Business
GREAT 2025–2030: Sri Lanka’s Green ambition meets a grid reality check
Sri Lanka’s Renewable Energy Project Development Plan, branded GREAT 2025–2030 (Green Energy Acceleration Targets), reads like a confident pivot toward a cleaner, cheaper power system. With more than 2,600 MW of new renewable capacity planned—dominated by solar and wind—and a strong push on storage and grid stabilisation, the strategy signals intent. Yet beneath the headline numbers lies a harder business truth: generation is racing ahead of the grid, and unless infrastructure and control catch up fast, value will leak from an otherwise compelling transition.
At the core of GREAT is scale. Solar leads with 1,571 MW across multiple zones, while wind contributes 1,004 MW, primarily from Mannar, Kilinochchi and the North-Western belt.
Smaller but steady additions are planned in mini-hydro (51 MW) and biomass (38 MW). On paper, the mix lowers marginal costs, cuts imports, and insulates the economy from fuel price shocks—outcomes financiers and policymakers both welcome.
But a senior retired electrical engineer, who spent decades inside Sri Lanka’s power system, cautions that capacity alone doesn’t create reliability—or returns.
“We are adding megawatts faster than we are adding visibility and control,” he said. “Rooftop solar has already exceeded 1,350 MW, much of it invisible to operators. From a grid perspective, that is unmanaged generation, and unmanaged generation is risk.”
The business implications are immediate. Transmission bottlenecks, particularly delays in 220 kV and 400 kV lines, are constraining renewable evacuation. Projects commissioned on time can still face curtailment, eroding project IRRs and shaking investor confidence.
At the same time, electricity demand has softened amid economic pressures, compressing the system’s ability to absorb intermittent power—especially on Sundays and holidays, when demand dips but solar output peaks.
“Low demand days are now the stress test,” the engineer noted. “Without storage and grid-forming assets, you’re forced to back down renewables or keep thermal units running for stability. Both options cost money.”
GREAT attempts to address this with 650 MW / 2,250 MWh of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and 600 MW of pumped storage at Maha Oya by 2034, alongside synchronous condensers to maintain inertia. These are not optional add-ons; they are value enablers. Storage smooths volatility, captures excess midday solar, and shifts energy to peak hours—turning stranded electrons into bankable revenue.
Yet timing matters. Storage, controls, and transmission must arrive before or with new generation. Otherwise, developers face curtailment risk, lenders price in uncertainty, and tariffs fail to fall as promised.
The plan’s institutional fixes are equally commercial. A Renewable Energy Control Desk (from 2026), Distribution Control Centers in high rooftop solar areas, smart meter mandates, and grid digitalisation are designed to restore operational visibility. Time-of-use tariffs, paired with daytime EV charging and industrial load-shifting, aim to reshape demand—turning a system problem into a market opportunity.
“Tariffs are signals,” the engineer said. “If you want power used at noon, price it right. If EVs and factories move load to the day, solar becomes an asset, not a headache.”
For investors, the message is nuanced but clear. Sri Lanka’s renewable pipeline is real and sizeable.
The policy direction favours clean energy, and the cost curve is attractive. However, project bankability will increasingly hinge on grid-readiness—access to storage, firm evacuation paths, and participation in smart, controllable networks.
For policymakers, GREAT’s success will be measured not by megawatts announced, but by megawatt-hours delivered reliably and profitably. Accelerating transmission approvals, fast-tracking BESS procurement, and enforcing smart metering for distributed generation are the difference between a virtuous transition and a congested one.
“The transition is inevitable,” the engineer concluded.
“The question is whether we do it cheaply and safely, or pay twice—once for generation, and again for the fixes we delayed.”
GREAT 2025–2030 sets Sri Lanka on the right path. The business case now depends on execution—where grids, markets, and management must move at the same speed as ambition, he added.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Low-quality coal shipment affects Lakvijaya coal power plant operations
Operations at Sri Lanka’s main coal-fired power facility, the Lakvijaya coal power plant, suffered a significant disruption soon after a new shipment of coal was introduced, raising concerns over generation stability and environmental emissions.
Energy analyst Dr. Vidura Ralapanawa said in a social media post that the plant began using coal from “Ship 11” on Wednesday, following confirmation from officials of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).
However, almost immediately after the new batch of coal was fed into the system, the plant’s generation capacity began to decline due to the poor quality of the fuel.
According to Dr. Ralapanawa, the plant’s output dropped by about 82 megawatts overall. Unit 1 recorded a drop of 45 MW, Unit 2 fell by 15 MW, and Unit 3 declined by 22 MW shortly after the coal was introduced.
The situation worsened later in the night when two coal mills in Unit 3 reportedly became clogged around 11 p.m., causing a rapid fall in generation capacity. Unit 3, which normally operates at a higher output level, was said to be running at around 170 MW following the malfunction.
Coal mills are a crucial component in coal-fired power generation. They grind raw coal into a fine powder before it is fed into the boiler for combustion. Each generating unit at the Norochcholai facility is equipped with five coal mills, and any obstruction in these systems can severely affect plant operations.
When mills become clogged, plant operators often have to rely on diesel-fired burner guns to stabilise the flame inside the boiler. While this helps maintain combustion, it significantly increases operating costs because of the high price of diesel.
The heavy use of diesel has another consequence. According to Dr. Ralapanawa’s post, when diesel firing increases, the plant’s Electro-Static Precipitators (ESPs) must be shut down. ESPs are designed to capture and remove particulate matter such as fly ash before emissions are released through the chimney.
With the ESPs switched off, large amounts of fly ash may be released into the atmosphere, potentially affecting surrounding communities.
Dr. Ralapanawa further noted that the coal shipment appears to have low calorific value, low volatile matter, and high ash content, all of which reduce combustion efficiency. In addition, the coal reportedly has a low grindability index, making it harder to pulverise and increasing the likelihood of mill blockages.
He added that while the immediate clogging of the mills may be cleared within a day, the underlying quality issues with the coal could make the problem persistent.
The development comes amid earlier assurances from officials of the Ceylon Electricity Board that the Norochcholai plant could be operated effectively even with lower-quality coal supplies.
The Norochcholai facility, with an installed capacity of 900 MW, is the largest power station in Sri Lanka and a critical component of the national grid. Any disruption to its operations can have wider implications for the country’s electricity supply, potentially forcing the system to rely on more expensive oil-based power generation.
Engineers are currently working to address the clogged mills and stabilise generation, but energy analysts warn that unless the fuel quality improves, similar operational issues could recur.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
CSE regains some positive terrain but challenges remain
CSE trading yesterday was positive overall on account of local economic growth prospects but concerns deriving from West Asian tensions lingered.
The market is still recovering from previous days’ uncertainties, market analysts said.
The All Share Price Index went up by 256 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 63.8 points. Turnover stood at Rs 5.68 billion with nine crossings.
Seven crossings were reported in HNB Finance where 130 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 1.1 billion; its shares traded at Rs 8.50, LMF four million shares crossed for Rs 348 million; its shares traded at Rs 87, Commercial Bank 661,000 shares crossed for Rs 142 million; its shares traded at Rs 215, Seylan Bank (Non-Voting) 750,000 shares crossed for Rs 49 million; its shares sold at Rs 75.50, ACL Cables 500,000 shares crossed for Rs 49 million; its shares traded at Rs 98, HNB 100,000 shares crossed for Rs 43.2 million; its shares sold at Rs 432 and Access Engineering 500,000 shares crossed for Rs 38.5 million and its shares fetched at Rs 77.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; HNB Finance Rs 331 million (34.8 million shares traded), Lanka Credit and Business Finance Rs 184 million (21.6 million shares traded), LOLC Holdings Rs 180 million (320,000 shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 167 million (774,000 shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 138 million (twelve million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 124 million (789,000 shares traded) and ACL Cables Rs 123 million (1.26 million shares traded). During the day 330 million share volumes changed hands in 36639 transactions.
It is said that the banking and financial sectors performed well. HNB Finance was active in the financial sector, while Commercial Bank and HNB were active in the banking counters.
Further, National Development Bank has received Colombo Stock Exchange approval in principle to list Rs 16 billion of 11.50, 11.04 and 11.85 percent debentures, it said in a CSE filing.
NDB will issue 120 million Tier 2, listed, rated, unsecured, subordinated, redeemable Basel III compliant GSS+ bonds with a non-viability conversion, at Rs 100 each.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 310.70/85 to the US dollar in the spot market, weaker from Rs 310.30/60 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.
By Hiran H Senewiratne
Business
Indian Ocean under fire: Parliament explodes over the sinking of ‘IRIS Dena’
A new crisis looms with a second Iranian vessel at the doorstep
Sri Lanka’s parliament became a secondary battleground yesterday as the sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena ignited a fierce debate over national sovereignty, regional maritime priciples, and the government’s perceived ‘strategic paralysis.’
While the Navy’s rescue of 32 sailors was initially painted in shades of heroism, Opposition MPs have now unfurled a narrative of missed warnings and geopolitical betrayal.
In a scathing address, Opposition firebrand Chamara Sampath Dissanayake challenged the circumstances of the vessel’s arrival in Sri Lankan waters. The IRIS Dena had been a guest of the Indian Navy during the MILAN-2026 exercises just days prior. Dissanayake alleged that at the conclusion of the fleet review, the vessel was effectively ‘put out’ of India, leaving the crew with no choice but to steer toward Sri Lanka.
“This was a deliberate attempt by the host to put a guest in harm’s way,” Dissanayake charged, stopping just short of naming India directly while making the implication undeniable. He argued that Sri Lanka had been ‘set up’ to deal with the fallout of a targeted strike that occurred only 11 nautical miles from Galle.
The debate took a darker turn when SJB MP Mujibur Rahman dropped a bombshell regarding the timing of the attack. Rahman alleged that the IRIS Dena had signalled for permission to enter Sri Lankan waters 11 hours before it was struck by U.S. torpedoes.
“Why did the authorities keep silent?” Rahman demanded. He blasted the government for failing to act on humanitarian grounds, suggesting that Colombo’s hesitation provided the necessary window for what U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth termed a ‘Quiet Death.’ Rahman’s critique painted a picture of a government ensnared in superpower machinations, unable to uphold the principles of the Indian Ocean as a ‘Zone of Peace.’
Responding to the barrage of questions, Cabinet Spokesman Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa confirmed a chilling new development: a second Iranian vessel is currently positioned in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off Colombo.
While Jayatissa assured the House that the President and the Security Council are ‘fully aware’ and making ‘necessary interventions’ to protect those on board, the lack of specific details fueled further anxiety. Political analysts suggest that the government’s failure to announce a clear, proactive neutral policy has left it in a state of ‘vacillation,’ unable to decide whether to grant refuge to the second ship or risk another tragedy on its doorstep.
The parliamentary clash was punctuated by the visit of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe to the Iranian Embassy yesterday to offer condolences for the passing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Wickremesinghe had warned on March 2 – just 48 hours before the sinking – that the current ‘leadership eviction’ methodology in the Middle East could destabilise the Indian Ocean.
As the death toll from the IRIS Dena stands at 87 with 60 still missing, the ‘can of worms’ opened in parliament reveals a nation at a crossroads. The government’s silence during the Dena’s final hours and its current ‘intervention’ with the second vessel will likely define Sri Lanka’s standing in a rapidly fragmenting global order.
As the House adjourned, one question remained hanging in the air: In the face of a superpower conflict, does Sri Lanka have the ‘backbone’ to be truly neutral, or is it merely a spectator to its own maritime destiny?
by Sanath Nanayakkare
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