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Key wins boost Indian PM Modi’s re-election bid

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Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to win three of the four key state elections in India ahead of the crucial general elections next year.

The BJP has a commanding lead in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress is comfortably ahead in the southern state of Telangana.

More than 160 million people or a sixth of India’s electorate were eligible to vote in the polls held in November. Counting of votes for a fifth state, Mizoram, is due on Monday.

Did these elections serve a litmus test for Mr Modi’s prospects in securing a historic third term in the upcoming general elections next year? In simpler terms, would a stronger performance by the Congress have indicated a potential setback for the BJP?

Not quite. In 2018, the Congress won three key state elections – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Three months later BJP swept the general elections nationally and in all the three states. State elections in India are fought over state or region specific concerns, while general elections revolve around more national-level issues.

Despite this dynamic, Sunday’s results come as a significant boost for PM Modi, who is already setting his sights on a record third term next year. The win is also significant because the BJP has frequently fallen short in state elections. Until today, the party – which enjoys a comfortable majority in parliament – governed 15 of India’s 28 states – and only nine of them directly. The rest were in coalition with smaller partners.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan during the amount distribution of Ladli Bahna Yojana, in Jabalpur.
BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s welfare benefits for women helped his party to win a record fifth term in Madhya Pradesh (pic BBC)

Regaining control of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh from the Congress and retaining Madhya Pradesh for a record fifth term means that the BJP is looking virtually unassailable in the “Hindi heartland” of northern and central India. Ten states in this Hindi-speaking belt send 225 MPs to the parliament – and BJP won 177 of the seats in 2019.

On the other hand, the elections were more important for the Congress.

An improved performance would have come as a huge morale booster and positioned the party as the natural leader of a fledgling alliance comprising 28 opposition parties, collectively known as INDIA. At one point, the party appeared to be leading in the race to win Madhya Pradesh and subsequently lost momentum as the BJP gained ground. The party has struggled to convert state victories into success in national elections in the past, and now it is failing to retain its state governments as well. Anti-incumbency is harsher on Congress.

But there is one silver lining. The Congress managed to wrest the southern state of Telangana, where the regional BRS party suffered from anti-incumbency. After a resounding win in Karnataka in May, it continues to make inroads into southern India.

So what were the factors that shaped voting behaviour in the recent polls? Beyond a track record of governance, considerations such as caste, identity, and the allure of BJP’s Hindu nationalism, welfare promises also seem to exert influence on voting patterns.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi takes a selfie with party’s general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, state chief Revanth Reddy and Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot during a roadshow ahead of the Telangana Assembly elections, at Malkajgiri in Hyderabad, Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023.
The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, wrested the southern state of Telangana from the regional BRS party

 

During his campaign, PM Modi announced that a scheme to provide 5kg of free grain a month to 800 million of India’s poorest people would continue for the next five years. The resurgence of his party in Madhya Pradesh was also credited to a programme offering a monthly stipend of 1,250 rupees [$16; £12] to eligible women from poorer families – women comprise some 47% of the 50 million voters in the state.

Many commentators called such welfarism by all parties competitive populism, but in reality it also underscored the vulnerable lives of millions of Indians who depend on state handouts to eke a decent living.

A nationwide poll by India Today magazine  survey in August showed Mr Modi’s popularity remained intact after a decade in power: more than half of the respondents felt he should continue to lead India.

Adding to the BJP’s formidable arsenal are its massive resources, a mammoth 24/7 party organisation, governance anchored in a robust welfare architecture, and a largely supportive media. It’s hardly surprising that Mr Modi and his party appear to be in a pole position to win a stunning third term next year.

(BBC)



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Qatar partially reopens airspace as Iranian strikes continue to hit Gulf

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A Qatar Airways Airbus A350-900 plane is seen in Doha, Qatar [File: Aljazeera]

Qatar has partially reopened its airspace days after Iranian missile and drone strikes forced the country to ground all flights as a United States-Israeli military campaign against Iran continues into its seventh day.

The Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced the limited opening on Friday evening, saying flights would operate through “designated navigational contingency routes with limited operational capacity” in coordination with the Qatari armed forces.

The move marks a cautious first step towards restoring air links to one of the Gulf’s most important aviation hubs but falls well short of a return to normality, with scheduled commercial flights to and from Doha remaining suspended until a further official announcement is made.

The Qatar Civil Aviation Authority said the partial reopening covers only a narrow category of flights “designated for passenger evacuation” and air cargo services.

Passengers with confirmed bookings were urged to follow updates from their airlines directly before travelling to the airport.

Early on Saturday, Qatar Airways said it “intends to operate repatriation flights on 07 March, departing Hamad International Airport to the following airports: London (LHR), Paris (CDG), Madrid (MAD), Rome (FCO), Frankfurt (FRA)”.

It added that priority would be given to “stranded passengers with families, elderly passengers, and those with urgent medical and compassionate travel needs”.

The Gulf country has been repeatedly struck by Iranian missiles and drones throughout the now seven-day conflict, forcing the country to activate its air force and use interceptors to defend its territory. Qatar’s Ministry of Defence confirmed the country had been struck by 14 ballistic missiles and four drones fired from Iran on Thursday.

More than 2,000 flights have been cancelled at Doha’s Hamad international airport since the conflict began.

Aviation across the Gulf

Across the Gulf, airports and airlines have been scrambling to manage the fallout from nearly a week of Iranian missile and drone barrages, launched in retaliation for the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign – codenamed Operation Epic Fury – which has killed at least 1,332 people in Iran since strikes began last Saturday, according to Iranian officials.

Emirates airline announced it is operating a reduced schedule while working to restore full network operations, carrying approximately 30,000 passengers out of Dubai on Friday alone.

By Saturday, the airline said it would have 106 daily return flights operating to 83 destinations, close to 60 percent of its full network, with a return to 100 percent expected “within the coming days, subject to airspace availability”.

Dubai international airport, the world’s busiest airport for international passengers, was evacuated on Sunday following Iranian strikes and has recorded close to 4,000 flight cancellations since Monday.

Abu Dhabi’s Zayed international airport has seen more than 1,000 cancellations and continues to operate at limited capacity.

Kuwait, also impacted by Iranian strikes, saw its airport undergo sustained physical damage in drone strikes, leaving some workers with minor injuries, and its airspace remains fully closed to commercial traffic.

Kuwait Airways has begun rerouting citizens with prior bookings through Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

An estimated 23,000 flights have been cancelled since late February, according to analytics firm Cirium.

[Aljazeera]

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Human rights court orders reparations for forced sterilization case in Peru

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Demonstrators stage a performance dedicated to the victims of forced sterilisation in Lima, Peru, on March 6 [Aljazeera]

The Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) has ordered Peru to pay reparations to the family of Celia Ramos, a mother of three whose death resulted from a campaign of forced sterilizations during the 1990s.

Thursday’s landmark ruling stated that the 34-year-old Ramos was coerced into sterilization against her will, causing an allergic reaction that led to her death.

The court ordered Peru to pay her family $340,000 as part of the ruling.

It noted that the Peruvian government had “failed to fulfill its obligation to initiate and conduct a thorough investigation” into Ramos’s case, heightening the strain on her family.

“Ms Ramos Durand’s family members — especially her three daughters, who were children at the time of the events — suffered profound harm as a consequence of the sterilization and death of Celia Edith Ramos Durand and the impunity surrounding the case,” the IACHR wrote in its decision.

Peru’s campaign of forced sterilization took place under the late President Alberto Fujimori, whose tenure included widespread human rights abuses that continue to cast a shadow over the country.

The scheme largely targeted poor and Indigenous women who were often tricked or coerced into sterilisation procedures.

This week’s ruling is the first time the human rights court has weighed in on the issue, which has been the subject of years of legal contestation in Peru.

“After almost 30 years of searching for justice, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights recognised the responsibility of the Peruvian state in the forced sterilization and death of Celia Ramos,” the Peruvian feminist organisation DEMUS said in a social media post, celebrating the ruling.

“This ruling marks a fundamental step in reparations for Celia, her family and the thousands of victims of forced sterilizations in Peru.”

As many as 314,000 women and 24,000 men were sterilized against their will in Peru under Fujimori’s government, which sought to forcibly lower the birth rate as a means of addressing poverty.

The procedures were particularly invasive for the women involved, and some suffered long-term complications, including death.

Family members often received little information about the circumstances that led to loved ones dying after the unnecessary operations. Some survivors did not realise what had happened to them until years later, when they discovered they were unable to have children.

In Ramos’s case, the 34-year-old mother had gone to a state health clinic for medical assistance on July 3, 1997, but was instead forced to undergo tubal ligation.

Ramos, however, suffered a severe allergic reaction during the procedure. She was placed in a recovery room, but the clinic was not able to treat her adequately.

In its decision, the IACHR explained that the clinic “lacked the necessary equipment and medications for adequate risk assessment or to handle emergencies”.

Ramos was ultimately transferred to an intensive care unit in the city of Piura, where she died 19 days later, on July 22, 1997.

The state did not carry out an autopsy and declined to share details with her family.

The compensation outlined in this week’s ruling includes reimbursement for the costs of medical procedures conducted to save Ramos’s life and the estimated loss of income from her death.

In October 2024, the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women at the United Nations ruled that Peru’s sterilization programme amounted to sex-based violence and discrimination against poor, rural and Indigenous women.

The committee’s statement cited a lack of adequate medical facilities and a lack of informed consent, just as the IACHR did in its decision this week.

“The victims described a consistent pattern of being coerced, pressured, or deceived into undergoing sterilizations at clinics lacking proper infrastructure or trained personnel,” committee member Leticia Bonifaz said.

“The procedures were carried out without informed consent from these victims, with some of them, especially those from remote areas, unable to read and speak Spanish, or fully understand the nature of the procedure.”

Scholars have concluded that Fujimori’s sterilization campaign was driven, in part, by racist views among government officials who saw rural, Indigenous communities as an obstacle to economic modernisation.

[Aljazeera]

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Cost to US for war on Iran is $3.7bn in first 100 hours, says think tank

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A US B-2 bomber, like those used in the ongoing attacks in Iran, returns from a massive strike on Iranian nuclear sites last year [File: Aljazeera]

The United States-Israeli war on Iran is estimated to have cost Washington $3.7bn so far in its first 100 hours alone, or nearly $900m a day, driven largely by the huge expenditure of munitions, according to new research.

An analysis by Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) underlined the colossal cost of the war, which entered its seventh day on Friday,  as the US attacks Iran with stealth bombers and advanced weapons systems.

Researchers Mark Cancian and Chris Park said only a small amount of the estimated $3.7bn cost of the war in the first 100 hours – or $891.4m each day – was already budgeted for, while most of the costs – $3.5bn – were not.

That meant the Pentagon would likely need to request more funding soon to cover the unbudgeted costs, they said, which was likely to prove a political challenge for the Trump administration and provide “a focal point for opposition to the war,” they said.

Domestic cost-of-living concerns, inflation, and now a knock-on effect of rising gas prices due to the conflict are likely to further diminish support among US citizens for the war. It is also dividing Trump’s “America First” base, which he had promised in his presidential campaigns to not enter “foreign wars”.

Noting that the US Department of Defense had released limited specifics on its operations, the researchers said their analysis drew on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of the operations and support costs for each unit, adjusting for inflation and unit size, and adding 10 percent for costs of “a higher operational tempo”.

Their analysis said the US had expended more than 2,000 munitions of various types in the first 100 hours of the war, and estimated it would cost $3.1bn to replenish the munitions inventory on a like-for-like basis, with the costs increasing by $758.1m a day.

(Aljazeera)

 

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