Business

Constant ‘monetary financing’ had little backing from fiscal side, says Central Bank

Published

4 years ago

2022/06/30

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The majority of external obligations in the recent past were financed by sources like the Central Bank of Sri Lanka or through monetary financing, but fiscal consolidation through revenue enhancement as well as expenditure rationalization deemed necessary under such circumstances were hard to come by, R.A.A. Jayalath , Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said recently.

He said so while addressing a high level seminar held on the topic on “Confronting the Current Foreign Exchange Crisis in Sri Lanka: Lessons from Global Experience”.

“Thus, a significant amount of monetary financing by the Central bank has resulted in worsening inflation and exchange rate outcome”, he observed.

He went on to say: “In this environment, the tax cuts introduced in 2019-2020 with a reduction of VAT threshold was a grievous policy, in my view. Total impact of such a tax cut was over Rs. 600 billion and some put it at Rs. 800 billion. The resultant revenue drop was about 7.7% of GDP. The mainstream economic theory suggested such tax cuts would enhance money in circulation in the economy supporting growth in the medium to long term. The combination of pandemic-induced additional expenses and limited resource mobilization had widened the fiscal deficit. Tax cuts, low interest rates and high liquidity environment created higher demand for imports. In addition to that, the pandemic hit the brakes on tourism-related revenue which was the fifth largest inflow which had been normalizing after Easter Sunday attack in 2019. The pandemic related mobility restrictions around the world strengthened remittances via banking channels. However, this was short-lived as mobility increased after successful immunization programmes as a result of which the pattern of the flow of remittances changed. This was exacerbated by the fixation of exchange rate at Rs.200 levels”.

“Tourism brought USD 4.4 billion – 5.6% of GDP in 2019 – and it was reduced to 0.8% in 2020. Then the government decided to ban the import of agro-chemicals in April 2021 for health reasons and to promote eco-friendly sustainable agriculture. Although the transition towards organic farming seemed like an environmentally friendly sustainable step, the sudden shift was like a time bomb waiting to explode. Whatever the rational, the sudden transmission was extremely problematic due to lack of organic farming infrastructure, dependence on imported agro chemicals and lack of access to modern agricultural techniques. …….This disrupted the economy’s self-sufficiency in rice production requiring rice imports using scarce foreign exchange reserves. The nation’s external economic performance deteriorated and the current account deficit increased from 1.14 billion in January 2022 from 0.13 in January 2021.”

“When you look at Sri Lanka’s current crisis, we can’t forget the legacy the country has been carrying. Since post-independence, Sri Lanka has been a twin-deficit country except for a few years. The number of times the country has sought assistance from the IMF in its post-independence history shows the frequency of BOP challenges it faced. Today we are seeking the global lending agency’s support for the 17th time.”

“The country’s trade account was continuously in deficit. Import expenditure was almost double the exports. In the current account, it showed some relief mainly because of migrant worker remittances. But that was insufficient to cover the twin deficit. The majority of the country’s foreign exchange inflows didn’t come via non-debt creating flows like FDIs, but through further borrowings. On top of this fiscal balance or the government budget was continuously in deficit. And it was increasing due to ever-increasing commitments of the government sector. Thus the country’s primary account balance – the government budget before deduction of debt servicing expenses – was in deficit except for a few years.”

“Government revenue as a percentage of GDP was constantly on the decline since 1980s except in 2015, and 2016. Tax revenue was declining until 2015, and showed some increase in 2017/2018. But the budget deficit was significant. In 2019, it was around 9.6% and increased to 11.1% in 2020 and 2021, so both fiscal and Balance of Payments ( BOP) issues were at the heart of Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic performance constantly. In addition, heavy and continuous borrowings by the government to bridge the fiscal deficit over the years, has led to monetary policy and exchange rate management having limited effectiveness in managing the fallout of funding the fiscal gap. Subsequent to the global financial crisis and the presence of low interest rates in the developed market, Sri Lanka shifted its strategy significantly towards foreign market borrowings, exposing the country towards global credit cycles. So although we witnessed rapid economic growth, majority of them were coming from borrowed funds and at the same time they were invested mostly in non-tradable sectors or slow-revenue generating sectors.”

“This was reflected in the trade balance which was not sound and was deteriorating. The other factor that led to the rapid shift in our debt composition was when we moved to commercial borrowings, particularly after we lost access to concessional borrowings. Since we graduated to middle-income country status in early 2000, most of our borrowings were commercial borrowings. We didn’t have access to low-cost borrowings from multilateral agencies. And as concessional loans declined, the economy increasingly moved towards commercial loans mostly by way of international sovereign bonds (ISBs) and other bank and overseas borrowings. While the domestic /public debt level remained mostly stable, foreign debt became primarily the force driving the Sri Lankan economy.”

“Foreign debt to GDP ratio increased from 30% in 2014 to above 50% in 2020. Although Sri Lanka’s foreign debt to GDP ratio has witnessed a significant reduction over the past two decades, the change in the composition of high level of external debt has made the economy more vulnerable to a currency crisis in the past few years. Consequently, in 2021, the economy had net repayments to foreign creditors; therefore, the entire budget deficit was financed by domestic financing. It was kind of domestication of external obligations,” the Assistant Governor said.

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Business

Diplomatic thaw in Middle East sparks hope for Sri Lankan tea exports

Published

6 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea

Amid softening diplomatic rhetoric between the United States and Iran, a senior economist told The Island Financial Review yesterday that the stability of Sri Lanka’s tea exports to the Middle East, particularly Iran, would be maintained.

The economist, who closely follows regional developments, pointed to recent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. President Donald Trump as signs of de-escalation. Araghchi denied plans to execute anti-government protesters, while Trump indicated he had received assurances that killings had stopped and that the U.S. was “watching the process.”

“When geopolitical tensions ease, trade channels stabilise,” the economist said. “Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea. Any reduction in political risk is likely to support demand and reduce vulnerability in our export earnings,” he added.

The comments come against the backdrop of this week’s Colombo tea auction, where offerings totalled 6.0 million kilograms. The auction report noted “less activity from Iran and the Middle Eastern markets following recent restrictions in trading conditions,” reflecting the sensitivity of tea exports to regional instability.

Western Slopes and Nuwara Eliya teas showed mixed trends, with some grades firm and others declining. High and Medium Grown CTC teas sold around previous levels, while Low Grown varieties were easier by up to Rs. 20 per kg. Ex-Estate offerings remained steady at 0.74 million kilograms, with no significant change in quality, according to Forbes and Walker Research.

Low Growns, which accounted for approximately 2.4 million kilograms, saw varied demand: the Leafy category was quieter, while Semi-Leafy met with fair interest. Tippy teas faced pressure, especially in the Premium catalogue, where a lack of suitable bids left many unsold.

Selective demand was noted from shippers to the UK, Europe, and South Africa, while markets in Japan, China, the Middle East, and the CIS were reasonably active mostly at lower levels, Forbes and Walker said.

The economist added that while global tea markets remain volatile, any sustained calm in the Middle East could help restore buyer confidence from Iran – a key destination for Sri Lankan Orthodox teas.

“We are not out of the woods yet, but the signs are encouraging,” he said. “If the diplomatic tone continues to improve, we could see firmer demand from the region in the coming weeks,” he said.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Business

Call for stepped-up economic engagement between SL and Maldives

Published

7 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

Sudesh Mendis; ‘Potential in steppedup SL-Maldives business links

Sri Lanka is looking to significantly expand its commercial engagement with the Maldives, with business leaders calling for a more focused strategy to capitalise on growing opportunities in trade, services and tourism-linked investments.

Immediate Past President of the Sri Lanka-Maldives Business Council Sudesh Mendis said that the Maldives remains a high-potential market for Sri Lankan exporters and service providers, particularly in construction materials, food and beverage supplies, logistics and professional services aligned with the island nation’s expanding tourism and infrastructure sectors.

“The Maldives offers a demand-driven market where Sri Lankan products and services already enjoy strong acceptance, Mendis said, noting that geographical proximity and long-standing business ties give Sri Lanka a natural competitive advantage.

He said continued resort development, urban housing projects and public infrastructure investments in the Maldives have sustained demand for Sri Lankan goods, while services such as engineering, consultancy and skilled manpower also present room for growth.

However, Mendis stressed that logistical inefficiencies and administrative bottlenecks continue to limit expansion. “Improving shipping connectivity, reducing customs delays and ensuring smoother payment mechanisms are essential if Sri Lankan businesses are to scale up operations, he said.

Tourism collaboration was identified as another underdeveloped area, with Sri Lanka and the Maldives increasingly viewed as complementary destinations rather than rivals. Joint marketing initiatives and multi-destination travel packages could help increase visitor arrivals to both countries, Mendis added.

He also called for stronger private-sector leadership through regular trade missions, sector-focused business forums and targeted policy support to sustain momentum.

“With a coordinated and commercially driven approach, Sri Lanka can substantially deepen its economic presence in the Maldivian market, Mendis said.

Sri Lanka and the Maldives have maintained close economic relations, with bilateral trade expected to gain further traction as regional connectivity improves.

By Ifham Nizam

Business

News of IMF delegation’s visit to SL brings cheer to bourse

Published

7 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

The CSE commenced trading yesterday on a negative note due to profit-takings but later turned positive, when sections of the media reported that an IMF delegation is to visit Sri Lanka next week to facilitate the fifth review of the extended fund facility to Sri Lanka.

Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All Share Price Index went up by 41.42 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 25.28 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 4.73 billion with ten crossings. Top seven crossings were reported in DFCC, which crossed 4.4 million shares to the tune of Rs 701 million and its shares traded at Rs 159, HNB 250,000 shares crossed for Rs 105 million; its shares traded at Rs 420, Sierra Cables 2 million shares crossed for Rs 75 million; its shares traded at Rs 37.57, Seylan Bank 666,000 shares crossed for Rs 73.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 110.50.

Commercial Bank 300,000 shares crossed for Rs 57.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 225, Sampath Bank 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 46.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 155 and Ambeon Capital 1 million shares crossed for Rs 42 million; its shares traded at Rs 43.

In the retail market top seven companies that have mainly contributed to the turnover were; ACL Cables Rs 171 million (1.7 million shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 153 million (686,000 shares traded), Sierra Cables Rs 130 million (3.5 million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 109 million (703,000 shares traded) , HNB Rs 109 million (250,000 shares traded), Lanka Credit and Business Finance Rs 76 million (8.2 million shares traded) and HNB (Non-Voting) Rs 76 million (213,000 shares traded). During the day 132 million share volumes changed hands in 37857 transactions.

It is said that the banking and finance sector led the market, especially HNB and Commercial Bank, while construction related companies, especially Sierra Cables, also performed well at the floor.

The manufacturing and travel and tourism sectors also performed well.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.50/60 to the US dollar in the spot market weaker from Rs 309.35/50 Wednesday, having depreciated in recent weeks, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.

The telegraphic transfer rates for the American dollar were 305.9000 buying, 312.9000 selling; the British pound was 408.2980 buying, and 419.6162 selling, and the euro was 352.7488 buying, 364.1370 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne