Connect with us

Opinion

Lockdown Vs herd immunity

Published

on

There is, at present, a scientific debate on the relative merit of lockdown and herd immunity in the management of Covid-19 with substantial amount of good research going on. However there is no consensus among top researchers on this matter. They still do not say in one voice that one method is better than the other though the majority view seems to be in favour of lockdown.

Lockdown methods aim at lowering the reproduction number, ie. the actual number to whom each infected person could transmit the infection. Herd immunity attempts to allow people less likely to die lead their normal life thereby allowing the disease to spread causing immunity in a majority, while protecting those at high risk. Opponents say lockdown method doesn’t prevent but only delays the spread of infection. On the other hand herd immunity is said to be unethical and perhaps criminal allowing a viciously virulent virus free access to susceptible people.

England and Sweden had been suitable countries for comparative study and several researchers had studied the method adopted to control Covid in these two countries. Infection and death rates have been determined and analyzed using sophisticated statistical methods. England had first tried out herd immunity and later changed over to lockdown methods after advisers had asked Prime Minister Boris Johnson how many millions will have to die before herd immunity became effective and a mathematical model had shown that 5100000 would die if steps to lockdown are not taken. Sweden had chosen herd immunity from the time Covid started in that country up to the present. Some studies compare the situation in Sweden with that of other Scandinavian countries that had adopted lockdown methods.

According to most of the studies incidence of infection and death rates in England had come down after it started lockdown. Further it was found that these rates in England were lower compared to those in Sweden (Moaath K, et al, 2020, Thomas L, Aug. 2020). The daily incidence of infection dropped by 19 cases per 10 million after the lockdown in England compared to Sweden, and death rate by two deaths per 10 million. Also rates in Sweden were high compared to those in other Scandinavian countries such as Netherlands and Finland which had opted for lockdown methods.

Notwithstanding all these findings a statement known as the Great Barrington Declaration has been issued by three eminent scientists; epidemiologists from Harvard and Oxford and community medicine expert from Stanford and also several other cosigners. They are of the opinion that lockdown is a case of the cure being worse than the illness. Lockdown not only disrupts the economy but also the health of the people as normal health activities like vaccination of the young and cancer screening of the elderly are not possible. These could be irreparable effects that cannot be corrected after Covid.

However critics say herd immunity method could cause long term health consequences, which are known as Long-Covid, in the young as well as the elderly. Four types of syndromes are identified as Long-Covid cases, some have permanent damage to lungs and heart, others get post infection fatigue, some end up with continuous Covid symptoms and some have post ICU syndrome. These complications have prompted epidemiologists like G. Gonsales of the Yale University to say herd immunity method is nothing but “culling the herd of the sick and the disabled. It’s grotesque”. There are researchers who conclude that herd immunity has failed in Sweden. They have found that antibodies are not present in the mildly ill or the asymptomatic patients which is central to the concept of herd immunity.

Population of Sweden is about half that of Sri Lanka. Number of Covid cases in Sweden is more than 100,000 and deaths almost 6000. In contrast we have in Sri Lanka with double the population about 6000 cases and 13 deaths, what a contrast !. Is there any reason why we should change our strategy in tackling Covid. The first wave was controlled with an island-wide curfew and lockdown in the affected areas. Cases were cut down to a minimum and this allowed the limited health facilities to be used with optimum results, the death rate being among the lowest in the world. Our concern for stranded citizens in foreign lands where Covid raged made us make a special effort to bring them home and some of them came with Covid and have caused a second wave. Should we grumble, I am sure not. This time around the strategy has somewhat changed with lessons learnt. There is no island-wide curfew, let us hope the need would never arise, and instead there is strict lockdown in the affected areas and in the rest of the country life goes on as usual. Let us hope the death rate would remain at present level and the infection brought under control. If the people cooperate with the health authorities and the armed forces and the police we could succeed yet again.

N.A. de S. Amaratunga

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Opinion

Amend Cabinet decision on new Rajagiriya – Nawala Canal bridge

Published

on

The Cabinet, at its meeting held on 09.11.2020 granted approval for the construction of a new bridge across the Rajagiriya-Nawala Canal (Kolonnawa Canal), connecting Angampitiya Road, at Ethul kotte, and School Lane, at Nawala.

As a resident of Nawala, I would like to make two proposals in this regard. One is to reconsider the suitability of the proposed link between School Lane and Angampitiya Road to connect Nawala with Ethul Kotte. The second is to make an additional link between Narahenpita and Nawala, by constructing a new bridge across the Kinda Canal, which flows past the Wall-Tile Showroom on the Nawala-Narahenpita Road and the McDonald’s outlet at Rajagiriya. This will provide a direct access from Narahenpita to Ethul Kotte, and at the same time avoiding congestion on Kirimandala Mawatha and Parliament Road, during peak hours.

The decision to construct a bridge, linking Nawala and Ethul Kotte, is commendable, but the selection of the site for the bridge needs reconsideration. Once Ethul Kotte is linked with Nawala, through Angampitiya Road, and School Lane, one would expect a substantial increase in the volume of traffic on these two roads. Located on School Lane is the Janadhipathi Balika Vidyalaya, a popular girls’ school in the area. Even at present, the area around School Lane has heavy traffic comprising mostly school vans and other vehicles bringing children to and from this school, in the mornings and afternoons. Linking School Lane with Ethul Kotte will make this traffic situation worse, causing congestion.

A better option is to connect Ethul Kotte with Nawala, by constructing a bridge, linking New Jayaweera Mawatha in Ethul Kotte, with Koswatta Road, in Nawala. A by-lane, branching off from the Koswatta Road leading up to the canal, at an appropriate location, could be used for this purpose. On this link, only a short distance of roadway about 250 m, needs to be developed, whereas the School Lane extension needs development of at least 700 m of roadway. Earlier, motorists used Koswatta Road as a shortcut to access Parliament Road. Now, turning right, at the Parliament Road junction, is not permitted, and hence, there isn’t much traffic on this road at present.

One advantage of extending the Koswatta Road, to Ethul Kotte is that it could be linked in the other direction, with Muhandiram Dabare Mawatha, on the Narahenpita side, providing a direct route for motorists coming along Thimbirigasyaya Road to go to Ethul Kotte. With this link, it will be possible for traffic to avoid both Parliament Road and Chandra de Silva Mawatha, Nugegoda, the only two access roads to Kotte, from Colombo, available at present.

To complete this access, it is necessary to construct a bridge across Kinda Canal, linking Galpotta Road with Muhandiram Dabare Mawatha, after extending both roadways up to the canal. This area is still not developed, except for a reservation made for a playground on the Nawala side. A new roadway, which is only about half a km distance, is necessary, and this could be built without any problem linking these two roadways. Galpotta Road could be linked with Koswatta Road via Ratanajothi Mawatha, which crosses the Rajagiriya–Nawala Road, at Koswatta Junction.

The construction of these two new bridges, one across Kolonnawa Canal and the other across Kinda Canal, will provide a direct route from Colombo to Ethul Kotte, via Muhandiram Dabare Mawatha, Galpotta Road, Koswatta Road and New Jayaweera Mawatha. This link will reduce congestion, at present experienced on Kirimandala Road and Parliament Road.

 

Dr JANAKA RATNASIRI

Nawala

 

 

Continue Reading

Opinion

A tribute to my mother-in-law

Published

on

Appreciation

My mother-in-law, Mandrani Gunasekera, nee Malwatta, passed away peacefully in our home a few weeks ago. The funeral arrangements were complicated by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic situation, and the resultant weekend curfew in Colombo.

It is a privilege for me to reflect on my mother-in-law and her role in our lives. Vocationally, she was a practitioner of one of the noblest professions on earth, that of being a teacher, with the responsibility of educating and molding young lives. First in the public-school system, then overseas, and finally in Colombo’s leading international schools. As someone who topped her batch at the Peradeniya University, teaching was an unusual and perhaps unglamourous choice, but it demonstrated her commitment to the service of others.

In private life, she, was a mother to two daughters, one of whom is my wife, and their strength of character are a tribute to her. Her four grandchildren, including my two sons, are, I am sure, left in no doubt, that their mothers were raised in the home of a teacher, with a strong commitment to both education and discipline. I saw first-hand, that my mum-in- law, was an enabler and facilitator, guiding and molding her family. Her eldest grand-daughter, Thisuni Welihinde’s wedding late last year, was a milestone for her and we were never sure who was more excited, the bride or her grandmother.

To me, she was always “Ammi” and having lost my own mother when I was very young, I was determined to treat my wife’s mother, as I would my own. After my father- in- law’s death, a decade ago, it was a joy to care for my mother-in- law, in our home. Ammi was retired and lived a life of leisure. Which was a good counter balance to our own lives, which always seemed to be so hectic and rushed. I also learned from my mother -in-law, that being effective did not come from being prominent.

Ammi was also regular at Church, every Sunday, and was also an active member of a mid-week ladies Bible study, and prayer group, who were also her group of friends. They always ended their meetings, with brunch if not lunch. It was special joy that we were able to celebrate her 80th birthday with a “surprise party” at home, with her friends, about six weeks before her passing.

Ammi enjoyed the simple joys of life, and of our home, whether it was meal times, the constant chatter and boisterous behaviour of her two teenage grandsons, our weekend activities or family vacations to most of which she accompanied us. She was also an avid rugby fan, especially of Royal College rugby, since her brother had captained Royal and now her grandson was playing. In fact, she used to attend many matches and the 75th Bradby encounter last year, held in the shadow of the Easter Sunday bomb attacks, was her last, to witness her brother honoured on the field with other past captains and her grandson take the field, as a junior player.

This strange Covid-19 pandemic year, and its unprecedented lockdown ,enabled us to spend lots of time together, as family. Our lockdown daily routine, which included lots of sleep and rest, was centered on the daily family lunch, either preceded, or followed by family prayer. Ammi became the most committed and enthusiastic participant in our family mid-day gatherings. It was a great blessing, in disguise, that enabled us to spend the last few months, with noting much else to do, but enjoy each other’s company. While we miss her, we have the hope that she is with our Lord Jesus Christ. Her favourite Bible scripture in Psalm 91, states “He who dwells in the shelter of the Most High abides under the shadow of the Almighty …. and with long life I will satisfy him and show him, My salvation”.

 

By Harim Peiris

Continue Reading

Opinion

The Benefits of Homeschooling

Published

on

COVID-19 has changed our normal activities. What we were used to doing in 2019, is no longer a routine in 2020. In the midst of this pandemic the schools were closed down, and the decision to reopen schools by the Sri Lankan government and the trade unions speaking against it, made me ponder on an alternative.

Education in developing countries have often been a sensitive topic, Parents would leave no stone unturned to put their child to a ‘Big School’. How many of the classrooms in ‘Big Schools’ are capable of making seating arrangements by keeping a distance of one meter in accordance with the COVID-19 regulations?

Online Teaching has been introduced as an alternative, but isn’t there something better than that?

This would be the best time to introduce Homeschooling.

Homeschooling is where parents and guardians teach and groom their children. There are many parents capable of handling children and providing a comfortable atmosphere at home for a child to grow up and learn; there are parents who are skilled in particular trades and crafts, and teaching these to their children at a younger age gives the child an opportunity to be a skilled individual.

Several decades back the role of a Governess played an important role in upbringing children in Sri Lankan households. Many would have read about Helen Keller, a deaf and blind student who went on to be a graduate; she was groomed and taught by her governess Anne Sullivan, who taught her at home, this is a successful example of Homeschooling.

It is an arrogant attitude to scoff that parents groom their children into good citizens without sending them to school. Inferior Schooling and Teaching Methods have been a bane to a child’s psychology and mentally handicapping the confidence of a child. The truth is, schools no longer groom students, they have become Examination Centres, that judge the performance of their students through results.

It will be interesting to look into some of the criticisms made by sceptics on homeschooling. One is the subject knowledge of the parents; let’s be honest, how many of us use Titration in Chemistry in our daily lives, do we even want to try it? How many of us want to know the Chronology of the Kings that ruled the Country, has it ever disturbed us?

On the other hand, Homeschooling does not mean that teachers would no longer be needed, the teacher can play a broader role as a governess or a trainer to fill in the subject gaps that the parents are unable to provide for their child.

Another criticism is that children will not learn to socialise without schools. Isn’t Covid-19 regulations discouraging socialising by asking us to avoid public gatherings and maintaining a distance of 1 meter, isn’t socialising with a bad friend as disastrous as a deadly disease?

It will be interesting to see how the trade unions are going to respond to this if homeschooling becomes successful, as they will be the worst affected. But they could always become good Governesses or Subject Experts and play a guiding role in the homeschooling venture. This country now needs more Florence Nightingales to treat the sick and more Anne Sullivans to groom the kids.

 

HASALA PERERA

Continue Reading

Trending