Opinion
Govt. split: No solution in sight for forex shortage
This week a senior IMF official visited Sri Lanka to brief the government on the IMF’s assessment of the crisis-hit economy. The IMF Asia and Pacific Department Director Changyong Rhee held meetings with the Finance Minister, Basil Rajapaksa and President Gotabaya. However, Mr. Rhee has not met with the Governor of the Central Bank, Ajith Nivard Cabraal. Under normal circumstances, an agreement with the IMF is signed between the IMF and two local parties, one being the Minister of Finance and the second being the Governor of the Central Bank. Thus, the absence of a meeting between the IMF official and the Governor of the Central Bank indicates that his stance on not engaging with the IMF is firm. How can one expect easing of the current crisis, while the decision makers responsible for our economy have ideological differences.
The IMF official listed out six main points in his brief to the President; beginning with the first and biggest policy blunder of unnecessary tax cuts in 2019, which witnessed a significant reduction in government revenue. According to Dr. Roshan Perera, a former Director of the Central Bank, government revenue fell by at least Rs. 500 billion in the year 2020 as well as 2021, signaling a loss of over Rs. 1 trillion in total revenue in the last two years. Secondly, Mr. Rhee highlighted the fact that international markets are completely closed to us right now due to the loss of confidence in the government’s planning of the economy. Third point criticized the government’s complete mismanagement of the exchange rate and utilisation of foreign reserves, which consequently led to a lack of funds for debt repayments and substantial devaluation in the rupee.
The fourth point critiqued the massive budget deficits over the past two years. On numerous occasions, we have pointed out in parliament that the government was fudging the numbers. In fact, the budget deficit for the year 2020 was 14% and not 11% as reported in official stats.
The fifth point highlighted the international community’s loss of confidence in Sri Lanka, as well as the people’s loss of confidence in the current government.
A recent poll by Verite Research displayed that the people’s confidence in the government was as low as 10%! Moreover, international market confidence is a decisive factor in successful economies, however, Sri Lanka’s international sovereign bonds are down 50% in the Singapore bond market.
Lastly, the IMF official pointed out the inability of the government to control rising inflation. For example, Sri Lanka reported a 25% rate of food inflation last month although it may be as high as 40%.
Most importantly core inflation, which is an inflation measure that excludes transitory or temporary price volatility such as seen in food and energy, was as high as 11%. Core inflation is a reflection of the government’s macroeconomic policy making and should normally be below normal inflation rates of an average 4-6%. When will the government understand basic principles of economics such as rising inflation due to money printing? Since last Friday, the government has printed over Rs. 100 billion!
The government continues passing the ball now between the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank.
This is the first time in history that we are witnessing a Governor of the Central Bank blaming the Minister of Finance openly about the mishaps in the economy. The devaluation of the rupee has not ceased, as interest rates have not increased in parallel to the devaluation. Nonetheless, all citizens are left with no assurance of an end to their plight.
Eran, Kabir and I are currently drafting a economic blueprint in bringing Sri Lanka out of this crisis, with drastic reforms never-attempted before in consultations with leading international and local academics and professionals. Moreover, we hope to launch a programme to ease the burden on the bottom 20% of society that is going through unbearable hardships, as the bottom 20% represents only 5% of total income while the top 20% enjoys over 50% of total income. We hope to present a social market economy, in which we will guarantee social justice while increasing competition in the market.
Nevertheless, in line with our progressive thinking, we hope to consult all economic experts, business leaders, unions and all chambers, regardless of political affiliations, in gaining their vital ideas and suggestions for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery in the coming weeks ahead.
Harsha de Silva, MP
Opinion
Blueprint for economic empowerment in Sri Lanka’s gig economy
“Creating 300,000 Online Jobs:
By Dammike Kobbekaduwe,
FIPM (SL), Member-CIPM-SL, MBA(HRM)
Objectives of the Article
Assess
the viability and economic impact of creating 300,000 online jobs in Sri Lanka.
Present
a bankable business plan for investment support from financial institutions.
Outline
a detailed cost-benefit analysis, supported by viability ratios for funding eligibility.
Establish
a sustainable financial and operational model for building a skilled gig workforce.
Sri Lanka’s gig economy presents a compelling solution for youth employment, targeting 300,000 online jobs for young people, particularly those who completed GCE OL. With a goal of generating substantial monthly income streams, this project seeks to address the country’s economic challenges and stimulate growth through digital employment. While a monthly earning a realistic starting income of $300–$500 is achievable and scalable, infusing approximately $50 million monthly into the economy once the workforce reaches full capacity.
To ensure financial viability and attract investment, we conduct a comprehensive economic analysis. This document highlights key investment metrics, including viability ratios, projected cash flow, and a cost-benefit breakdown to support the proposal as a bankable doEconomic Analysis and Viability
This project’s financial feasibility and appeal for funding rely on assessing profitability and return potential. Calculations are based on the cost of infrastructure, worker setup costs, and recurring expenses.
1. Capital and Operational Costs
Capital Setup Per Worker
Laptop (16GB RAM):
LKR 300,000 (one-time purchase)
Data Plan:
LKR 8,000 per month
Electricity:
LKR 8,000 per month (solar option as a long-term cost-saving measure)
Annual Cost Per Worker
One-time Equipment Cost:
LKR 300,000
Recurring Monthly Costs:
LKR 192,000 (LKR 16,000 x 12)
Total Yearly Cost Per Worker
Year 1:
LKR 492,000
Year 2+ (Excluding Laptop):
LKR 192,000 per year
Total Initial Investment for 300,000 Workers
Laptops:
LKR 90 billion
Year 1 Recurring Costs:
LKR 57.6 billion
Initial Year Investment Requirement:
LKR 147.6 billion
2. Projected Revenue and Cash Injection
A monthly earning potential of $300–$500 per worker in Sri Lanka’s gig market (based on average entry-level online job earnings globally) provides realistic targets for cash generation.
Monthly Cash Injection at Full Capacity
Minimum Revenue Goal (300,000 workers at $300):
$90 million/month
Maximum Revenue Goal (300,000 workers at $500):
$150 million/month
Expected Economic Contribution:
$50 million/month as a sustainable average.
3. Viability Ratios and Business Metrics
To validate the project’s financial health, banks and investors can consider the following key metrics:
A. Return on Investment (ROI)
The ROI assesses the profitability relative to costs.
See FIG 1
For Year 1 (Initial setup + recurring costs):
Total Annual Revenue:
$90 million * 12 months * 300,000 = LKR 324 billion (at $300/month per worker) See FIG 2
Interpretation:
A 119.5% ROI suggests strong profitability, with returns significantly outpacing the initial investment within the first year, making it attractive for lenders and investors.
B. Break-even Point (BEP)
The BEP indicates when revenue will cover initial costs.
See FIG 3
For a $50 million monthly injection:
Interpretation: A break-even within three months reflects a rapid recovery period, underscoring the project’s viability. See FIG 4
C. Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
To ensure sufficient earnings to cover debt obligations, DSCR is critical for bank funding. See FIG 5
Assuming monthly operating income of LKR 3.24 billion and an estimated debt service of LKR 1.5 billion:
Interpretation:
With a DSCR above 2, the project is well-positioned for loan approval, demonstrating strong debt repayment capacity. See FIG 6
Implementation Plan for the National Gig Workforce
Phase 1: Training and Equipment Setup
Digital Literacy Programs:
Partner with local institutions to offer foundational training.
Laptop Financing:
Government-backed financing for laptops and solar installations for sustainable power solutions.
Phase 2: Skill Development and Placement
Skill Development Centers:
Partner with international e-learning platforms and host training boot camps.
Placement Programs:
Establish online job-matching platforms to connect workers with international clients.
Phase 3: Scaling and Economic Integration
Tax Incentives:
Offer tax breaks to local businesses hiring from the gig workforce.
Freelancer Support Network:
Create a national freelancer association for continued training and mentorship.
Resources Required For Workers:
Training:
Digital and language skills to enter global markets.
Equipment:
Laptops with financing options.
Connectivity:
Affordable data plans or subsidies.
For Stakeholders:
Government Initiatives:
Funding for training and incentives.
Private-Sector Partnerships: Skill development programs and job portals.
Financial Institutions: Loan products tailored for workers’ needs.
Conclusion
This plan offers a scalable solution to Sri Lanka’s unemployment crisis, particularly for young people with limited formal education. By creating 300,000 online jobs and targeting a monthly cash inflow of $50 million, the initiative supports economic resilience while empowering youth with valuable skills. A financial model based on solid viability ratios makes this project attractive to lenders, ensuring a rapid return on investment and sustainable growth.
References
International Labour Organization. (2023). The Gig Economy: Opportunities and Challenges for Youth Employment in Developing Economies. Available at: https://www.ilo.org/
Upwork. (2023). Freelancer Earnings and Trends Report. Available at: https://www.upwork.com/research
World Bank. (2022). Digital Jobs and Economic Growth:
A Guide for Developing Nations. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.
Fiverr. (2023). Freelancer Earnings and Skill Development:
A Global Perspective. Available at: https://www.fiverr.com/research
Coursera. (2023). Skill Trends in the Digital Economy:
A Report on Online Education in Emerging Markets. Available at: https://www.coursera.com/research
Sri Lanka Department of Census and Statistics. (2023). Youth Unemployment and Educational Attainment: Annual Report.
Opinion
Hospitals and corruption
On December 2, in The Island Cassandra CRY saw the state of hospitals and corruption as separate issues, but I believe they are deeply interconnected. The dismal condition of hospitals is a direct consequence of systemic corruption. Over the past several decades, trade unions, driven by self-interest, have focused solely on advocating for their members’ rights, often at the expense of their responsibilities. This trend has affected not only hospitals but also other government and some private sector institutions.
Currently, the country is led by a political party that has heavily relied on its trade unions for promotion and political gain. Given this close relationship, restoring order should be relatively straightforward. A simple directive from the relevant ministers to their allied union leaders could be enough to initiate meaningful reforms.
S K Muthukumara
Opinion
Building Inclusive Policies for a Modern and Collaborative Public Sector in Sri Lanka
by Upali Athukorala
Former Senior Assistant Secretary
(Foreign Relations) Ministry of Labour
The Cabinet of Ministers, at its meeting on 28th October 2024, granted its concurrence to implement the project titled “Social Dialogue for Peace and Crisis Prevention in Sri Lanka,” which is technically supported by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and financially backed by the Peace Building Fund of the UN Secretary-General. This initiative, implemented across the public, private, and informal sectors, is a collaborative effort involving the ILO, UNFPA, and UNESCO. The project builds upon the public sector initiative to introduce a Dispute Prevention and Resolution Mechanism in the Public Service, initially approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on 23rd November 2023 (Cabinet Paper No. 23/2138/605/068). The current Cabinet decision reinforces this earlier approval, highlighting the government’s commitment to fostering peace and social cohesion through inclusive dialogue and effective dispute-resolution mechanisms. This Article focuses only on the public sector initiative
The Public Service
The 2016 Public Sector Census reported Sri Lanka’s public sector workforce at approximately 1.4 million, which has grown to around 1.6 million according to the 2023 Budget speech. This workforce is critical in maintaining socio-economic stability and ensuring the delivery of essential goods and services to citizens. However, its efficiency is constrained by several challenges. Outdated and inefficient systems reduce productivity, while the limited adoption of modern technologies hinders the timely and quality delivery of services. Additionally, significant skill gaps and inadequate employee training limit their ability to meet the evolving demands of the public sector. Adversarial employee-management relations further complicate the situation, with employees feeling excluded from key decisions on pay and working conditions. This exclusion has resulted in frequent strikes and work stoppages. Such disruptions, coupled with perceived inequities and inconsistencies in employment practices, undermine morale, trust, and the overall functionality of the public service. Collectively, these issues impair the sector’s ability to deliver public goods and services effectively, negatively affecting citizens’ lives and the country’s development. Moreover, as Sri Lanka embraces open economic policies, the private sector is positioned as the engine of growth, fostering innovation, investment, and employment. A robust and efficient public service is essential to implement these policies effectively and create an environment that enables the private sector to thrive.
How to Address the Issues: A Three-Pronged Approach
Workplace Cooperation Through Social Dialogue
Sri Lanka’s current initiative to transform adversarial management relations hinges on implementing a multi-tiered social dialogue system. The country is making significant strides toward promoting workplace cooperation by providing platforms for dialogue at the workplace, sectoral, and national levels. These platforms enable public sector employees and management to engage in less aggressive, more collaborative processes, ultimately improving service delivery.
At each level, whether through workplace forums, sectoral dialogues, or national forums, the objective remains the same: to ensure that public service delivery is not disrupted by disputes while also addressing the concerns of public sector employees in a peaceful, democratic manner. Adopting these practices aligns with international standards, particularly those set by the International Labour Organization (ILO), and positions Sri Lanka as a country that respects and upholds labour rights while ensuring effective governance.
A comprehensive social dialogue framework is being proposed to address this gap, covering the entire field—from individual workplaces to ministries and national-level forums. These forums will allow employees, directly and through their representatives, to engage with their public service employer through information exchange, consultation, and negotiation processes, aiming to improve productivity and regulate changes to pay, as well as terms and conditions of employment.
Workplace forums promote open dialogue and collaboration between management and employees. They provide a structured environment where workplace issues can be discussed and concerns addressed, fostering mutual understanding. Such dialogue strengthens the working environment and contributes to the country’s social and economic development by encouraging transparency and cooperative problem-solving.
Training initiatives such as the Training of Trainers (ToT) programme are crucial at the workplace level. These programmes equip senior officials with the skills to lead dialogues and mediate disputes. By developing trainers with expertise in conflict resolution, the public sector can prevent conflicts from escalating into strikes or work stoppages. These workshops empower management and employees to engage in constructive conversations, focusing on mutual understanding and problem-solving.
At the sectoral level, forums are being introduced in historically contentious areas such as health, education, and transport. These forums consist of representatives from management and employees, often from trade unions, and are designed to address sector-specific issues. By institutionalising regular communication in these key sectors, the government aims to reduce the risk of adversarial relationships leading to disruptions in essential services.
At the national level, Sri Lanka is promoting national forums that bring together representatives from different public sector bodies, trade unions, and stakeholders. These national-level dialogues address systemic issues affecting employee-management relations across the public service and discuss implementing national policies to enhance workplace cooperation and service delivery.
The dialogue framework connects the National Public Service Dialogue Forum (NPSDF) with the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service Commission, ensuring that the decisions made by the forum are aligned with government policies and implemented effectively (See Figure 1). These two institutions play a critical role in translating the outcomes of sectoral councils and workplace forums into actionable strategies, particularly in resource allocation and regulatory compliance. Additionally, the framework establishes links between the dialogue forums and arbitration and mediation mechanisms. These mechanisms are instrumental in addressing and resolving conflicts during discussions, ensuring the process remains collaborative and solutions-oriented. This integration supports a robust conflict resolution system, enhancing stakeholder trust and cooperation.
Introducing Dispute Settlement Machinery
The proposed dispute prevention and settlement mechanism aims to bring critical structural changes to Sri Lanka’s public service. This includes introducing alternative dispute settlement mechanisms such as mediation and arbitration services and revising the roles of existing institutions like the Public Service Commission and Administrative Appeals Tribunal. Revising regulations such as the Establishment Code and enforcing Administrative Appeals Tribunal Orders at the Magistrate Court is also essential. These changes address the gaps in the current dispute prevention and settlement framework, leading to a more harmonious workplace.
Promoting Modern Human Resources Management Methods in the Public Service
The current approach to human resources in the Sri Lankan public service primarily focuses on personnel administration rather than on modern human resource management that aligns with the service’s larger mission and goals. To address this, the ILO study proposes implementing modern human resources development methods across the public service. This includes considerable investment in human resources functions, a comprehensive training component, and a robust monitoring mechanism.
In addition, it is recommended that the Ministry of Public Administration establish a public service-wide database to support these reforms facilitated by the Department of Census and Statistics. This database would help monitor progress, manage human resources effectively, and ensure the reforms are implemented smoothly.
Pilot Activities
The Railway Department has implemented its pilot programme for nearly two years, marking a significant advancement in fostering workplace dialogue within Sri Lanka’s public sector. Over this period, nine workplace forums have been successfully established, providing a platform for employees and management to address workplace challenges and improve operational efficiency collaboratively. Building on this foundation, actions are now underway to set up a sectoral forum for the entire Transport sector, which will unify the efforts of these forums, promote policy coherence, and address broader sector-wide issues. Inspired by the success of the Railway Department’s initiative, similar efforts are being made to establish workplace forums in the Ministry of Public Administration, Home Affairs, and Provincial Councils, as well as the Ministry of Education, further expanding the scope and impact of social dialogue in enhancing public sector governance.
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