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Flood protection of Colombo Metropolitan Region-An alternative scheme

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By Dr Janaka Ratnasiri

I thank Eng. Anton Nanayakkara (AN)’s write-up in The Island of 28.07.2020, responding to my article on Flood Protection of Colombo Metropolitan Region which appeared in The Island of 21.07.2020. The main purpose of my article was to highlight the fact that the government after getting Japanese Consultants to formulate a Master Plan for flood protection of Colombo Metro Region at great cost, what is being implemented as a priority project is only a clean-up of the Weras Ganga basin, making a mockery of the word Master Plan. This area is totally outside the Greater Colombo area with no impact on its flooding. AN has failed to comment on this issue.

METRO COLOMBO URBAN DEVELOPMENT

PROJECT

With the failure of the Master Plan to address the flood situation within the city and its suburbs, Sri Lanka Land Development Corporation (SLLDC) has taken the initiative to develop a separate project titled Metro Colombo Urban Development Project (MCUDP) to address this issue. This project expected to be executed during 2012 – 2020 is estimated to cost USD 104 Million (SLLDC Website). It will address flood mitigation in areas covered by the Colombo Municipal Council, Sri Jayewardenapura, Battaramulla, Rajagiriya, Madiwela and Dehiwala. Activities described under “Improvements to existing drainage systems” in my previous article of July 21st were in fact carried out by SLLDC under this project.

COMMENTS ON ENG. NANAYAKKARA’S

RESPONSES

In his response, AN has made certain remarks on some statements appearing in my article and questions their validity. What I have said are totally based on material extracted from other sources including the JICA reports and the website of the SLLDC and not my own suggestions. It appears that AN seems to be unaware of the latest situation in this regard, and hence they need clarification. My comments are given against each of AN’s statements which are given below using material extracted from SLLDC website – Special Projects pages.

1. “The Madiwela East Diversion (MED), remaining dry most of the time, as mentioned, may be due to its wrong location, too far upstream of the Kelani Ganga about 10 miles above the historic Nagalagam Street outfall”.

COMMENT: MED was established by constructing a new canal from the Thalangama Tank up to the origin of the existing natural canal flowing through Malabe paddy fields parallel to Chandrika Kumarathunga Mawatha. It has its natural outfall at Ambatale. The topography of the area does not permit shifting of this outfall further downstream.

2. “Even during floods of the Kelani Ganga, this outfall No 1 (See plan) has to be closed, long before Nagalagam Street outfall closing at +5.00 ft MSL, the accepted minor flood level for Colombo, negating the very purpose for which this canal was built”.

COMMENT: The SLLDC is currently building a pumping station at Ambatale across the MED canal to pump water to the river when its water level rises during heavy rainfall, at a cost of USD 5.85 Million and LKR 1,181 Million (SLLRDC website).

3. “The learned doctor has not noticed the extent to which the Thalangama Tank had silted up, reducing the capacity to retain flood water (about 50 ac.ft) entering the Parliament lake”.

COMMENT: In a project carried out by the SLLDC during 2016 – 2018, the tank was dredged to increase its water holding capacity and remove unnecessary growth on the tank bund, at a cost of LKR 107 million. In any case, I wonder how even a professional hydrologist could notice the extent of silting of the tank just by looking at it.

4. “This gate was constructed at ID’s flood control premises to pump water from the Kelani Ganga to the Beira Lake, for the purpose of cleaning the lake. The project ceased soon after the flood. Strangely, no inquiry was made. It was all swept under the carpet”.

COMMENT: According the SLLDC website, it has built three gates across Kolonnawa Canal, Heen Ela and St. Sebastian canal at the crossing of New Kelani Bridge Road to isolate the canal system enabling water to be pumped back into the canal system from the river by operating the pumps installed at St. Sebastian outfall in the reverse direction. This work to be carried out during 2018 – 2020 is estimated to cost of USD 5.85 million and LKR 1181 million. So, it is not a case of sweeping under the carpet.

5. “Dr. R’s reference to the Beira Lake, too, needs some clarifications. The Beira Lake is not a natural lake. It is an artificial lake also kept at an artificial level, of 6.00 ft above mean sea level, by the Beira Spillway”.

COMMENT: A pumping station is being built across St. Sebastian Canal at Maradana for pumping water from the canal to Beira Lake during periods of high rainfall in Colombo. This work to be carried out during 2019 -2020 is estimated to cost of USD 5.93 million and LKR 165 million. (See also the last paragraph).

6. “Ignoring many other references, contained in Dr R’s article, let me now say a few words about narrowing of bridges, mentioned in it. This is not a matter of life and death, as made out to be. Any hydrologist will agree that within the narrowed section, the velocity will increase to make up for the constriction”.

COMMENT: Widening of the canals and removing bottleneck were not proposals that I made, but what are actually executed by SLLDC as described in its website. Kolonnawa Canal Diversion Stage III says “the canal has become very narrow at certain sections due to encroachment. Some resettlement and land acquisitions are undertaken to remove bottlenecks”. This work to be carried out during 2018-2020 will cost of LKR 1,000 million. Diversion Stage IV also refers to removing two bottlenecks near the outfall.

7. “If, as proposed, the southern diversion takes place, such a canal would become a “trans-basin diversion” let alone the new outfall getting pushed about 20 miles, down south, to Panadura; not to mention reversing the natural flow direction, within the Madiwela catchment, and aggravating the already existing problems, within Bolgoda”.

COMMENT: The proposed diversion is not the first trans-basin diversion in Sri Lanka. Under the Mahaweli Scheme, there are trans-basin diversions. There are even such diversions among ancient works including diversion of Kala Oya to Malwathu Oya basin and Amban Ganga to Yan Oys basin. More recently, Kalu Ganga (Matale) was diverted to Amban Ganga basin under Moragahakanda Project, Uma Oya is being diverted to Kirindi Oya basin. It is also proposed to divert Gin Ganga to Nilwala basin. If Madiwela South diversion is the only practical option available to protect Sri Jayewardenapura area from flooding, it should be pursued after addressing whatever environmental issues that it may cause.

8. “The proposals (which) I have been making for more than 30 years, do not go against nature, no damage to environment by digging new canals, no underground tunnels of large diameter, no widening of bridges, and no pumping”.

COMMENT: If AN’s proposal with no digging of new canals, no tunneling or no widening of canals had merit, why wasn’t it accepted by authorities for implementation all these 30 years?

OPTION WITH NO DIGGING, TUNNELING AND PUMPING

As mentioned in my previous article, the Diyawannawa Lake has two draining outlets, one via Kolonnawa Canal and the other via Wellawatta Canal. The Kolonnawa Canal branches into three canals with outfalls to the Kelani River at Grandpass, Kotuwila and Ambatale which need pumping during heavy rainfall days. Hence, only the Wellawatta Canal is available for draining direct into the sea without resorting to digging new canals, or building tunnels or installing pumping stations. Under the MCUDP project, the stretch of Wellawatta Canal beyond the Galle Road was dredged, widened and the outfall improved at a cost of LKR 111.6 Million. It is to be seen whether this outlet together with the improved outfalls to Kelani River could handle the draining of Diyawannawa Lake during an extreme rainfall event.

ALTERNATIVE PROPOSAL TO DRAIN FLOOD WATER

AN has expressed his reservations about using the Beira Lake as an outfall for flood water as the level of the spillway cannot be adjusted. Though a sum of LKR 1,350 million is spent on building a pumping station at Maradana to divert flood water coming along the Dematagoda Canal into the Beira Lake and then to the sea, there is a doubt as to whether this diversion will work. If it works, it will take flood water from Kotte diverted to St. Sebastian Canal first to the Floating Market and then to the Beira Lake before the water enters the spillway near Galle Face. This will invariably raise the water level of Beira Lake which is presently maintained at 1.8 m above mean sea level to prevent buildings constructed on wooden piles along the lake from collapsing. However, according to an environment screening study on a project for rehabilitation of the Beira Lake carried out by Moratuwa University in 2011, any changes to the water level of the Beira lake can have an adverse effect on the stability of these foundations.

There is however, another alternative option available to improve the draining of Kotte flood water flowing along Dematagoda Canal into the river without posing any of these problems. That is by diverting water flowing in Dematagoda Canal direct into Kiththamphuwa Ela (KE) before it joins with St. Sebastian Canal, by constructing a new canal branching off from the Dematagoda Canal just before it crosses the railway line. This canal could run parallel to the railway line and join with the KE where it makes a U-turn near Welewatta Road. This link canal is only about 0.5 km long and this area comes mostly under railway reservation. The stretch of KE which runs parallel to the railway line up to the river outfall is being widened and dredged under the Kolonnawa Canal Diversion Stage IV at a cost of LKR 1,432 Million. Hence, construction of this new link canal could be undertaken as a part of this project.

The distance to the existing river outfall along St. Sebastian Canal from this branching point is 3.0 km while the distance to the Beira Lake outfall via St. Sebastian Canal in the opposite direction 5.2 km, whereas the distance to the river outfall along the proposed link canal and KE is only 1.7 km. Further, the present St. Sebastian Canal route has six road crossings and several bends while the route via Beira Lake has eight road crossings. Also, the stretch of St. Sebastian Canal behind the Technical College passes through a narrow passage cut through a hill with no room for widening. On the other hand, the proposed route via the link canal and KE is short and straight with only one road crossing at Orugodawatta and is a better option to drain the Kotte flood water into Kelani River, than the proposed scheme via Beira Lake.

CONCLUSION

The SLLDC has already executed several projects worth LKR 1,165 Million with World Bank funding to improve the drainage in several canals in the city and its suburbs. Several more projects estimated to cost over LKR 4,500 Million and USD 44 Million are on-going. This includes a project to take flood water from Kotte all the way to Beira Lake and then to spillway at Galle Face for discharging into the sea by reversing the flow in St. Sebastian Canal. However, this does not appear sensible even to a layman like myself. It is more sensible to drop this proposal and instead develop the link canal to take flood water flowing in Dematagoda Canal direct to KE stretch running parallel to the railway line and thereafter to the Kelani river. The pumping equipment intended for diverting flood water via Beira Lake could be installed at the outfall of KE near Kalu Palama, enabling it to remove the flood water during heavy rainfall.

 



Features

Whither the rules-based order?

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by Andrew Sheng
for Asia News Network

Every day, we are told we must defend the rules-based order. But whose order? What rules? Why should we defend an order if we did not have a say in shaping?

All this is in the realm of politics and geo-politics. The biggest thinker who shaped the current neoliberal order was Austrian philosopher Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), whose ideas of classical liberalism of freedom, democracy and self-order of markets dominated global relations. Neoliberalism was put into practice in the 1980s, when US President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher pushed through the free market philosophy that swept away Keynesian state intervention of the 1950-1970s.

The deeper thinker on the whole question of constitutional law, politics and international order was German jurist Carl Schmitt (1888-1985), whose influence on conservative political circles in almost all the Big Powers has been growing. I only became aware of Schmitt’s work when Noema magazine wrote an editorial on Schmitt’s Nomos of the Earth (1950). Schmitt is controversial, because he essentially wrote the legal basis for Nazism in the 1920s, which accounts for his ostracization (in today’s language “cancelled”) from academic circles for decades.

Schmitt was a brutally realist thinker who explored the legal foundations of European political theory. Schmitt argues that no order can function without a sovereign authority. A state is legally constituted when the politics distinguishes between friend and enemy and when the citizens are willing to fight and die for its identity. The state alone is given the power of violence (and enforcement) by the citizens to enforce the law.

Schmitt is considered an authoritarian supporter, because he saw sovereign power resting ultimately in the Executive (rather than the Legislature or Judiciary) because the sovereign (i.e. the President) decides on the exceptional situation, where he/she must suspend the law because of war or assume emergency powers in order to restore order. Decisions by the Executive are either bound by law or bounded by his or her moral bearings.

The world is today watching on TV whether former President Trump is morally culpable for causing the January 6, 2021 riots, or legally culpable. The Ukraine war is being supported by NATO on a matter of moral principle for a non-member, but if the war escalates to nuclear global destruction that kills all, how do we trade off the individual rights with the collective right of everyone else to survive?

Schmitt dissected the European constitutional laws and international order, dividing them into three phases: pre-1500, 1648 to 1919 (World War I) and thereafter. Before the discovery of America, European powers fought each other under a religious cloak, since the Pope decided on disputes of rights on moral grounds. Indeed, it was the Papal Bulls of 1455 and 1493 that authorized the Portuguese and Spaniards to conquer all lands and seize and enslave Saracens and non-Christians in the Americas, Africa and Asia. The religious rationales comprised the Domination Code whereby Christians can rule over non-Christians and possess their property, as well as the Discovery Code, whereby lands owned by non-believers are treated as terra nullius (empty land), meaning non-Christian indigenous peoples do not have rights.

But when the Dutch and English started fighting with the Portuguese and Spaniards over overseas territories, what was the legal justification? Dutch jurist Grotius (1583-1645) provided the secular rationalisation that discovery alone is not enough, but since there was freedom in the seas, occupation by a sovereign state confirms rights seized through war. Schmitt argued that Jus Publicum Europaeum (European Public Law) emerged after the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia to allow sovereign countries to have the right to go to war based on their own judgement of justice and necessity without interference in each other’s domestic affairs. This changed after the end of the First World War, when the 1919 Treaty of Versailles treated the losing side as criminals, with their rights cancelled or confiscated.

Whilst the Europeans were busily fighting each other, the United States rose in global power and imposed her 1823 Monroe Doctrine that asserted that she has her own sphere of influence, with the right to intervene in Central and South American states. That sphere of influence would spatially cover cultural, economic, military, political and today technology exclusivity beyond legal sovereign borders.

Schmitt was prescient in seeing that where war is fought on the basis of “good versus evil”, in which all rights of the other side are “cancelled” (like the foreign exchange assets of Afghanistan and Russia are frozen or seized), the situation may be an unstable equilibrium. The unstable European security architecture was settled decisively by the United States in two World Wars because of her overwhelming military, economic and industrial power. But in today’s multipolar situation, who decides on the rules of the international order? If both sides accuse the other side as evil and illegitimate, who decides other than the use of arms?

To cut a complex story short, the NATO military alliance, comprising nearly one billion people and 47.3 percent of world GDP (2020), assumes its status quo role as the final arbiter of the “rules-based order”. The problem is that BRICS countries, plus Indonesia have 3.5 billion population with one quarter of world GDP in market terms (25.6%). However, on GDP PPP terms, they are near parity with NATO and therefore may have their own views on the international order. What if the larger non-Western countries want their own version of the Monroe Doctrine?

The moral principle that all of us should live peacefully on one planet should override sovereign nations fighting over power and ego from turf to space, when humanity could be burned by climate warming or nuclear war. For Nomos (or order) of the Planet, rather than the Earth, we should all rationally cooperate. If we truly believe in democracy, can the eight billion people in the world vote on the rules-based order, or do we still leave it to G-7?

No order is stable without true legitimacy. How to achieve that order remains an open question.

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Scarcity, prices, hoarding and queuing

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By Usvatte-aratchi

We live in a scarcity economy and will do so well into 2024, past the next Presidential elections if it comes then; it may not. (The new minister may open bets.) All economies are scarcity economies; otherwise, there would be no prices. We also live in plentiful economies; look at the streets of Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore, Paris or San Francisco during day or night. Scarcity is a relative term, as most terms are. A scarcity economy is one where prices rise relentlessly, where cigarettes are more expensive in the evening than they were the same morning. Scarcity economies will have two or more sets of prices: one official, others in markets in varying shades of grey until black. Scarcity economies are where everyone (producers, traders, households) hoards commodities, hoards everything that can be hoarded, at reasonable cost. Scarcity economy is one where productivity is lower than it was earlier, where both labour and capital idle. Scarcity itself may push down productivity. Observe thousands of people standing in queues to buy all kinds of things whilst producing nothing. That is labour idling. Others hang on to dear life in crowded trains arriving in office late to leave early, to get to ill lit homes where to cook each evening they repeat what their ancestors did millions of years ago to light a fire. Money is one commodity that can be hoarded at little cost, if there was no inflation. The million rupees you had in your savings account in 2019 is now worth a mere 500,000, because prices have risen. That is how a government taxes you outside the law: debase the currency. In an inflation afflicted economy, hoarding money is a fool’s game.

The smart game to play is to borrow to the limit, a kind of dishoarding (- negative hoarding) money. You borrow ten million now and five years later you pay 500 million because the value of money has fallen. US dollars are scarce in this economy. It is hoarded where it can wait until its price in Sri Lanka rises. Some politicians who seem to have been schooled in corruption to perfection have them stored elsewhere, as we have learnt from revelations in the international press. Electricity is not hoarded in large quantities because it is expensive to hoard. Petrol is not hoarded very much in households because it evaporates fast and is highly flammable. That does not prevent vehicle owners from keeping their tanks full in contrast to the earlier practice when they had kept tanks half empty (full). Consequently, drivers now hoard twice as much fuel in their tanks as earlier. Until drivers feel relaxed as to when they get the next fill, there will be queues. That should also answer the conundrum of the minister for energy who daily sent out more bowser loads out than earlier, but queues did not shorten.

As an aside, it is necessary to note that the scarcity economy, which has been brought about by stupid policies 2019-2022, and massive thieving from 2005 is partly a consequence of the fall in total output (GDP) in the economy. Workers in queues do not produce. The capital they normally use in production (e.g. motor cars, machines that they would otherwise would have worked at) lie idle. Both capital and labour idle and deny their usual contribution to GDP. Agriculture, industries, wholesale and retail trade, public administration, manufacturing and construction all of which have been adversely affected in various ways contribute more than 75% of total GDP. Maha (winter crop) 2021-22, Yala (spring crop) 2022 and Maha 2022-23 and fishing are all likely to have yielded (and yield) poor harvests. Manufacturing including construction are victims of severe shortages in energy and imported inputs. Wholesale and retail trade which depend directly on imports of commodities have been hit by the sharp drop in imports. Tourism, which is more significant in providing employment and foreign exchange, collapsed dreadfully since late 2019 and has not recovered yet. About 16 percent of our labour force work in the public sector. They have failed to contribute to GDP because they did not engage in productive work due to variegated reasons. Teachers were on strike for two months in 2021. In 2022, so far government employees have worked off and on. Wages of government employees are counted as contributions to GDP, by those that make GDP estimates. However, here is an instance where labour was paid but there was no output equal to the value of those wages. Such payments are rightly counted as transfers and do not count to GDP. For these reasons estimates of GDP for 2021 must be well below the 2020 level. The 3.6 growth in official estimates is unlikely. The likely drop in 2022 will be roughly of the same magnitude as in 2021. These declines are not dissonant with misery one sees in towns and the countryside: empty supermarket shelves, scant supplies of produce in country fares, scarce fish supplies, buses idling in parks and roads empty of traffic. There have been warnings from our paediatricians as well as from international organisations of wasting and probable higher rates of child mortality. It is this sort of sharp fall in wellbeing that engenders the desperation driving young and ambitious people to obtain passports to seek a living overseas. You can see those from mezzo-America amassed on the southern border of US. Will our young men and women end up beyond the wall of China?

Of this lowered supply of goods and services, this society is expected to pay a massive accumulated foreign debt. (Remember the reparation payments in the Versailles Treaty). In real terms it will mean that we forego a part of our lower incomes. Do not miss this reality behind veils of jargon woven by financial analysts. It is not something that we have a choice about. That is where international help may kick in. Gotabaya Rajapaksa government after much senseless dilly dallying has started negotiations with the IMF. There is nobody compelling our government to seek support from IMF. They are free go elsewhere as some who recently were in their government still urge. Examine alternatives and hit upon an arrangement not because it permits the family grows richer but because it will make life for the average person a little less unbearable.

If prices are expected to rise people will seek resources to hoard: money to buy commodities, space and facilities to hoard, security services to protect the property and much more. Rice producers cannot hoard their product because animals large as elephants and small as rodents eat them up. Because of the unequal distribution of resources to hoard, the poor cannot hoard. In a scarcity economy, the poor cannot hoard and famines usually victimise the poor, first and most. If prices are expected to fall, stocks are dishoarded to the market and prices fall faster and deeper. In either direction, the rate at which prices change and the height/depth of the rise/fall depends on the speed at which expectations of change in prices take place. A largescale rice miller claims he can control the price of rice at a level that the government cannot. His success/failure will tell us the extent of his monopoly power.

When commodities are scarce, in the absence of a sensible system of coupons to regulate the distribution, consumers will form queues. A queue is rarely a straight here, nor a dog’s tail (queue, in French, is a dog’s tail which most often crooked). Assembled consumers stagnate, make puddles and sometimes spread out like the Ganges, with Meghna, disgorges itself to the Bay of Bengal. They sometimes swirl and make whirlpools and then there is trouble, occasionally serious. There is order in a queue that people make automatically. To break that order is somehow iniquitous in the human mind. That is why breaking the order in a queue is enraging. For a queue to be disobeyed by anyone is infuriating, and for a politician to do so now in this country is dangerously injurious to his physical wellbeing.

The first cause of rising prices, hoarding and queues is the scarcity of goods and services in relation to the income and savings in the hands of the people.

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Terror figuring increasingly in Russian invasion of Ukraine

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In yet another mind-numbing manifestation of the sheer savagery marking the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a shopping mall in Ukraine’s eastern city of Kremenchuk was razed to the ground recently in a Russian missile strike. Reportedly more than a hundred civilian lives were lost in the chilling attack.

If the unconscionable killing of civilians is a definition of terrorism, then the above attack is unalloyed terrorism and should be forthrightly condemned by all sections that consider themselves civilized. Will these sections condemn this most recent instance of blood-curdling barbarism by the Putin regime in the Ukrainian theatre and thereby provide proof that the collective moral conscience of the world continues to tick? Could progressive opinion be reassured on this score without further delay or prevarication?

These issues need to be addressed with the utmost urgency by the world community. May be, the UN General Assembly could meet in emergency session for the purpose and speak out loud and clear in one voice against such wanton brutality by the Putin regime which seems to be spilling the blood of Ukrainian civilians as a matter of habit. The majority of UNGA members did well to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine close on the heels of it occurring a few months back but the Putin regime seems to be continuing the civilian bloodletting in Ukraine with a degree of impunity that signals to the international community that the latter could no longer remain passive in the face of the aggravating tragedy in Ukraine.

The deafening silence, on this question, on the part of those sections the world over that very rightly condemn terror, from whichever quarter it may emanate, is itself most intriguing. There cannot be double standards on this problem. If the claiming of the lives of civilians by militant organizations fighting governments is terror, so are the Putin regime’s targeted actions in Ukraine which result in the wanton spilling of civilian blood. The international community needs to break free of its inner paralysis.

While most Western democracies are bound to decry the Russian-inspired atrocities in Ukraine, more or less unambiguously, the same does not go for the remaining democracies of the South. Increasing economic pressures, stemming from high energy and oil prices in particular, are likely to render them tongue-tied.

Such is the case with Sri Lanka, today reduced to absolute beggary. These states could be expected ‘to look the other way’, lest they be penalized on the economic front by Russia. One wonders what those quarters in Sri Lanka that have been projecting themselves as ‘progressives’ over the years have to say to the increasing atrocities against civilians in Ukraine. Aren’t these excesses instances of state terror that call for condemnation?

However, ignoring the Putin regime’s terror acts is tantamount to condoning them. Among other things, the failure on the part of the world community to condemn the Putin government’s commissioning of war crimes sends out the message that the international community is gladly accommodative of these violations of International Law. An eventual result from such international complacency could be the further aggravation of world disorder and lawlessness.

The Putin regime’s latest civilian atrocities in Ukraine are being seen by the Western media in particular as the Russian strongman’s answer to the further closing of ranks among the G7 states to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the issues growing out of it. There is a considerable amount of truth in this position but the brazen unleashing of civilian atrocities by the Russian state also points to mounting impatience on the part of the latter for more positive results from its invasion.

Right now, the invasion could be described as having reached a stalemate for Russia. Having been beaten back by the robust and spirited Ukrainian resistance in Kyiv, the Russian forces are directing their fire power at present on Eastern Ukraine. Their intentions have narrowed down to carving out the Donbas region from the rest of Ukraine; the aim being to establish the region as a Russian sphere of influence and buffer state against perceived NATO encirclement.

On the other hand, having failed to the break the back thus far of the Ukraine resistance the Putin regime seems to be intent on demoralizing the resistance by targeting Ukraine civilians and their cities. Right now, most of Eastern Ukraine has been reduced to rubble. The regime’s broad strategy seems to be to capture the region by bombing it out. This strategy was tried out by Western imperialist powers, such as the US and France, in South East Asia some decades back, quite unsuccessfully.

However, by targeting civilians the Putin regime seems to be also banking on the US and its allies committing what could come to be seen as indiscretions, such as, getting more fully militarily and physically involved in the conflict.

To be sure, Russia’s rulers know quite well that it cannot afford to get into a full-blown armed conflict with the West and it also knows that the West would doing its uttermost to avoid an international armed confrontation of this kind that could lead to a Third World War. Both sides could be banked on to be cautious about creating concrete conditions that could lead to another Europe-wide armed conflict, considering its wide-ranging dire consequences.

However, by grossly violating the norms and laws of war in Ukraine Russia could tempt the West into putting more and more of its financial and material resources into strengthening the military capability of the Ukraine resistance and thereby weaken its economies through excessive military expenditure.

That is, the Western military-industrial complex would be further bolstered at the expense of the relevant civilian publics, who would be deprived of much needed welfare expenditure. This is a prospect no Western government could afford to countenance at the present juncture when the West too is beginning to weaken in economic terms. Discontented publics, growing out of shrinking welfare budgets, could only aggravate the worries of Western governments.

Accordingly, Putin’s game plan could very well be to subject the West to a ‘slow death’ through his merciless onslaught on the Ukraine. At the time of writing US President Joe Biden is emphatic about the need for united and firm ‘Transatlantic’ security in the face of the Russian invasion but it is open to question whether Western military muscle could be consistently bolstered amid rising, wide-ranging economic pressures.

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