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Petrodollar and US hegemony Putin-NATO-Zelenskyy Catastrophe

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by Kumar David

This essay surveys two topics which have come into blinding spotlight in recent weeks; the petrodollar, its likely eviction from the cosmos and hence demise of US global hegemony, and second the pluperfect cock-up by Putin and NATO-West, and the humiliation of, not as pokerfaced as Putin, nor as dour as never-smile Xi, perpetual clown Vladimir Zelenskyy (VZ), but more profoundly the misery of the Ukrainian people.

The rise of the almighty petrodollar and the end of its supremacy

The first part of this essay does not discuss the folly of the invasion (I have done that previously many times) but focuses on a collateral issue. The transition from a British Empire on which the sun was loath to set to the American Century commenced before the 1914-18 Great War for the division of the colonial world between European powers and to a degree America. However, WW1 signposts the sunset. Thereafter the upsurge of American hegemony was inexorable. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a setback but the New Deal, and more important WW2 released the full force of capitalism and US Imperialism.

Capitalism displays its greatest surges after war and devastation lay waste to nations and continents and subsequently investment opportunities flourish. American glory was unchecked from the end of WW2 in a 30-year boom – give or take usual cyclical recessions – till an external factor (in economist-speak) screwed the carnival. The blasted Arabs decided they were going to grab and retain a great portion of the profits of oil – extending even to an embargo in October 1973 – and so began what Americans, the West and economists call the second oil-price crisis.

The United States suffered its longest and most severe post-war recession in 1973. Measures to overcome this led to stagflation – simultaneous stagnation and inflation, which mantras in the then prevailing text-books of capitalist economic theory said was impossible: an oxymoron. But that was after the point of intervention of today’s topic. Ever resourceful American power sorted out the post-1973 oil-price crisis (I won’t go through intermediate stages) by establishing the petrodollar in March 1974. The master stroke was that America and Saudi Arabia agreed to price oil only in US dollars in exchange for which the US would guarantee the Saudi State against all comers internationally and secure its stability against internal dissent. The Americans strong-armed European buyers and oil producers the world over to follow this pricing rule. So, when Venezuela sells oil to Timbuktu the contract is priced in dollars, the transaction cleared through banks which deal in US dollars and cleared through agencies or networks based mainly in New York or London. Thus, was born the petrodollar.

Soon it was not only oil; all commodities and trades were dominantly or indirectly included. The dollar and US securities now underpin 80% of global trade, are the stuff of government reserves worldwide, and the essential intermediary in big investments. When Basil grovels in Delhi begging bowl in hand Modi gives him dollars, when the IMF throws Gota a lifeline it is in dollars and Russia is stuck because most of its $650 billion reserves are in Western banks that exist in fealty to America.

The power of US financial hegemony is apparent when Europe kowtows on sanctions against Russia. Whether Russia deserves punishment is tangential; the surprise is that Europe obediently falls in line without a murmer; “independent” Swiss bankers who wash laundry-loads of dirty money are obedient. I do not believe all Europe obeyed out of fear of America or for protection of its nuclear umbrella only. The reason for docility is that Washington can crack the whip of financial dominion and impose secondary sanctions on any who disobey. Antony Blinken, hawkish US Secretary of State, openly threatened China and surprisingly the Lords of the Middle Kingdom who usually bristle did not even say “It’s unhelpful”. Dollar hegemony is the sword in America’s armoury that keeps friend and foe in place.

China saw it years ago and slowly, now clearly far too slowly, started building an alternative global payments system and pushed the digital Yuan. Russia has been brought to its knees by the might of the glorious dollar, not by any other sanction. Sanctions on energy are hurting Europe and Asia badly and will get worse unless the fight ends. Restrictions on nickel, palladium and metals where Russia is the main or one of the biggest suppliers have industries the world over scrambling and a recession is looming; supply chains are snapping. Shortfall of wheat, barley and corn shipments from breadbaskets Russia and Ukraine and discontinuing potash and fertiliser making inputs have frightening consequences. Even the ultra-reactionary Economist shudders and predicts food riots in the Maghreb, Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Central America as grain prices triple by years end unless supplies resume. Recession seems inevitable and social instability a knock-on. Fertile ground to sow Yuan-Rial, Yuan-Ruble and Ruble-Indian Rupee trade and non-dollar petroleum transactions. If petrodollar supremacy erodes it will take US hegemony down with it.

Almighty chaos

The US-NATO-West incited and cheered-on affable VZ as the poster boy of global democracy and brave champion of freedom’ They lauded the Ukrainian people as civilisations standard bearers of liberty. Then what happened? When the enraged bull showed no signs of backing off, when it became an eyeball to eyeball standoff, they hung poor VZ and Ukraine out to dry and found rational arguments why their comfortable lives, orderly cities, bank accounts and warm conjugal embraces should not be disrupted by atom bombs. Love, liberty, freedom and a warm liberal lifestyle hit a wall.

“We will give you refuge and succour (and that’s wonderful; by no means should one sneer) says Europe, but militarily NATO is posturing at a safe distance from the snorting, god-knows-what-he-will-do-next, bull. Desperate, VZ screams WW3 will come if you don’t intervene; but poor lost soul, NATO is deaf. He and his country are expendable real-estate. Frankly I no longer take NATO’s “An attack on one is an attack on all” credo seriously. Do you think if some sliver of remote Baltic coast, thousands of miles from the US-European heartland is overrun by bears, NATO will come roaring, atoms in hand, stealth bombers in the sky? Bollocks, new NATO members please learn this lesson in realpolitik. After the USSR went up in smoke NATO bloated into a flatulent, militarily bulbous globule. It refuses suffer nuclear Armageddon for lumps of excess fat.

The second lesson that hardnosed analysts can take away from these events is that Putin is a world class cock-up champion. True human-rights violations, devastation and civilian deaths in Iraq post-2003 thanks to Moron Bush and Poodle Blair were much worse than Russian war-crimes in Ukraine to date. Civilians slain by the US and UK exceed 10,000, cities were devastated and Iraq reduced to rubble and penury from which who knows when it will recover. When the Americans departed, it left behind a fractured country of Shias and Sunnis at each other’s throats with no prospect of national unification. However, comparatively less carnage apart, in the end what will Putin have to show for his onslaught; not military victory which now seems assured but a criminal assault on civilians.

Less than nothing! And an interminable unwinnable civil war. Moscow has not learnt from Afghanistan (1979-85) nor others indicted in parenthesis from Korea (US and allies), Algeria (France), Vietnam (France and US), IPKF (India), Iraq (US and UK), Libya (US), Yemen (Saudi) and Afghanistan (dear god the US again). Let’s recapitulate lesson two: It’s not easy in modern times to militarily occupy and tame even a small foreign country unless powerful internal partners are in situ and a big portion of the population buys in. Examples of this counter-case are CIA engineered military-gorilla coups in Central and South America where powerful military and business-class interests were on-side, of course Bangladesh and some recent French peace-keeping interventions in the Sahel.

The third matter I must touch on is an extension of part one of this essay but of stand-alone significance. We have reached a turning point in the global financial order. Russia’s Central Bank Reserves have been frozen by the West and it has nowhere to turn but to Yuan facilities and bilateral Yuan denominated trade. Let that sink in, savour its significance! Central Bank holdings of about 10 countries are frozen by the US; international brigandage possible because of dollar domination as reserve, trading and investment vehicle. About 25 countries are sanctioned by the US as political opponents and the West kowtows. Among them Cuba, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, Belarus, Central African Republic, DRC, Ethiopia, Hong Kong, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Nicaragua, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and now Russia. But China is the largest trading partner of more countries than any other! Why on earth should it trade in a third-party money? The not yet finalised China-Saudi oil deal has been in the works for years. Pressure for restructuring the global financial system is inexorable. The dollar is not going away anywhere soon, nor did Rome fall in a day, but transition to a multi-currency world is unstoppable.

For the Yuan to be global China’s capital markets will have to open and banking become transparent. Government control and regulation must diminish and state protection of provincial banking decline. These changes may drive China towards more liberalism and greater use of market mechanisms than all that Jack & Jill Mas, property tycoons and stock markets will ever be able to do. Wonder what Marx would have made of unification of world finances on a rational platform? Written a Volume IV? The Dragon Emperor Quin Shi Huang (Terracotta Army chap) of the Qin Dynasty abolished primitive proto-feudalism in about 230 BC (feudalism proper never took root in China) and created a centralised state with 36 administrative units directly controlled from the Centre by powerful Mandarin officials – a bureaucracy. A fabulous 150-foot-long Song Dynasty (960-1270) mural depicts a bustling market-place, commerce, thriving trade and a fluid political-economy – marvellous! I have seen it.



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Solidarity and Aragalaya: A few thoughts from an educationist’s perspective

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by Harshana Rambukwella

Very little in Sri Lanka at the moment inspires hope. We are facing an existential crisis that was inconceivable just six months ago. Sri Lanka is also, ironically, just a year away from marking the 75th year of its independence. As we reflect on these seven decades of postcolonial nation building, and as we confront a future of extreme precarity, our scorecard as a country is not a proud one. Much blood has been spilt in the name of postcolonial nation building and the ethno-nationalist conflict that shaped almost three decades of that history and two youth rebellions against the state speak to a history of division and enmity. While our current predicament cannot be entirely attributed to this conflictual history alone, it surely played more than a small role in shaping our present misery. It is within this context that I want to offer this brief set of reflections on what I feel is an unprecedented form of solidarity that has emerged in Sri Lanka as the aragalaya took shape. While I do not want to romanticize this solidarity because it is a highly contingent phenomenon and is shaped by the extreme nature of the current political and economic conditions, it offers us as a society, but more specifically as educators, something to reflect on as we try to imagine our role in a society that faces a painful process of rebuilding and recovery (though my hope is that such rebuilding and recovery does not mean the repetition of the tired old neo-liberal script we have followed for decades).

Before I explore what I mean by solidarity within the aragalaya, let me briefly reflect on solidarity as a concept. Solidarity is a term sometimes deployed in geopolitics. Particularly in this time of global turmoil where not just Sri Lanka, but many other countries are experiencing serious economic challenges, we see nations expressing solidarity with or towards other nations. However, such solidarity is almost always shaped by instrumental motives. This is what we might call a form of ‘vertical’ solidarity where more powerful and wealthy nations extend a ‘helping hand’ to their more unfortunate counterparts. Therefore, when India says ‘neighbourhood first’ and expresses solidarity with Sri Lanka in this time of trouble one can easily discern this as a hierarchical gesture shaped by instrumental motives. It is in reality, India’s strategic geopolitical interests that largely dominate this narrative of solidarity though one cannot disregard the critical importance of the assistance extended by India and other such ‘powerful’ nations in this time of national distress.

Another form in which solidarity manifests is through what some scholars have termed ‘enchanted’ solidarities. This is literally and metaphorically a distant form of solidarity where intellectuals, activists and others extend solidarity towards a struggle they perceive as deserving their support but without truly understanding the context in which they are intervening. This has often happened with ‘first world’ academics and intellectuals expressing solidarity towards ‘third world’ struggles which they felt were ideologically aligned with their beliefs. One example is how many liberal and leftist intellectuals supported the rise of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, believing it to be an anti-imperial liberation movement, only to become disillusioned with the movement as they began to see the full horror of the repression and violence unleashed by the Khmer regime. I think if we reflect on Sri Lanka’s postcolonial history, we can also find many such moments where enchanted solidarities were expressed towards various movements from people in the ‘metropolitan’ center with little understanding of the nuances of the politics on the ground.

Premised against both vertical and enchanted solidarities, scholars have also proposed what is called ‘disenchanted solidarity’. By this they mean a situation where diverse groups, sometimes with very different political and ideological agendas, come together to fight for a common cause. They are often critically conscious of their differences but face a common precarity that pushes them together to struggle and align in ways that were not possible before. Often such moments are also underwritten by anger, though the sources of anger or the objects towards which the anger is directed could be different. I would like to read the aragalaya through this lens of disenchanted solidarity. Particularly at the height of the Galle Face ‘Gota go gama’ protests – before the brutish May 9th attack symbolically ‘killed’ something of the ‘innocence’ of the struggle – there was a sense in which the different groups represented in that space were expressing solidarity towards a singular goal – getting rid of the Rajapakasas and a political system they saw as deeply corrupt – there was anger and a gathering of disenchanted solidarities. For many middle-class people, the aragalaya was a way in which to express their frustration at the lack of the basic necessities of life – be it gas, electricity and fuel – and how a corrupt political class had robbed them of their future. For those with longer histories of political activism such as the IUSF (the Inter University Students Federation) or youth activists from the Frontline Socialist Party or the JVPs youth wing or the many trade unions that supported the aragalaya, this moment in some ways represented the culmination, and perhaps even a vindication, of their longstanding struggles against a political, social and economic order that they consider fundamentally unfair and exploitative. Of course, within this larger narrative, there were and continue to be pragmatic political calculations, particularly from groups affiliated with political parties. At the same time, we also witnessed ethnic and religious minorities, often historically marginalized in Sri Lanka’s social and political mainstream finding a rare space to express their anger at the ways in which they have been discriminated against. However, the argalaya gave them a rare space to do so by channeling their anger as a form of solidarity towards the common goal of getting rid of the Rajapaksa dynasty and the corrupt political system as a whole.

But at the same time, we also saw the tenuous nature of these disenchanted solidarities in the aftermath of the 9th May attack on ‘Gota go gama’. Initially we saw another spectacular display of organic and spontaneous solidarity when health workers and office workers abandoned their workstations and rushed to ‘Gota go gama’ when news of the attack broke. But by the evening of that day the story had turned more insidious with a wave of attacks against the properties of politicians and others thought to have been involved in the attack against the peaceful aragayala participants. While we may understand and even empathize with this backlash, its violent nature and what appeared to be other instrumental motives driving it, such as the looting and revenge attacks, made it difficult to associate it with the moral principles that had animated the aragalaya thus far.

Thereafter, at the current moment I am writing, the aragalaya also appears to have lost some of its vital energy as the political configuration has shifted and the tragi-comedy of Sri Lanka’s realpolitik with its underhand deals and political mechanizations seems to have regained the upper hand.

However, what does this mean? Does it mean post May 9th the aragalaya has lost its meaning and purpose or can we push our analysis a little deeper. At this point I would like to introduce one final way in which scholars have discussed solidarity which I feel is appropriate to understand the aragalaya and the spirit that underwrote it and continues to underwrite it. This is what some scholars have called ‘deep solidarity’ – a situation where in today’s neo-liberal context where the vast majority of the population come to a realization of their common social and economic predicament and realize their common enemy is the symbolic ‘one percent’ or an insidious nexus between crony capital and political power that disempowers them. This is of course an idealistic conception but one which I feel holds true at least partially to this moment in Sri Lanka. People from widely varying social and economic strata, from different religious persuasions and people with wildly different ideological and political beliefs have been suddenly pushed together. They are all standing in the never-ending petrol and diesel queues, they are desperately hunting for the next cylinder of gas and increasingly many of them are going hungry. The privileges and the divisions that once defined them, no longer seem to be so ‘real’ and the one stark reality confronting them is a form of existential annihilation. I believe within the aragalaya we can glimpse traces of this deep solidarity and as an educationist I think it is our vital task to think of creative ways in which we might sustain this solidarity, grow it and nurture it, so that we can at least ‘imagine’ a better future. These are idealistic sentiments, but at least for me, such hope, is a political and pedagogical necessity of the current moment.

Harshana Rambukwella is attached to the Postgraduate Institute of English at the Open University of Sri Lanka

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies

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No solutions to nation’s problems from draft constitutional amendment

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by jehan perera

The three-wheel taxi driver did not need much encouragement to talk about the hardships in his life, starting with spending two days in the petrol queue to get his quota. He said that he had a practice of giving his three children a small packet of biscuits and a small carton of milk every morning. But now with the cost tripling, he could only buy one packet of biscuits and his three children had to share it. This is because their beloved country is facing one debacle after another for no fault of those kids or the larger nation. The latest is the failure of the government to make headway in accessing either IMF funding or other funding on any significant scale. Several countries have made donations, but these are in the millions whereas Sri Lanka requires billions if it is to come out of its vicious cycle of a dollar shortage.

There was much anticipation that the appointment of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe would bring in the billions that are desperately needed by the country if it is to obtain the fuel, food and medicines to keep the people healthy and the economy moving. But things have not worked out in this manner. The pickings have been slim and sparse. The IMF has given the reasons after the ten day visit by its staff to Sri Lanka. They have specifically referred to “reducing corruption vulnerabilities” in their concluding statement at the end of their visit. The international community in the form of multilateral donors and Western governments have prioritized political stability and a corruption-free administration prior to providing Sri Lanka with the financial assistance it requires.

The pressing need in the country is for the government to show there is political stability and zero tolerance for corruption in dealing with the prevailing crisis. It is not enough for government leaders to give verbal assurances on these matters. There needs to be political arrangements that convince the international community, and the people of Sri Lanka, that the government is committed to this cause. Several foreign governments have said that they will consider larger scale assistance to Sri Lanka, once the IMF agreement is operational. So far the government has not been successful in convincing the international community that its own accountability systems are reliable. This is the main reason why the country is only obtaining millions in aid and not billions.

INDEPENDENT COMMISSIONS

The draft 22nd Amendment that is now before the parliament (which will become the 21st Amendment should it be passed) would be a good place for the government to show its commitment. The cabinet has approved the draft which has three main sections, impacting upon the establishment of the constitutional council, the powers of the president and dual citizenship. However, the cabinet-approved draft is a far cry from what is proposed by the opposition political parties and civil society groups. It is watered down to the point of being ineffective. Indeed, it appears to be designed to fail as it is unlikely to gain the support of different political parties and factions within those parties whose support is necessary if the 2/3 majority is to be obtained.

In the first place, the draft constitutional amendment does not reduce the president’s power in any significant manner. The amendment is drafted in a way that the reduction of presidential powers will only occur with the next president. The president now in office, who has publicly admitted failure on his part, continues to be empowered to appoint and sack the prime minister and cabinet ministers at his arbitrary discretion. He is also empowered to appoint and dismiss the secretaries to ministries, who are the highest-ranking public service officials. In short, the executive arms of the government are obliged to do the president’s bidding or risk their jobs. This indicates the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose party has only a single seat in parliament, has no independent strength, but is there at the will and pleasure of the president.

In the second instance, the draft amendment was expected to set up a system of checks and balances for accountability and anti-corruption purposes. The pioneering effort in this regard was the 17th Amendment of 2001 that made provisions for a constitutional council and independent commissions. According to it, the members of all state bodies tasked with accountability and anti-corruption functions, such as the Bribery and Corruption Commission, the Human Rights Commission, the Police Commission, the Public Service Commission and the appointees to the higher judiciary were to be appointed through the constitutional council. The 17th Amendment made provision for seven of the ten members of the constitutional council to be from civil society.

DEATH BLOW

Unfortunately, in a manner designed to deal a death blow to the concept of checks and balances, the draft amendment sets up a constitutional council with the proportions in reverse to that of the 17th Amendment. It reveals a mindset in the political leadership that fears de-politicisation of decision making. Seven of the ten members will be appointed by the political parties and the president in a way in which the majority of members will be government appointees. Only three will be from civil society. This ensures a majority representation in the Council for government politicians, and the ensures government dominance over the political members. The composition of the constitutional council proposed in the Bill undermines the independence of the institutions to which appointments are made through the Council who will be unable to stem the wildly growing tide of corruption in the country.

It is no wonder that the furious people in the endless queues for petrol and diesel should believe that there is corruption at play in the continuing shortage of basic commodities. The government promised that ships would come in laden with fuel a week ago. Then, inexplicably, the information was disseminated that no ships were on the horizon. In any other country, except in a country like no other, the concerned leaders would have resigned. Due to the lack of fuel, perishable farm produce rots in rural farmhouses and markets in urban centres are empty and prices are rocketing up. In the meantime, the media has exposed rackets where the privileged, politically powerful and super rich, are given special access to fuel. It is patently clear that the government has failed to deliver on the results that were expected. The situation is getting worse in terms of corrupt practices.

To the credit of the Sri Lankan people, they are being patient. The bonds of social solidarity still prevail. But the anger at the self-seeking and incompetent political leaders is reaching the boiling point, as it did on 09 May. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa pledged to set up an interim government in consultation with party leaders in parliament. However, he did not do so but appointed UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister and thereby ended efforts of other parliamentarians to form a national unity government. The president’s pledge, made in the aftermath of the cataclysmic and unexpected violence that took place that day, was to reduce his presidential powers, transfer those powers to parliament and to appoint an all-party and interim government of no more than 15 ministers. These pledges remain unfulfilled and need to be implemented to be followed by elections as soon as the situation stabilises.

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Kehelgamuwa’s football skills and President Premadasa’s political sagacity

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By Hema Arachi

T.B. Kehelgamuwa, the cricketer who needs no plaudits from anyone, is well known. He represented then Ceylon and, later, Sri Lanka as a fearsome fast bowler during the pre-Test era. His contemporaries still talk about Kehel with great respect. Once S Skanda Kumar, the well-known cricketer, cricket commentator and former High Commissioner for Sri Lanka to Australia, proudly told me about his playing cricket with Kehelgamuwa. Bandu Samarasinghe, a Sri Lanka film star, on a TV programme vividly demonstrated how he faced Kehelgamuwa in a Sara Trophy game. That was the top-level tournament in the country.

This note is to share my watching Kehelgamuwa playing soccer when he was not so young. Then, though his grey hair was visible, he ran fast and played hard like a teenager. This was during President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s tenure. Returning from The Netherlands, after my postgraduate studies, I lived in Pelawatta, near the Sri Lanka Parliament and my workplace – International Irrigation Management Institute headquarters. I used to enjoy walking on Parliament grounds. That day was unique because the game between the President’s soccer team, comprising parliamentarians, and the Sri Lanka Police team, was played there.

President Premadasa was well known for his political sagacity, especially in manipulating any situation in his favour. For instance, the day Anura Bandaranayake became the Opposition Leader, Premadasa, praised Anura stating, “Anura is the best Opposition Leader we have.” He further requested that Anura join the ruling party and become a minister and also marry a girl from a prominent ruling party family. But within weeks, he was critical of Anura. One day an Opposition member asked him, “You said Anura was our best Opposition leader a few weeks ago but now criticise.” His reply was this: “Yes, I said so because Anura is the best Opposition leader for us, the ruling party, not for the Opposition. For the Opposition, the best leader is Sarath Muththetuwegama!”

A few weeks before the scheduled encounter between the Parliamentarians and the Police football team, there was a game between the Parliamentarians and the Colombo Municipality team. Premadasa captained the Parliamentarians and kicked the winning goal. I remember a cartoon in a newspaper where the Municipality team goalkeeper withdrew so that Premadasa could score the goal at his will.

During the game against the Police, Premadasa did not play but visibly played the role of the coach of the Parliamentarian team. Unlike the Municipality players, the Police played the game seriously. Kehelgamuwa represented the Police team that scored five goals by halftime, and the Parliamentarian team was nil. At halftime, Premadasa replaced the Parliamentarian goalkeeper with Jayawickerama Perera. Yet, the Police team recorded a sound victory.

I thought Premadasa was upset due to this defeat for his team. But no. Premadasa claimed victory: “I am happy that my team won the game by beating the Parliamentarians today! Being the Executive President, I do not belong to the Parliament. However, as the Commander-in-Chief, the Police come under my purview, so my team won today!”

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