deemed to have dipped by five p.c. and the SJB support to have increased by one p.c. Yet 26% is quite a jump from the 3.2 p.c. and 3.8 p.c. support levels that the JVP/NPP registered at the 2019 presidential election and the 2020 parliamentary election.

There is no question that the JVP/NPP support has since ballooned to impressive proportions, but the question is whether the swelling support is enough to propel Anura Kumara Dissanayake to be one of the top two candidates in the September election. I say ‘top two candidates’ because it is almost impossible that any one of the three main candidates could be elected on the first ballot, and so the race is really to be one of the top two for reckoning in the second count of preferential votes.

Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe have opposite reasons to be happy with the IHP polling for all its limitations. The SJB’s 38% support is significantly higher than its 24% vote share in the 2020 parliamentary election. It is obviously lower than the 42% share that Sajith Premadasa polled in the 2019 presidential election, and Mr. Premadasa might look to the 42% mark to be optimistic about reaching upward of 35% on the first count. That is if only Ranil Wickremesinghe would let him have it so easily.

President Wickremesinghe would be looking to slice off as much as he could from the UNP votes that Sajith Premadasa garnered for himself in the 2019 presidential election. How much would it be is the question. Mr. Wickremesinghe might consider it to be positive that the UNP’s support of seven p.c. in the IHP poll is more than thrice the 2.15 p.c. vote share the grand old party managed to collect in the 2020 parliamentary election. As an independent candidate, Mr. Wickremesinghe would be looking to pilfer votes across the board, but the two main vote banks that he could draw from are the SJB (which is the old UNP account) and the SLPP. RW would have been hoping for a maximum draw from the SLPP account which may have been possible if the Rajapaksas had endorsed his (RW’s) candidacy.

But with Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa betraying Ranil and settling on Namal Rajapaksa to carry the family torch, RW’s earlier calculations might now need some revisiting. At the same time, the 16% support level for the SLPP in the IHP polling, from the highs of 52% in the 2019 presidential election and 59% in the 2020 parliamentary election, is indicative of the erosion of SLPP support in the country, or among the Sinhalese. Much of it likely would have migrated to the JVP, and they are not likely to trek to Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Put another way, Ranil Wickremesinghe might be starting with the smallest vote bank and the weakest organization for mobilizing votes. While all three candidates would look for support from the Tamil, Muslim and the Malayagha Tamil votes, not to mention the Sinhala Catholic vote, RW could be the one most dependent on them. Already, the SLMC has indicated its support for Sajith Premadasa, and the CWC for Ranil Wickremesinghe. Where the Tamil vote will fall or if the ITAK will openly support a candidate is still unknown.

A common Tamil candidate if there were to be one could be in a race to the bottom with Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe who might present himself as the only authentic Sinhala candidate in the mix. He apparently has the support of a third of the SLFP organization although none of the organizational claimants have any vote base left in the country. It would be impossible to discern where the pre-2005 SLFP voters are now and could be a problem for Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Now to voter preferences for the second and third best. With 39 candidates on the ballot, each voter can vote for any one of them and could also indicate her/his second and third preferences. As no candidate is likely to get more than 50% of the vote on the first count, the winner will have to be determined from the top two candidates. This will be done by eliminating the other 37 candidates and counting the second and third preferences marked on the eliminated ballots for either one of the top two candidates. Notably, the second/third preferences marked on the ballots of the top two candidates will not be counted against each other. Whoever gets the higher total after adding the preferential votes will be declared the winner.

Given their common voter allegiances, those who vote for Sajith Premadasa would likely cast their second preference for Ranil Wickremesinghe, and vice versa. So, if the two of them end up as the top two candidates, then their mutually preferential votes will be of no value. On the other hand, if one of them and Anura Kumara Dissanayake end up as the top two candidates, Mr. Dissanayake could be at a disadvantage when preferential votes are counted. The constitution also provides for drawing lots to determine the winner if two or more candidates end up with the same number of votes. That would be a long shot, but the three main candidates could end up with totals that are quite close. Picking a winner out of them without a runoff election is hardly a democratic exercise. That only begs the question: why have this system at all!



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Are rice consumers and farmers victims of current practices?

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by Neville Ladduwahetty

One of the subjects President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is responsible for is agriculture. On the other hand, subjects such as food security and health that are related and dependent on agriculture come under the purview of Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. Consequently, the production and distribution of agricultural products have a bearing on access to food at affordable prices to ensure not only food security but also on poverty and malnutrition. Thus, responsibility for the welfare and wellbeing of the majority of Sri Lankans depend on the joint efforts of the President and the Prime Minister.

An area that will have a significant bearing on the above is the production and distribution of rice. This topic is addressed in a well-researched article titled “RICE MONOPOLY Continues to Put Farmers and Consumers in Peril” by Prageeth Sampath Karunathilaka (Daily Mirror, Sept 25. 2024). This article confirms that consumers and farmers are victimised not only due to shortages in production but also by the current practices that are permitted to operate with regard to the production and distribution of rice.

RICE PRODUCTION

The aforesaid article says the per capita rice consumption is approximately 125 kg per year. Furthermore, it states that during a conversation the author had with a former Director of Agriculture, K.B. Gunaratne, he had commented that despite the fact that there were variations during COVID, Sri Lanka must produce an additional 2.4 million metric tons annually”.

The argument that Sri Lanka is self-sufficient in rice does not hold water. Therefore, since the current shortfalls have a bearing on market prices which in turn have a bearing on health, poverty and malnutrition, price variations should be avoided. It is therefore imperative that rice production be increased and stocks monitored regularly to ensure that sufficient stocks are available at any time because shortfalls are often the cause to justify increasing market prices.

Increasing paddy production could be achieved either by advanced technologies or by bringing more land under cultivation. Since the latter approach would involve an increase in infrastructure and maintenance costs, it would be more prudent to resort to advanced technologies because human capital and related infrastructure are already available. Furthermore, the former approach is likely to bear not only faster results but also more income to the farmer through increased yields.

CURRENT PRACTICES

The article cited above states: “In the past large-scale paddy mill owners sold rice at Rs. 220 per kilogram, based on the government’s guaranteed price. Meanwhile, smaller mill owners sold the same rice for Rs. 160-175 per kilogram. This allowed large scale mill owners to make a profit of Rs. 60-75 per kilogram of rice. They earned significant profits from paddy purchased at low prices. Although the government set a guaranteed price of Rs. 100 per kilogram of paddy, some large-scale mill owners bought it for as low as Rs. 70-80. It is no secret that purchasing hundreds of thousands of kilos of paddy at low prices and storing it led to massive profits ….

According to the National Institute of Post-Harvest Management, a large-scale mill owner earns at least 4 million in profit per day, which amounts to Rs. 120 million per month … To produce one kilogram of Nadu rice, about 1.5 kilograms of paddy are required”. This is so with other varieties as well. Thus, on average, nearly 2/3 of rice is produced from 1 kilogram of paddy.

“The cost of producing one kilogram of rice, including expenses such as machinery, electricity, labour and distribution is approximately 25 rupees. Given the government’s guaranteed price of 100 rupees per kilogram of paddy, rice can be sold to consumers at 160-175 rupees per kilogram. However, in the current market, a kilogram of rice is sold at 220 rupees”.

With due respect, there appears to be an inaccuracy in the conclusion that “rice can be sold to consumers at 160-175 rupees per kilo”. If as stated in the article cited above, 1.5 kilos of paddy are required to produce 1 kilo of rice and the guaranteed price is Rs. 100 for a kilo of paddy, it means a farmer would need Rs. 150 to produce 1 kilo of rice. To this, if Rs. 25 is added as the cost of production as stated in the article, the bare cost without profit would be Rs. 175. Therefore, the comment that “rice can be sold to the consumer at 160-175 rupees per kilogram” needs to be revisited.

STRATEGY for the IMMEDIATE

What is evident from the foregoing is that the higher the guaranteed price for paddy, the greater is the benefit to the farmer because of increased income. On the other hand, high guaranteed prices for paddy results in high prices for the consumer. What is demonstrated above is that with a guaranteed price of Rs. 100 for paddy, the price to the consumer has to be close to Rs. 200 and above. Another fact demonstrated is that a high guaranteed price to the Farmer and an affordable price to the consumer is an incompatible proposition. Consequently, the challenge is how the farmer could earn a worthwhile income while ensuring that the consumer has access to rice at an affordable price.

A fact that influences this challenge is the availability of paddy surpluses soon after each harvest. The large-scale millers have financial capacities and infrastructural resources to buy large stocks following each harvest at low prices and store the paddy. Consequently, farmers are at their mercy. Such advantages are not available to small and medium scale Mill owners. However, the Agriculture Department reports that it is “set to provide a maximum loan amount of Rs. 50 million rupees for small and medium scale rice mill owners and maximum loan amount of Rs. 25 million rupees for paddy storers and collectors through state and private banks…” (Dept. of Agriculture Report).

An alternative proposed by All Ceylon Farmers’ Federation (ACFF) Convener Namal Karunaratne speaking to The Sunday Morning (June 25, 2023) is “that prices could be reduced if production cost was reduced… For instance, to reduce production costs, farmers’ equipment and gear need to be freed from taxes. Fertiliser prices need to be reduced. If production costs are reduced to about Rs. 60 a kilo of paddy can be sold for Rs. 80-90. The responsibility for this is in the hands of the government.”

Similar concepts have been in operation since 2000 by The Farm Storage Facility Loan Program (FSFL) of the US Department of Agriculture. FSFL provides low-interest financing so producers can build or upgrade permanent and portable storage facilities and equipment. Eligible commodities include grains, oilseeds, peanuts, pulse crops, hay, hemp, honey, renewable biomass commodities, fruits and vegetables, floriculture, hops, maple sap, maple syrup, milk, cheese, yogurt, butter, eggs, meat/poultry (unprocessed), rye and aquaculture. Eligible facility types include grain bins, hay barns, bulk tanks, and facilities for cold storage.

Drying and handling and storage equipment is also eligible, including storage and handling trucks. Eligible facilities and equipment may be new or used, permanently affixed or portable. Since its inception in May 2000, more than 33,000 loans have been issued for on-farm storage, increasing storage capacity by 900 million bushels.

FSFL is an excellent financing programme for on-farm storage and handling for small and mid-sized farms, and for new farmers. Loan terms vary from 3 to 12 years. The maximum loan amount for storage facilities is $500,000. The maximum loan amount for storage and handling trucks is $100,000. In 2016 FSA introduced a new loan category, the microloan, for loans with an aggregate balance up to $50,000. Microloans offer a 5 percent down-payment requirement, compared to a 15 percent down-payment for a regular FSFL, and waive the regular three-year production history requirement.

CONCLUSION

The clear objective of any government has been to ensure a healthy income to the paddy farmer and rice at an affordable price to the Consumer. Achieving such an objective means improving the welfare and wellbeing of nearly a third of the population who are engaged in production and improving the health of the whole nation with an impact on poverty.

A variety of opinions and proposals have been expressed and explored over the years to realize the objective stated above. Most of them involve the intervention of the Government in one way or another. For instance, one way is for the Government to control 10% of paddy production to stabilize production and to provide financial benefits in one form or another to reduce costs.

One form of financial assistance considered has been to provide loans to establish small and medium scale Mills and storage facilities throughout the country; a strategy adopted by the US Department of Agriculture. Another form has been to subsidize fertilizer and other inputs required in the production of paddy. Yet another is to establish guaranteed prices for paddy; a strategy that favours the Farmer but not the Consumer, as stated above.

None of these options have proved satisfactory, as far as achieving the desired objectives are concerned. The reason perhaps is because strategies proposed are from the perspectives of the Farmer or the Consumer and not from a holistic perspective of both. Therefore, the strong recommendation is that a Forensic Audit is conducted to ascertain the most effective strategy or strategies to meet the interests of both Farmer and Consumer.

However, what is needed in the immediate term is for the Government to engage with the large-scale mill owners and the representatives of the All Ceylon Farmers’ Federation to establish a sustainable compromise arrangement that serves the interests of both the Farmer and Consumer because at the end of the day, their interests affect the wellbeing, health and food security of the whole nation, the responsibility for which rests jointly with the President and the Prime Minister.

 

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Hope for future; Heads need be cautious

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PM Harini Amarasuriya

Many good things have been happening; the best is that in all Sri Lankans, barring opposing political parties and politicians, hope has been rekindled after decades of gloom and doom. We trust, admire and have full confidence in the President and the Prime Minister. Cass does not need to spell these out and give reasons.

Beware the bullet

Open letters have been penned and seen in the public sphere as how things should be done. Personally, Cass believes no pontificating nor even advice is needed. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his advisors, and Dr Harini Amarasuriya know what they have to do, how best to do these, and they will deliver, for the greater benefit of the country and its people. Already things are greatly improved like food items getting cheaper.

Cass always wondered why eggs and onions were imported from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan when we can produce our own, and if there occurred a shortfall, we just had to tide over that hiccup and use less or no eggs and onion. Then she was told of the import mafias – unscrupulous persons making personal profits at the expense of the country and us The People. The authorities, under the new dispensation which is honest and wise and true to the country will stop import of inessentials. That will give a boost to local producers. So, enjoy it!!

One matter Cass wanted to write an open letter to the two Heads was to please be careful; employ high security; cut down on moving around freely. They have to be very cautious. The entire country’s future now depends on these two: the Prez and PM. This is no exaggeration. Murderers, willing now to kill for perhaps a mere Rs 2,000, float around looking for their kind of work. Someone corrected Cass when she said this. Stupid, a murderer can be hired for a shot of arrack, so low is the morale of some and so rampant are sharpshooters ready to be hired.

The two Big Ones must constantly keep in mind that there are politicians in kapati suits who do not have an ounce, nay, an atom of conscience. The hunger for power, envy, need to avenge being defeated are so great that for the sake of just himself, he will order the murder of someone, even though it will shatter the entire country and send it plunging down a gorge worse than the bankruptcy they caused. Also, a strong motive pushes them forward to order a killing – their being open to exposure now that previous crimes are to be re-investigated, and more closely.

Remember Lasantha W was brutally, horrendously murdered just because he was writing about an act of suspected corruption. Even more tragic was the torture and murder of ruggerite Wassim Thajudeen since he cocked a snook at powerful sons and was, it is said, due to a dispute about a sports team. Those who were suspected of commissioning the murders and the murderers themselves are still free and around. Nothing was proven in these cases so what Cass says here is almost hearsay, but fingers pointed then and still do so. Murder simply cannot be overlooked.

Advice given by elders when we complained of a theft of something of ours was: Why do you accommodate temptation? Why are you not careful about your possessions? Do not keep them lying around, inviting theft. Now that Cass is the older person and allowed to advise: please, increase the security around our Head of State and Head of Government. It was wonderful seeing the President Elect let himself out of his car and walk unescorted by security personnel to take his oaths as Head of State. He needs to change his stance; and Harini as well. They need very secure, foolproof protection. They must also cut out walk-abouts.

Work ethic

Iridescent, luminous is the message conveyed by the true story of the son who reported for work in the skies while his father was taking oaths as the Prez of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. His reply to his peers who asked him why he was not among the VVIPs at this momentous event is said to have been: “I let my father do his job and I like to do my job.”

That ethos was much with us older persons when we were in careers: hardly took leave, especially medical staff and teachers, (not government teachers who were often non-caring of kids in their charge); we worked a full day. Cass remembers going to her place of work the day after her husband was cremated. Shocked looks. You could have taken a week off. But why? I did all I had to do and now I am ready to carry on my job. She remembers as the Education Officer in a professional association finding students taking very long over an assignment they had to submit before final results. Why have you taken so long to complete the research and submit your paper? My father died? When? A year ago. So, you are in deep mourning all this time, unable to do what you have to do! That is the general trend in this lotus eating country of ours.

Back to work

This malaise has ceased. Goodness gracious! A woman reports that she visited the income tax office in the past week. A department which had earned the wrath of the public for sending them from pillar to post. But to her utter surprise and delight her work was attended to, pronto, and she was treated politely.

Cass had a report to get about a piece of land. Her agent went a number of times to two offices concerned and spent many hours, but the document was not signed. The person authorised to sign the document had gone to political meetings, he said. The agent told her the officer expected jarava – oiling palms. Post September 23, Cass told her agent that now he would get the completed document handed over to him the moment he went in!

Demise of the vehicle parades

A vendor on Thurstan Road opposite Royal and Thurstan Colleges told a friend that normally a large number of armed forces’ vehicles driven by uniformed personnel would stop in front of where he was to drop boys studying at Royal. But no longer since September 23!

Monday late news reported that 107 vehicles, all luxury, were allocated to Presidential advisors, secretaries et al by ex Prez Ranil W. So very many advisors when he was a man who decided matters often on his own? What did Rosy Senanayake advise him on, pray? Sartorial elegance? This is just one institution and the cost borne by us, citizens, in maintaining them a favoured bod could cruise all over in a public paid for vehicle? Deeply shocking!

Dr Harini Amerasuriya’s views

Cass listened to an interview conducted before the presidential elections by Kishani Alanki of Conversations with Dr Harini Amarasuriya where she was asked what she stood for if the NPP won the presidency. Cass’ heart got lighter, hopes kept rising and pride was born within as Dr H A outlined strategies she would promote. She first made clear the ideology of the NPP and its inception – the National People’s Power or Jathika Jana Balawegaya, established in 2019, is a socialist political alliance led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, consisting of 21 political parties.

Dr H A’s main areas of interest are education, women’s and children’s concerns and of course bringing equality among all in the island, particularly concentrating on erasing the divide between the haves and the marginalized. She was questioned about the low representation of women in Parliament and how she fared, with the majority of her co-MPs being male. She smiled broadly! She said she fared well but there were instances when behaviour toward other women MPs was below par (Cass’ words).

Encouraging it was to hear that in her interaction with women in various spheres of employment and economic status, she found so many willing to give of their ability to improve the condition of the people of the land. Yes, Cass agrees wholesale with the move: give a woman a job and she will do it well, with full commitment and effort. Corruption and its temptation are so much less in women, Cass boldly affirms.

So, unlike on previous Fridays, with Cass’ dismal mood infusing her Cry with acid and suppressed frustration, she now looks to the future with hope and enthusiasm.

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Pathfinder Foundations launches Sinhala Translation of ‘The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World”

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The Sinhala translation of  ‘The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World’  by Dr. S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of the Government of India, will be launched in Colombo today. The decade from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis to the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic has significantly transformed the world order. In The India Way’, Dr. S. Jaishankar analyses these challenges and proposes possible policy responses. He places this thinking in the context of history and tradition, appropriate for a civilizational power that seeks to reclaim its place on the world stage.

 The Sinhala translation of the book ‘The India Way’ is a publication by the Pathfinder Foundation translated by Ajith Perakum Jayasinghe.

The original publication was undertaken by Delhi-based Harper Collins Publishers India Private Limited, from whom Pathfinder Foundation obtained the license to translate the work into Sinhalese language and print for distribution free of charge.

The book is available free of charge for public libraries and libraries of all universities in the country by contacting pm@Pathfinderfoundation.org or 011 425 9952-3.

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