News
Delta variant may account for 90% of cases unless action is taken to curb its spread – expert
By Rathindra Kuruwita
The Delta variant of coronavirus would increase in the next few weeks and could account for 90% of all cases, Executive Director of the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya told The Island yesterday. He said that the actual Delta infection rate was probably four to six times higher than reported.
Soon the average transmission rate would be driven by Delta, which was 40%-60% more infectious than the alpha variant, and current measures taken by Sri Lanka were totally inadequate to control it, Dr. Rannan-Eliya said, adding that already, one in 10 samples, sequenced across the country, showed Delta varian infection.
“Whatever the current infection rate is today, it will almost certainly increase in the coming weeks. Most of our cases (90%) are probably still the Alpha variant,” Dr. Eliya said.
Commenting on the recent drop in COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka, Dr. Eliya said that there were several reasons for that. He added that in almost all countries, most infections were never detected. Most people with COVID-19 were either asymptomatic or the infected person did not visit a doctor.
“At most, only 25-50% of infections are ever detected. In the case of India, the data suggest that fewer than 3% of infections were ever detected and reported. In the case of Sri Lanka, we probably did relatively well. If contact tracing was not efficiently done and most contacts were not tested, the number of reported cases could be lower, he said.
“Our test to case ratio (TCR) is now much worse than it was six months ago or even 4-5 months ago. All of this points to the actual infection rate being four to six times higher than reported cases”, he said, adding that the death rate bore evidence. The government was now reporting only deaths counted during the past 48 hours.
“I think the death rate may be closer to 100 a day. The death rate with COVID should be about 0.4–0.8%, and, therefore, if we are having 80 or more deaths a day, then the true infection rate could be around 10,000. Minister Fernandopulle said some time ago that actual infections could be several times the reported cases.”
Dr. Rannan-Eliya said that the countries that had controlled the Delta outbreaks at the community were China and Australia. They conducted aggressive testing. In the case of China, over 50 million tests were done in the province where the outbreak occurred, and as regards NSW in Australia, tests are being conducted at the rate of 50,000 a day. “With our current abysmal rate of testing and with the breakdown of the system of contact tracing and isolation, it is possible that Delta variant will spread faster.”
The government, under heavy Opposition fire over inclusion of a sex website in the Grade 6 English module, as well as overall education reforms, has decided to put on hold reforms in respect of Grade 6.
Cabinet Spokesman and Media and Health Minister Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa announced the government decision yesterday (13) at the post-Cabinet media briefing at the Information Department.
According to him, the decision had been taken at the previous day’s Cabinet meeting, chaired by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Dr. Jayatissa said that education reforms pertaining to Garde 6 had been put on hold until 2027.
The Minister said that other proposed education reforms would be implemented as planned. The Minister said that action would be taken against those responsible for the inclusion of a link to a sex website following investigations conducted by the Criminal Investigation Department and the National Education Institute.
The SJB and several other political parties, as well as civil society groups, have accused the government of promoting an LGBTQ agenda, through the proposed education reforms.
The Opposition grouping Mahajana Handa, on Monday, made representations to the Mahanayake Thera of the Malwatta Chapter regarding the controversial reforms, while urging their intervention to halt the project.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake yesterday (13) vowed to go ahead with his government’s agenda, regardless of the destruction caused by Cyclone Ditwah.
Emphasising the responsibility on the part of all to contribute to the post-Ditwah recovery efforts, President Dissanayake said that he would have complete faith in the public service.
The President said so at the launch of the re-building Sri Lanka project at the BMICH yesterday.
The JVP and NPP leader said that he wouldn’t take advantage of the death and destruction caused by the cyclone or use the situation as an excuse to reverse their agenda or weaken it.
President Dissanayake said that in spite of many calling for amending the then Budget, in view of the cyclone, the government presented the proposals that were agreed before the disaster struck.
The United States has announced that it will provide the Sri Lanka Air Force with 10 US Navy TH-57 helicopters free of charge.
The announcement was made by outgoing US Ambassador Julie Chung, who stated, on social media, that the helicopters would be transferred under the United States’ Excess Defence Articles programme. The aircraft are Bell 206 Sea Ranger helicopters previously operated by the US Navy.
US sources said that the transfer was intended to strengthen Sri Lanka’s disaster response capabilities, following the devastating cyclone that struck the island at the end of 2025 and killed more than 600 people. US officials have framed the move as a humanitarian measure aimed at improving aerial rescue and relief operations.
Showery condition over the island is expected to reduce from tomorrow (15th)
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Fair weather will prevail except for a few showers in the Uva, Eastern, Western and Central provinces and in Galle, Matara and Rathnapura districts
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Govt. bows to pressure, shelves Grade 6 reforms
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