by Sanath Nanayakkare

Doomsayers had predicted that the country’s debt burden would be unmanageable, but that was not the case when one took the alternative economic indicators into account, Central Bank Governor Prof. W.D Lakshman said yesterday at the inauguration session of Sri Lanka Economic Summit 2020, held on a virtual platform.

Prof. Lakshman said that he particularly felt obliged to touch upon the current controversies surrounding Sri Lanka’s fiscal deficits and the current level of its debt.

“There are arguments that Sri Lanka’s fiscal deficits have been excessive and the debt levels are at unmanageable levels, but let me attempt to expand on this aspect in terms of alternative thinking in economic theory,” he said.

“Several countries including Japan, Singapore, and the United States have debt levels far exceeding their GDP. Firstly, this shows that even such high levels of debt could be sustainable when domestic debt is the predominant component in the debt portfolio. It can be shown through alternative indicators that even foreign debt is more manageable than doomsayers indicate.

“The ratio of government’s foreign non-concessional debt to GDP is around 23%, and the remainder is either domestic debt that can be rolled over or dealt with upon long term concessional financing. The annual foreign debt service payments as a percentage of export earnings and remittances stand at around 12% in ‘business as usual’ years such as 2018.

“With the adoption of a fiscal consolidation path from 2021 and the increased emphasis on domestic debt when it comes to financing budget deficits, the aforementioned indicators will improve further. The fears surrounding debt sustainability, therefore, indeed appear unfounded.”

Referring to widespread concerns on import restrictions, foreign trade and foreign economic relations the Governor said: “Import restrictions on non-essential goods working along with low oil prices have provided the country with a saving of US$ 4 billion in import expenditure in 2020. This saving is almost equivalent to the foreign currency debt service payments we settled during the year.

“Import restrictions have also provided an opportunity for our local enterprises to gather steam within the domestic market and to evaluate possibilities of expansion abroad – a mechanism used in all successful growth stories of the world. Those who argue for so-called ‘debt restructuring or debt reprofiling’ must realise that this means reforms of austerity. In my view, Sri Lanka is already undergoing some austerity, but on our terms. This is evident when the ongoing programme of import compression is considered.

“Sri Lanka is introducing ground-breaking reforms to improve its domestic production economy, enhance exports and reduce foreign debt dependence. It is commendable that Sri Lanka is following this approach without being prompted by any foreign agency, while continuing to honour all its financial obligations.”