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IMF Staff reaches staff-level agreement on the Fifth Review under Sri Lanka’s Extended Fund Facility Arrangement

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  • IMF staff and the Sri Lankan authorities have reached staff-level agreement on economic policies to conclude the Fifth Review of Sri Lanka’s reform program supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility. Once the review is approved by the IMF Executive Board, Sri Lanka will have access to about US$347 million in financing.
  • The economic reforms implemented by the Sri Lankan authorities have continued to support the recovery, with inflation progressing to target, reserves accumulating, and real GDP growth and revenue mobilization outperforming expectations. Performance under the program has been strong.
  • Advancing reforms is key to ensuring macroeconomic stability, anchoring the recovery, and equipping Sri Lanka to better withstand external shocks amid an uncertain global environment

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission team led by Mr. Evan Papageorgiou visited Sri Lanka from September 24 to October 9, 2025, to discuss recent macroeconomic developments and progress in implementing economic and financial policies under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. At the end of the mission, Mr. Papageorgiou issued the following statement:

“IMF staff and the Sri Lankan authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Fifth Review under the 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement . The arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board for a total amount of SDR 2.3 billion (about US$3 billion) on March 20, 2023.

“The staff-level agreement is subject to IMF Executive Board approval, contingent on: (i) Parliamentary approval of the 2026 Appropriation Bill in line with program parameters and (ii) the completion of the financing assurances review, to confirm multilateral partners’ financing contributions and assess adequate progress with debt restructuring.

“Upon completion of the Executive Board review, Sri Lanka would have access to SDR 254 million (about US$347 million), bringing the total IMF financial support disbursed under the arrangement to SDR 1,524 million (about US$2.04 billion).

“Sri Lanka’s ambitious reform agenda continues to deliver commendable outcomes. The economy grew by 4.8 percent y/y in 2025H1 and we expect growth to remain solid in 2025. Inflation has returned to positive territory and in September prices rose by 1.5 percent y/y. Gross official reserves reached US$6.1 billion at end-September 2025. Fiscal performance in 2025H1 has been strong, primarily supported by taxes on motor vehicle imports. Debt restructuring is nearing completion.

“Program performance is strong, underpinned by good fiscal revenue outcomes and improvements in external resilience. The reform momentum should be sustained to safeguard macroeconomic stability and enhance Sri Lanka’s resilience to shocks. This is particularly important given heightened downside risks to the economy from persistent trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

“The 2026 Budget should be in line with program parameters to continue building fiscal space on the back of strong revenue measures and prudent spending execution. This requires sustained efforts to improve tax compliance, broaden the tax base, and tackle revenue leakages by strengthening the tax exemption frameworks. Enhancing public financial management, avoiding the reemergence of expenditure arrears, and promoting high-quality and efficient public expenditure, including by addressing capital spending under-execution, will contribute to safeguarding fiscal discipline and transparency.

“At the same time, it is instrumental to maintain cost-recovery energy pricing, strengthen the governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and resolve their legacy debts to ensure financial viability and minimize fiscal risks. Upcoming bills on public-private partnerships, SOEs, public procurement, and public asset management should be consistent with the Public Financial Management Act and best practices.

“Protecting the poor and vulnerable should remain a priority. There is scope to strengthen the design of the welfare benefit payment scheme to improve the targeting, adequacy, and coverage of social spending.

“Accelerating the finalization of bilateral debt agreements with the remaining official and commercial creditors is key to restoring debt sustainability and improving investor confidence. A swift operationalization of the Public Debt Management Office will be a key step towards prudent debt management practices.

“It is important for monetary policy to remain data-driven and to ensure price stability. Central bank independence should continue to be safeguarded, including by continuing to refrain from monetary financing of the budget. Efforts should continue to rebuild external buffers through reserve accumulation to adequate levels, while allowing for exchange rate flexibility. Resolving non-performing loans, strengthening governance and oversight of state-owned banks, and improving the insolvency and resolution frameworks are important to foster credit growth and safeguard financial sector stability.

“It is crucial to speed up the implementation of governance reforms outlined in the government’s action plan. Advancing procurement reforms, strengthening the AML/CFT framework, prioritizing anti-corruption measures in revenue administration, including digitalization, and implementation of electronic asset declarations will contribute to reducing corruption vulnerabilities. Recruitment at the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) should be accelerated and CIABOC’s independence safeguarded in line with the Anti-Corruption Act. Structural reforms will be key to lifting Sri Lanka’s potential growth.

“The IMF team held meetings with His Excellency President and Finance Minister Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Honorable Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, Honorable Labor Minister and Deputy Minister of Economic Development Prof. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Honorable Minister of Industry Mr. Sunil Handunnetti, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Treasury Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma, Senior Economic Advisor to the President Mr. Duminda Hulangamuwa, Chief Advisor to the President on Digital Economy Dr. Hans Wijayasuriya, Governor of Central Province Prof. Sarath Abayakon, and other senior government and CBSL officials. The IMF team also met with parliamentarians, representatives from the private sector, civil society organizations, and development partners.

“We would like to thank the authorities for the excellent collaboration during the mission, including while visiting the Central and Uva provinces. We reaffirm our commitment to support Sri Lanka achieve strong, sustainable growth.”

 



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President AKD unveils reforms to anchor 7% growth target

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President AKD presenting Budget 2026 in parliament.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in a pivotal address presenting the National Budget for 2026 in parliament yesterday, announced reforms to dismantle hurdles for Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), highlighted by a firm commitment to evaluate state land for investor use.

“Sri Lanka’s land parcel will be properly evaluated, and the government will determine which lands could be made available for investors bringing in foreign direct investments as making lands available for FDIs has been an obstacle in bringing foreign direct investments,” President Dissanayake stated, emphasising a renewed focus on the investment climate. He pointed out that foreign investor confidence is currently being strengthened as Sri Lanka progresses on its economic stability and growth trajectory.

In tandem with the land policy, the President confirmed that the process of monitoring, regulation, and management of state assets is underway, alongside the crucial amendment of the Strategic Development Projects Act and the Port City Act. He further announced that the State Asset Management Act will be amended in 2026, and the State Commercial Enterprises Act is being introduced to Parliament, signaling a profound structural overhaul of state sector governance. The foundational Investment Protection Act will also be passed in the first half of 2026.

The President underscored the government’s success in achieving state fiscal stability, noting that the country is currently moving towards anchoring an economic growth of 7% in the medium term. Key economic indicators have demonstrated resilience, with the government taking maximum measures to maintain inflation below the 5% level, and the exchange rate being kept at a stable level despite global shocks.

He projected the fiscal strength to hit a historical high, with the highest primary surplus in history set to be marked next year. State revenue, which increased by 900 billion rupees compared to last year, is expected to drive the revenue-to-GDP ratio to 16% in 2025, with a long-term goal of bringing state revenue to the 20% level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The government also plans to increase state investments by 4%, stressing the need for capital expenditure to be increased while systematically reducing recurrent expenditure.

On the debt front, the President stated that the country’s debt percentage is already approaching the 95% target, and the government expects to reduce the overall state debt to 87% by the year 2030. Foreign creditors have agreed to provide relief based on the progress of debt restructuring. Out of a total debt servicing requirement of USD 2,435 million, USD 1,941 million has been settled, though foreign debt servicing is up by $760 million this year compared to last year. The national carrier, SriLankan Airlines, is also slated for comprehensive restructuring, with its debt – now around USD 210 million) – to be restructured by the end of this year.

The budget allocates substantial funds and policy initiatives to spur investment and trade as follows:

The country received $823 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2025.

An additional 1,000 million rupees is allocated for services related to Investment Zones.

A residential visa scheme is being introduced for foreign investors.

Rs. 2,500 million is allocated for investment facilitation, including the National Single Trade Window.

To boost competitiveness, an extra 250 million rupees is allocated for the National Export Development Plan, which aims to connect with global value chains and keep export income exceeding $2 billion per month.

Investment incentives include a five-year tax holiday for investors installing communication towers, Rs. 750 million allocated to encourage startups and innovation, and Rs. 21 billion for Research and Development.

The government has noted that the stock market experienced historical growth in 2025, while unemployment reduced to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025.

The budget detailed key infrastructure projects to support future growth and social welfare measures.

Rs 1 billion is allocated to redevelop domestic airports in Trincomalee, Jaffna, Sigiriya, and Hingurakgoda, and work on the stalled Katunayake International Airport expansion will commence next year.

The government will establish two new IT parks in Digana and Nuwara Eliya under a PPP scheme, while Rs 1.5 billion is allocated to two state banks to settle contractor dues for the idling IT parks in Galle and Kurunegala.

For tourism, Rs 3 billion is allocated to develop domestic tourism hotspots and fund an international destination campaign, targeting USD 8 billion in revenue and 4 million tourist arrivals by 2030.

On the social front, Public sector employee salaries are being increased in 3 phases already. Social safety net expenditure will be maintained at a minimum of 4%, supported by a programme underway to eliminate rural poverty and ensure the benefits of development reach everyone. The President also announced that the government would provide broadband vouchers to children of Aswesuma beneficiary families.

The President concluded by reaffirming an assurance that the public’s tax revenue is being managed with accountability, moving toward an economic system based on equity instead of privilege.

by Sanath Nanayakkare

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Emirates Group hits new half-year profit record for 2025-26

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The Emirates Group announced a new record half-year financial performance, posting a profit before tax of AED 12.2 billion (US$ 3.3 billion) for the first six months of 2025-26, making this the fourth consecutive year of record profitability for the half-year reporting period.

Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum

After accounting for income tax charges, the Group’s profit after tax is AED 10.6 billion (US$ 2.9 billion), up 13% from last year.

Illustrating its strong operating performance, the Group maintained a robust EBITDA of AED 21.1 billion (US$ 5.7 billion), 3% higher than the AED 20.4 billion (US$ 5.6 billion) reported for the same period last year.

Group revenue was AED 75.4 billion (US$ 20.6 billion) for the first six months of 2025-26, up 4% from AED 70.8 billion (US$ 19.3 billion) last year.

The Group closed the first half year of 2025-26 with a record cash position of AED 56.0 billion (US$ 15.2 billion) on 30 September 2025, compared to AED 53.4 billion (US$ 14.6 billion) on 31 March 2025. The Group has been able to tap on its own strong cash reserves to support business needs, including funding for new aircraft deliveries and servicing existing debt obligations.

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How SL’s ‘demographic slowdown’ could snag future economic growth

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UNFPA Officer-in- Charge Phuntsho Wangyel

As Sri Lanka navigates its IMF-led reforms and seeks to rebuild fiscal stability, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has warned that the country’s demographic slowdown — marked by falling birth rates and an ageing population — could emerge as a major long-term constraint on economic growth and labour productivity.

Releasing the preliminary findings of the 2024 Census of Population and Housing in Colombo, UNFPA Officer-in-Charge Phuntsho Wangyel said Sri Lanka’s population now stands at 21.76 million, reflecting an increase of just 1.4 million since 2012. The country’s annual growth rate has fallen to 0.5 percent, underscoring a demographic transition with profound fiscal and economic implications.

“The message is clear — fewer babies are being born. This slowdown, combined with low fertility and rapid ageing, signals a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s age structure, Wangyel said.

He warned that the demographic changes could affect the labour market, productivity and public finances, urging policymakers to plan ahead to ensure long-term economic resilience.

“When fertility rates decline, the focus of policy must shift from managing population numbers to investing in people, advancing gender equality and strengthening systems that can support an ageing population, Wangyel stressed.

Wangyel said the implications of the census data go beyond population statistics, directly influencing Sri Lanka’s growth trajectory. A shrinking working-age population, he explained, could lead to slower output growth, rising fiscal pressure on pensions and healthcare and increased dependency on a smaller tax base.

“The economic implications are clear. A smaller workforce means slower growth unless productivity rises. This is why investing in education, technology and gender equality is no longer optional — it’s essential, he said.

He added that the transition demands policy reorientation — from expanding the labour supply to improving workforce productivity, innovation and social safety nets.

“Population data is not just a set of statistics — it’s an economic tool. It helps governments, investors and the private sector anticipate changes in labour supply, consumer demand and public expenditure, Wangyel said.

Wangyel praised the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) for conducting Sri Lanka’s first-ever digital census, describing it as a “crucial stride” toward modernising data collection and strengthening national planning.

“This digital census is a landmark for Sri Lanka’s economic governance. With accurate, timely data, policymakers can better allocate resources, target subsidies and design programmes that reflect real needs, he said.

He stressed that responsible use of the newly released data will be key to shaping future development strategies and aligning them with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“We must ensure no one is left behind. Granular data — disaggregated by age, gender and location — must be used to make inequities visible and actionable, Wangyel said.

While the findings highlight clear risks, Wangyel said Sri Lanka can also turn the shift into a strategic advantage by building a “silver economy” — industries and services designed to meet the needs of an ageing population, such as healthcare, elderly care, wellness and technology-driven services.

“With the right investments and policies, Sri Lanka can turn its demographic transition into an opportunity for innovation and inclusive growth, he said.

By Ifham Nizam

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