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Jumping to conclusions!

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Flight AI 178

We live in an era of information overload where immediate answers are demanded for even the most complex of questions that may need detailed investigations which, invariably, takes time. This culture has produced a breed of internet experts who are not shy to express their opinions, however inaccurate they turn out to be subsequently. Based on these opinions social media gets overloaded with inaccurate, often harmful and hurtful, comments. The recent tragedy of the Air India crash well illustrates this danger of jumping to conclusions.

On Thursday 12th, a hot sunny day with cloudless skies, Air India flight AI171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner flown by Captain Sumeet Sabharwal and his co-pilot Clive Kundar took to the skies from Gujarat’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport in Ahmedabad on its nine and half-hour journey to London Gatwick airport. The two pilots were highly experienced; Sabharwal having experience as a commercial airline pilot for 22 years, clocking over 10,000 flying hours and Kundar over 3000 flying hours. Sabharwal resembles Dev Anand and is said to have done his impersonations! He was planning to take early retirement to look after his aging father.

The flight, which took off at 13.39 local time, lasted just under 40 seconds, struggling to gain height and slowly descending on a residential area crashing with a loud bang and a ball of fire which damaged many buildings including a doctor’s accommodation in BJ Medical College and Civil Hospital. Of the 242 on board, which included the two pilots and ten cabin crew, the only survivor was the British national Vishwashkumar Ramesh, seated in seat 11A. He must have had a personal god that protected him! Around 30, including 5 medical students, also died and many others have been injured.

Shortly after the crash, a video surfaced on the internet. It was filmed by 17 years old Aryan Asari who had come from his village, to accompany his sister who was sitting for police entrance examination, and arrived in his father’s upstairs room with a balcony, just an hour before the crash. Aryan, who used to run out to plane spot whenever he heard the roar of an aircraft engine even in the village, was delighted he could film aircraft movements on his phone, at close range, but what he recorded horrified him. He sent a copy to his father who advised him not to send it to anyone else but, by this time, he had sent to a few of his friends too. Someone had videoed this from one of those phones and uploaded it to YouTube. Experts started commenting on the cause of the crash based on this copy of the video.

The other important piece of evidence, which experts could comment on, was provided by the only survivor, who jumped out of the burning aircraft, with only minor injuries. He recollected a banging noise, as well as flickering of lights shortly before the aircraft crashed. Though some experts considered these observations vital, others disregarded stating that someone undergoing such trauma would not have valid recollections.

The next day, Captain Steve, a retired pilot of American Airlines, who has a massive following on Tick-Tock, Instagram and his YouTube Channel, which deals with all matters flying, uploaded a video giving his opinion. Based on the fact that the video indicated, that the flaps were not extended, a manoeuvre which helps the lift of the aircraft, and the undercarriage was not lifted, which would have increased the drag hampering the ability to ascend, opined:

“Here’s what I think happened, again folks this is just my opinion. I think the pilot flying said to the co-pilot ‘gear up’ at the appropriate time. I think the co-pilot grabbed the flap handle and raised the flaps, instead of the gear. If that happened, this explains a lot of why this airplane stopped flying.”

In short, he jumped to the conclusion that it was pilot error that brought AI171 down. Not only his video went viral but also media around the world started reporting that the accident was due to pilot error. Sideline critics started bombarding social media hurling insults at the dead pilots. The headline in Leicestershire Alive, an area from which a few of the 53 British Nationals originated, had this headline: “Air India crash: Chilling mistake co-pilot ‘made’ seconds before horror killed 241 people”

He had to eat humble pie, the next day, as the original video showed a different picture altogether, as it had much better definition. The wing flaps probably were extended and the appearance of the undercarriage showed that it was arrested in the process of being lifted. Even more important a finding was that the power supply of last resort, the Ram Air Turbine (RAT) had been deployed. This is a little turbine that automatically comes out of the belly of the aircraft when both engines or all hydraulics and back-up power supply fails. It provides minimum power for the pilots to do a guided descent in case of engine failure at high altitudes but was not helpful as the aircraft was only around 400 feet above ground in this instance. The boom the only survivor heard could be due to the deployment of the RAT and the flickering lights too were due to the switch of power supply.

Captain Steve corrected himself and tendered an apology, stating that the accident was extremely unlikely to be due to a pilot error, postulating that the most likely cause is double engine failure, which is an extremely rare event. However, he got himself in further trouble by questioning the fluency of the pilots. He wondered whether the pilot’s communication with the air traffic control “Mayday, Mayday, no thrust, losing power, unable to lift” was in the mother tongue than English!

Double engine failure can happen with bird strikes and due to contaminated fuel but both these seem to have been excluded. This leaves the possibility of computer failure though nearly 1200 Dreamliners have flown over the last 14 years without a crash but there were initial problems like lithium battery fires. After all, the problem with 737 Max was due to the new programme MCAS. I am beginning to question the wisdom of increasing computeriation of modern aircraft!

The black boxes have been found and one is supposed to be damaged. Despite the Indian Government setting up a new facility for this purpose in New Delhi, it is rumoured that the Indian authorities are considering sending the damaged black box to USA for analysis. Considering the chaotic affairs of the NASA and Boeing, I wonder why they are not considering the more prudent option of sending the black boxes to an unaffected country like France. Till the analysis of data in the black boxes are complete, it is almost impossible for any expert to state the reason for this tragic accident though the internet would continue to be flooded with numerous expert opinions!

Whatever the cause, this crash has significant implications for Boeing as well as Air India. Tata, which took over Air India, consolidating with other budget carriers, is very ambitious with the programme of expansion. It is bound to take lessons and improve standards with the support of Singapore Airlines which owns a stake.

As far as Boeing is concerned this is a headache they could have done without as it already bogged down with many problems, losing custom to Airbus. If the cause of the crash is found to be due to a technical problem, it would be in severe trouble. Incidentally, my first encounter with the Dreamliner, about 10 years ago, was not a happy one. We were flying from Osaka to Bangkok, on our way to Colombo, and were in the gate awaiting boarding. After sometime an announcement was made that there would be a delay and I could see engineers struggling with one of the engines of the All Nippon Airways Dreamliner we were due to fly on. I was hoping that another aircraft would fly us! Though we had to rough out, sleeping overnight on seats, my heart started beating normally only when a substitute Dreamliner arrived from Tokyo to fly us to Bangkok. We missed the connecting SriLankan flight and had to spend another eight hours in Bangkok!

Considering all this, I would probably avoid flying on a Dreamliner, at least till the Air Accident Investigation report on AI171 is out!

By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana



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Opinion

Capt. Dinham Suhood flies West

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A few days ago, we heard the sad news of the passing on of Capt. Dinham Suhood. Born in 1929, he was the last surviving Air Ceylon Captain from the ‘old guard’.

He studied at St Joseph’s College, Colombo 10. He had his flying training in 1949 in Sydney, Australia and then joined Air Ceylon in late 1957. There he flew the DC3 (Dakota), HS748 (Avro), Nord 262 and the HS 121 (Trident).

I remember how he lent his large collection of ‘Airfix’ plastic aircraft models built to scale at S. Thomas’ College, exhibitions. That really inspired us schoolboys.

In 1971 he flew for a Singaporean Millionaire, a BAC One-Eleven and then later joined Air Siam where he flew Boeing B707 and the B747 before retiring and migrating to Australia in 1975.

Some of my captains had flown with him as First Officers. He was reputed to have been a true professional and always helpful to his colleagues.

He was an accomplished pianist and good dancer.

He passed on a few days short of his 97th birthday, after a brief illness.

May his soul rest in peace!

To fly west my friend is a test we must all take for a final check

Capt. Gihan A Fernando

RCyAF/ SLAF, Air Ceylon, Air Lanka, Singapore Airlines, SriLankan Airlines

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Opinion

Global warming here to stay

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The cause of global warming, they claim, is due to ever increasing levels of CO2. This is a by-product of burning fossil fuels like oil and gas, and of course coal. Environmentalists and other ‘green’ activists are worried about rising world atmospheric levels of CO2.  Now they want to stop the whole world from burning fossil fuels, especially people who use cars powered by petrol and diesel oil, because burning petrol and oil are a major source of CO2 pollution. They are bringing forward the fateful day when oil and gas are scarce and can no longer be found and we have no choice but to travel by electricity-driven cars – or go by foot.  They say we must save energy now, by walking and save the planet’s atmosphere.

THE DEMON COAL

But it is coal, above all, that is hated most by the ‘green’ lobby. It is coal that is first on their list for targeting above all the other fossil fuels. The eminently logical reason is that coal is the dirtiest polluter of all. In addition to adding CO2 to the atmosphere, it pollutes the air we breathe with fine particles of ash and poisonous chemicals which also make us ill. And some claim that coal-fired power stations produce more harmful radiation than an atomic reactor.

STOP THE COAL!

Halting the use of coal for generating electricity is a priority for them. It is an action high on the Green party list.

However, no-one talks of what we can use to fill the energy gap left by coal. Some experts publicly claim that unfortunately, energy from wind or solar panels, will not be enough and cannot satisfy our demand for instant power at all times of the day or night at a reasonable price.

THE ALTERNATIVES

It seems to be a taboo to talk about energy from nuclear power, but this is misguided. Going nuclear offers tried and tested alternatives to coal. The West has got generating energy from uranium down to a fine art, but it does involve some potentially dangerous problems, which are overcome by powerful engineering designs which then must be operated safely. But an additional factor when using URANIUM is that it produces long term radioactive waste.  Relocating and storage of this waste is expensive and is a big problem.

Russia in November 2020, very kindly offered to help us with this continuous generating problem by offering standard Uranium modules for generating power. They offered to handle all aspects of the fuel cycle and its disposal.  In hindsight this would have been an unbelievable bargain. It can be assumed that we could have also used Russian expertise in solving the power distribution flows throughout the grid.

THORIUM

But thankfully we are blessed with a second nuclear choice – that of the mildly radioactive THORIUM, a much cheaper and safer solution to our energy needs.

News last month (January 2026) told us of how China has built a container ship that can run on Thorium for ten years without refuelling.  They must have solved the corrosion problem of the main fluoride mixing container walls. China has rare earths and can use AI computers to solve their metallurgical problems – fast!

Nevertheless, Russia can equally offer Sri Lanka Thorium- powered generating stations. Here the benefits are even more obviously evident. Thorium can be a quite cheap source of energy using locally mined material plus, so importantly, the radioactive waste remains dangerous for only a few hundred years, unlike uranium waste.

Because they are relatively small, only the size of a semi-detached house, such thorium generating stations can be located near the point of use, reducing the need for UNSIGHTLY towers and power grid distribution lines.

The design and supply of standard Thorium reactor machines may be more expensive but can be obtained from Russia itself, or China – our friends in our time of need.

Priyantha Hettige

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Opinion

Will computers ever be intelligent?

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Alan Turin and the Turin machine

The Island has recently published various articles on AI, and they are thought-provoking. This article is based on a paper I presented at a London University seminar, 22 years ago.

Will computers ever be intelligent? This question is controversial and crucial and, above all, difficult to answer. As a scientist and student of philosophy, how am I going to answer this question is a problem. In my opinion this cannot be purely a philosophical question. It involves science, especially the new branch of science called “The Artificial Intelligence”. I shall endeavour to answer this question cautiously.

Philosophers do not collect empirical evidence unlike scientists. They only use their own minds and try to figure out the way the world is. Empirical scientists collect data, repeat and predict the behaviour of matter and analyse them.

We can see that the question—”Will computers ever be intelligent?”—comes under the branch of philosophy known as Philosophy of Mind. Although philosophy of mind is a broad area, I am concentrating here mainly on the question of consciousness. Without consciousness there is no intelligence. While they often coincide in humans and animals, they can exist independently, especially in AI, which can be highly intelligent without being conscious.

AI and philosophers

It appears that Artificial Intelligence holds a special attraction for philosophers. I am not surprised about this as Al involves using computers to solve problems that seem to require human reasoning. Apart from solving complicated mathematical problems it can understand natural language. Computers do not “understand” human language in the human sense of comprehension; rather, they use Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning to analyse patterns in data. Artificial Intelligence experts claim certain programmes can have the possibility of not only thinking like humans but also understanding concepts and becoming conscious.

The study of the possible intelligence of logical machines makes a wonderful test case for the debate between mind and brain. This debate has been going on for the last two and a half centuries. If material things, made up entirely of logical processes, can do exactly what the brain can, the question is whether the mind is material or immaterial.

Although the common belief is that philosophers think for the sake of thinking, it is not necessarily so. Early part of the 20th century brought about advances in logic and analytical philosophy in Britain. It was a philosopher (Ludwig Wittgenstein) who invented the truth table. This was a simple analytic tool useful in his early work. But this was absolutely essential to the conceptual basis of early computer science. Computer science and brain science have developed together and that is why the challenge of the thinking machine is so important for the philosophy of mind. My argument so far has been to justify how and why AI is important to philosophers and vice versa.

Looking at computers now, we can see that the more sophisticated the computer, the more it is able to emulate rather than stimulate our thought processes. Every time the neuroscientists discover the workings of the brain, they try to mimic brain activity with machines.

How can one tell if a computer is intelligent? We can ask it some questions or set a test and study its response and satisfy ourselves that there is some form of intelligence inside this box. Let us look at the famous Alan Turing Test. Imagine a person sitting at a terminal (A) typing questions. This terminal is connected to two other machines, (B) and (C). At terminal (B) sits another person (B) typing responses to the questions from person (A). (C) is not a human being, but a computer programmed to respond to the questions. If person (A) cannot tell the difference between person (B) and computer(C), then we can deduce that computer is as intelligent as person (B). Critics of this test think that there is nothing brilliant about it. As this is a pragmatic exercise and one need not have to define intelligence here. This must have amused the scientists and the philosophers in the early days of the computers. Nowadays, computers can do much more sophisticated work.

Chinese Room experiment

The other famous experiment is John Sealer’s Chinese room experiment. *He uses this experiment to debunk the idea that computers could be intelligent. For Searle, the mind and the brain are the same. But he warns us that we should not get carried away with the emulative success of the machines as mind contains an irreducible subjective quality. He claims that consciousness is a biological process. It is found in humans as well as in certain animals. It is interesting to note that he believes that the mind is entirely contained in the brain. And the empirical discovery of neural processes cannot be applied to outside the brain. He discards mind-body dualism and thinks that we cannot build a brain outside the body. More commonly, we believe the mind is totally in the brain, and all firing together and between, and what we call ‘thought’ comes from their multifarious collaboration.

Patricia and Paul Churchland are keen on neuroscientific methods rather than conventional psychology. They argue that the brain is really a processing machine in action. It is an amazing organ with a delicately organic structure. It is an example of a computer from the future and that at present we can only dream of approaching its processing speed. I think this is not something to be surprised about. The speed of the computer doubles every year and a half and in the distant future there will be machines computing faster than human beings. Further, the Churchlands’, strongly believe that through science one day we will replicate the human brain. To argue against this, I am putting forward the following true story.

I remember watching an Open University (London) education programme some years ago. A team of professors did an experiment on pavement hawkers in Bogota, Colombia. They were fruit sellers. The team bought a large number of miscellaneous items from these street vendors. This was repeated on a number of occasions. Within a few seconds, these vendors did mental calculations and came out with the amounts to be paid and the change was handed over equally fast. It was a success and repeatable and predictable. The team then took the sample population into a classroom situation and taught them basic arithmetic skills. After a few months of training they were given simple sums to do on selling fruit. Every one of them failed. These people had the brain structure that of ordinary human beings. They were skilled at their own jobs. But they could not be programmed to learn a set of rules. This poses the question whether we can create a perfect machine that will learn all the human transferable skills.

Computers and human brains excel at different tasks. For instance, a computer can remember things for an infinite amount of time. This is true as long as we don’t delete the computer files. Also, solving equations can be done in milliseconds. In my own experience when I was an undergraduate, I solved partial differential equations and it took me hours and a lot of paper. The present-day students have marvellous computer programmes for this. Let alone a mere student of mathematics, even a mathematical genius couldn’t rival computers in the above tasks. When it comes to languages, we can utter sentences of a completely foreign language after hearing it for the first time. Accents and slang can be decoded in our minds. Such algorithms, which we take for granted, will be very difficult for a computer.

I always maintain that there is more to intelligence than just being brilliant at quick thinking. A balanced human being to my mind is an intelligent person. An eccentric professor of Quantum Mechanics without feelings for life or people, cannot be considered an intelligent person. To people who may disagree with me, I shall give the benefit of the doubt and say most of the peoples’ intelligence is departmentalised. Intelligence is a total process.

Other limitations to AI

There are other limitations to artificial intelligence. The problems that existing computer programmes can handle are well-defined. There is a clear-cut way to decide whether a proposed solution is indeed the right one. In an algebraic equation, for example, the computer can check whether the variables and constants balance on both sides. But in contrast, many of the problems people face are ill-defined. As of yet, computer programmes do not define their own problems. It is not clear that computers will ever be able to do so in the way people do. Another crucial difference between humans and computers concerns “common sense”. An understanding of what is relevant and what is not. We possess it and computers don’t. The enormous amount of knowledge and experience about the world and its relevance to various problems computers are unlikely to have.

In this essay, I have attempted to discuss the merits and limitations of artificial intelligence, and by extension, computers. The evolution of the human brain has occurred over millennia, and creating a machine that truly matches human intelligence and is balanced in terms of emotions may be impossible or could take centuries

*The Chinese Room experiment, proposed by philosopher John Searle, challenges the idea that computers can truly “understand” language. Imagine a person locked in a room who does not know Chinese. They receive Chinese symbols through a slot and use an instruction manual to match them with other symbols to produce correct replies. To outsiders, it appears the person understands Chinese, but in reality, they are only following rules. Searle argues that similarly, a computer may process language convincingly without genuine understanding or consciousness.

by Sampath Anson Fernando

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