Features
Lessons from Lockdown – Keeping COVID-19 in Perspective
by Anila Dias Bandaranaike
COVID-19 has caused a calamitous global crisis. While tens of millions have tested positive for this virus, over a million people have suffered and died from it. The first COVID-19 case was detected in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019. By November 15 2020, two sources of global statistics recorded about 54 million cases and 1.3 million deaths in 220 countries and territories (World Health Organisation (WHO), Worldometer). Today, medical research is being funded to find a vaccine to protect us humans against it. At the same time, countries are desperately trying to find ways to balance the fight against the spread of COVID-19 with keeping economic activities alive, so that people can have incomes, food, medicines and other basic needs to survive.
Lockdowns in many parts of the world and instructions to avoid crowds, ensure social distancing, wear masks and wash hands, have helped reduce further spread. However, many people, especially poor daily wage earners, have lost access to incomes, nutrition and medicines. Hence, the authorities have to balance these lockdowns, which minimise human interactions, with their economic consequences.
Meanwhile, the print and electronic media have gone more viral than the virus itself. COVID-19 takes priority over most news globally and locally. In Sri Lanka, posts early in this second wave reflected our penchant for playing the blame game. Unsourced video clips, WhatsApp forwards, articles and interviews, blamed, in turn and according to inherent prejudices, different players. These included the company which discovered the first case testing positive, all garment workers and manufacturers, the president, the government, Indians, etc. Rational, factual explanations on the subject were to no avail, such as procedures followed for quarantine of returnees from India and the difficulty in identifying positive but asymptomatic cases.
Perception and prejudice the Sri Lankan way conquered reality. A president, who was hailed a few months ago as being decisive and having everything “under control” the military way, is now blamed for being lax and allowing the virus to spread. Bogey-men of the past, Tamil “terrorists, Muslim “extremists” and Christian “convertors”, each irrationally equated with travel to India, gathering in mosques and churches, were blamed for the first wave. They have been completely overshadowed by “virus-spreading” garment workers of today. These workers have been ostracised in their neighbourhoods, their significant contribution to the economy forgotten, just because the first case identified in the second wave was a garment factory employee.
In the midst of this avalanche of information and misinformation, we need to get our own situation in perspective. In light of the rising number of positive cases in Sri Lanka since October 5, what exactly about COVID-19 is relevant for our future health and safety?
First, let us examine available statistics. We will need to rely on these statistics, despite some concerns about their accuracy. By November 15, Worldometer reported that in 39 million closed cases, 97% had recovered and 3% had died. Available medical evidence highlighted serious respiratory problems among severe or critical COVID-19 cases. Deaths related to those respiratory problems were usually complicated by other underlying health problems, often age-related. This implied that the elderly and those with certain health problems were more vulnerable.
We already experienced in Sri Lanka a few months ago, the outcome of the young, fit and healthy Navy cohort, who had tested positive for COVID-19. They showed few symptoms, were minimally ill and recovered within a few weeks. By October 5, Sri Lanka’s Health Authority had reported a total of 3,400 cases, with 3,260 recoveries and 13 deaths, leaving about 130 active cases. These statistics indicated over 99.6% recoveries and less than 0.4% deaths in 3,273 closed cases. Hence, Sri Lanka’s fatality rate was much lower than the current 3% global rate.
On November 15, with 16,583 total cases, recoveries at 11,495 and deaths at 53, active cases were 5,305 (hpb.health.gov.lk). The fatality rate was still relatively very low, at 0.5%. Against this background, we need to know:
1) How likely are Sri Lanka’s COVID-19 cases to become serious?
2) How likely is death from COVID-19 in Sri Lanka?
3) Can our health services handle the number of serious cases?
4) Who in our population are vulnerable to becoming serious COVID-19 cases and need protection
We also need to remember that our entire knowledge of this virus is from global experiences of less than one year. Theories abound, on its long-term health impact, on possible tests, on preventive means and possible medication. It is too early for any ongoing research to be conclusive. Humanity is still groping in semi-darkness. According to one reputed source in the literature, there have been more 200 tests (around 170 different molecular (PCR) tests, 37 antibody tests and 2 antigen tests) made available. The available scientific literature does not provide certainty about the accuracy (false positives and false negatives) of these tests. As more tests are being performed under varying conditions across the globe, the level of accuracy could also be compromised. Hence, while the reported number of positive cases has been rising fast, we really do not know the true extent of the spread anywhere. So, let us try to find answers to our questions with the available evidence.
How likely are Sri Lanka’s COVID-19 cases to become serious?
Regional comparison of available global statistics shows that fatality rates have, thus far, been much lower in Africa and Asia, than in the West. The Americas and Europe, holding 23% of world population, accounted for 76% of COVID-19 deaths. Asia and Africa, with 77% of world population, accounted for 24% of deaths. (Source:
Worldometer). Current global research is testing theories that in “developing” countries of Africa and Asia 1) greater previous exposure to viruses or 2) compulsory childhood inoculations against viruses, such as the BCG vaccine, had provided a higher resistance to COVID-19. Others theorise higher resistance in those regions due to diet or climate or a milder strain of the virus. Whatever the conclusions, evidenc points to a relatively lower severity of the disease in Sri Lanka, thus far.
How likely is death from COVID-19 in Sri Lanka?
Hard evidence up to November 15 indicated that the fatality rate was very low, at less than 0.5% of closed cases. Sri Lanka’s death rate from COVID-19, at 2 per million population, was also very low, ranking 185 among 220 countries and territories.
Can our health services handle the number of serious cases?
The Health Authority previously conveyed that hospitals had adequate capacity to handle 2,000 cases. Early in the second wave, it was conveyed that this would be increased. By November 15, Sri Lanka had over 5,000 active cases, significantly higher than hospitalisation capacity. Thus far, mild cases have not needed hospitalisation.
However, we do not know how many cases were serious and needed hospitalisation. From 8 months experience, we can expect the number of serious cases to be low. To date, the Health Authority has revised its strategies over time to meet changing needs in the country. It has not yet indicated inability to handle the changing hospitalisation load.
Who in our population are vulnerable to becoming serious COVID-19 cases and need protection? Global experience over the past 10 months has shown that the elderly and those with certain health-related pre-conditions (cancer, diabetes, heart disease, etc.) are at higher risk of severe respiratory complications from COVID-19. We need to ensure that those who are vulnerable in our homes and communities are protected from exposure to COVID-19. We can do so by following the precautionary instructions given by the Health Authority – wearing masks, washing hands, minimising exposure from and to others, avoiding crowds, social distancing, etc.
While positive cases rise, Sri Lanka’s experience of the past 8 months points to most cases recovering from a mild bout of the virus, unless they belong to an identified vulnerable group. Hence, it is not the spread of the virus per se, but to whom it is spreading, where and how, that should be our focus to bring it under control. We need to stop wasting time playing the blame game. We should refrain from all unauthenticated, unhelpful or sensationalised “forwards” or “news” in social or mainstream media. This only adds to panic and irrationality. If we act calmly and responsibly and abide by the instructions given by the Health Authority, we can bring COVID-19 under control. We need to do so urgently, before it spreads among the vulnerable in our population or exhausts our hospitalisation capacity.
(The author is a former Assistant Governor and Director of Statistics of
the Central Bank of Sri Lanka)
Features
Supermoon and lunar eclipse delight star gazers
A supermoon has lit up the sky across the world coinciding with a rare partial lunar eclipse.
The Moon could be seen to appear brighter and bigger on Tuesday night.
Supermoons happen when the Moon is at its closest point to Earth in its orbit.
A rare partial lunar eclipse – when the Earth’s shadow covers part of the Moon – also happened with about 4% of the Moon’s disc covered in darkness.
Over night from Tuesday into Wednesday, the partial lunar eclipse was visible across the globe – with some of the clearest sightings in the UK and the US.
In the UK it occurred between 01:40 BST and 05:47, reaching its peak at 03:44.
For those in the US, the eclipse is visible between 20:41 EST and 00:47 – or 22:44 at its maximum.
The eclipse was also visible in Latin America, Europe and Africa, as well as small parts of Asia and the Middle East .
This month’s full moon – known as the Harvest moon – is the second of four “supermoons” this year.
The next partial eclipse will be in August 2026, which will be special as around 96% of the Moon will be in shadow.
Features
Marketing gimmick or genuine commitment?
Ranil’s Theravada Alignment:
The Ranil’s manifesto claims that Sri Lanka became the “granary of the East” by adhering to Theravada economic policies, yet it does not explicitly define these policies. Instead, it contradicts this assertion by pointing out that Vietnam, a Mahayana Buddhist nation, followed Thailand’s lead. Despite Thailand’s traditional association with Theravada Buddhism, it adopted policies that resemble those of Mahayana-influenced countries like Japan. These policies, particularly in the tourism sector, introduced revolutionary changes that seem contrary to Theravada principles, further complicating the argument.
He also emphasized the relevance of Theravada Buddhism in addressing the challenges of a rapidly evolving world, driven by science and technology. Speaking virtually at the State Vesak Ceremony at Dharmaraja Piriven Viharaya, in Matale, on the 23 May 2024, he highlighted the need to preserve the core values of Theravada Buddhism and share its wisdom globally.
Buddhism, beyond its spiritual teachings, has deeply influenced socio-economic life across Asia. Theravada and Mahayana, the two main branches of Buddhism, offer contrasting views not only on religious practice but also on economic principles. Both schools emphasize ethical behaviour, compassion, and non-attachment to material possessions. However, their divergent philosophical outlooks lead to varying interpretations of economic activity, wealth accumulation, and societal roles.
Foundations of Economic Thought in Buddhism
The core teachings of Buddhism focus on the Middle Path, a balance between indulgence and asceticism, with the ultimate goal of reducing suffering (dukkha). These teachings shape both Theravada and Mahayana views on wealth and economics. Central to this framework is the Buddhist view of interdependence and the moral consequences of actions (karma). Economic activities, according to Buddhism, should align with ethical principles that promote collective well-being rather than personal greed.
Ranil cites the Samaññaphala Sutta to assert that in Theravada tradition, loans should be used for investments, not consumption. However, I could not find such a claim in the Samaññaphala Sutta (Fruits of the Contemplative Life, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu). Instead, according to the Singalovada Sutta, the Buddha taught that one should allocate only a quarter of their income for consumption, reinvest half of it to accumulate wealth, and reserve the remaining quarter for charity. Moreover, the Buddha emphasized, irrespective of Theravada or Mahayana, that failing to repay debts is a characteristic of an outcast (Wasalaya). This suggests that loans should be used for generating income to ensure repayment, rather than for daily consumption.
Theravada Economic Concepts
Theravada Buddhism, often regarded as more conservative and focused on individual liberation, emphasises personal responsibility in the accumulation and use of wealth. It is dominant in countries like Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia, where economic behaviours often reflect the ethical values promoted by the teachings.
However, Ranil claims that Theravada economic policies are more export-oriented, but in reality, countries following Mahayana principles have been more successful in establishing export-driven economies. These Mahayana-influenced nations, such as Japan and China, have achieved greater success in building robust export-oriented systems compared to traditionally Theravada countries.
In Theravada Buddhism, the goal of life is personal enlightenment (Nirvana), and material wealth is seen as a potential obstacle if it leads to attachment. While wealth is not condemned, its mindful use is emphasized. Individuals are encouraged to follow “right livelihood,” engaging in ethical professions that do not harm others. Wealth is valued when used for virtuous purposes, such as supporting family, charity, and religious institutions. Generosity (Dana) is a key practice, believed to purify the mind and aid spiritual growth. Theravada also promotes social stability through wealth distribution, with the laity supporting the monastic community in exchange for spiritual guidance, fostering economic interdependence without excess materialism.
Mahayana Economic Concepts
Mahayana Buddhism, prominent in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam), offers a broader, more inclusive approach to spiritual practice. It emphasizes the Bodhisattva ideal, where individuals work not only for their own enlightenment but also for the liberation of all beings. This collective focus shapes economic views, promoting wealth as a tool for social responsibility and reducing suffering on a societal level. Wealth is seen positively if used altruistically, encouraging large-scale philanthropy, social welfare, and efforts to address inequality. Unlike Theravada’s focus on personal morality, Mahayana stresses compassionate action (karuna) and societal transformation to tackle the root causes of poverty and inequality.
Wealth, Ethics, and Capitalism
In both Theravada and Mahayana, wealth is viewed through an ethical lens, but with distinct approaches. Mahayana, with its broader focus on social responsibility, aligns more easily with modern economic systems like capitalism, viewing wealth creation as an opportunity for the greater good if guided by ethical principles. Theravada, on the other hand, takes a more cautious stance, promoting a simpler lifestyle and warning against excessive material accumulation. In Theravada societies, the monastic community (Sangha) provides a moral check on economic inequality. Mahayana’s emphasis on compassion has also led to socially conscious enterprises in East Asia, prioritizing sustainability, fair labour, and ethical products, reflecting the Bodhisattva ideal of using wealth for humanitarian purposes.
Ranil claims that Theravada economic policies are more export-oriented, but in reality, countries following Mahayana principles have been more successful in establishing export-driven economies. These Mahayana-influenced nations, such as Japan and China, have achieved greater success in building robust export-oriented systems compared to traditionally Theravada countries.
Sri Lanka, as a predominantly Theravada Buddhist country, has a long history of intertwining its religious principles with governance and economic policies. However, a critical examination reveals that the country’s modern economic policies, shaped by globalization and capitalism, increasingly diverge from traditional Theravada Buddhist concepts. While Sri Lankan society continues to emphasize Buddhist values in various aspects of life, its capitalistic economic structure suggests a closer alignment with the broader, more flexible economic interpretations found in Mahayana Buddhism.
Sri Lanka’s Capitalistic Economic Policies
Post-independence Sri Lanka has seen significant shifts in its economic policy, particularly following the liberalization of the economy in 1977. These changes introduced free-market principles, deregulation, and foreign direct investment, which moved the country toward a capitalist economic model. The focus shifted from self-sufficiency and state-controlled economic activities to embracing global trade, privatization, and open markets.
The rise of private enterprise, multinational corporations, and consumer culture indicates a move away from the traditional Theravada ethos of simplicity and non-attachment. In this context, the rapid urbanization, expansion of tourism, and increasing wealth inequality seem more aligned with capitalist values, where material success and profit maximization are prioritized over ethical considerations of wealth distribution
Closer Alignment to Mahayana Economic Principles
Sri Lanka’s capitalist policies reflect this Mahayana-like flexibility. Wealth accumulation, entrepreneurship, and international trade are embraced, but with a growing focus on corporate social responsibility (CSR) and philanthropy. Large corporations and wealthy individuals are often seen contributing to charitable causes, building schools, hospitals, and donating to religious institutions. These actions mirror the Mahayana ideal of using wealth for the greater good, though not necessarily limiting personal accumulation.
He claims that many countries have succeeded by promoting private enterprises and that his Theravada economic system will be a much broader version of this. However, he does not clearly explain how this broader approach—typically associated with Mahayana tradition—aligns with Theravada principles. In fact, most of the economic concepts he references stem from Mahayana traditions. By invoking the term “Theravada,” he seems to be appealing to the Sri Lankan Buddhist community, assuming that people will be swayed by this rhetoric, much like they were with the Kelani River cobra myth and Safi’s allegations, which were sensationalized by certain media outlets.
Consumerism and Buddhist Values
Sri Lanka’s burgeoning consumer culture further highlights the tension between traditional Theravada values and the realities of a capitalist economy. The rise of consumerism, especially in urban centres, encourages material accumulation and status competition, which is antithetical to the Theravada emphasis on contentment and non-attachment. Advertising and media increasingly promote luxury goods and services, feeding a cycle of desire and consumption that stands in contrast to the Middle Path.
This mirrors trends seen in Mahayana Buddhist countries like Japan and China, where consumerism exists alongside Buddhist practice. In these countries, Buddhism has adapted to modern economic realities by focusing on charitable giving and social responsibility rather than strict asceticism.
Social Welfare and Wealth Redistribution
Sri Lanka’s current economic policies diverge from traditional Theravada Buddhism, which emphasizes wealth distribution through support for the Sangha and charitable acts. Instead, Sri Lanka has experienced growing inequality, with urban elites benefiting more from economic growth while rural and marginalized communities remain impoverished. In contrast, Mahayana Buddhism’s Bodhisattva ideal aligns with the state’s sporadic welfare programmes and redistributive policies, such as free education and healthcare. However, these programmes are often hindered by inefficiencies, corruption, and a capitalist system that prioritizes profit over equitable growth.
Conclusion
Ranil’s emphasis on aligning his policies with Theravada tradition appears to be more of a marketing gimmick or salesman’s puff—an overstated claim intended to persuade the predominantly Theravada Buddhist community, which believes that Theravada concepts are original Buddhism. This community has lost faith in his commitment to protecting Buddhism as required by the Constitution. By invoking Theravada values, he likely aims to regain their trust, despite the exaggeration or lack of doctrinal grounding in his statements.
Features
AKD pledges to protect energy sovereignty; Adani’s wind power projects to be cancelled
by Lasanda Kurukulasuriya
National People’s Power presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), on Sirasa TV’s Satana programme on Saturday (14) elaborated on aspects of the party’s policy statements that have been the subject of some controversy. Grilled by a panel of four journalists, he revealed details of some of the JVP-led alliance’s policies, and appeared to have somewhat revised others. On the subject of India’s stranglehold on Sri Lanka’s Power and Energy sector through agreements already entered into by government, AKD categorically declared that the Adani group’s controversial wind power projects in the North would be cancelled (Anivaarayenma meka cancel karanawa). This is an interesting development, considering that just seven months ago, in an interview on their return from a visit to India, the party suggested that India should have first call on tenders for major projects. In that interview with Sirasa, the JVP leader once known for an anti-Indian stance argued in a surprising turnaround, that projects would have to be ‘within NPP’s national policy framework’ but “within that, we should go for an agreement with India.” (The Island 15.04.24 – Is the JVP signalling left and turning right?)
In past months the NPP appears to have finetuned its campaign promises on how it proposes to fix a rotten political culture, by balancing an element continuity in policy with changes that would address needs of people hard-hit by the economic crisis. Among the key takeaways from the promised reforms under his presidency if elected, were, to put an end to political appointments, banish political protection of criminals, and remove Value Added Tax (VAT) from food as well as education and health related items. On the IMF agreement, he said their policy was not to exit it, but go forward with discussions on other ways of achieving its targets. There was no point in reaching targets on inflation, increased revenue, ratio of debt to GDP, etc., if the social impact was such that people suffered for lack of basic needs, he argued.
Energy sovereignty
Responding to a journalist’s question on how he proposed to address the threat to energy sovereignty posed by deals entered into with India’s Adani group, the JVP/NPP leader went into some detail on the dubious nature of the agreement. Power generated by Adani’s (500MW) wind power plants in Mannar and Pooneryn would be sold to Sri Lanka for 8.2 US cents per unit (kilo watt hour), while a bid from a local producer for a much smaller 50MW wind power plant in the same vicinity, around the same time, had offered a rate of 4.2 US cents per unit. There is something wrong here and we will definitely cancel this agreement, he said. Going further, he referred to the incongruity of India’s suggestion that Sri Lanka would be able to sell any surplus power that is generated, to India. (This was suggested by Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in talks with officials during his recent visit to Sri Lanka.) AKD claimed that India (while selling power to Sri Lanka at 8.2 US cents per unit) planned to buy any surplus of that same power, from Sri Lanka, at just 3.8 US cents per unit! Reference was also made to Bangladesh, whose new interim government is questioning the terms under which an Adani owned company in India is selling power to Bangladesh.
Dissanayake said that Indian companies would want an explanation from their government as to why Adani was given preference for the Mannar wind power project. However, he did not refer to Sri Lankan companies’ questioning of government on unsolicited proposals and bidding processes. This is at a time when local renewable energy producers are up in arms over step-motherly treatment. He said power generation could be opened up to the private sector, but that transmission and distribution should be controlled by the state. While the recently passed controversial Electricity (Amendment) Act was not specifically mentioned, it would seem that it would need to be repealed or amended under such a policy.
AKD also commented on the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm, in response to a question relating to ‘something signed by the President,’ on it. (‘Further development of the Oil Tank Farms’ was part of an MoU exchanged last year in India, by President Ranil Wickremesinghe with Indian PM Narendra Modi, on projects in the Trincomalee District.) Dissanayake said his party agreed with some of the conditions but rejected others.
The topic of the oil tanks was not brought up by India he said, but by him, in talks at the Indian High Commission in Colombo. A government under him would use between 8 to 16 tanks for fuel distribution in the North and East, and this would be a big saving when compared to the cost of transporting it from Colombo. The rest could be developed as a joint venture between Sri Lanka and India. He said it was ok to have an oil pipeline connecting Sri Lanka and India (one of the projects agreed on in the MoUs signed in Delhi). He referred to a new refinery to be handled by the Ceylon Petroleum Company (CPC) or a local company, noting that these were complex tasks. “Our location is good for a fuel hub” he said.
Asked about the Indo-Lanka Peace Agreement (of 1987), he said the joint development of the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm became a condition in it against a backdrop of Indian concerns over pro-US moves by the government at the time. Former President J. R. Jayewardene had allowed a Voice of America broadcasting station there, etc. The global balance of power is different now he said, and the US enters the picture having accepted India’s primacy in the region. Dissanayake said they were well aware of geopolitical developments and big power rivalry in the region.
Crime and politics
In relation to crime, a journalist referred to the raft of killings in broad daylight by gunmen using T56 rifles, witnessed in the streets ‘like a movie,’ not long ago. He noted that there was no IGP at present. Since the election was called, there have been no killings and no more talk of the underworld. Was it because politicians were busy with election work, he quipped. AKD in his response went on to list the names of notorious underworld characters, describing the power they wielded during the rule of presidents of the day, from JR to CBK to ‘the Rajapaksas.’ “Is this not political protection?” he asked. When narcotics are seized, the vehicles in which they are being transported are found to belong to politicians. Vowing to bust the nexus between politicians and organised crime, he said under his government no child will become a victim of drugs. We may be ‘small people’ but “we owe nothing, and fear nothing” (Api nayath ne, bayath ne)
No jumbo Cabinet
A JVP/NPP government’s Cabinet would be limited to 25 ministers, Dissanayake said. The number of deputy ministers would probably exceed that number, but there would be no ‘state ministers.’ The current ministers and state ministers enjoyed the same benefits, the only difference being that state ministers did not attend Cabinet meetings, he said. Asked about ‘Advisors to the President’ he said the maximum number of appointments would be 15.
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